A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

We need the rotation to be better. Pivetta can barely even get a QS every few games.

 

Sale will also most likely be in the rotation. That's two slots that are very underwhelming.

 

QS%

 

2023:

54 Bello

42 Paxton (Gone)

(League AVG 34%)

31% Pivetta

30% Sale (can't be counted on)

24% Houck

17% Crawford (the guy you want over Pivetta, because Pivetta can't get enough QSs.)

 

2022:

40% Nate

39% Wacha

36% Pivetta

(36% MLB AVG)

33% Crawford

23% Hill

 

2021:

41% Nate

(31% league avg)

29% ERod

27% Pivetta

18% Perez

18% Richards

0% Houck

 

Nice try.

 

[moonslav59]

I think he only watches the highlights from the highlights….

 

Since we sucked, this year, none of it counts as "highlights," because it was all "garbage time."

 

Plus, it's a "watered down league," so nothing should count.

[moonslav59]

Once again i didn’t say get rid of him, but the FACT is they are a losing team with him, or without him.

 

Same with Bogey, Nate, JD and others last year, but you would never say that.

[notin]

JBJ was the best Red Sox centerfielder that I have seen. And I go back pretty far. I do think strong defense up the middle is very important. At the corner infield spots, I have no problem swapping some defense for power. . Leave Devers and Casas alone. They are not the problem with this ballclub.

 

Sox were top ten in runs scored.

Sox were 23rd in ERA (but 15th in xFIP)

Sox were 30th in OAA (and RAA)

 

Defense is a big issue on this team…

[Old Red]

The Red Sox Being top ten in runs scored was very misleading.

[moonslav59]

Sale has been a gamble since DD signed him to that extension. That $25M could be a lot better spent on a part time player at best, which is what he’s been for three years now.

 

I agree.

 

Counting on Sale in the rotation is asking for the same trouble we've had for over 3 years. He will get hurt, and we'll force an effective RP'er into the rotation, where he may do okay for a while, but end up near 4.50 to 5.50.

 

It's a broken record, and the name of the record is "Freakin' Cris Sale!"

 

I'm fine with keeping him. He could do great for us. We just can't plan on it.

 

IMO, I like Pivetta as the #65, but if it's Crawford or Houck, that's okay, too, but whoever it is, should share the last slot of the rotation with Sale.

 

SP1 (Yamamoto)

SP2 (Montgomery/Gray)

SP3 Bello

SP4 (Morton 1 yr/Lynn 1 yr or Wacha)

SP5 Sale/____ (Pivetta/Crawford/Houck- choose one and keep the others in the pen as much as possible)

 

[notin]

The Red Sox Being top ten in runs scored was very misleading.

 

 

You’re right. After all, they did play more games against the AL East teams than anyone else - all 4 of whom finished in the top 10 in ERA - and since their hitters didn’t set to face their own below average staff, they arguably had one of if not the toughest paths to being a top ten offense. And that does get ignored when we simply look at season totals.

Edited October 2, 2023 by notin

[moonslav59]

I’m just saying I’m not as excited about the current crop from the farm as most of you are. I need to see more at the big league level.

 

I only see a handful of posters ready to pencil in Rafaela, Abreu and EValdez into just 2 FT positions. I don't see anyone pencilling in 3. I think only 1-2 guys might give 2 slots to the 3. (Counting Duran, maybe there are more.)

 

"Excited" does not equate to knowing or thinking they are locks.

 

I'm about as optimistic about our prospects as almost anyone, and I do not trust Duran, Abreu, Rafaela or EValdez for much of anything. I'd leave one OF slot open for the best to win it.

 

I would not be saying bring Duvall back, if I was sure these guys can do well in 2024.

[Maxbialystock]

How did it work in 2023?

 

2023 had bad bats, bat pitching, and bad defense.

 

Specifically, for the Sox bats to be good--good enough to make the postseason--the Sox need to rank in the top 5 in MLB in runs scored. This year they were 11th. In the 21 seasons of the JH era, the Sox have never been to the postseason ranked 11th in runs scored.

