Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't want to underplay the significance of a divorce on a player's performance, but Giolito is not exactly the first guy to have personal issues going on during a season, methinks.  Now he seems to be the purported poster boy for such issues turning you from Dr. Jekyll to Mr. Hyde.

He's also not exactly the first guy to struggle with moving to a brand new team midseason. 

[Bellhorn04]

Could have been the personal issues, could have been the changes in uniform, could have been contract year pressure, could have been pitching hurt, could have been a mechanical issue.  Too many possibilities.

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't want to underplay the significance of a divorce on a player's performance, but Giolito is not exactly the first guy to have personal issues going on during a season, methinks.  Now he seems to be the purported poster boy for such issues turning you from Dr. Jekyll to Mr. Hyde.

I get that, but you can literally almost draw an exact line from his marriage failing to his poor performance, perhaps it's injury related too.  Maybe he was so stressed out and started throwing harder with off mechanics that he hurt his arm and they're both related. 

I won't discount it. Giolito is only 30 and is a guy who finished top 10 for Cy Young voting 2 times.  I'm not counting on him to lead the rotation but I'm hopeful he can add value in 2025. 

[Hugh2]

All good points, perhaps a year off from injury just didn't get his arm right but allowed him time to get his head right as well.  Guy may be pitching with a chip on his shoulder and if he's healthy given his talent that might be a good thing. 

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I get that, but you can literally almost draw an exact line from his marriage failing to his poor performance 

I have to question whether we know the exact time his marriage started to fail.  We only know the public details.

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I have to question whether we know the exact time his marriage started to fail.  We only know the public details.

Yeah, it's not like a light switch.  The marriage was likely on the rocks before the day it failed. 

But I can tell you from personal experience the day it happens or the day you're served those papers it's like getting hit by a truck. 

[mvp 78]

Lots of Adames talk right now. Per Statcast, 152 career HR's only 115 would have been HR at Fenway. He's a RHB, but I'm not really feeling Adames. If they didn't have Story already, fine. Seems like too much money when they already have other intriguing MIF options coming up soon. 

[Randy Red Sox]

On 11/5/2024 at 11:23 AM, notin said:

No.  I was correct in saying Pivetta getting a QO would shock me.  I was most definitely shocked.

 

Also I said repeatedly O’Neill was 50/50 to receive one…

i still say in Pivtta accepts it will lessen what other pitching moves we make this offseason.

[Bellhorn04]

44 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Lots of Adames talk right now. Per Statcast, 152 career HR's only 115 would have been HR at Fenway. He's a RHB, but I'm not really feeling Adames. If they didn't have Story already, fine. Seems like too much money when they already have other intriguing MIF options coming up soon. 

Yeah, I don't think MIF is an area Craig has to spend much time on this offseason. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i still say in Pivtta accepts it will lessen what other pitching moves we make this offseason.

Sure it would.  But that doesn't necessarily mean it's a bad move.  For now I'll assume Breslow has a plan and knows what he's doing.  For now.

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Lots of Adames talk right now. Per Statcast, 152 career HR's only 115 would have been HR at Fenway. He's a RHB, but I'm not really feeling Adames. If they didn't have Story already, fine. Seems like too much money when they already have other intriguing MIF options coming up soon. 

Don't understand this move at all. It could only be to play at 3rd and moving Raffy, surely?

 

Doesn't fit as a move and I can't see us paying him what he'd want. 

 

Smells like ********.

[Hitch]

43 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i still say in Pivtta accepts it will lessen what other pitching moves we make this offseason.

I'm becoming more and more convinced that Pivetta is going to reject it. Apparently his market is pretty robust. There are even rumours doing the rounds of 3 at $55-60m. Seems madness to me, but durability and strike throwers doesn't come cheap these days, even with that ERA.

 

If Breslow has called it right it opens up Tesocar without getting penalised. 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Don't understand this move at all. It could only be to play at 3rd and moving Raffy, surely?

 

Doesn't fit as a move and I can't see us paying him what he'd want. 

 

Smells like ********.

I think they just saw a FA RHB and said "that's the guy." 

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I think they just saw a FA RHB and said "that's the guy." 

Feels very much that way.

 

Teoscar seems very much to be the power righty they want. If only we'd had a chance to get that guy in last year...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just like the same divorce/changing team excuses last winter, posters again conveniently ignore Giolito's bad 2022 when he had a 4.90 ERA for just Chicago, gave up more hits in less innings than '23 and had a worse overall WHIP.

