Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[moonslav59]

I can't deny that the actions of this offseason do not look like that of a club that is all in, and to be honest I don't blame them, yet I myself am frustrated.

 

However, I doubt they would sign a guy like Giolito if they didn't think they can get him right. Doesn't mean they will be successful, but oftem teams are. There's a new guy in town, new pitching coach, and other personel, who look at and evaluate these pitchers. They have something prove, but at the very least it's obvious they think Giolitos issues from the last 1/3 of last season are fixable. If they're right, he leaves, but at least they get a draft pick, OR they could even trade him at the deadline.

 

We can sit here and August and talk about how Breslow is Bloom 2.0 and Giolito is Kluber 2.0. Or we may be talking about how great of a move it was.

 

It's the perfect contract.... for Gio.

 

Concerns about his last 2 year numbers made the 4 year offers, if there were any, lower than he hoped for.

 

$19M/1 if we pitches well.

 

$37M/2, if he does poorly. (Wow! We get him at $18M year 2, if he does badly.)

 

If he does poorly in 2025, too, we better make sure he doesn't pitch 140 innings, of he gets another $19M or a $1.5M buyout.

[Bellhorn04]

I can't deny that the actions of this offseason do not look like that of a club that is all in, and to be honest I don't blame them, yet I myself am frustrated.

 

However, I doubt they would sign a guy like Giolito if they didn't think they can get him right. Doesn't mean they will be successful, but oftem teams are. There's a new guy in town, new pitching coach, and other personel, who look at and evaluate these pitchers. They have something prove, but at the very least it's obvious they think Giolitos issues from the last 1/3 of last season are fixable. If they're right, he leaves, but at least they get a draft pick, OR they could even trade him at the deadline.

 

Wonderful. We're not a real baseball team any more, but we're here for guys who need to rebuild their value.

[moonslav59]

Wonderful. We're not a real baseball team any more, but we're here for guys who need to rebuild their value.

 

Load 'em up and trade them at the deadline.

 

Go WOO!

 

Go Sea Dogs!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Some evaluators had Giolito going for four years. MLB and Fangraphs both had him at the length we attained him for, opt outs mentioned. I know the front office has done a lot wrong, for a long time, but of all the things to get bent out of shape over, this really is mad. He was going to get 2 years. If he pitches well in the first year and opts out, great, we'll tag on a QO and take the extra draft pick, thank you. If he doesn't pitch well, that's the risk we take with giving up the contract he was minimally expected to get.

 

Stop looking for reasons to get angry. There's plenty of real ones hanging from the low hanging branches.

 

Thanks for the advice, but you're either missing the whole point or are still on board with the guise of competing that the front office can no longer sell to most of the fanbase.

 

You're thankful he might have a good year and leave, so we can get a draft pick? Great, maybe the pick becomes a prospect who can make the majors and contribute in 2030.

 

In the meantime, if Giolito is good, why is it good in any way that we'll lose him? Isn't the goal to keep good players?

Losing good players just perpetuates the loser mentality of a club that celebrates staying below the tax threshold.

[notin]

Red, guys like us will just have to watch and enjoy the games in our ignorance. We can know about useless stats like a pitcher's won/loss record and ERA , but we will never be able to figure out his xFIP. That we have to be told by experts who have gone through many hours of specialized training. In short, the eye test matters, but not your eye test.

 

 

Do you really think W-L record tells the story for a pitcher? Clemens was losing in the 7th inning of his first 20 strikeout game. Good thing Dwight Evans homered to make Clemens a better pitcher. Pedro was also losing his famous one hit, 17K performance in the Bronx. Thankfully Mike Stanley homered to make Pedro a better pitcher…

[Bellhorn04]

Do you really think W-L record tells the story for a pitcher? Clemens was losing in the 7th inning of his first 20 strikeout game. Good thing Dwight Evans homered to make Clemens a better pitcher. Pedro was also losing his famous one hit, 17K performance in the Bronx. Thankfully Mike Stanley homered to make Pedro a better pitcher…

 

You can give up 6 runs and win, you can give up 1 run and lose. You'd think that alone would settle the debate.

[Hugh2]

Whether they fix him or not, one year with an opt-out just means Giolito's another place-holder.

 

Big news of the day is that the Sox promoted another employee to Assistant GM -- that makes FOUR more, backing Ace CBO Breslow.

