Red Sox ownership

[notin]

I've posted before how I was horrified when Dombro dealt the system's #1 pitching prospect -- but of course he never made it, and Pomeranz was a key guy for the '17 division champs.

 

A few points: Espinoza was the first "next Pedro" but those Sox were fighting for first place and going for it. So that trade was more reasonable for a contender than a club that say, finished dead fifth in 75% of the last four seasons, swapping their best all-around positional everyday prospect; that Dombro deal, in retrospect, was also a prime example of how overrated the narrative was that he razed the farm... or how astute he was in knowing which guys to keep and which to sell high.

 

So… you’re crediting Dombrowski with knowing Anderson was going to get injured repeatedly? How come he lost that visionary aspect when negotiating with Sale?

[mvp 78]

Agreed. I think we have to roll the dice and hope Bleis shows some value, this season.

 

To me, I'm not even sure trading for a 3 year pitcher is worth it, unless the plan is to spend more in 1-2 years.

 

I'd look for 4-6 year pitchers or punt on the idea, for now.

 

Trading Jansen (or Yoshida) to make budget room for Monty would be okay with me, but it's kind of a waste, if we don't build support around him during his first 2-3 years.

 

Starting building this year for more spending next year? Will Henry go over the CBT again or will he stay under going forward? If he's willing to go over like other owners, no harm in getting the right guy on your pitching staff a year early.

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure how much other GMs value these guys on the Sox, but to me, these are the ones I'd look to deal for a pitcher with 4+ years of team control:

 

BTV Values

34 Duran (I can see why many do not want to deal him away.)

24 Crawford (seems counterintuitive to trade a promising young pitcher)

22 Houck (I'd rather trade Houck than Crawford, right now.)

22 Bleis (Would likely be trading at a low point in his value)

13 Yorke (Top of my trade list)

10 Schreiber

9 Pivetta (unless we can extend him)

6 Wikelman & O'Neill (deadline)

4 Walter

8.1 EValdez

3 Yoshida

2 McGuire

0 Martin (deadline?)

-2 Jansen

-66 Story

 

I would strongly avoid trading:

51 Casas

45 Mayer

42 Anthony

18 Teel

17 Grissom

12 Rafaela (Would consider trading him, if we keep Duran and get a solid SP.)

9 Winckowski

8 Abreu

7 Cespedes

4 Romero (let him try to build back value), Perales & Zanetello

 

 

Romero is probably just a Jed Lowrie ceiling. Tradable. I'd trade Abreu too. Zanetello? He hasn't shown anything yet. Perales? Bye!

[mvp 78]

No. It could always be justified by the end result.

 

For example, the Sox traded one of their best young pitching prospects in years in Anderson Espinoza for a solid yet unspectacular swingman in Drew Pomeranz. At the time, it certainly looked questionable. But in the long run, was that a good trade for Boston or not?

 

If Pomeranz flipped his 17 and 18 seasons, we'd probably feel differently about him.

[moonslav59]

I've posted before how I was horrified when Dombro dealt the system's #1 pitching prospect -- but of course he never made it, and Pomeranz was a key guy for the '17 division champs.

 

A few points: Espinoza was the first "next Pedro" but those Sox were fighting for first place and going for it. So that trade was more reasonable for a contender than a club that say, finished dead fifth in 75% of the last four seasons, swapping their best all-around positional everyday prospect; that Dombro deal, in retrospect, was also a prime example of how overrated the narrative was that he razed the farm... or how astute he was in knowing which guys to keep and which to sell high.

 

He did choose well on who to keep and who to trade. I'm not sure how much was being "astute," but GM are always bashed in hindsight, so it make sense to praise them when things work out well, in hindsight, too.

 

The sheer number of top or once top prospects trades was astounding, but I've never felt he "emptied the farm" or left it "barren."

 

I loved DD and had no issues with the choices he made to sacrifice some of the extended future for a nice 3 year window (that coulda-shoulda been longer.) The fact that we went from the Devers call-up in 2017 to the Casas and Bello call-ups in '22 & '23 with no noteworthy farm infusion beyond Houck has to fall, at least partially, on DD's shoulders. That being said, he did keep and or add: Devers, ERod, Bello, Casas, Houck, Crawford, Rafaela, Beni and Mata, Wikelman, Perales, Murphy & Walter (a large chunk of our best pitching prospects.)

 

Traded prospects (w top SP's ranking)

1. Moncada, Swihart

3. Espinoza, Margot

5. Kopech, Beeks, RanaudoCecchini

6. Guerra, Brentz

8. Basabe, Chatham

9. Dubon, Lakins

12. W Rijos, Marrero

13. Logan Allen

15. Light, Longhi

17. S Anderson, Buttrey, Jerez

18, The other Basabe

19. Acosta

20, Nogosek

Espinal, Gregory Santos, Aro, Asuage, G Bautista, Callahan, Pennington, TShaw (not a prospect, when traded)

 

Note: I am not trying to inflate the value of these guys traded away. Many were traded after they dropped out of the top 10 or 20. My point was to show the numbers of prospects traded away.