At least Lucas didn't lead the league in home runs allowed, like he did in '23 -- hey, when he finally joins Boston's rotation this season, we'll have two starters wearing HR crowns from the past two years!

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Just like the same divorce/changing team excuses last winter, posters again conveniently ignore Giolito's bad 2022 when he had a 4.90 ERA for just Chicago, gave up more hits in less innings than '23 and had a worse overall WHIP.

His ex was nagging him extra hard that year. That's why he struggled. 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Just like the same divorce/changing team excuses last winter, posters again conveniently ignore Giolito's bad 2022 when he had a 4.90 ERA for just Chicago, gave up more hits in less innings than '23 and had a worse overall WHIP.

At least Lucas didn't lead the league in home runs allowed, like he did in '23 -- hey, when he finally joins Boston's rotation this season, we'll have two starters wearing HR crowns from the past two years!

No one is ignoring, Sale was bad during stretches too when he wasn't hurt, as have a lot of guys at various points in their career.  You also can't ignore the fact he was a Cy Young candidate who pitched like an ACE 3 years in a row, and his 2022 was also helped out by having the WORSE defense in the league behind him. 

Yes you're correct, you can't ignore that, there's just another side to the equation too.  It's not a crime to say a 30 year old who was once in ace may be talented and could get there again. 

[Hugh2]

Man you guys are tough, I remember how badly people (myself included) were received around here by suggesting Chris Sale might pitch like an ACE again one day.  And guess what.....

 

Yeah, not saying he's Chris Sale, it's a crude analogy, I'm just not convinced he's a dud quiet yet. 

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

No one is ignoring, Sale was bad during stretches too when he wasn't hurt, as have a lot of guys at various points in their career.  You also can't ignore the fact he was a Cy Young candidate who pitched like an ACE 3 years in a row, and his 2022 was also helped out by having the WORSE defense in the league behind him. 

Yes you're correct, you can't ignore that, there's just another side to the equation too.  It's not a crime to say a 30 year old who was once in ace may be talented and could get there again. 

Very well said, but I have to be honest: I'm extremely tired of wishing and hoping on once good to great pitchers regaining their glory years, and that included Sale for many years.

I know Gio was not acquired, coming off an injury, but now it feels the same, plus, there was always an element of "can he regain his form" to the signing. To me, Price was the last signing where we signed someone with previous season success, career success and no hint of injury issues. Are we going to go a full decade betwen his signing and the next one like that? (2016 to 2025 is 10 seasons.)

Sale and Nate came close, but both had injury issues.

Richards, Kluber, Paxton and to a lesser extent Wacha and Hill were the same. Martin Perez was never great, and his best season came after he left Boston. Now, we are trying it with pen signings like Hendriks and Fulmer.

I'm just tire of it.

[Larry Cook]

The Red Sox already have a vast collection of #3 and #4 type pitchers !!!! 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Yes you're correct, you can't ignore that, there's just another side to the equation too.  It's not a crime to say a 30 year old who was once in ace may be talented and could get there again. 

We're not saying Giolito can't be good again, but my point from the day of his signing is that he didn't just have a bad month or two at the end of 2023. He had overall bad stats for two straight years -- 2022 and 2023.

And the worst part for the Red Sox -- who have recruited and paid starting pitchers for less than market prices for over half a decade now -- is that they gave Giolito a top rate to sign... and didn't even get what they paid for.

[notin]

8 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Just like the same divorce/changing team excuses last winter, posters again conveniently ignore Giolito's bad 2022 when he had a 4.90 ERA for just Chicago, gave up more hits in less innings than '23 and had a worse overall WHIP.

At least Lucas didn't lead the league in home runs allowed, like he did in '23 -- hey, when he finally joins Boston's rotation this season, we'll have two starters wearing HR crowns from the past two years!

He was also one of the best pitchers in MLB from 2019-2021.  I’d be surprised if he returned to that level, but we’ve all seen crazier comebacks recently…

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

The Red Sox already have a vast collection of #3 and #4 type pitchers !!!! 

With all the injuries we keep having, it's nice to have five #3-4's, but I totally agree.

We need a #1 or solid #2 to go along with Houck and the five 3-4 types.

