Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Old Red]

He's not worth half that. That $700M could get us Yamamoto, Snell and Monty.

 

Just a ridiculous bad contract that not only is bad for baseball, but bad for sports as well. Great for the player, but a greedy owner makes future contracts go up for everyone else, and ticket prices as well. Hell the Red Sox fans pay high ticket prices last place, or not.🙈

[jacksonianmarch]

It's $35 mil apiece for his hitting and pitching ability. As a DH, he isn't worth $35 mil per annum. He's a $20 mil per year hitter. His pitching is worth maybe $30 mil per year, but he is out for next year, so the value for next year is zero

[Duran Is The Man]

He's not worth half that. That $700M could get us Yamamoto, Snell and Monty.

 

I agree. I thought he’d get $450M to maybe $500M. Insane money. And, like you said, the same money would get those three. Which I would much rather have. But JH won’t do that. He’ll be at Goodwill looking for bargains like he has less money than I do.

[Bellhorn04]

One thing is past obvious now, some owners simply don't care about the luxury tax and penalties, they're willing to blow through every limit years in a row.

 

If JH still thinks being smart means ducking the tax, his thinking has become obsolete. He's behind the times.

[Old Red]

It's $35 mil apiece for his hitting and pitching ability. As a DH, he isn't worth $35 mil per annum. He's a $20 mil per year hitter. His pitching is worth maybe $30 mil per year, but he is out for next year, so the value for next year is zero

 

JD hit 33 HR, and drove in 103 RBI. Is the Big O going to make the Dodgers that much better? Especially $70M better?

[jad]

Just a ridiculous bad contract that not only is bad for baseball, but bad for sports as well. Great for the player, but a greedy owner makes future contracts go up for everyone else, and ticket prices as well. Hell the Red Sox fans pay high ticket prices last place, or not.

 

Yeah, just look how the movie industry collapsed when they started paying actors big time. Or how the art world went into the tank as soon as they started paying millions for paintings.

 

 

(I'm actually surprised at how quickly posters began celebrating us not getting Ohtani. But I agree entirely: when you have stars like ONeill, McGuire, and what were all those pitchers' names? who needs stiffs like Ohtani, Bogaerts, Mookie. I wonder if these posters love going to speedways to see Hyndai's flying about, rather than those overpriced Ferrari's.)

Edited December 10, 2023 by jad

[Old Red]

Yeah, just look how the movie industry collapsed when they started paying actors big time. Or how the art world went into the tank as soon as they started paying millions for paintings.

 

 

(I'm actually surprised at how quickly posters began celebrating us not getting Ohtani. But I agree entirely: when you have stars like ONeill, McGuire, and what were all those pitchers' names? who needs stiffs like Ohtani, Bogaerts, Mookie. I wonder if these posters love going to speedways to see Hyndai's flying about, rather than those overpriced Ferrari's.)

Nobody said anything thing about anything collapsing, because some will pay no matter what the price. The problem is how many of the bottom dwellers in payroll could you put together to make up the Dodgers payroll? Most likely the Dodgers aren’t done yet either.

[notin]

Yeah, just look how the movie industry collapsed when they started paying actors big time. Or how the art world went into the tank as soon as they started paying millions for paintings.

 

 

(I'm actually surprised at how quickly posters began celebrating us not getting Ohtani. But I agree entirely: when you have stars like ONeill, McGuire, and what were all those pitchers' names? who needs stiffs like Ohtani, Bogaerts, Mookie. I wonder if these posters love going to speedways to see Hyndai's flying about, rather than those overpriced Ferrari's.)

 

Nobody wanted him in Boston, because he can’t pitch in 2024 and he doesn’t play the field anywhere. But no one celebrated him going elsewhere either.

 

And the people who didn’t want him recognize that Henry has always had some limitations on his budget. The shocking thing to me is apparently there are still people who don’t realize this…

[Old Red]

Nobody wanted him in Boston, because he can’t pitch in 2024 and he doesn’t play the field anywhere. But no one celebrated him going elsewhere either.

