A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[sk7326]

It's not "low-budget" they are mid. They are Colorado Rockies East. They'll spend on a few players here and there, but cheapen out elsewhere. The days of the Sox being at the top of the payroll mountain are long gone.

 

I think the likelihood they participate at the top end of free agency - especially where we are dealing with 30+ year olds - is low with a few targeted exceptions. But I do think they will be aggressive and spend decently on retaining their better young players ... and guys they land in trade. If they are at the top of the payroll mountain, it will be because they have a lot of really good talent in their mid 20s.

[Bellhorn04]

I'll take whatever wins I can get after an offseason of nothingburger signings and getting kicked in the nuts by ownership.

 

Looks like there may have been one wicked good signing in Bailey.

[Old Red]

Was the Devers extension an illusion?

 

Like I’ve always said he was the last man standing out of Betts, and Bogey, so it was more a necessity. If he would have come up for contract first he most likely would be with another team right now.

[Bellhorn04]

RIP Larry Lucchino. A big part of the team's 21st century success.

[moonslav59]

It's not "low-budget" they are mid. They are Colorado Rockies East. They'll spend on a few players here and there, but cheapen out elsewhere. The days of the Sox being at the top of the payroll mountain are long gone.

 

Yes, mid level, which is still a step down, but not low budget.

 

Maybe, someday we get back to top 6 or 7, but there are some (newer) big spenders in MLB, now.

 

Since March 2022 (2 year period:)

 

$313/10 Devers

$140/6 Story

$90/5 Yoshida (plus posting fee of over $10M)

$55/6 Bello extension

$39M/2 Giolito

$32M/2 Jansen

 

We lost some big contracts and players, since March '22, but not many low or mid spending teams spent that much on new contracts in this time period.

 

(I'm not trying to defend JH & Co.)

Edited April 2, 2024 by moonslav59

[Old Red]

I'll take whatever wins I can get after an offseason of nothingburger signings and getting kicked in the nuts by ownership.

 

The vibes are definitely better after a few wins on here then they were most of the offseason especially since the Red Sox didn’t spend on any of the top FA starters.

[Old Red]

Whitlock too. Breslow and Bailey had other ideas, and they just might be smarter than us.

 

Still early though. Have to see how these guys hold up.

 

Whitlock would still be in the pen if Gio hadn’t gotten hurt.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, mid level, which is still a step down, but not low budget.

 

Maybe, someday we get back to top 6 or 7, but there are some (newer) big spenders in MLB, now.

 

Since March 2022 (2 year period:)

 

$313/10 Devers

$140/6 Story

$90/5 Yoshida (plus posting fee of over $10M)

$39M/2 Giolito

$32M/2 Jansen

 

We lost some big contracts and players, since March '22, but not many low or mid spending teams spent that much on new contracts in this time period.

 

(I'm not trying to defend JH & Co.)

 

Plus the Bello extension.

[Bellhorn04]

Whitlock would still be in the pen if Gio hadn’t gotten hurt.

 

Quite possibly, but they did tell him to prepare as a starter.

[gojohn99]

RIP Larry Lucchino. A big part of the team's 21st century success.

 

Yes but not as beloved down here in Rhode Island... still RIP.

[dannycater]

Great man. He did great things with Sox. LL RIP

[Old Red]

Quite possibly, but they did tell him to prepare as a starter.

 

Just like a Wink prepared as a starter. The will most certainly a need for more starters as the season goes along as some will drop with injuries.

[mvp 78]

I think the likelihood they participate at the top end of free agency - especially where we are dealing with 30+ year olds - is low with a few targeted exceptions. But I do think they will be aggressive and spend decently on retaining their better young players ... and guys they land in trade. If they are at the top of the payroll mountain, it will be because they have a lot of really good talent in their mid 20s.

 

IDK, they strive to be Atlanta who is currently 6th in payroll with all their extensions.

 

Boston is currently 11th, but remains closer to the A's than they are to the Yankees or Mets.

[Old Red]

Plus the Bello extension.

 

Not that big of an extension. Casas will be more telling.

[mvp 78]

RIP Larry Lucchino. A big part of the team's 21st century success.

 

The guy who almost ran Theo out of town. Sox definitely need a voice like Larry these days though.