[moonslav59]

Fair enough. I was thinking they will not bring back much and have a better chance at improving their current trade value in 2024 than what we'd get for them, now.

 

As demanded throw-ins to a trade that nets us a solid SP'er with 4+ years of control, sure.

 

I like Abreu more than his current BTV value has him.

[dgalehouse]

It was a misunderstanding with the trade of Anderson Espinosa. Someone said he was the next Pedro. But they didn't mean Hall of Famer , Martinez. They meant Pedro Beato. So far, Espinosa has not even lived up to that modest projection. But we are still mopping up the tears that were shed when he was dealt.

[mvp 78]

He did choose well on who to keep and who to trade. I'm not sure how much was being "astute," but GM are always bashed in hindsight, so it make sense to praise them when things work out well, in hindsight, too.

 

The sheer number of top or once top prospects trades was astounding, but I've never felt he "emptied the farm" or left it "barren."

 

 

He traded a lot of prospects, but didn't do a great job of drafting and neither did Ben. The farm just slowly fell off from the Theo days. Even if Ben was here, it would have slowly taken a turn for the worse IMO.

[mvp 78]

It was a misunderstanding with the trade of Anderson Espinosa. Someone said he was the next Pedro. But they didn't mean Hall of Famer , Martinez. They meant Pedro Beato. So far, Espinosa has not even lived up to that modest projection. But we are still mopping up the tears that were shed when he was dealt.

 

He was a top 10 MiLB prospect that got injured. Unfortunately, the error bar with pitchers is very large.

[Bellhorn04]

The Espinoza trade was basically a deadline trade. Buchholz had gone down. The Sox were in position to make the playoffs but needed a starter desperately. Pomeranz was available.

[moonslav59]

He traded a lot of prospects, but didn't do a great job of drafting and neither did Ben. The farm just slowly fell off from the Theo days. Even if Ben was here, it would have slowly taken a turn for the worse IMO.

 

One could argue the farm started declining during Theo's last years, and he also traded away some top prospects, along the way, like Kelly and Rizzo.

 

The farm Ben inherited was not bad, and it had a few surprises outside the top 3 (Bogey #4) and top 10 (#14 Doubront, #15 Alex Wilson), and Betts, but it did not look all that great, at the time:

 

SEPT 2011

1. Middy

2. Kalish

3. Ranaudo

4. Bogey

5. Iggy

6. Lavarnway

7. Barnes

8. Brentz

9. Jacobs

10. Swihart

11. Coyle

12. Cecchini

13. Weiland

16. Britton

17. Vitek

18. Head

19. Pimental

20. Tejada

 

On DD's drafts: he rarely had top picks and did well with some picks:

 

2016

12 Groome was his highest slot with the Sox

51 Chtam

88 S Anderson

118 Dalbec

148 Shawaryn

178 Nogosek

298 Espinal

 

2017

24 Houck

63 Cole Brannen

491 Crawford

 

2018

26 Casas

64 Decker

160 T Ward

220 Duran

 

2019

43 (2nd rd) C Cannon

69 M Lugo

107 Zeferjahn

137 Noah Song

197 Murphy

317 S Scott

797 Walter

 

IFA

Bello '18

Rafaela '17

Perales '19

Mata '16

Castro '19

Paulino '18

Bastardo '18

Flores '17 RIP

[mvp 78]

One could argue the farm started declining during Theo's last years, and he also traded away some top prospects, along the way, like Kelly and Rizzo.

 

The farm Ben inherited was not bad, and it had a few surprises outside the top 3 (Bogey #4) and top 10 (#14 Doubront, #15 Alex Wilson), and Betts, but it did not look all that great, at the time:

 

SEPT 2011

1. Middy

2. Kalish

3. Ranaudo

4. Bogey

5. Iggy

6. Lavarnway

7. Barnes

8. Brentz

9. Jacobs

10. Swihart

11. Coyle

12. Cecchini

13. Weiland

16. Britton

17. Vitek

18. Head

19. Pimental

20. Tejada

 

On DD's drafts: he rarely had top picks and did well with some picks:

 

2016

12 Groome was his highest slot with the Sox

51 Chtam

88 S Anderson

118 Dalbec

148 Shawaryn

178 Nogosek

298 Espinal

 

2017

24 Houck

63 Cole Brannen

491 Crawford

 

2018

26 Casas

64 Decker

160 T Ward

220 Duran

 

2019

43 (2nd rd) C Cannon

69 M Lugo

107 Zeferjahn

137 Noah Song

197 Murphy

317 S Scott

797 Walter

 

IFA

Bello '18

Rafaela '17

Perales '19

Mata '16

Castro '19

Paulino '18

Bastardo '18

Flores '17 RIP

 

Theo's last draft in '11 was:

Barnes

Swihart

Owens

JBJ

Noe Ramirez

Betts

Travis Shaw

[Duran Is The Man]

I've posted before how I was horrified when Dombro dealt the system's #1 pitching prospect -- but of course he never made it, and Pomeranz was a key guy for the '17 division champs.

