Red Sox sign Lucas Giolito

[moonslav59]

Giolito did get CY votes in 19, 20, 21. His season prior to the ASB: 112 Innings, 3.45 ERA, 4.29 xFIP. Expecting Sale to do anything but get hurt is a lot at this point in time.

 

I get that, but recent 1, 2 and 3 year numbers are usually better indicators of future success than 3, 4 and 5 years ago numbers.

 

I totally get the Sale risk factor. I went from calling him Chris Freakin' Sale to Freakin' Chris Sale. The one caveat is that his more recent injuries were not all arm related, and he did go over 100 IP, in 2023- something he has not done since 2019.

 

People want to point to Gio's first 18 starts of 2023, which is fine. Those are promising numbers, but so were Sale's last 15 starts of 2023:

 

9-6 team record

3.16 ERA

3.41 FIP

.632 OPS Against

95 Ks and 19 BBs in 80 IP

 

The guy still has promise.

 

I hope Gio can do well, but he's still a reclamation project to a large degree.

 

Here are his numbers by thirds of seasons, in reverse order, starting from the last third of 2023:

 

ERA/FIP (RED =4.40+ and Blue =below 3.50)

7.14/6.88

3.71/4.89

3.98/4.17

4.88/3.65

5.94/4.13

3.88/4.41

 

He's had an ERA over 4.88 in 3 of his last 5 thirds of a season.

He's had an FIP above 4.13 in 5 of his last 6 thirds and over 4.40 in 3 of his last 6 thirds of a season.

 

2021 (much better and more consistent)

3.19/3.73

3.61/3.73

4.04/4.03

 

2020 (12 GS)

3.48/3.19

 

2019

3.94/3.96

3.42/3.37

2.85/2.93

 

Edited January 2, 2024 by moonslav59

[Hugh2]

I get that, but recent 1, 2 and 3 year numbers are usually better indicators of future success than 3, 4 and 5 years ago numbers.

 

I totally get the Sale risk factor. I went from calling him Chris Freakin' Sale to Freakin' Chris Sale. The one caveat is that his more recent injuries were not all arm related, and he did go over 100 IP, in 2023- something he has not done since 2019.

 

People want to point to Gio's first 18 starts of 2023, which is fine. Those are promising numbers, but so were Sale's last 15 starts of 2023:

 

9-6 team record

3.16 ERA

3.41 FIP

.632 OPS Against

95 Ks and 19 BBs in 80 IP

 

The guy still has promise.

 

I hope Gio can do well, but he's still a reclamation project to a large degree.

 

Here are his numbers by thirds of seasons, in reverse order, starting from the last third of 2023:

 

ERA/FIP (RED =4.40+ and Blue =below 3.50)

7.14/6.88

3.71/4.89

3.98/4.17

4.88/3.65

5.94/4.13

3.88/4.41

 

2021 (much better and more consistent)

3.19/3.73

3.61/3.73

4.04/4.03

 

2020 (12 GS)

3.48/3.19

 

2019

3.94/3.96

3.42/3.37

2.85/2.93

 

 

For what it’s worth Giolitos wife hit him with a divorce right when he fell apart. This has me hopeful that it was never a stiff problem but a mental health issue. If he is right, or can get right he’s probably going to be much better than Sale will unless Chris manages to start 25+ games

[moonslav59]

I think they sign Paxton and Stephenson. And trade Duran and one of Jansen/Martin for a SP…

 

I could see us trade the "high priced" Pivetta and maybe Jansen and or Martin.

 

I think we'll keep Duran, even if we sign Teoscar (sigh.)

[mvp 78]

I get that, but recent 1, 2 and 3 year numbers are usually better indicators of future success than 3, 4 and 5 years ago numbers.

 

21 - 23

 

Sale: 151 Innings

Giolito: 525 Innings

 

Giolito's performance should be within spitting distance of Sale's, but he could lap his innings considering Sale's history.

[moonslav59]

21 - 23

 

Sale: 151 Innings

Giolito: 525 Innings

 

Giolito's performance should be within spitting distance of Sale's, but he could lap his innings considering Sale's history.

 

No doubt. I have never thought Sale will pitch the same or more innings than Gio.

 

I would project he at least doubles his IP in 2024. I totally get it.

