Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Houck has a 3.3 bWAR and 3.6 fWAR.  Those are pretty much textbook solid #2 values.

About 2.0 is average, and a #3 is average. 

 

I don't see him replicating his early season run again. He reminds me of a Nate Eovaldi type. He's a guy that can push it to be a near TOTR guy for small stretches, but really peaks at a 2 if things are going well. A lot of volatility though. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't see him replicating his early season run again. He reminds me of a Nate Eovaldi type. He's a guy that can push it to be a near TOTR guy for small stretches, but really peaks at a 2 if things are going well. A lot of volatility though. 

Yes.

He's been a 3-5 before this year, a 1-2 over the first 6 weeks and a #3 since. I'd say 3 is the safe slot.

[Nick]

Moon I don't see Giolito in your budget. Surely he will exercise his player option. We paid the guy $35M for 1 year, assuming he is ready to go on 4/1.

 

Good start Brez.

[mvp 78]

35 minutes ago, Nick said:

Moon I don't see Giolito in your budget. Surely he will exercise his player option. We paid the guy $35M for 1 year, assuming he is ready to go on 4/1.

 

Good start Brez.

He'll be here through 2026 IMO. 

[Nick]

Baseball America updated its Top 100 list Tuesday and it has Red Sox center field prospect Roman Anthony ranked No. 2 overall. Boston landed six players on the list. Shortstop Marcelo Mayer is ranked 11th. Center fielder/shortstop Kristian Campbell is ranked No. 25 and catcher Kyle Teel is No. 26.  Outfielder Braden Montgomery, Boston’s 2024 first round pick, is ranked No. 61. Shortstop Franklin Arias is No. 94.

Good news. Unfortunately no pitcher. 

 

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Nick said:

Moon I don't see Giolito in your budget. Surely he will exercise his player option. We paid the guy $35M for 1 year, assuming he is ready to go on 4/1.

 

Good start Brez.

Nice catch. I was going to list option players, later and forgot.

That brings out total to about $180M counting all the player benefits and scrubs/arbs.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Nick said:

Baseball America updated its Top 100 list Tuesday and it has Red Sox center field prospect Roman Anthony ranked No. 2 overall. Boston landed six players on the list. Shortstop Marcelo Mayer is ranked 11th. Center fielder/shortstop Kristian Campbell is ranked No. 25 and catcher Kyle Teel is No. 26.  Outfielder Braden Montgomery, Boston’s 2024 first round pick, is ranked No. 61. Shortstop Franklin Arias is No. 94.

Good news. Unfortunately no pitcher. 

 

 

Nice!

I wasn't expecting Arias until next year's rankings.

Campbell passing Teel is telling.

[Nick]

4 in top 26 is pretty damn amazing. Help is on the way!!! lol

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Nick said:

4 in top 26 is pretty damn amazing. Help is on the way!!! lol

Yes, all 4 might be ML ready at some point in 2025. A couple might be held back until 2026, but yes!

Too bad, none are pitchers.

Time to trade bats for arms.

[Hugh2]

With graduations soon Roman could be #1 this offseason.

A healthy Perales likely makes this list.  Still, 6 top 100’s are impressive.

all position players, with many mlb positions already filled with young talent.

its almost as if…….theres nothing left to do but spend money on pitching.

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, all 4 might be ML ready at some point in 2025. A couple might be held back until 2026, but yes!

Too bad, none are pitchers.

Time to trade bats for arms.

Baring injury or regression, I don’t see how any of those 4 don’t debut at some point in 2025. 

[moonslav59]

I think our 13 everyday players are pretty good. I’m not sure all 4 are called up before Sept 1.

i think the years of service matters

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think our 13 everyday players are pretty good. I’m not sure all 4 are called up before Sept 1.

i think the years of service matters

Who’s still in the minors September 1st next year? Baring injury.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Who’s still in the minors September 1st next year? Baring injury.

We get 1 everyday player callup on Sept 1st. I'm not sure if those call-ups "start the service time clock" anymore, but my guess is one will get the call, then.

I think Mayer will be given every opportunity to win the SS or 2B job in ST'ing. I'm not sure he's given a tie-breaker status with DHam and Grissom, but maybe Grissom, yes.

I think Anthony is the most ML ready, but with an OF of Duran-Rafaela-Abreu, I'm not sure they feel a need to rush him up and start the clock. He bats LH'd, and the 3rd best overall OF'er is the RHB Rafaela. If refsnyder does not retire, we'll have to trade someone, or play Rafaela at middle IF to make room for Anthony. That being said, I think he'll make the ML team by June or July, unless there is an injury to him or another OF'er.

I think Campbell has looked incredibly "ready," but he just got promoted to AAA and has not mastered a position. If Mayer and Story play 2B/SS and Anthony squeezes into the OF mix, where does Campbell play? To me, either he or Mayer will stay in AAA, until Sept.