 

A few points: Espinoza was the first "next Pedro" but those Sox were fighting for first place and going for it. So that trade was more reasonable for a contender than a club that say, finished dead fifth in 75% of the last four seasons, swapping their best all-around positional everyday prospect; that Dombro deal, in retrospect, was also a prime example of how overrated the narrative was that he razed the farm... or how astute he was in knowing which guys to keep and which to sell high.

 

he sold high on a bunch of overrated prospects. genius move. of course his detractors will never admit this.

[moonslav59]

SPOTRAC 2024 Lux Tax Budgets

 

299 NYM

295 NYY

292 LAD

 

268 ATL

238 PHI

 

226 HOU

215 TEX

204 TOR

197 SDP

190 CHC

185 STL

181 SFG

176 BOS #13

 

164 AZ

152 LAA

146 COL

137 MIN

135 SEA

 

121 MIL

118 KCR

118 CLE

115 CWS

114 WSH

 

110 TBR

100 CIN

99 DET

 

81 MIA

80 PIT

79 BAL

 

42 OAK

 

 

 

[Hugh2]

SPOTRAC 2024 Lux Tax Budgets

 

299 NYM

295 NYY

292 LAD

 

268 ATL

238 PHI

 

226 HOU

215 TEX

204 TOR

197 SDP

190 CHC

185 STL

181 SFG

176 BOS #13

 

164 AZ

152 LAA

146 COL

137 MIN

135 SEA

 

121 MIL

118 KCR

118 CLE

115 CWS

114 WSH

 

110 TBR

100 CIN

99 DET

 

81 MIA

80 PIT

79 BAL

 

42 OAK

 

 

 

 

Sox payroll has us closer to 200. They’ve been pretty spot on in recent years.

 

Still had the money for a big game pitcher if they wanted to pull the trigger this offseason.

[Bellhorn04]

Sox payroll has us closer to 200. They’ve been pretty spot on in recent years.

 

Still had the money for a big game pitcher if they wanted to pull the trigger this offseason.

 

Cot's has us at 190.5.

[moonslav59]

Cot's has us at 190.5.

 

I wonder where they have others.

 

My guess is, we are between 12th and 14th in spending on everyone's list.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We all know there's a lot of luck in the development of prospects a GM/CBO drafts, and those kept vs. those traded -- mainly because there are entire departments of employees involved in scouting, analyzing, discussing and arguing who comes and goes.

 

It's also hard to call Dombrowski or Bloom good or bad at drafting, compared to say, Epstein, who had more free reign to give out big bucks to sign top picks. Overall, the draft is just part of their job, and the way most teams operate -- grabbing the consensus BEST player left on the board when it's their turn -- it's hard to be really good or bad at it.

 

But one thing that separates the big wigs is being decisive enough to actually use some of that prospect capital to acquire talent evaluated outside the organization. It was a speciality of Dombro's, a weakness of Bloom's, and a trait that might make or break Breslow... and our summahs!

[moonslav59]

We all know there's a lot of luck in the development of prospects a GM/CBO drafts, and those kept vs. those traded -- mainly because there are entire departments of employees involved in scouting, analyzing, discussing and arguing who comes and goes.

 

It's also hard to call Dombrowski or Bloom good or bad at drafting, compared to say, Epstein, who had more free reign to give out big bucks to sign top picks. Overall, the draft is just part of their job, and the way most teams operate -- grabbing the consensus BEST player left on the board when it's their turn -- it's hard to be really good or bad at it.

 

But one thing that separates the big wigs is being decisive enough to actually use some of that prospect capital to acquire talent evaluated outside the organization. It was a speciality of Dombro's, a weakness of Bloom's, and a trait that might make or break Breslow... and our summahs!

 

Not to take away from Theo, but in those days, we were able to stockpile comp picks and sign "unsignable draftees" to much more money than those drafting ahead of us.

 

The system is harder to milk, these days.

 

Comp picks:

2005: Ellsbury, Buchholz, Lowrie, Hansen, Bowden

2006: Bard

2010: Workman, Ranaudo

2011: JBJ, Barnes, Swihart, Owens

2012: Brian Johnson & Pat Light

 

Under Ben

2014: Kopech

 

[Hugh2]

Not to take away from Theo, but in those days, we were able to stockpile comp picks and sign "unsignable draftees" to much more money than those drafting ahead of us.