 

And the people who didn’t want him recognize that Henry has always had some limitations on his budget. The shocking thing to me is apparently there are still people who don’t realize this…

 

Henry’s days of being one of the big spenders has been over since Mookie was traded. Yes Raffy was signed, but he was the last man standing, and a revolt would have happened in RSN if he hadn’t. Big spenders are now into MLB, and JH has been passed by by those willing to not only go to the top like over the top. $280M for Bogey is a good example of that, and i wouldn’t pay that either, or anything close to that. The Red Sox are lucky they got Raffy when they did, because I think that price would have been higher this year if Raffy had tested the FA waters.

[notin]

Henry’s days of being one of the big spenders has been over since Mookie was traded. Yes Raffy was signed, but he was the last man standing, and a revolt would have happened in RSN if he hadn’t. Big spenders are now into MLB, and JH has been passed by by those willing to not only go to the top like over the top. $280M for Bogey is a good example of that, and i wouldn’t pay that either, or anything close to that. The Red Sox are lucky they got Raffy when they did, because I think that price would have been higher this year if Raffy had tested the FA waters.

 

And all of that makes it even easier to not get upset when Henry doesn’t spend 25% of his payroll on a DH.

 

The thing is, the Red Sox still aren’t a low payroll team. They haven’t been under $200mill in several years. And eight teams last season spent less money on their 40 man roster than the Dodgers will spend on Ohtani for 2024.

 

The Sox aren’t up there with the Dodgers, but we are not the Pirates, Rays or Guardians either…

[Old Red]

And all of that makes it even easier to not get upset when Henry doesn’t spend 25% of his payroll on a DH.

 

The thing is, the Red Sox still aren’t a low payroll team. They haven’t been under $200mill in several years. And eight teams last season spent less money on their 40 man roster than the Dodgers will spend on Ohtani for 2024.

 

The Sox aren’t up there with the Dodgers, but we are not the Pirates, Rays or Guardians either…

 

Agree the Red Sox aren’t a low payroll team, but it’s just that others have gone on a big spending spree, and it makes the Red Sox look like they are a low payroll team.

$700M for the Big O

$667M total payroll for the Oakland A’s the last ten years.

[jad]

I dunno. I guess I'm just not a 'real' fan. I follow sports because I like to see great athletes perform, not because I'm interested in the wild wild world of CPAs and WARs. And the place to watch them appears to be in LA. Of course it's completely unfair that the owners who agree to pay their employees more get the best employees. That's positively unAmerican.

[cp176]

I dunno. I guess I'm just not a 'real' fan. I follow sports because I like to see great athletes perform, not because I'm interested in the wild wild world of CPAs and WARs. And the place to watch them appears to be in LA. Of course it's completely unfair that the owners who agree to pay their employees more get the best employees. That's positively unAmerican.

 

It looks to me as though some of the wealthiest owners are more interested in winning than in spending sleepless nights in worry about budgetary constraints. It is nice when someone finds the classic "diamond in the rough" but in general you win with better players and sometimes as we have seen you have to pay for them. I understand that the Red Sox do in fact spend but I'm beginning to wonder if they are spending their money wisely.

[moonslav59]

Nobody wanted him in Boston, because he can’t pitch in 2024 and he doesn’t play the field anywhere. But no one celebrated him going elsewhere either.…

 

I celebrated!

 

I did not want Ohtani at$300M.

 

That’s not to say I don’t want us spending $300-700M.

 

I do.

 

I’d just rather we spend it more wisely.

 

I will add that JH did just agree to pay Devers almost50% more than he paid Price.

 

How many teams have. $300M player on their roster?

[Randy Red Sox]

And all of that makes it even easier to not get upset when Henry doesn’t spend 25% of his payroll on a DH.

 

The thing is, the Red Sox still aren’t a low payroll team. They haven’t been under $200mill in several years. And eight teams last season spent less money on their 40 man roster than the Dodgers will spend on Ohtani for 2024.