 

His skill level has been a big issue over the last 2 years.

 

They both are reclamation projects to differing degrees and reasons.

[sk7326]

The thing with Giolito is that he is a workhorse.

 

Now, he is 29 - and his velocity has not dropped. But the strikeout rate has and the homerun rate has gone bananas. This is a case of whether Giolito and Bailey can fix what went haywire mechanically - because Giolito can still sling it.

 

Giolito has been a 4 win pitcher as recently as 2021.

 

Basically they are paying the sticker price for Nick Pivetta's production - with at least a low but plausible possibility there is a #2/#3 caliber starter in there. Obviously I want more for the rotation - but this is a perfectly good pickup.

[mvp 78]

The thing with Giolito is that he is a workhorse.

 

Now, he is 29 - and his velocity has not dropped. But the strikeout rate has and the homerun rate has gone bananas. This is a case of whether Giolito and Bailey can fix what went haywire mechanically - because Giolito can still sling it.

 

Giolito has been a 4 win pitcher as recently as 2021.

 

Basically they are paying the sticker price for Nick Pivetta's production - with at least a low but plausible possibility there is a #2/#3 caliber starter in there. Obviously I want more for the rotation - but this is a perfectly good pickup.

 

It's a short term deal for a guy that is a near guarantee to give innings. The bullpen fell apart last season because of overuse. Having a guy like Giolito instead of Sale helps in that respect. There's a little more certainty going forward.

 

I'd like to see Crawford and Pivetta stick in the rotation too.

 

Acquisition

Bello

Giolito

Crawford

Pivetta

[moonslav59]

The thing with Giolito is that he is a workhorse.

 

Now, he is 29 - and his velocity has not dropped. But the strikeout rate has and the homerun rate has gone bananas. This is a case of whether Giolito and Bailey can fix what went haywire mechanically - because Giolito can still sling it.

 

Giolito has been a 4 win pitcher as recently as 2021.

 

Basically they are paying the sticker price for Nick Pivetta's production - with at least a low but plausible possibility there is a #2/#3 caliber starter in there. Obviously I want more for the rotation - but this is a perfectly good pickup.

 

Pivetta is a workhorse, too, and nobody wants a rotation of 5 Pivetts or even 5 Giolitos. Well, maybe the pen might.

 

Look, I get the point. It is a plus to have innings eaters, as long as they pitch well enough to keep their slot, all year. (Pivett lost his slot for part of 2023.)

 

I'm glad not having to pray for Sale's health, this spring. I hope Giolito can regain his form. He was pretty damn good from 2019-2021.

 

I'm glad we have a promising young 2Bman with some real upside ceiling.

 

We've added some pitching depth beyong Gio, and more depth it always a plus, but I was really hoping on improving quality more than quality- just once.

 

Yes, Gio can outpitch Sale in 2024 in quality, but that is far from a given.

 

The more IP is pretty damn certain.

 

[harmony]

I think they sign Paxton and Stephenson. And trade Duran and one of Jansen/Martin for a SP…

FWIW James Paxton sat in the Mariner owner's suite Monday for an NFL Winter Classic at T-Mobile Park in Seattle:

 

https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/seattle-mariners-fans-were-excited-about-the-possibility-of-a-reunion-on-monday-when-former-mariners-pitcher-james-paxton-attended-the-winter-classic-in-seattle

[moonslav59]

FWIW James Paxton sat in the Mariner owner's suite Monday for an NFL Winter Classic at T-Mobile Park in Seattle:

 

https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/seattle-mariners-fans-were-excited-about-the-possibility-of-a-reunion-on-monday-when-former-mariners-pitcher-james-paxton-attended-the-winter-classic-in-seattle

 

Please, sign him quickly!

[sk7326]

Pivetta is a workhorse, too, and nobody wants a rotation of 5 Pivetts or even 5 Giolitos. Well, maybe the pen might.

 

Look, I get the point. It is a plus to have innings eaters, as long as they pitch well enough to keep their slot, all year. (Pivett lost his slot for part of 2023.)

 

I'm glad not having to pray for Sale's health, this spring. I hope Giolito can regain his form. He was pretty damn good from 2019-2021.

 

I'm glad we have a promising young 2Bman with some real upside ceiling.

