A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Hugh2]

I don't know, Pivetta is also a guy who's had a lot of ups and downs, and has been written off on a few occasions. Not really a guy who was on a clear path to a big free agent payday. I don't think 32 million guaranteed would be an insult in his case.

 

He's effectively a 2 WAR player, he's been durable and looks like he's at his best right now, he's going to get paid about $15 a year. players have a huge affinity towards long term deals, and why wouldn't they, wouldn't you rather know where you and your family are going to live over the next 4-5 years instead of the next 2?

 

Nick Pivetta has earned much more than 2 years, there's zero reason why he should take a two year deal, and given his history of health on a team that struggles with health I would find it insulting if I was him.

[Hugh2]

When a guy makes it to this point, the odds of him signing a team friendly extension is at an all time low.

 

Asking a guy to take a pay cut in either dollars or years to get that "security" is something you do when a guy has years of team control left. There's incentive for both players. Honestly, I'd rather just offer Pivetta a QO

[Old Red]

I don't know, Pivetta is also a guy who's had a lot of ups and downs, and has been written off on a few occasions. Not really a guy who was on a clear path to a big free agent payday. I don't think 32 million guaranteed would be an insult in his case.

 

I agree. Pivetta hasn’t been on Any clear path to a big payday in FA. He’s been good, and bad with the Red Sox, and the bad part sent him to the BP last year. He’s already been on the IL this year, and the season isn’t half over. I’d wait, and see how the rest of the season turns out, and then go from there. If he can get a big payday from someone else then good for him.

[Old Red]

He's effectively a 2 WAR player, he's been durable and looks like he's at his best right now, he's going to get paid about $15 a year. players have a huge affinity towards long term deals, and why wouldn't they, wouldn't you rather know where you and your family are going to live over the next 4-5 years instead of the next 2?

 

Nick Pivetta has earned much more than 2 years, there's zero reason why he should take a two year deal, and given his history of health on a team that struggles with health I would find it insulting if I was him.

 

No one knows how the FA market will play out next offseason as Monty, and Snell found out, and neither has earned the money they eventually ended up signing for this year.

[Bellhorn04]

When a guy makes it to this point, the odds of him signing a team friendly extension is at an all time low.

 

Asking a guy to take a pay cut in either dollars or years to get that "security" is something you do when a guy has years of team control left. There's incentive for both players. Honestly, I'd rather just offer Pivetta a QO

 

Giolito has had a better career than Pivetta, is younger, and only got 2 years.

 

Not to mention, look at what happened to Snell and Montgomery. That might have been a sign of teams being less willing to risk a bundle on veteran starters.

[Old Red]

Giolito has had a better career than Pivetta, is younger, and only got 2 years.

 

Not to mention, look at what happened to Snell and Montgomery. That might have been a sign of teams being less willing to risk a bundle on veteran starters.

And Gio only got two years from the Red Sox. I don’t know if anyone else would have done that.

[Bellhorn04]

The more I think about it, offering 2/32 right now is more than reasonable. The offer itself is reasonable, and the Red Sox would be taking on the risk of something bad happening.

[Hugh2]

No one knows how the FA market will play out next offseason as Monty, and Snell found out, and neither has earned the money they eventually ended up signing for this year.

 

No, but we know healthy starting pitchers in there early 30's typically get more than 2 years, there's certain free agency universal truths we can count on.

 

And WAR has been a very good predictor of free agency pay days with very few caveats (guys taking less AAV for more years and vis versa). Take almost ANY pitcher who has signed a multi year deal and divide their AAV by their average WAR and you're typiucally getting around $7-8 per WAR. Pivetta is about a 2-2.5 WAR pitcher. Depending on length of contract, he's getting around $16 million a year give or take.

 

With guys getting 10 years now, thinking he could get 4 is beyond absurdly reasonable. 2 years is an insult.

 

Reality is, if you don't want to give Pivetta at least $50 million plus just say you don't want to resign him, which is fine.....I don't. I'd rather look for ways to UPGRADE this rotation.

[Hugh2]

Giolito has had a better career than Pivetta, is younger, and only got 2 years.

 

Not to mention, look at what happened to Snell and Montgomery. That might have been a sign of teams being less willing to risk a bundle on veteran starters.

 

Giolito was coming off a season where he had one of the worse stretches of a starting pitcher EVER. How is this even close to being a comparable???

[Hugh2]

If I was a betting man, and we wanted to wager around here, then baring any injury I'd very comfortable say Nick is going to get at least 4/58 next offseason. He's not not going to free agency just because we want him signed, and "security" isn't going to suddenly become a thing now that he's only a few months away from free agency after being under team control for almost a decade.