 

The Sox aren’t up there with the Dodgers, but we are not the Pirates, Rays or Guardians either…

 

the Red Sox payroll in comparison to the others in MLB has been going down steadily for a few years now. We were once around #3 in payroll and the last I heard we were about #14 now. That is reality. Personally I don't care where we are in terms of payroll but being a last place club 3 of the past 4 years DOES bother me.

[notin]

It looks to me as though some of the wealthiest owners are more interested in winning than in spending sleepless nights in worry about budgetary constraints. It is nice when someone finds the classic "diamond in the rough" but in general you win with better players and sometimes as we have seen you have to pay for them. I understand that the Red Sox do in fact spend but I'm beginning to wonder if they are spending their money wisely.

 

The spending wisely caveat is only attached to the Sox on this forum, for obvious reasons. So is $700mill for Ohtani money spent wisely?

[jad]

I'm still trying to get my head around the idea that Sox fans or any sports fan would celebrate NOT getting to watch Ohtani. That they feel more of an affinity with JH's bank account than with the product on the field. But so it goes.

[moonslav59]

I'm still trying to get my head around the idea that Sox fans or any sports fan would celebrate NOT getting to watch Ohtani. That they feel more of an affinity with JH's bank account than with the product on the field. But so it goes.

 

It's simple to understand, even if you don't agree.

 

Of course, I'd like to see Ohtani play for the Sox, but it's an either or situation with every team, exc epr MAYBE the Dodgers, who apparently did not offer JD a QO, so they could spend on Ohtani.

 

I'd rather watch us win with Yamo, Monty, Lugo, Duvall and Merrifield than watch us lose with Ohtani and nothing else.

 

We need pitching, and Ohtani can't pitch.

 

You are dreaming if you think we'd spend $700M on Ohtani and then spend $400M more on 2 top pitchers.

 

You are basically scolding us for being realistic.

[moonslav59]

The spending wisely caveat is only attached to the Sox on this forum, for obvious reasons. So is $700mill for Ohtani money spent wisely?

 

My guess is some Jays fans are thankful they will keep Vlad, Bichette and others over one guy who can't pitch.

 

The Jays do not have an unlimited budget, either.

 

[notin]

I'm still trying to get my head around the idea that Sox fans or any sports fan would celebrate NOT getting to watch Ohtani. That they feel more of an affinity with JH's bank account than with the product on the field. But so it goes.

 

Maybe because they want to see a winning team and Ohtani plus eight Enmanuel Valdez clones plus a staff “aced” by Tanner Houck isn’t a formula for success…

[moonslav59]

Maybe because they want to see a winning team and Ohtani plus eight Enmanuel Valdez clones plus a staff “aced” by Tanner Houck isn’t a formula for success…

 

Even the Dodgers and Mets do not buy every player they want. Every team has a limit on spending.

 

I'm still trying to "get my head around the idea that some Sox fans" don't understand that.

 

They can argue all day, and not incorrectly, that JH has the money to spend like LAD and NYM, but facts are facts. He doesn't. He won't.

 

Certainly, doing so increases the odds on winning, but the idea that spending money wisely is the bigger key than just spending money wildly is a concept that should be easy to "get your head around."

 

Fine, disagree with those who talk about spending wisely, but it's not rocket science to at least understand why we do it.

[cp176]

The spending wisely caveat is only attached to the Sox on this forum, for obvious reasons. So is $700mill for Ohtani money spent wisely?

 

Does it matter? i guess that it kind of looks as though if you want the best, you are likely going to have to pay for it.

[moonslav59]

When we went into last winter with an expected, pretty hefty winter spending budget, I felt we had enough to get a key SP'er or two and maybe get back to relevance.

 

Instead, Bloom chose to spend on the pen, LF and DH. The salary cost of top pitchers seemed absurd, then, but now, some of these past contracts signed look like bargains.

 

$43.3M x 2 Verlander

$17.0M x 2 Nate

$15.0M x 5 Senga

$13.3M x 3 Eflin

 

The Seattle trade and extension for Castillo looks like a spectacular trade and sign.

