A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[oldtimer]

On 10/19/2024 at 10:41 AM, notin said:

Same symptoms, maybe.  But not the same problem.

Yoshida had a torn labrum.  Devers’ MRI on his shoulders taken in mid-September came back clean, and he was shut down shortly after.  Hopefully the initial diagnosis of no surgery sticks…

Moon has said he would trade anyone on the Sox if we could get better doing that. I would test his resolve by suggesting trading Devers might make the most sense. His huge contract ($31,350,000 guaranteed through 2033) might make that hard, particularly with his defensive shortcomings. He chases outside the zone a lot but his hand/eye co-ordination and power provide results that other teams may covet. Will he age well? I personally don't think so. Even just clearing his contract might give us the financial flexibility to get solid right handed hitter and defender that would give the Sox more balance and also make keeping guys like Casas less of a problem from a balance point of view.

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

Moon has said he would trade anyone on the Sox if we could get better doing that. I would test his resolve by suggesting trading Devers might make the most sense. His huge contract ($31,350,000 guaranteed through 2033) might make that hard, particularly with his defensive shortcomings. He chases outside the zone a lot but his hand/eye co-ordination and power provide results that other teams may covet. Will he age well? I personally don't think so. Even just clearing his contract might give us the financial flexibility to get solid right handed hitter and defender that would give the Sox more balance and also make keeping guys like Casas less of a problem from a balance point of view.

As much as I really love watching Devers hit, I'm true to my word on being willing to trade anybody and everybody, if I think the return is better and helpful, or equal but addresses a greater need.

I also look at who we have to replace the guy(s) we trade and weigh the "step down" vs the "step up" at the position we obtained a new player. One issue with trading Devers is who plays 3B?

I've suggested Campbell or Mayer. notin suggested Grissom with Campbell at 2B. Meidroth might be an option, but for now, he looks like just decent non-40 man roster depth. 

Another issue is the contract. My guess is, 20 teams would not be able to pay his deal, so we'd be down to about 7-9 teams. How many need a 3Bman? How many even view him as a long term 3Bman, or do they see him as a DH, 1Bman or maybe a LF'er- long term?

Suggest a trade, and I'll respond.

I like the idea of trading Casas and moving Devers to 1B more, and with Casas being lower cots, we might get a better return.

(It doesn't bother me that Devers swings at bad pitches. It works for him.)

[Larry Cook]

I am going to believe bres-slow when he says he is going to as aggressive as the budget allows. 
 

I expect him to add 1 established starting pitcher and a couple high upside unproven bullpen guys 

[Hugh2]

On 10/18/2024 at 3:11 PM, mvp 78 said:

Some people have wanted him off the roster since the day he was signed. There are lots of moves we could discuss. This is the one being discussed right now.

Talked about trading Duran ✅

Talked about trading Mayer ✅

Talked about trading Story ✅

Talked about trading Wilyer ✅

Talked about trading Casas ✅

Talked about trading Masa ✅

Talked about acquiring players from the Marlins and Mariners (must be done annually) ✅

I don't think people really want to talk about trading potential rule 5 guys (i.e. bullpen arms). 

Spend the rest of the offseason figuring out a realistic trade destination for Rafael Devers? 

I get the point you're trying to make, but typically you make a move to get better.  You're not getting better by trading Yoshida, and he doesn't exactly hurt you as your 4th 5th outfielder/ part time DH bench bat. 

If we trade Yoshida we will have to do one of the following. 

A.) Give up a very valuable piece to get a team to eat his salary

B.) Eat all or most of his salary to get back something of value.

With A, you're not really doing much to make the team better only shedding salary and he's not taking up a starting position.  I get you could have roster flexibility without him, but the team has on it's roster and guys on their way up that can start and provide positional flexibility.  Also, Yoshida can hit, he doesn't have negative value.  I think the most important thing to consider about scenario A.  Is, even if you wanted to trade a high value prospect to shed his salary, you still need to find a team that 1.) wants Yoshida on their roster and B.) and can take on the payroll.  Also, how many teams are in that scenario and also willing to open up two spots on their 40 man.  This is all very unlikely. 

with B. You're paying him to play elsewhere, and I don't think you're going to get back anything of significant value even if you eat all his salary.  I think you can get a good prospect, but I don't know if you could get a top 10 guy, maybe someone who would be in the 10-20 range. 

It all seems just so unrealistic compared to trading for an ACE in terms of constructing a winner out of this roster. 

[Hugh2]

On 10/20/2024 at 1:58 AM, Deja Doh said:

Does anyone really believe that this current team will improve over 81-81 next year without a number of very good additions?  The team need upgrades at almost all positions. 