 

We've added some pitching depth beyong Gio, and more depth it always a plus, but I was really hoping on improving quality more than quality- just once.

 

Yes, Gio can outpitch Sale in 2024 in quality, but that is far from a given.

 

The more IP is pretty damn certain.

 

 

The big difference is the actual Nick Pivetta more or less maxes out at Nick Pivetta's production level. Giolito's top end is much higher - and we don't have to stretch too far in the time machine to see it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Pivetta, at his age and as the most versatile pitcher on the staff, would be a fine addition to a good team. He has done well, at times, at starting, bulk relieving, even closing in the postseason.

 

Pivetta should be highly valued for a team sincere about rebuilding, but he may not be worth keeping for a bad team more concerned about budgets than paying market prices for good players.

 

However, it is hard to imagine his trade value would return anything more than a prospect in a salary dump. Unless he's part of a multi-player package, nobody is going to give up a young controllable starting pitcher or MLB-ready position player for Nick.

[mvp 78]

The big difference is the actual Nick Pivetta more or less maxes out at Nick Pivetta's production level. Giolito's top end is much higher - and we don't have to stretch too far in the time machine to see it.

 

We're just leaning on Bailey to fix whatever is going wrong with current day Giolito. Maybe it works? When Giolito is bad, he's Pivetta. When he's good, he's much better for sure.

[mvp 78]

Pivetta, at his age and as the most versatile pitcher on the staff, would be a fine addition to a good team. He has done well, at times, at starting, bulk relieving, even closing in the postseason.

 

Pivetta should be highly valued for a team sincere about rebuilding, but he may not be worth keeping for a bad team more concerned about budgets than paying market prices for good players.

 

However, it is hard to imagine his trade value would return anything more than a prospect in a salary dump. Unless he's part of a multi-player package, nobody is going to give up a young controllable starting pitcher or MLB-ready position player for Nick.

 

I think Breslow has been shown to be more of a wheeler dealer than Bloom. I think if the Sox aren't in contention at the deadline, a lot of guys including Pivetta and Giolito will be on the block.

[moonslav59]

The big difference is the actual Nick Pivetta more or less maxes out at Nick Pivetta's production level. Giolito's top end is much higher - and we don't have to stretch too far in the time machine to see it.

 

I get that, and am hopeful Giolito does max out in 2024. However, this matters, too:

 

2022-2023:

bWAR/ERA(ERA+)/FIP

 

6.0/4.33 (101)/4.22 Pivetta

3.3/4.89 (86)/ 4.70 Giolito

 

People talk about the great start of the 2023 season by Giolito as a sign he can still be very good, well take a look see:

 

Giolito in first 19 GS or 2023:

112 IP: 17 HRs/ 34 BB/ 117 K

3.45 ERA

4.18 FIP

 

Some long stretches by Nick:

2023:

97 IP (8 GS/20 RP) 13 HR/31 BB/135 Ks

3.05 ERA

3.27 FIP

 

2022: first 16 GS

95 IP/ 10 HR/ 32 BB/ 91 Ks

3.23 ERA

3.67 ERA

 

2021: first 11 GS

60 IP/ 4 HR/ 28 BB/ 68 Ks

3.77 ERA

3.27 FIP

 

(Larger sample size in '21: first 17 GS) is close to Gio's 2023 numbers, too.

92 IP/ 13 HR/ 42 BB/ 109 K

4.09 ERA

4.10 FIP

 

It looks like Pivetta has had some very nice stretches in all 3 of his last 3 seasons. All compare nicely with Giolito's stretch in 2023. The problem is, Nck has never done this for a full season, like Giolito did from 2019 and 2021, but that was 3 and 5 years ago. Do we really know Gio will return to that form for all of 2024.

 

That being said, I do like Gio more than Pivetta, due to his IP numbers and non stop GS'd, but I'm not so sure about his ability to pitch way better than Nick in 2024. Nick has shown some high level skills for 15-19 game stretches.