 

Cut off for pitching is easier--16th in team ERA--but this year the Sox were 21st in team ERA. 2021 Sox were 14th; 2018 Sox were 8th; 2017 Sox were 4th; 2016, 9th; 2013, 14th; 2009, 16th; 2008, 9th; 2007, 2d; 2004, 11th. One glaring exception was the 2005 Sox, whose team ERA was 25th in MLB. They won 95 games, went to the postseason, and were swept in the ALDS in 3 games by the White Sox: 14-2, 5-4, and 5-3.

 

I can find no correlation between the Sox defense and getting to the postseason. For example, the 2021 Sox made it to the ALCS and were 29th in fielding percentage. In 2017 they were 26th.

Edited October 2, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

 

3. Improve the hitting, especially the righty bats. This year the Sox had one righty bat, Turner. Duvall missed too many games, Story stunk, Ref can't hit righties, etc.

 

4. Don't trade to improve the defense. Devers and Casas are our two best hitters and adequate at 3b and 1b. Story is excellent at SS, but killed us with his rotten hitting. Sox won with Kike, errors and and all, at SS and lost with Story at SS. Dodgers got better with Kike.

 

3. Improving our RHB would take a major expenditure. Story might make up some ground, but we'd need to find 1-2 guys who do better than JT and Duvall.

 

4. Stop saying Devers and Casas are "adequate" at 3B and 1B. They are the worst defensive corner IF'ers in MLB.

 

Yes, their hitting makes them more than adequate to be FT'ers, but the suck on D- no ifs ands or buts. They suck. Moving one to DH would not hurt the offense. Nobody is suggesting we replace them with an all glove-no hit player. The suggestion is moving one to DH or have them share 1B/DH. Both still are in the line-up as much as Cora will play them.

 

I, for one, prefer moving Yoshi to DH, and having casas stay at 1B for 1 more year to see what he can do. I'd keep Devers at 3B, but I'd have him start working at 1B as the back-up. Maybe we can play Devers and Casas more games, if we let them "rest" as the DH. Their offense is their strength: let's play up to it. Their defense is their negative influence, so let's try to minimize that part without taking away from the offense. It's not a bad idea.

[notin]

2023 had bad bats, bat pitching, and bad defense.

 

Specifically, for the Sox bats to be good--good enough to make the postseason--the Sox need to rank in the top 5 in MLB in runs scored. This year they were 11th. In the 21 seasons of the JH era, the Sox have never been to the postseason ranked 11th in runs scored.

 

Cut off for pitching is easier--16th in team ERA--but this year the Sox were 21st in team ERA. 2021 Sox were 14th; 2018 Sox were 8th; 2017 Sox were 4th; 2016, 9th; 2013, 14th; 2009, 16th; 2008, 9th; 2007, 2d; 2004, 11th. One glaring exception was the 2005 Sox, whose team ERA was 25th in MLB. They won 95 games, went to the postseason, and were swept in the ALDS in 3 games by the White Sox: 14-2, 5-4, and 5-3.

 

I can find no correlation between the Sox defense and getting to the postseason.

 

Not to mention your entire postulate is theoretical. You basically conclude with “I didn’t look at defense so therefore it clearly doesn’t matter.”

 

And the rest is meaningless happenstance. Should we therefore conclude that if the Sox had the best pitching but the 12th best offense, they will miss the postseason?

[moonslav59]

Sox were top ten in runs scored.

Sox were 23rd in ERA (but 15th in xFIP)

Sox were 30th in OAA (and RAA)

 

Defense is a big issue on this team…

 

Actually, we were 11thin runs.

 

Runs scored is influenced by Fenway.

 

Our offense was 16th in wRC+.

11th in wOBA

9th in OPS, but not OPS+ (adjusted for park)

17th in ISO

[Old Red]

If I was a Pom Pom cheerleader I’d be all in after listening to Sam, and Cora at the year end press conference. They both talked a lot, but neither said much of anything. Did I catch that season ticket prices are going up?