[Old Red]

The guy who almost ran Theo out of town. Sox definitely need a voice like Larry these days though.

 

Sam is not your man?🙈

[mvp 78]

Whitlock would still be in the pen if Gio hadn’t gotten hurt.

 

I think they would have still had Whitlock, Winck, Houck, et al prep for the rotation and Whitlock would've earned a spot ahead of Houck.

[mvp 78]

Plus the Bello extension.

 

The worst pitcher of the bunch since ST started.

[mvp 78]

Not that big of an extension. Casas will be more telling.

 

Casas' extension should be less than Bello's. 1b's just don't get paid all that much, especially guys that don't field all that well. If they went year to year with him for a few more years, I don't think it would kill the budget. Seems like Casas is looking at a sky high budget when I'm not sure he's earned it yet.

 

I'd offer 6/66 with a team option for a seventh year at 22.5M. Anything more than that is throwing money away IMO.

[moonslav59]

IDK, they strive to be Atlanta who is currently 6th in payroll with all their extensions.

 

Boston is currently 11th, but remains closer to the A's than they are to the Yankees or Mets.

 

True.

 

They are just $14M above the league average (spotrac,) but those big spending teams really warp the numbers. (I guess the A's do, too.)

 

We are $35M from second tier (#16 in MLB.)

 

Add $35M and we'd only move up one slot to #10 and still $22M from #9 CHC..

[Old Red]

Casas' extension should be less than Bello's. 1b's just don't get paid all that much, especially guys that don't field all that well. If they went year to year with him for a few more years, I don't think it would kill the budget. Seems like Casas is looking at a sky high budget when I'm not sure he's earned it yet.

 

I'd offer 6/66 with a team option for a seventh year at 22.5M. Anything more than that is throwing money away IMO.

It will be interesting to watch how this all works out.

[mvp 78]

True.

 

They are just $14M above the league average (spotrac,) but those big spending teams really warp the numbers. (I guess the A's do, too.)

 

We are $35M from second tier (#16 in MLB.)

 

Add $35M and we'd only move up one slot to #10 and still $22M from #9 CHC..

 

Hard to call #16 "second tier." There are clearly quite a few tiers in MLB right now.

 

1. NY teams

2. At or above CBT (#3 Astros - #10 Giants)

3. Under CBT (#11 Sox - #17 M's)

4. Well under the CBT (#18 ChiSox - #28 Marlins)

5. Embarrassing (#29 Pirates and #30 A's)

[Maxbialystock]

I think they would have still had Whitlock, Winck, Houck, et al prep for the rotation and Whitlock would've earned a spot ahead of Houck.

 

Whitlock has a better repertoire, no question. But to me Houck is a battler. So I couldn't be happier that both are starting and that all 5 have done well in their first starts.

 

As I keep reminding everyone--ad nauseum--the 2019 Sox, fresh off the best season in Sox history, also started the season on the West Coast and went 3-8--and basically never recovered, at least not enough to even make the postseason.

[Old Red]

Whitlock has a better repertoire, no question. But to me Houck is a battler. So I couldn't be happier that both are starting and that all 5 have done well in their first starts.

 

As I keep reminding everyone--ad nauseum--the 2019 Sox, fresh off the best season in Sox history, also started the season on the West Coast and went 3-8--and basically never recovered, at least not enough to even make the postseason.

 

Yes, you keep repeating that, but one reason the Red Sox got off to a bad start was because Cora didn’t have the team ready to play especially the pitching staff, which he ADMITTED, and learned from that.

[notin]

Casas' extension should be less than Bello's. 1b's just don't get paid all that much, especially guys that don't field all that well. If they went year to year with him for a few more years, I don't think it would kill the budget. Seems like Casas is looking at a sky high budget when I'm not sure he's earned it yet.

 

I'd offer 6/66 with a team option for a seventh year at 22.5M. Anything more than that is throwing money away IMO.

 

One of Casas' most similar batters through age 23 is Mark Teixeira, per B-R.com.

 

Fifteen years ago, Tex did get an 8 yr / $180mill ($22.5mill AAV) deal from the Yankees. By the time he got that deal, 29yo Teixeira was more established than Casas is, and had won multiple Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers. More recently, Freddie Freeman, a clear future Hall of Famer, was only getting 6 year / $162mill contract ($27.7mill AAV). Freeman was 32 years old, but had a Gold Glove, multiple Silver Sluggers and an MVP under his belt.