Teel can wait. We will sign a defensive catcher to a min deal, or just go with Heineman. Maybe Teel gets called up Sept 1st, maybe not till next year. I'm not sure on this. Some say he is the most ML ready, but catchers take time to develop and be "ready" to handle a staff.

The guy nobody is talking about is Meidroth, who offers decent back-up options at 3B and maybe SS/2B. Not sure about 1B. With DHam, Romy (who can play 1B), Grissom and EValdez, I'm not sure Meidroth can win a slot, unless we trade someone, or we have 2-3 injuries.

I think the top brass will figure it out, this winter, or maybe set up a couple either or chocies for ST'ing: Mayer or Campbell. Anthony, if we trade Abreu. Teel, if we think he's better than a cheap back-up and we don't care about his clock. Remember, catchers often mature at 29 or 30, some at 31-32, so starting his clock early might not be a great idea.

We have many moving parts, and a deep bench, as it is. If everyone is healthy, including Story, and Ref does not retire, we'll have some tough choices to make, even without the big 4 knocking on the opening day door. I think we will delay some choices to keep the 40 man stocked up, until we know more. None of the 4 are even Rule 5, yet. I'm not sure when the last time we jumped the Rule 5 clock on a prospect, but none will be added to the 40, unless we feel like they will be playing nearly FT on the big club. We will NOT start their clock to have them in a utility role, unless they can get 450+ PAs in that role.

You got 1400 PAs at SS/2B and 2100 PAs for the OF. Assuming 100% health, I see:

650 Duran

600 Rafaela, Story and Mayer or Campbell (not both on the 40)

500 Abreu (sits vs most LHPs)

That's 2950 out of 3500, and is enough to give Anthony 550, if we play Rafaela at MI for 200 PAs out of his 600 total, or just give him 550 total.

How do start Teel 100-115 games? We can't play Wong at 2B.

Maybe we try to trade Yoshida.

Now my head is spinning from all the movable and moving parts.

 

 

[mvp 78]

Service time starts whenever a player is called up whether it’s April 1 or September 30.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Service time starts whenever a player is called up whether it’s April 1 or September 30.

Thanks.

Did they used to not count Sept?

[Larry Cook]

For the pitching, it’s like almost  everybody is over slotted.
 

1.) Our 3-4-5 rotation pitchers are pitching 1-2-3 in the rotation. 

2.) our depth pieces are now 4-5 in the rotation. 
 

3.) except for Martin and Jansen , everybody in the bullpen is over slotted. Many should be depth pieces at Worcester instead of Boston. 
 

this is all the result of injuries, lack of depth and hang’em Chaim’s inability to draft pitching 

 

this offseason, we need 2 top of the rotation arms and 2 quality relievers, preferably a lefty and righty 

we get that and our pitching staff gets reslotted properly and we are a payoff team 

[Randy Red Sox]

On 9/2/2024 at 8:59 AM, notin said:

But you don’t have to be that much better to get in.  The Sox are still alive.  Floundering, but alive.  They’re on pace to win 83 games.  Not looking the part at the moment, but is that enough or not to get in?

the problem is that if we squeak in with 83 wins Henry will think we are on the right track and refuse to spend in the offseason AGAIN !!

[notin]

13 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Who’s still in the minors September 1st next year? Baring injury.

Nobody.  Season will be over…

[notin]

9 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

the problem is that if we squeak in with 83 wins Henry will think we are on the right track and refuse to spend in the offseason AGAIN !!

Having seen the Sox spend and lose anyway (2015, for example), why prioritize it over making the postseason?  If the Sox actually get in, that’s a good thing…

[notin]

9 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

For the pitching, it’s like almost  everybody is over slotted.
 

1.) Our 3-4-5 rotation pitchers are pitching 1-2-3 in the rotation. 

2.) our depth pieces are now 4-5 in the rotation. 
 

3.) except for Martin and Jansen , everybody in the bullpen is over slotted. Many should be depth pieces at Worcester instead of Boston. 
 

this is all the result of injuries, lack of depth and hang’em Chaim’s inability to draft pitching 

 

this offseason, we need 2 top of the rotation arms and 2 quality relievers, preferably a lefty and righty 

we get that and our pitching staff gets reslotted properly and we are a payoff team 

If the Sox had simply kept Sale, they’d be in right now, right?  That’s one pitcher away…

[Hugh2]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We get 1 everyday player callup on Sept 1st. I'm not sure if those call-ups "start the service time clock" anymore, but my guess is one will get the call, then.

I think Mayer will be given every opportunity to win the SS or 2B job in ST'ing. I'm not sure he's given a tie-breaker status with DHam and Grissom, but maybe Grissom, yes.