 

Waiting until now to go "full throttle" looks like a huge mistake in judging the rising market costs. If we end up knee-jerking to the point where we go nutty on Yamo, it could end up being a crippling signing, if he does not impress, but we've backed ourselves into a corner, where it seems like we have to take that stab in the dark.

 

I suppose, we could settle on massive overpays for Snell or Monty plus another good tier 2 or 3 SP'er, but again, the timing on a possible budget spike looks like it could be the biggest mistake JH has ever made.

 

How about some signings from '22, when we spent on Story, instead?

$25M x 2 Verlander

$22M x 5 on Gausman

$14M x 4 Jon Gray

 

Of course, I could make lists longer than these of failed sp'er signings in the past 2-3 years, but at least the cost risks were much lower than now.

[cp176]

It's simple to understand, even if you don't agree.

 

Of course, I'd like to see Ohtani play for the Sox, but it's an either or situation with every team, exc epr MAYBE the Dodgers, who apparently did not offer JD a QO, so they could spend on Ohtani.

 

I'd rather watch us win with Yamo, Monty, Lugo, Duvall and Merrifield than watch us lose with Ohtani and nothing else.

 

We need pitching, and Ohtani can't pitch.

 

You are dreaming if you think we'd spend $700M on Ohtani and then spend $400M more on 2 top pitchers.

 

You are basically scolding us for being realistic.

 

I would love to watch a team with Yamo,Monty, Lugo, Duval, and Merrifield as well. Wouldn't that be a great way for JH to spend his money. In reality though, based on what we have seen, what are the chances?

[moonslav59]

I would love to watch a team with Yamo,Monty, Lugo, Duval, and Merrifield as well. Wouldn't that be a great way for JH to spend his money. In reality though, based on what we have seen, what are the chances?

 

Zero.

 

I was talking hypothetical to the poster who is wondering why I'm happy Ohtani signed for $700M with an NL team.

 

I would not have been happy had JH spent $700M on Ohtani, because I know we'd be losing, because $700M would have to turn to $1.2B for us to have a chance at winning.

 

Those chances are way longer than us signing Yamo, Monty, Lugo Duvall and Merrifield.

 

This is really a debate on why isn't JH spending like a maniac. If he doesn't spend like LAD and NYM, apparently, we need a new owner.

 

I'm not going to expect that sort of spending. I do think we need to spend up to the second line to come close to relevance. I'm not expecting it, and I refuse to get optimistic about it happening, but it could happen, and I hope it does.

 

If it does, I'll be satisfied we are making an effort.

 

The second part is even more difficult to get optimistic about: Breslow will have to be enar perfect with every signing and trade, even if we spend up to but not over the second line, especially looking at today's market prices for true talent.

 

cots has us at about $57M under the first line. There is not much we can do by trade to bring that number down, except by trading Sale, Devrs, Story or Yoshi, so I'm not expecting that to happen. So, add 19M to stay under the second line, and that leaves about $76M to spend beyond O'Neill.

 

For argument's sake, is any of these plans enough to get us to be playoff faves?

 

Per year salaries

A) 30M Yamo, 25M Monty, 12M Lugo and 8M Duvall or Merrifield (I'm not sure we can get all 4 for $76M/yr)

25M Monty, 16M (arb) Burnes (via trade) 12M Lugo, 8M Duvall, 8M Merrifield and $? on a catcher (Then, use the lost Sale money plus the arb cost of $16M to extend Burnes.)

C) 30M Yamo, 18M Stroman, 16M Burnes, 8M Duvall, plus a catcher

 

Some of my estimates may be off, but you get the gist, right?

 

[Randy Red Sox]

Zero.

 

I was talking hypothetical to the poster who is wondering why I'm happy Ohtani signed for $700M with an NL team.

 

I would not have been happy had JH spent $700M on Ohtani, because I know we'd be losing, because $700M would have to turn to $1.2B for us to have a chance at winning.

 

Those chances are way longer than us signing Yamo, Monty, Lugo Duvall and Merrifield.

 

This is really a debate on why isn't JH spending like a maniac. If he doesn't spend like LAD and NYM, apparently, we need a new owner.