 

Come on peoples

[mvp 78]

CAA Sports per B-R.

 

Offer him 2/32 plus a team option year, something like that?

 

That's the Wacha contract. Seems ok? IDK.

[mvp 78]

If I was a betting man, and we wanted to wager around here, then baring any injury I'd very comfortable say Nick is going to get at least 4/58 next offseason. He's not not going to free agency just because we want him signed, and "security" isn't going to suddenly become a thing now that he's only a few months away from free agency after being under team control for almost a decade.

 

Come on peoples

 

Only 4 starters got that many years last offseason. Not seeing that in the cards for a guy who is a perennial 4/5 starter.

[mvp 78]

No, but we know healthy starting pitchers in there early 30's typically get more than 2 years, there's certain free agency universal truths we can count on.

 

And WAR has been a very good predictor of free agency pay days with very few caveats (guys taking less AAV for more years and vis versa). Take almost ANY pitcher who has signed a multi year deal and divide their AAV by their average WAR and you're typiucally getting around $7-8 per WAR. Pivetta is about a 2-2.5 WAR pitcher. Depending on length of contract, he's getting around $16 million a year give or take.

 

With guys getting 10 years now, thinking he could get 4 is beyond absurdly reasonable. 2 years is an insult.

 

Reality is, if you don't want to give Pivetta at least $50 million plus just say you don't want to resign him, which is fine.....I don't. I'd rather look for ways to UPGRADE this rotation.

 

Starters over 30 that got more than 2 years last season: Nola, ERod, Gray and Lugo.

 

9 starters 30 and over got exactly 2 years.

[Hugh2]

Starters over 30 that got more than 2 years last season: Nola, ERod, Gray and Lugo.

 

9 starters 30 and over got exactly 2 years.

 

How many of those 9 would you compare to Nick Pivetta? I want names damnit!!!!!!!!

[mvp 78]

How many of those 9 would you compare to Nick Pivetta? I want names damnit!!!!!!!!

 

Snell

Stroman

Wacha

Kershaw

Maeda

 

Lesser than? Manaea, Woodruff (injury), Fedde, Martinez

[moonslav59]

To me, it looks like Pivetta's "stuff" looks nastier than during other stretches where he has looked goo and even very good, prior to the end of 2023.

 

Has he really changed?

Is he better than before?

More importantly, can he keep it going, without over-stressing his arm to the point of serious injury?

 

We'd all like to see how this season plays out for him, but so would it be to other GMs.

 

I'd offer him $30M/2 with some incentives, and a third year team option at $12M with a $2M buyout.

 

It's a risk, but we can't afford to lose pitchers that are doing well, for us.

[mvp 78]

He's been good since he developed the sweeper last season. I don't know if he can stay healthy because that's a question I have with every pitcher now.

 

Since 5/28/23:

 

0.953 WHIP

[moonslav59]

fWAR per PA x 100

.95 Devers

.89 Abreu

.71 Wong

.71 Duran

.56 Casas

.55 DHam

.54 Ref

.45 O'Neill

.26 Romy

.18 McGuire

.00 Story & Yoshida

-.01 Rafaela

-38 Smith

-.44 Valdez

-.79 Dalbec

-1.03 Cooper

-1.03 Grissom

[notin]

No, but we know healthy starting pitchers in there early 30's typically get more than 2 years, there's certain free agency universal truths we can count on.

 

And WAR has been a very good predictor of free agency pay days with very few caveats (guys taking less AAV for more years and vis versa). Take almost ANY pitcher who has signed a multi year deal and divide their AAV by their average WAR and you're typiucally getting around $7-8 per WAR. Pivetta is about a 2-2.5 WAR pitcher. Depending on length of contract, he's getting around $16 million a year give or take.

 

With guys getting 10 years now, thinking he could get 4 is beyond absurdly reasonable. 2 years is an insult.

 

Reality is, if you don't want to give Pivetta at least $50 million plus just say you don't want to resign him, which is fine.....I don't. I'd rather look for ways to UPGRADE this rotation.

 

Pivetta is absolutely NOT a 2-2.5 WAR pitcher. In his previous7 years, he’s been worth 9.5 fWAR/8.5 bWAR. He’s a younger Kyle Gibson…

[Hugh2]

Snell

Stroman

Wacha

Kershaw

Maeda

 

Lesser than? Manaea, Woodruff (injury), Fedde, Martinez

 

Don't you think the situations surrounding those pitchers was extremly abnormal? SNell was asking for $250 million plus but ended up taking a high AAV contract, Wacha had serious health concerns at the time, same with Kershaw, Meada is also in his mid 30's and on year removed from an injury.