Yes

[mvp 78]

19 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Chasing down star players has worked for the Red Sox lately. They chased down a star infielder in Colorado and a star outfielder in Japan, and have since moved from last place in 2022 and 2023 to third place in 2024.

I wouldn't call signing a broken SS to play 2B in ST "chasing a star player." 

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I wouldn't call signing a broken SS to play 2B in ST "chasing a star player." 

Story was sort of a star by post-2019-apocalyptic Sox standards. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

On 10/18/2024 at 2:21 PM, notin said:

Luis Arraez didn’t hit with enough power to be a DH either, yet his team got to the NLDS anyway…

Umm, he played 111 games in the field, 69 at 1B and 42 at 2B

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I wouldn't call signing a broken SS to play 2B in ST "chasing a star player." 

I wouldn't either, but the Bloom Sox sure paid him like one. 

And we all know Story wasn't signed to play 2B, but SS as soon as Bogaerts left -- because they didn't want to pay Xander the same amount for those same years.

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I wouldn't either, but the Bloom Sox sure paid him like one. 

And we all know Story wasn't signed to play 2B, but SS as soon as Bogaerts left -- because they didn't want to pay Xander the same amount for those same years.

What a trail of blunders.  The last big move that was any good was the JDM signing.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I wouldn't either, but the Bloom Sox sure paid him like one. 

And we all know Story wasn't signed to play 2B, but SS as soon as Bogaerts left -- because they didn't want to pay Xander the same amount for those same years.

I agree that they jumped at the opportunity to sign Masa.

Story just kind of fell into their laps as he was unsigned for so long and Bloom felt like the deal was reasonable (it wasn't). If you go back and read all the blogs and news articles at the time, they all iterate on the idea that "it was a return of the big spending Sox" and "what a surprise" the move was and "what a jolt it will be for the clubhouse." I remember most of us on here were fairly nonplused about it and worried that they had just signed Xander's replacement. Well, it ended up being a move that really didn't work out in the end.

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What a trail of blunders.  The last big move that was any good was the JDM signing.

I guess it depends on what we consider "big moves." Giolito at 2/38 doesn't seem big enough. Needs to be 50M+ maybe? 

JDM

Xander extension

Nate extension

Sale extension

(keys taken away and big moves were few and far between at this point)

Story signing

Masa signing

Raffy extension

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We don't have a lot to discuss yet since no moves have been made, but DH is maybe the least important issue;

... by default, DH is the only position that doesn't affect the defense.

Yoshida might bug some fans, but he and his salary aren't going anywhere. His big league bat may stay in the rack in the dugout half the games next year, but Masa is not going to make or break the season.

Even if Brez finally lands Teoscar as his righty power hitter, they'll deal with him in left field part time and let whatever good glove isn't traded in center to cover the gap.

[notin]

58 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Umm, he played 111 games in the field, 69 at 1B and 42 at 2B

He spent time at 2b covering for an injured Bogaerts and at 1b covering for an injured Ha-Seong Kim (with some infield re-arrangement).  But when that team is healthy, he’s their starting DH.

And he has no power…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

He spent time at 2b covering for an injured Bogaerts and at 1b covering for an injured Ha-Seong Kim (with some infield re-arrangement).  But when that team is healthy, he’s their starting DH.

And he has no power…

... which is most Sox' fans problem with Yoshida -- the best contact hitter... by far... on the team.

Maybe Red Sox Nation, so conditioned to watch and root for a vastly overrated, all-or-nothing offense, just can't handle a batter who doesn't wow them with an occasional longball in between hot nights of swings and misses that fan their overpriced, shoehorned seats.

Yoshida doesn't do much to help a lineup of historical whiffers like Boston's. He'd be a better fit on clubs built on putting the ball in play to create and maximize rallies.

[notin]

11 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I am going to believe bres-slow when he says he is going to as aggressive as the budget allows. 
 

I expect him to add 1 established starting pitcher and a couple high upside unproven bullpen guys 

I hope so.

I like Nick Martinez as the SP.  While older than Burnes, Snell and Fried, he was just as effective last year and shouldn’t be a budget killer.  Of course, the fact that I realize this does mean 30 MLB CBOs do as well.

I’ve said before Tanner Scott should be the Sox top priority,  but I expect him to attract a lot of attention as well.  But the Sox stand a better chance if they can get Martinez on a reasonable deal.

A second reliever would be nice, but I can’t really isolate that one good candidate.  LHRP Andrew Chafin works for me, but also RHRPs John Brebbia, Jeff Hoffman, Clay Holmes, Jorge Lopez, Ryne Stanek, and Lucas Sims would also work…

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I agree that they jumped at the opportunity to sign Masa.