[Nick]

Alex Cora to players: ‘Not acceptable’ for Red Sox to miss postseason

 

Nick to Alex...maybe you should do a better job of managing. Not acceptable to play your best friend at short when clearly he doesn't belong there.

 

I know I had NOTHING to do with Sox losing. Can you say the same?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This board has a Yoshida fetish. Moving him out of left field -- the easiest outfield position, at least in 50% of Red Sox games -- won't solve the defensive issues.

 

Besides catcher, the two most important positions on the diamond are shortstop and centerfield. Boston is already improved at short -- as long as Story stays healthy until one of Bloom's 85 prospects actually makes the Show. But a legitimate centerfielder is a must -- and that means no Duran or Duvall in center next year. If Rafaela can hit .250 in MLB, that will have to suffice. Otherwise, welcome Mike Trout.

 

Unfortunately, more action happens at third base and subsequently first base; will the new regime make an earth-shattering change at one of the infield corners?

 

For those of you that blame Alex Cora for the D -- as if he constructed the piss-poor last-place rosters during the Bloom Error -- the one position I will agree with you on is THE MOUND. There is simply no excuse... decade after decade... for the big market Red Sox to allow pitchers to suck at fielding (especially throwing to any base, including fourth base). And you'd think they'd be the BEST gloves in the middle of the diamond, like when they were kids in Little League up through at least High School...

 

Reese: "GET OVER!"

 

Color Man to OB: "(Arm) got a late start there, and didn't beat the runner to the bag..."

[Old Red]

Alex Cora to players: ‘Not acceptable’ for Red Sox to miss postseason

 

Nick to Alex...maybe you should do a better job of managing. Not acceptable to play your best friend at short when clearly he doesn't belong there.

 

I know I had NOTHING to do with Sox losing. Can you say the same?

I agree with what you are saying to a point, but Cora has worked his way up to be JH right hand man. He gets to stay, and even gets to help pick out the next GM type.

[Dipre]

This board has a Yoshida fetish. Moving him out of left field -- the easiest outfield position, at least in 50% of Red Sox games -- won't solve the defensive issues.

 

Bellhorn is its leader.

[Bellhorn04]

Bellhorn is its leader.

 

Ha! I just get obsessive about certain things. Yoshida is an above average MLB hitter. But I think it was a very bad signing in light of the cost, our tight budget, need for starting pitching, the fact Bloom signed 2 DH's, our bad defense and so on.

[mvp 78]

This board has a Yoshida fetish. Moving him out of left field -- the easiest outfield position, at least in 50% of Red Sox games -- won't solve the defensive issues.

 

Besides catcher, the two most important positions on the diamond are shortstop and centerfield. Boston is already improved at short -- as long as Story stays healthy until one of Bloom's 85 prospects actually makes the Show. But a legitimate centerfielder is a must -- and that means no Duran or Duvall in center next year. If Rafaela can hit .250 in MLB, that will have to suffice. Otherwise, welcome Mike Trout.

 

Unfortunately, more action happens at third base and subsequently first base; will the new regime make an earth-shattering change at one of the infield corners?

 

For those of you that blame Alex Cora for the D -- as if he constructed the piss-poor last-place rosters during the Bloom Error -- the one position I will agree with you on is THE MOUND. There is simply no excuse... decade after decade... for the big market Red Sox to allow pitchers to suck at fielding (especially throwing to any base, including fourth base). And you'd think they'd be the BEST gloves in the middle of the diamond, like when they were kids in Little League up through at least High School...

 

Reese: "GET OVER!"

 

Color Man to OB: "(Arm) got a late start there, and didn't beat the runner to the bag..."

 

Duran LF

Rafaela CF

Abreu RF

 

Is so much better than what they threw out there this year. Then putting Story at SS? That's fixing a s*** ton of problems already.

[mvp 78]

Ha! I just get obsessive about certain things. Yoshida is an above average MLB hitter. But I think it was a very bad signing in light of the cost, our tight budget, need for starting pitching, the fact Bloom signed 2 DH's, our bad defense and so on.