 

Those might be better quality pitchers or many of them at least, but their circumstances are grossly different. Hench, why someone like pivetta may opt for the years.....because this may be the only chance he can to do so.

[mvp 78]

Pivetta is absolutely NOT a 2-2.5 WAR pitcher. In his previous7 years, he’s been worth 9.5 fWAR/8.5 bWAR. He’s a younger Kyle Gibson…

 

For the past 4 years, he's been a 2-2.5 pitcher. I think that's more relevant that him trying to figure out MLB at age 24. Including 24, he's averaging 2.1 bWAR for the last 4 years if he dropped dead today.

[Hugh2]

Pivetta is absolutely NOT a 2-2.5 WAR pitcher. In his previous7 years, he’s been worth 9.5 fWAR/8.5 bWAR. He’s a younger Kyle Gibson…

 

I should say 2, that would be more accurate. Still, with pitchers getting 7-8 WAR a year what does that add up to if a team is willing to pay him for 4 years? A lot more than $32 million I'd say, which is overall my point. Pivetta most likely would not sign a $32 million extension right now. I don't believe he would do that.

[Bellhorn04]

I should say 2, that would be more accurate. Still, with pitchers getting 7-8 WAR a year what does that add up to if a team is willing to pay him for 4 years? A lot more than $32 million I'd say, which is overall my point. Pivetta most likely would not sign a $32 million extension right now. I don't believe he would do that.

 

I think you're under-rating the risk with Pivetta.

 

It seems like adding the sweeper has been a big boost for him, but the sweeper is also reportedly very stressful on the arm.

[mvp 78]

Don't you think the situations surrounding those pitchers was extremly abnormal? SNell was asking for $250 million plus but ended up taking a high AAV contract, Wacha had serious health concerns at the time, same with Kershaw, Meada is also in his mid 30's and on year removed from an injury.

 

Those might be better quality pitchers or many of them at least, but their circumstances are grossly different. Hench, why someone like pivetta may opt for the years.....because this may be the only chance he can to do so.

 

Their circumstances are different and they are different pitchers. Those pitchers noted are BETTER than Pivetta and they got less years than some expect Pivetta to for some reason. I was just responding to the idea that pitchers in their 30's typically get contracts longer than 2 years.

[moonslav59]

fWAR per IP

.040 Slaten

.035 Houck (Leads MLB in fWAR at 2.7)

.032 Jansen

.024 Bernardino

.023 Crawford

.022 Whitlock

.016 Criswell

.014 Pivetta

.012 Weissert

.010 Booser

.007 Bello

.005 Martin

.004 Wink

[Old Red]

I think you're under-rating the risk with Pivetta.

 

It seems like adding the sweeper has been a big boost for him, but the sweeper is also reportedly very stressful on the arm.

 

Pivetta has already been on the IL, so early in the season.

[mvp 78]

I should say 2, that would be more accurate. Still, with pitchers getting 7-8 WAR a year what does that add up to if a team is willing to pay him for 4 years? A lot more than $32 million I'd say, which is overall my point. Pivetta most likely would not sign a $32 million extension right now. I don't believe he would do that.

 

21 2.5 bWAR

22 2.5 bWAR

23 2.3 bWAR

24 1.1 bWAR (on track for almost 3 bWAR)

 

I'd say he's closer to 2.5 bWAR than 2.

[mvp 78]

fWAR per IP

.040 Slaten

.035 Houck (Leads MLB in fWAR at 2.7)

.032 Jansen

.024 Bernardino

.023 Crawford

.022 Whitlock

.016 Criswell

.014 Pivetta

.012 Weissert

.010 Booser

.007 Bello

.005 Martin

.004 Wink

 

I guess they need to make Slaten a starter.

[moonslav59]

Despite b eing demoted to the pen for a big chunk of 2023, Pivetta has started 87 games since 2021. That ranks 38th in all MLB. His starts missed were not due to injury, except the few he missed, this season.

 

His 6.3 fWAR in the last 3.3 seasons ranks T66th. (This includes some games in relief.)

 

He's probably been better than most team's #3 SP and better than quite a few teams' #2.

 

Ideally, he'd be our #4 or #5, but that is hard to arrange without adding another arm of two.

[moonslav59]

I guess they need to make Slaten a starter.

 

Knowing us, that might happen, someday.

 

Bernardino, too.

 

LOL