 

Some cherry-picked longer stretches by Nick:

Nick

'21: first 23 GS/ 4.20 ERA/ 4.17 FIP (124 IP)

'22: first 25 GS/ 4.24 ERA/ 3.98 FIP (142 IP)

'23: last 28 G w 8 GS: 3.05 ERA/ 3.27 FIP (97 IP)

 

Lucas

'19: first 25GS/3.20/3.20 (153 IP)

'21: all 31 GS/3.53/.3.79 (179 IP)

 

 

 

 

Edited January 3, 2024 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

If Gio maxes out in '24, they better deal him because he's opting out. Edited January 3, 2024 by mvp 78

[Bellhorn04]

If Gio maxes out in '24, the better deal him because he's opting out.

 

So if he pitches well we might only have him for 4 months LOL

[mvp 78]

So if he pitches well we might only have him for 4 months LOL

 

Yup! Don't buy a Giolito jersey kids. Sox won't be signing his next contract.

[Duran Is The Man]

If Gio maxes out in '24, they better deal him because he's opting out.

 

just another reason this was a stupid f***ing contract.

[Bellhorn04]

just another reason this was a stupid f***ing contract.

 

But it'll look smart if he pitches well, we suck otherwise and we trade him for something at the deadline...yahoo!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

just another reason this was a stupid f***ing contract.

 

I tried to point this out, but was not as eloquent as you.

 

Basically, if Giolito is good, he's as good as gone (unless anyone thinks Henry will pay more for him, a year later)...

 

... but if Giolito is bad, he won't opt out (because no one will pay him more than Boston's $19M to serve meatballs) -- but at least we'll then get to see him eat innings for two seasons.

[mvp 78]

I tried to point this out, but was not as eloquent as you.

 

Basically, if Giolito is good, he's as good as gone (unless anyone thinks Henry will pay more for him, a year later)...

 

... but if Giolito is bad, he won't opt out (because no one will pay him more than Boston's $19M to serve meatballs) -- but at least we'll then get to see him eat innings for two seasons.

 

Best case is he's pretty good, but not great and doesn't opt out. Then he has a CY caliber season in '25 when the Sox march to the playoffs.

[mvp 78]

But it'll look smart if he pitches well, we suck otherwise and we trade him for something at the deadline...yahoo!

 

Money for nothing and your prospects for free.

[notin]

If Gio maxes out in '24, they better deal him because he's opting out.

 

What if they’re in the postseason hunt?

[mvp 78]

What if they’re in the postseason hunt?

 

What's your definition of "hunt?" If they are 3-5 games out of the WC? If they hold a WC spot?

 

If the team is looking really solid, the young core is playing great and all the pitching is holding up, they could make a case to be buyers at the deadline. That's a lot of IFs though. It's more likely there are a few holes and the team is just not quite ready for a run.

 

If this team is in the same position they were in '22 and '23, they need to sell. Both times, they were on the outside looking in and the team was on a noticeable downturn.

[Hugh2]

If Gio maxes out in '24, they better deal him because he's opting out.

 

If He's pitching very well, and we don't trade him.....it better be because we are currently holding down a playoff spot at the end of July.

[mvp 78]

If He's pitching very well, and we don't trade him.....it better be because we are currently holding down a playoff spot at the end of July.

 

Qualifying Offer?

[Hugh2]

Qualifying Offer?

 

If he pitches well enough, he's a lock to reject it.

 

That pick might not be as valuable as what he'd be bring back in a trade (if he's pitching well). But the difference seems worth it to keep him (if you're a legit playoff contender).

 

If he'd accept a qualifying offer, you'd think he's not opting out of that contract.

[Old Red]

If he pitches well enough, he's a lock to reject it.

 

That pick might not be as valuable as what he'd be bring back in a trade (if he's pitching well). But the difference seems worth it to keep him (if you're a legit playoff contender).

 

If he'd accept a qualifying offer, you'd think he's not opting out of that contract.

 

Wow! We’re worrying about trades, opt outs, and qualifying offers already we haven’t even gotten to ST yet. 🙈

[mvp 78]

If he pitches well enough, he's a lock to reject it.

 

That pick might not be as valuable as what he'd be bring back in a trade (if he's pitching well). But the difference seems worth it to keep him (if you're a legit playoff contender).

 

If he'd accept a qualifying offer, you'd think he's not opting out of that contract.

 

I don't think teams offer QO's expecting the player to take it. I was just saying the upside of going for it and keeping Giolito is that you can get a QO. The trade return probably is better, unless you're Chaim Bloom.