[Hugh2]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Very well said, but I have to be honest: I'm extremely tired of wishing and hoping on once good to great pitchers regaining their glory years, and that included Sale for many years.

I know Gio was not acquired, coming off an injury, but now it feels the same, plus, there was always an element of "can he regain his form" to the signing. To me, Price was the last signing where we signed someone with previous season success, career success and no hint of injury issues. Are we going to go a full decade betwen his signing and the next one like that? (2016 to 2025 is 10 seasons.)

Sale and Nate came close, but both had injury issues.

Richards, Kluber, Paxton and to a lesser extent Wacha and Hill were the same. Martin Perez was never great, and his best season came after he left Boston. Now, we are trying it with pen signings like Hendriks and Fulmer.

I'm just tire of it.

Yeah I’m pretty sick of it too, that’s why I say things like “I hope they sign xyz” which this offseason is Burnes/Fried, 

but he’s on the roster, so I’m going to hope he gets his head right and returns to form.  I truly believe his problems are mental and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s really good next year.  But banking on him certainly wouldn’t be my first, second, third, or even fourth choice.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Yeah I’m pretty sick of it too, that’s why I say things like “I hope they sign xyz” which this offseason is Burnes/Fried, 

but he’s on the roster, so I’m going to hope he gets his head right and returns to form.  I truly believe his problems are mental and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s really good next year.  But banking on him certainly wouldn’t be my first, second, third, or even fourth choice.

Well said, again, and I'm with you all the way on needing to add to the top of the rotation. I'm also for adding two, not one and moving Crawford or someone else to the pen/long relief role, we need as well.

I've been following the Sox for over 5 decades, and I don't think a single offseason went by without me hoping we added a top SP'er.

I despise the idea of building a rotation by trying to slightly improve on your 3rd, 4th or 5th start. Add to the top and move everyone else down one notch by attrition. 

I've gotten the point of being disappointed every winter, that the line between hoping and banging my head on the wall, feels the same.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I've been following the Sox for over 5 decades, and I don't think a single offseason went by without me hoping we added a top SP'er.

I despise the idea of building a rotation by trying to slightly improve on your 3rd, 4th or 5th start. Add to the top and move everyone else down one notch by attrition. 

Everything, every team, flows from the top of the rotation. 

It doesn't matter if you're trying to advance in the postseason or trying to advance out of last place; it all starts with starters.

That's why it's baffling whenever someone posts -- in any year -- "this isn't the right time to add an ace pitcher" or "we don't want to waste him." 

It's always the right time, and he's never wasted. The only thing wasted is the fans' time watching a group of #3s and #4s all year instead...

That's also why when the Red Sox acquired Schilling to pair with Martinez, who fronted Wakefield, Lowe, and Arroyo, it formed the starting rotation for the best Boston second-place team this century.

[Bellhorn04]

11 hours ago, notin said:

He was also one of the best pitchers in MLB from 2019-2021.  I’d be surprised if he returned to that level, but we’ve all seen crazier comebacks recently…

Giolito's career has been wildly up and down and in total is mediocrity personified.  He has a career ERA of 4.43, FIP of 4.44 and ERA+ of 98.   

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Giolito's career has been wildly up and down and in total is mediocrity personified.  He has a career ERA of 4.43, FIP of 4.44 and ERA+ of 98.   

I was perplexed they risked letting him opt out if he had a good year. But your research shows they weren't worried.

Now even if he has great year in '25, his two-year stint averages out to mediocrity...

... unless evaluated by the same scale as math test scores; in that case, 100 + 0 divided by 2 = 50 (still a failing grade, especially for a combined $38.5 million -- but if Boston really likes Giolito, they can keep him for another $19 mil or so for '26).

[Larry Cook]

Starting pitching on the 40 man roster: 

1.) Houk (age 28) right handed.

2.) bello (age 25) right handed. 
3.) QO (nov 19) pivetta (age 31) right handed. 
4.) Crawford (age 28) right handed. 
5.) giolito (age 30) right handed. 
6.) Criswell (age 28) right handed. 
7.) fits (age 24) right handed. 
8.) preister (age 24) right handed. 
9.) winkleman (age 22) right handed. 
10.) mata (age 25) right handed. 
11.) perales (age 21) right handed. 
 

Very young and very right handed. 

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think it matters much if your rotation is all right handed.

The Dodgers just won the title with a postseason pitching staff consisting of 3 right handed starters, and a small army of relievers.