 

Yet, where are the core starting pitchers for the rotation of the next great Red Sox team?

 

Richard Fitts... does anyone else?

 

The Red Sox didn't invent multiple assistant G.M.s

 

The Soxprospects podcast talked about this about 4 months ago right after the bloom firing, about how teams all over baseball are creating new positions, new titles, and having multiple assistant G.M.'s in an attempt to prevent top talent from being plucked from other organizations.

[Hugh2]

Wonderful. We're not a real baseball team any more, but we're here for guys who need to rebuild their value.

 

It's not like teams like LA/NY don't make moves like this. I'm not hating this move in a vacuum because they refuse to sign/trade for reliable talent. I can be angry at both and like the upside of this move. The sum of all the parts might suck, but that doesn't make this an automatic bad contract either.

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox didn't invent multiple assistant G.M.s

 

The Soxprospects podcast talked about this about 4 months ago right after the bloom firing, about how teams all over baseball are creating new positions, new titles, and having multiple assistant G.M.'s in an attempt to prevent top talent from being plucked from other organizations.

 

And what does all this top talent do, exactly?

[Bellhorn04]

It's not like teams like LA/NY don't make moves like this. I'm not hating this move in a vacuum because they refuse to sign/trade for reliable talent. I can be angry at both and like the upside of this move. The sum of all the parts might suck, but that doesn't make this an automatic bad contract either.

 

This move has downside too. Giolito was one of the worst pitchers in history at the end of last season. Will anyone be shocked if he turns out to be another Kluber?

[Dipre]

This move has downside too. Giolito was one of the worst pitchers in history at the end of last season. Will anyone be shocked if he turns out to be another Kluber?

 

Yes. It's almost impossible to be that bad.

[mvp 78]

This move has downside too. Giolito was one of the worst pitchers in history at the end of last season. Will anyone be shocked if he turns out to be another Kluber?

 

I'll be surprised if he's as bad as Kluber, yes.

 

7.04 ERA

5.80 xFIP

 

I'm sure Giolito will do a lot better than that. A better chance he pitches like '21 Richards.

[Hitch]

Thanks for the advice, but you're either missing the whole point or are still on board with the guise of competing that the front office can no longer sell to most of the fanbase.

 

You're thankful he might have a good year and leave, so we can get a draft pick? Great, maybe the pick becomes a prospect who can make the majors and contribute in 2030.

 

In the meantime, if Giolito is good, why is it good in any way that we'll lose him? Isn't the goal to keep good players?

Losing good players just perpetuates the loser mentality of a club that celebrates staying below the tax threshold.

 

 

Because he comes with concerns and we don't know what we've got with him. Clearly. For f*** sake.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes. It's almost impossible to be that bad.

 

I'm immensely reassured.

[Bellhorn04]

Because he comes with concerns and we don't know what we've got with him. Clearly. For f*** sake.

 

Unfortunately you can say that about our entire rotation.

[Hugh2]

This move has downside too. Giolito was one of the worst pitchers in history at the end of last season. Will anyone be shocked if he turns out to be another Kluber?

 

At the end, but what did he do the first 2/3 of the season in Chicago (which was the majority of the season)?????

 

In 121 innings he had a 3.79 era 118 ERA+ 7.9 H/9 9.7 K/9 Then he literally completely fell apart. I have no ideal why, but I find it interesting his fall from grace matches up perfectly with his wife filing for divorce and leaving him. That makes me think it's a head problem and NOT "stuff problem" Kluber was done, washed up. Giolito is 7-8 years younger.

 

Look, I don't know if he's the next Kluber or not. Who does? but I think theres a lot more reasons to believe Lucas can bounce back in 2024 than there was for Kluber last year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Unfortunately you can say that about our entire rotation.

 

Except if Giolito stills stinks, the Red Sox have to pay him another $19M in 2025... you know, the year some fans think the FO is really saving up for to actually go for it.

[Hugh2]

And what does all this top talent do, exactly?

 

I don't work for the Boston Red Sox, nor have I ever worked for a front office. I don't specifically know what their duties are.

[Bellhorn04]

At the end, but what did he do the first 2/3 of the season in Chicago (which was the majority of the season)?????