Story just kind of fell into their laps as he was unsigned for so long and Bloom felt like the deal was reasonable (it wasn't). If you go back and read all the blogs and news articles at the time, they all iterate on the idea that "it was a return of the big spending Sox" and "what a surprise" the move was and "what a jolt it will be for the clubhouse." I remember most of us on here were fairly nonplused about it and worried that they had just signed Xander's replacement. Well, it ended up being a move that really didn't work out in the end.

"Nonplussed" - perfect word for the last few years. 

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

... which is most Sox' fans problem with Yoshida -- the best contact hitter... by far... on the team.

Maybe Red Sox Nation, so conditioned to watch and root for a vastly overrated, all-or-nothing offense, just can't handle a batter who doesn't wow them with an occasional longball in between hot nights of swings and misses that fan their overpriced, shoehorned seats.

Yoshida doesn't do much to help a lineup of historical whiffers like Boston's. He'd be a better fit on clubs built on putting the ball in play to create and maximize rallies.

Masa has a team high Balls Put in Play % of 76%. The MLB average is 62%. The low for a Sox regular was O'Neilll at 47%, His 7.3 AB/K, also leads the team (3.6 league av.). He also had a team leading swinging strike % of 10.4 (Rafaela was worst at 28.1 for regulars). His overall contact % led the team at 85.4%. It's nice when the data matches the narrative.

On the otherhand, his XBH% and HR% were lowest for all regular Sox. 

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

"Nonplussed" - perfect word for the last few years. 

It was so much easier when we could just fight about Salty vs Montero for a week. 

[Maxbialystock]

On 10/20/2024 at 1:44 PM, oldtimer said:

Moon has said he would trade anyone on the Sox if we could get better doing that. I would test his resolve by suggesting trading Devers might make the most sense. His huge contract ($31,350,000 guaranteed through 2033) might make that hard, particularly with his defensive shortcomings. He chases outside the zone a lot but his hand/eye co-ordination and power provide results that other teams may covet. Will he age well? I personally don't think so. Even just clearing his contract might give us the financial flexibility to get solid right handed hitter and defender that would give the Sox more balance and also make keeping guys like Casas less of a problem from a balance point of view.

TANSTAAFL.  There are exactly zero teams out there who will give us what we want and take what we want to unload.  

The norm, in fact, is what happened with Sale and Giolito.  Even DD brought in Price and Sale, both of whom were pretty darn good in 2018, but afterward were very expensive nonperformers.  Except for Sale, who was terrific this year--for the Braves, who also received $17M from the Sox to pay his salary.  

OTOH, I also said that big payrolls are dumb; and Friday the Yankees and Dodgers, whose payrolls are 2d and 5th largest in MLB this year, will be playing in the 2024 World Series.  The other three teams in the top 5--Mets, Phillies, and Astros-- also made it to the postseason.   Also, the Yankees had the most wins, 94, in the AL and the Dodgers the most in the NL, 98.  

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

TANSTAAFL.  There are exactly zero teams out there who will give us what we want and take what we want to unload.  

The norm, in fact, is what happened with Sale and Giolito.  Even DD brought in Price and Sale, both of whom were pretty darn good in 2018, but afterward were very expensive nonperformers.  Except for Sale, who was terrific this year--for the Braves, who also received $17M from the Sox to pay his salary.  

OTOH, I also said that big payrolls are dumb; and Friday the Yankees and Dodgers, whose payrolls are 2d and 5th largest in MLB this year, will be playing in the 2024 World Series.  The other three teams in the top 5--Mets, Phillies, and Astros-- also made it to the postseason.   Also, the Yankees had the most wins, 94, in the AL and the Dodgers the most in the NL, 98.  

Sale was great in 2017, too. He even led the league in IP and Ks. (FIP, too.)

Remember, Schilling got an extension, and barely pitched that year.

Beckett got an extension and was later traded.

 

[moonslav59]

Would this make most of us happy?

Sign: Nick Martinez, Tanner Scott and Aroldis Chapman

Trade: Abreu, Wong, Crawford & Dobbins

For: RHP Bailey Ober (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) and C Ryan Jeffers (3rd arb of 3.)

Jeffers is a good power bat and bats RH's. He can be a bridge to Teel. Jeffer and 4 years of Ober at a low cost is worth giving up Abreu, Crawford, Wong and Dobbins.

C: Jeffers & Gasper (Teel in late '25 or '26)

1B: Casas (Romy)

2B: Campbell (DHam-Grissom)

SS: Story & Mayer (Romy)

3B: Devers (Meidroth)

LF: Abreu/Duran (E Valdez)

CF: Duran/Rafaela (Anthony/Campbell)

RF: Anthony (Abreu)

DH: Yoshida-Refsnyder (Hickey)

SP: Houck, Martinez, Ober, Bello, Giolito (Fitts, Criswell, Priester)

RP: Scott, Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Criswell, Fitts, Fulmer

(Wink, Bernardino, Guerrero, Mata, Penrod, Kelly, Weissert, I Campbell, Shugart, Booser

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

10 hours ago, notin said:

He spent time at 2b covering for an injured Bogaerts and at 1b covering for an injured Ha-Seong Kim (with some infield re-arrangement).  But when that team is healthy, he’s their starting DH.