 

I'm not going to expect that sort of spending. I do think we need to spend up to the second line to come close to relevance. I'm not expecting it, and I refuse to get optimistic about it happening, but it could happen, and I hope it does.

 

If it does, I'll be satisfied we are making an effort.

 

The second part is even more difficult to get optimistic about: Breslow will have to be enar perfect with every signing and trade, even if we spend up to but not over the second line, especially looking at today's market prices for true talent.

 

cots has us at about $57M under the first line. There is not much we can do by trade to bring that number down, except by trading Sale, Devrs, Story or Yoshi, so I'm not expecting that to happen. So, add 19M to stay under the second line, and that leaves about $76M to spend beyond O'Neill.

 

For argument's sake, is any of these plans enough to get us to be playoff faves?

 

Per year salaries

A) 30M Yamo, 25M Monty, 12M Lugo and 8M Duvall or Merrifield (I'm not sure we can get all 4 for $76M/yr)

25M Monty, 16M (arb) Burnes (via trade) 12M Lugo, 8M Duvall, 8M Merrifield and $? on a catcher (Then, use the lost Sale money plus the arb cost of $16M to extend Burnes.)

C) 30M Yamo, 18M Stroman, 16M Burnes, 8M Duvall, plus a catcher

 

Some of my estimates may be off, but you get the gist, right?

 

 

WE are NOT signing Duvall after trading for the great Tyler O'Neill so take him out of the equation here. I expect we will get Stroman and Lugo which will still leave us as a last place team but hey at least we are spending right??

[jad]

So how's that "we're-looking-for-value-and-not-signing-high-priced-FAs-or-homegrown-talent" theory working out?

[moonslav59]

WE are NOT signing Duvall after trading for the great Tyler O'Neill so take him out of the equation here. I expect we will get Stroman and Lugo which will still leave us as a last place team but hey at least we are spending right??

 

I'd add Merrifield, but yes, some might buy that. Not me.

 

If they think O'Neill can play CF, and they probably do, since they thought Duvall could, then yes, we will not pay for another Of'er, unless we trade Refsnyder and add someone like Michael Taylor.

 

If we don't sign Yamo, Snell or Monty of trade for someone like Burnes, I'm calling the winter a failure. We could sign 3 tier three pitchers, and it's still a sham.

 

[moonslav59]

So how's that "we're-looking-for-value-and-not-signing-high-priced-FAs-or-homegrown-talent" theory working out?

 

We haven't been adding "value." We don't need to sign the $700M guy to add value.

 

We could add Yamo, Snell or Monty plus a tier 3 guys and I'd say we added value. I'm not counting on it, though. I think the great sham will continue.

 

Nobody is saying what we have been doing is working, but signing Ohtani would not have worked either, unless JH joins you in La-La Land and becomes the next Cohen.

 

JH let Betts go and didn't even replace he and Prices contracts for 3 years. What makes you think he'd add Ohtani and then spend on the pitching we need to win?

 

You think the idea of him spending over $1.2B is a reasonable theory for us to follow you on?

 

BTW, how is the sending like a maniac theory Cohen used, last winter "working out?" You think the Mets signing Yamo will win them a ring? Hell, they'd still miss the playoffs in 2024, if that's all he does.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I could be me, but I doubt there are any fans of any baseball team that would be upset today if their club just signed Ohtani.

 

I know there are some who "can't believe someone paid that much money to a guy to play a child's game" -- just like every single time an athlete breaks the all-time contract record, since the beginning of free agency almost half a century ago (and even before that when owners showed gratitude to stars during the Reserve Clause).

 

But Ohtani's not just the greatest two-way ballplayer of all-time... he's one of the most famous people on the planet. He's Elvis.

 

The Dodgers aren't always right, but they always make a plan and are decisive. They knew exactly what they were doing when they traded for Mookie, and when Ohtani becomes an over-priced DH, they'll cut their losses. And move on to the next marketing target for their sustained winners... while the sustained losers gripe about their record, wishing they at least had stars to root for and give them hope.