 

Just give him one more year please. Most other Japanese players needed a year to acclimate too (see: Matsui, Suzuki).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If shorty Yoshida could just hit a few more homers and yell "f*** Ya!" a lot, without a translator, fans would start to accept him more like they did with Pedroia.

[Hugh2]

Duran LF

Rafaela CF

Verdugo RF

 

Is so much better than what they threw out there this year. Then putting Story at SS? That's fixing a s*** ton of problems already.

 

Fixed it for you

[mvp 78]

Fixed it for you

 

Verdugo is getting his ass traded. 635 OPS since the ASB. He can go be miserable somewhere else.

[Hugh2]

Just give him one more year please. Most other Japanese players needed a year to acclimate too (see: Matsui, Suzuki).

 

Holy hell, just looked up Hideki Matsui and it seems like a very similar comp.

 

Both were 29 in their first year here, both played LF and were not very good at all.

 

Matsui hit .287/.353/.435

Yoshi hit .289/.338/.445

 

Little less OBP little more SLP but almost the same OBP. Matsui put up 16.7 War in his first 5 years in NY. The crazy thing is Yoshida looked fine most of the year after a slow start, and now a slow finish has dragged his stats down a little bit.

 

I think it's way too early to judge, but it's certainly not a disaster contract either, at least the guy can hit.

[Hugh2]

Verdugo is getting his ass traded. 635 OPS since the ASB. He can go be miserable somewhere else.

 

I don't think the Red Sox are going to roll out an outfield that consists of 2 rookies and 1 still somewhat unproven youngster.

 

I don't think Verdugo is here long term, but I feel it's much more probable than not they retain him.

[moonslav59]

Duran LF

Rafaela CF

Abreu RF

 

Is so much better than what they threw out there this year. Then putting Story at SS? That's fixing a s*** ton of problems already.

 

Indeed, but that OF looks to be a step down on offense, and we already ranked between 11 and 16 in most key categories on O.

 

I think trading Dugo and adding Duvall makes sense, and playing Duvall in RF (with Abreu) and LF (with Duran) might be a better idea than CF.

 

If Rafaela stinks up the place on O, who plays CF? Duvall, again?

[mvp 78]

Holy hell, just looked up Hideki Matsui and it seems like a very similar comp.

 

Both were 29 in their first year here, both played LF and were not very good at all.

 

Matsui hit .287/.353/.435

Yoshi hit .289/.338/.445

 

Little less OBP little more SLP but almost the same OBP. Matsui put up 16.7 War in his first 5 years in NY. The crazy thing is Yoshida looked fine most of the year after a slow start, and now a slow finish has dragged his stats down a little bit.

 

I think it's way too early to judge, but it's certainly not a disaster contract either, at least the guy can hit.

 

It's not a one to one, but I think he deserves one more year of us being patient.

[mvp 78]

I don't think the Red Sox are going to roll out an outfield that consists of 2 rookies and 1 still somewhat unproven youngster.

 

I don't think Verdugo is here long term, but I feel it's much more probable than not they retain him.

 

I'd rather roll out a rookie than Verdugo. We already have seen Verdugo's 2 fWAR ceiling and his lack of fit in this clubhouse.

[mvp 78]

Indeed, but that OF looks to be a step down on offense, and we already ranked between 11 and 16 in most key categories on O.

 

I think trading Dugo and adding Duvall makes sense, and playing Duvall in RF (with Abreu) and LF (with Duran) might be a better idea than CF.

 

If Rafaela stinks up the place on O, who plays CF? Duvall, again?

 

I don't care if Rafaela is hitting 650. He stays in CF.

[Maxbialystock]

It is a confusing picture for sure. Without numerous moves, this team stays the same likely. They aren't very good. Outside of some potential young players whoever the new gm is the job will be a tough one. I get all the talk about the "cliff" now. Over the past few years we were brought to the brink of it and now have been kicked right off the ledge.

 

2012 Sox were the pits: 69-93. The next year the Sox won the WS.