And he has no power…

Regardless, he spent over 100 games in the field, Yoshi played 1 game in the field.

[Randy Red Sox]

12 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Yes

without major upgrades yes this team will improve -likely to about 82-80

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

without major upgrades yes this team will improve -likely to about 82-80

Actually, if we do nothing, we will get worse.

Jansen > Hendriks

Martin > Fulmer

Pivetta> Giolito

O'Neill> more PAs from Story (Rafaela to CF to replace most of the O'Neill PAs.)

Can we expect the returning players to do better?

The optimist might say yes, since most of our returnees are pre-prime or prime. The pessimist might say we saw enough career highs in 2024, so maybe a step back can be expected.

Here are the ages of our core players:

A: 28 Devers, 28 Duran, 28 Houck

B: 28 (29 on 4/1) Crawford, 27 Slaten, 32 Story, 25 Bello, 25 Abreu, 30 Giolito, 36 (FEB) Hendriks

C: 24 Rafaela, 25 Wong, 34 (in March) Refsnyder, 25 Criswell, 25 Fitts, 32 (MAR) Fulmer

Possibles: 20 Anthony, 22 Campbell & Mayer (Teel), 23 Meidroth

Only Story and Hendriks are A/B and 32 or older. The other 8 A/B are 30 or under. Only Ref and Fulmer are 32+ Cs. The other 4 are not. (One could argue others are Cs and not Fulmer.)

If we just add the bare min of Nick Martinez & Tanner Scott (notin's picks,)...

Martinez> Pivetta

Giolito> Criswell

Scott> Jansen

Hendriks > '24 Martin

 

[Larry Cook]

I think bres-slow builds bullpen depth by young unproven guys with high upside 

[Hugh2]

11 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

without major upgrades yes this team will improve -likely to about 82-80

That's an extremely pessimistic view.  So you guys must think very little of all the young talent on the team. 

Casas/Bello/Crawford/Duran/Hamilton/Abreu.  Sure maybe Duran had a career year but you must think very little of all the talent on this team to think the aggregate doesn't have the capacity to grow.  If you truly believe that then you must think that this team is years away from contention because baseball is a team sport. 

Do we also think very little of the crop coming up in Teel/Anthony/Mayer/Campbell.  The big 4? when is the last time the Sox had 4 guys top 25 all on the cusp of the major leagues.  Even if 3 of those guys busted and one became a star that improves the team by more than ONE game. 

Here's some food for thought. The 2016 Boston Red Sox who went from last place to first place was almost EXACTLY the same team.  They had a young core that got better and other players who had a bounce back year. 

This 2025 could be that team, and if they go out and sign a starter and closer, guys like Burnes and Scott they could be world series contenders. 

[Hugh2]

All I know is if the Red Sox trade Masa they will win 100 games. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

That's an extremely pessimistic view.  So you guys must think very little of all the young talent on the team. 

Casas/Bello/Crawford/Duran/Hamilton/Abreu.  Sure maybe Duran had a career year but you must think very little of all the talent on this team to think the aggregate doesn't have the capacity to grow.  If you truly believe that then you must think that this team is years away from contention because baseball is a team sport. 

Do we also think very little of the crop coming up in Teel/Anthony/Mayer/Campbell.  The big 4? when is the last time the Sox had 4 guys top 25 all on the cusp of the major leagues.  Even if 3 of those guys busted and one became a star that improves the team by more than ONE game. 

Here's some food for thought. The 2016 Boston Red Sox who went from last place to first place was almost EXACTLY the same team.  They had a young core that got better and other players who had a bounce back year. 

This 2025 could be that team, and if they go out and sign a starter and closer, guys like Burnes and Scott they could be world series contenders. 

Nobody knows what any of the Fab Four can contribute in 2025.

I'm pessimistic about 2025 for a few reasons:

1) We played .420 ball after the ASB, and it can't be chalked up to an abnormal number of injuries.

2) Health status of Devers and Yoshida.

3) From an 81-81 team, we lose O'Neill, Pivetta, Jansen and Martin. 

4) I think there's a good chance the brain trust surveys all this and decides 2025 is another punt year.

There are better times ahead, but I don't think they start in 2025, based on all the negative factors and uncertainty, and the "patient" approach we have seen. 

 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

All I know is if the Red Sox trade Masa they will win 100 games. 

Nah, Masa just seems like low-lying fruit on the 'how do we get better' tree.  But he's not, unfortunately.