 

These are among the largest contracts ever awards to first basemen. So yes, they really don't break the bank anymore. Casas has age on his side, but also has less hardware than Evan White (4 yr $24mill contract with Seattle, now considered a bust). I don't see Casas breaking the bank. A six year deal like the one above would buy out all his arb years plus first two of free agency and take him to age his age 30 season. He certainly could wait it out and make more money, but an early deal like this buys him plenty of security, but might be better if it was a year shorter and allowed him to reach free agency before his age 30 season. A 29yo free agent just has more earning power.

 

I would agree an extension like this, but maybe 5 years before the option probably makes more sense for both sides...

[Maxbialystock]

Yes, you keep repeating that, but one reason the Red Sox got off to a bad start was because Cora didn’t have the team ready to play especially the pitching staff, which he ADMITTED, and learned from that.

 

Meh. He did have Sale and Price pitch fewer innings in ST because of all the IP the season before.

 

But what we learned that season is that Sale and Price were both sliding downhill. Both have been vastly overpaid since 2018. The real Porcello, the crappy one, also emerged and lasted just one more season (2020). Eovaldi wasn't much good despite the great 2d half of the 2018 season. ERod emerged as the new ace. And Kimbrel went to the Cubs in 2019--good riddance.

 

2019 was the season when, beyond any possible shadow of doubt, JH decided he'd had enough of paying the big bucks. So he fired DD and brought in Chaim Bloom of the Rays. However, JH still had to keep paying big bucks for Price, while he was playing for the Dodgers, and Sale, who went on the IL for several seasons.

[Maxbialystock]

Hard to call #16 "second tier." There are clearly quite a few tiers in MLB right now.

 

1. NY teams

2. At or above CBT (#3 Astros - #10 Giants)

3. Under CBT (#11 Sox - #17 M's)

4. Well under the CBT (#18 ChiSox - #28 Marlins)

5. Embarrassing (#29 Pirates and #30 A's)

 

Pretty good laydown except for #5. Rays, ranked 27th, have proven beyond any doubt that you can in fact do more with less even though their system has yet to produce a WS winner. The Pirates, ranked 29th, right now are undefeated. Their payroll is $83M vs the Rays $98M.

 

The A's @ $62M are the one bonafide embarrassment. So much for Moneyball.

[moonslav59]

Hard to call #16 "second tier." There are clearly quite a few tiers in MLB right now.

 

1. NY teams

2. At or above CBT (#3 Astros - #10 Giants)

3. Under CBT (#11 Sox - #17 M's)

4. Well under the CBT (#18 ChiSox - #28 Marlins)

5. Embarrassing (#29 Pirates and #30 A's)

 

I can agree with your divisions into 4 tiers, although spotrac has 11-19 over $128M.

 

According to spotrac, we are $21M from #10 SFG and $47M from #9 CHC. We are about $30M from being at the bottom of the 3rd or middle tier.

 

We are $60M from your 4th tier and $20M from your 2nd tier.

[moonslav59]

Whitlock has a better repertoire, no question. But to me Houck is a battler. So I couldn't be happier that both are starting and that all 5 have done well in their first starts.

 

As I keep reminding everyone--ad nauseum--the 2019 Sox, fresh off the best season in Sox history, also started the season on the West Coast and went 3-8--and basically never recovered, at least not enough to even make the postseason.

 

Some interesting career comps:

 

Pitch 1-25, 26-50, 51-75 and 76-100: RP & SP

.516>.653>.822>.830 Houck

.686>.605>.779>.923 Whitlock

 

AS SP: 1st PA, 2nd PA, 3rd PA

.566>.700>.949 Houck

.761>.660>>1.103 Whitlock

[Maxbialystock]

Some interesting career comps:

 

Pitch 1-25, 26-50, 51-75 and 76-100: RP & SP

.516>.653>.822>.830 Houck

.686>.605>.779>.923 Whitlock

 

AS SP: 1st PA, 2nd PA, 3rd PA

.566>.700>.949 Houck

.761>.660>>1.103 Whitlock

 

I could swear it was just last season when we all went round and round about whether Houck could ever get over the "3d time through the lineup" hump. As I recall, he did.