I think Anthony is the most ML ready, but with an OF of Duran-Rafaela-Abreu, I'm not sure they feel a need to rush him up and start the clock. He bats LH'd, and the 3rd best overall OF'er is the RHB Rafaela. If refsnyder does not retire, we'll have to trade someone, or play Rafaela at middle IF to make room for Anthony. That being said, I think he'll make the ML team by June or July, unless there is an injury to him or another OF'er.

I think Campbell has looked incredibly "ready," but he just got promoted to AAA and has not mastered a position. If Mayer and Story play 2B/SS and Anthony squeezes into the OF mix, where does Campbell play? To me, either he or Mayer will stay in AAA, until Sept.

Teel can wait. We will sign a defensive catcher to a min deal, or just go with Heineman. Maybe Teel gets called up Sept 1st, maybe not till next year. I'm not sure on this. Some say he is the most ML ready, but catchers take time to develop and be "ready" to handle a staff.

 

 

 

I think it's the opposite, I think it's very likely that the Sox start Anthony next year, or he's on the roster after a month.  They will trade someone if there's no injuries.  Anthony will presumably be the #1 prospect next spring (Caminero who is #1 will graduate soon).  He's hitting very well in AAA and it's going to be very hard to keep him down if he's mashing in ST.  At the very least, if he's not starting until september 1st.  Something has gone horribly wrong. 

Mayer, I don't believe is going to get every opportunity to win ss/2b in spring training; a string of injuries can change a lot.  He's one of the top prospects in the game as a short stop, and the Sox are not going to move him off position.  Story will be given every opportunity as long as he's healthy.  Mayer, who has had his own health concerns also has not taken 1 at bat above AA.  They're going to want to give him a few months in AAA, but if he's performing I have a very hard time seeing him held down in AAA up to september 1st.  Unless he's injured again or not performing well 

Campbell might have the best chance, because he's right handed and he offers positional versatility.  Now the #25 prospect in all of baseball, almost no one has the helium he does right now.  He's already mashing in AAA not skipping a beat since his promotion.  If he spends a WHOLE other year in the minors.......it's because something went wrong. 

Teel is interesting.  Because on one hand due to need he could be one of the first to come up, but he might have the biggest chance of being up after September 1st as well.  He's struggled in AAA, but I'm not concerned, however it could indicate he may need a little time there before he's a finished product. 

 

I'm also re-reading your original post, I think I misunderstood you.  IDK why but I initially thought you were implying none of these guys could be up by september 1st.  I suppose the probability of that is greater than 0 but I think you were saying there's a small chance ALL FOUR are called up by then.  

That makes more sense, still, I can see a scenario where 2-3 are in Boston and somebody gets traded.  Between trades, injuries, and players breaking down the doors, I think we see all 4 next year. 

[Hugh2]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Nobody.  Season will be over…

Oh, is the season in the minors over today?

[Hugh2]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, all 4 might be ML ready at some point in 2025. A couple might be held back until 2026, but yes!

Too bad, none are pitchers.

Time to trade bats for arms.

or sign free agent pitchers. 

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Thanks.

Did they used to not count Sept?

I honestly don't remember. I goes simply by the number of games played now. 

[moonslav59]

I think it's all about Mayer's health. If he's fine in ST'ing, he has at least an equal shot at winning the SS/2B job as DHam, Grissom, Romy and Campbell have, right now.

I did say I think Anthony is the most likely guy to be called up first, unless Mayer wins the job in ST'ing. Both could start on the 26 opening day, but I think we'd have to trade Abreu (for pitching) to make it worth it.

I think there is no chance, unless Story is hurt on opening day, that Mayer AND Campbell start the year in Boston.

I think Teel will be held off the 40 man until September, at the earliest. He's not even Rule 5 until 2026. We may wait until next year to add him. (Campbell is 2026, too, but you can't keep him down, if he hits like this to start 2025.)

If I had to guess: 

1 makes the opening day roster (Anthony or Mayer)

1-2 get called up before Sept.

1-2 get called up Sept 1st.

Only 3 total, at most, see action w BOS in 2025. If I had to be on how many play before Sept 1st, I'd go with 2, but 3 is a close call.

 

[mvp 78]

There is no way Mayer is winning the job out of ST without playing AAA. At the very least, they are super two-ing him. C'mon man!

[notin]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Thanks.

Did they used to not count Sept?

Yes.  September call ups used to get no credit for service time…

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Yes.  September call ups used to get no credit for service time…

That's what I remember.

I'm not sure how closely JH & Co. are looking at the service times of our big 4, and I'm not even sure how players are given "extra years" or the 4th arb year, but my guess is, if the timeline is close to adding another year, we will take that into strong consideration on the timing of a call-up or addition to the 40.

[Bellhorn04]

33 minutes ago, notin said:

If the Sox had simply kept Sale, they’d be in right now, right?  That’s one pitcher away…

A Cy Young winner would help, for sure.

Mind you these Sox are doing their utmost to make even the loss of one a non-factor as far as making or missing the playoffs.