 

The system is harder to milk, these days.

 

Comp picks:

2005: Ellsbury, Buchholz, Lowrie, Hansen, Bowden

2006: Bard

2010: Workman, Ranaudo

2011: JBJ, Barnes, Swihart, Owens

2012: Brian Johnson & Pat Light

 

Under Ben

2014: Kopech

 

 

In hindsight, the Charrington drafts were pretty awful. That really started to sting around 2019.

[moonslav59]

In hindsight, the Charrington drafts were pretty awful. That really started to sting around 2019.

 

Well, at least some of his guys helped DD trade for some studs.

 

Ben's picks...

 

2012

24 Marrero

31 B Johnson

37 P Light

87 Callahan

151 Buttrey

(Could not sign Alex Bregman or Carson Fulmer)

 

2013

7 T Ball (His worst pick)

43 Stanki

81 Denny

Later (traded): Dubon, Asuage, Longhi

 

2014

26 Chavis

33 Kopech (part of Sale trade)

67 Travis

Later: Beeks (traded for Nate)

 

2015

7 Beni

81 Rei

Later (traded): Lakins, Allen

 

IFA

Devers

Moncada (Sale)

Espinoza (Pom Pom)

Rusney Castillo

Acosta (Part of Kimbrel trade)

Mata

DHern

 

Trades for prospect: ERod

[mvp 78]

In hindsight, the Charrington drafts were pretty awful. That really started to sting around 2019.

 

Yes, it's why I don't entirely blame DD for the state of the system when Bloom took over.

[Hugh2]

Yes, it's why I don't entirely blame DD for the state of the system when Bloom took over.

 

People also forget, there was a time young in his career where DD help build up some really good farm systems. He did that in Montreal, and the system he built in Florida went on to be a core of players that helped win the world series in 2003.

 

Dave did the job he was hired to do.

[Bellhorn04]

People also forget, there was a time young in his career where DD help build up some really good farm systems. He did that in Montreal, and the system he built in Florida went on to be a core of players that helped win the world series in 2003.

 

Dave did the job he was hired to do.

 

And he's still doing it with the Phils. There are pluses and minuses to his approach, but his career resume is pretty freakin' good.

[Old Red]

And he's still doing it with the Phils. There are pluses and minuses to his approach, but his career resume is pretty freakin' good.

 

DD last season in Boston was looked at as a bad season at 84-78, and it was compared to his first 3, but that 84–78 wouldn’t look so bad today, or the last two years either.

[Hugh2]

And he's still doing it with the Phils. There are pluses and minuses to his approach, but his career resume is pretty freakin' good.

 

I wonder if DD would have stayed here if Henry just gave him a different Mandate, perhaps Dave in his older age and experience commands the ability to be in a position to work for organizations that are only in win now mode and wouldn't have interest in it. Maybe, when approached with such a mandate Dave said no, and that's why he was fired. Of course, with this F.O. reputation, I would have figured that some dirt would have leaked about Dave if that was the case, or perhaps Henry is smart enough to know that that s*** wouldn't fly with someone has highly regarded as him.

[Bellhorn04]

I wonder if DD would have stayed here if Henry just gave him a different Mandate, perhaps Dave in his older age and experience commands the ability to be in a position to work for organizations that are only in win now mode and wouldn't have interest in it. Maybe, when approached with such a mandate Dave said no, and that's why he was fired. Of course, with this F.O. reputation, I would have figured that some dirt would have leaked about Dave if that was the case, or perhaps Henry is smart enough to know that that s*** wouldn't fly with someone has highly regarded as him.

 

DD said Henry never offered a single word of explanation as to why he was let go, didn't speak to him at all when he was fired or since.

[Hugh2]

DD said Henry never offered a single word of explanation as to why he was let go, didn't speak to him at all when he was fired or since.

 

And that wasn't his first time working with him, Henry had a history with DD in the past in Montreal as well. They obviously had a good working relationship there for him to bring him on board in Boston, and to fire him just like that?

 

Maybe Henry is suffering from some sort of dementia.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And that wasn't his first time working with him, Henry had a history with DD in the past in Montreal as well. They obviously had a good working relationship there for him to bring him on board in Boston, and to fire him just like that?

 

Maybe Henry is suffering from some sort of dementia.

 

He has kind of become the Howard Hughes of MLB.

[Hitch]

DD said Henry never offered a single word of explanation as to why he was let go, didn't speak to him at all when he was fired or since.

 

Just Henry? Did anyone else from the organisation outline why he'd been fired? If nobody did, that's absurd.