 

In 121 innings he had a 3.79 era 118 ERA+ 7.9 H/9 9.7 K/9 Then he literally completely fell apart. I have no ideal why, but I find it interesting his fall from grace matches up perfectly with his wife filing for divorce and leaving him. That makes me think it's a head problem and NOT "stuff problem" Kluber was done, washed up. Giolito is 7-8 years younger.

 

Look, I don't know if he's the next Kluber or not. Who does? but I think theres a lot more reasons to believe Lucas can bounce back in 2024 than there was for Kluber last year.

 

His FIP with the White Sox was 4.43 last year.

 

Coincidentally he has a career ERA of 4.43 and a career FIP of 4.44.

 

Yes, he has pitched well for stretches, I know. But he could be a disaster, and no one will be shocked.

[Hugh2]

His FIP with the White Sox was 4.43 last year.

 

Coincidentally he has a career ERA of 4.43 and a career FIP of 4.44.

 

Yes, he has pitched well for stretches, I know. But he could be a disaster, and no one will be shocked.

 

Yes, no one will be shocked, INCLUDING me. I also will not be shocked if he pitches very well. I suspect that if his head is right, as typically most men are a year post seperation that even if he isn't great he won't be as bad as he was the last 1/3 of last year. Even if he's the pitcher he was the first half that would be fine for 40/2.

 

He's still only what, 28, 29???? I'm fairly optimistic on this signing. Not going to Vegas and betting on him winning a CY Young, but my take is certainly realistic.

[moonslav59]

This move has downside too. Giolito was one of the worst pitchers in history at the end of last season. Will anyone be shocked if he turns out to be another Kluber?

 

"I figure the odds be 50-50."

 

- Frank Zappa

[notin]

This move has downside too. Giolito was one of the worst pitchers in history at the end of last season. Will anyone be shocked if he turns out to be another Kluber?

 

Yes. Kluber only pitched 55 IP. I expect more from Giolito…

[notin]

You can give up 6 runs and win, you can give up 1 run and lose. You'd think that alone would settle the debate.

 

But… but… but… the object of the game is to win…

[notin]

This move has downside too. Giolito was one of the worst pitchers in history at the end of last season. Will anyone be shocked if he turns out to be another Kluber?

 

Also, “one of the worst pitchers in history” feels a tad melodramatic…

[Bellhorn04]

Yes. Kluber only pitched 55 IP. I expect more from Giolito…

 

Giolito is a guy who takes a lickin' and keeps on tickin'..

[Bellhorn04]

Also, “one of the worst pitchers in history” feels a tad melodramatic…

 

21 home runs allowed in 63.1 innings has to make him a contendah at least...

[moonslav59]

At the end, but what did he do the first 2/3 of the season in Chicago (which was the majority of the season)?????

 

In 121 innings he had a 3.79 era 118 ERA+ 7.9 H/9 9.7 K/9 Then he literally completely fell apart. I have no ideal why, but I find it interesting his fall from grace matches up perfectly with his wife filing for divorce and leaving him. That makes me think it's a head problem and NOT "stuff problem" Kluber was done, washed up. Giolito is 7-8 years younger.

 

Look, I don't know if he's the next Kluber or not. Who does? but I think theres a lot more reasons to believe Lucas can bounce back in 2024 than there was for Kluber last year.

 

Why stop there? Go back another year:

 

ERA/FIP

1st 10 '22: 3.88/4.41 (add 1 game: 4.78/4.84

2nd 10 '22: 5.94/4.13 Take away that one game: 5.06/3.57)

3rd 10 '22: 4.88/3.65

1st 11 '23: 3.98/4.17

2nd 11 '23: 3.71/4.89

3rd 11 '23: 7.14/6.88

 

5/12 bad

4/12 ok-good

3/12 good-very good

 

[Hitch]

A couple of noteworthy quotes from

@alexspeier’s piece today:

 

“The Sox remain determined to upgrade their rotation and, secondarily, add power to their lineup. But rather than throwing bags of money at those holes, they have bid with the market rather than beyond it in free agency while scouring the trade market for starters with multiple years of control.”

 

“According to multiple sources, the Sox are not currently looking to cut payroll as an end unto itself, but are open to offloading some of their larger guaranteed contracts if they believe they can build a better, and better-rounded, team for 2024 and beyond by doing so. That could take the form of additions — particularly starting pitchers — for the coming season.”

[Hugh2]

A couple of noteworthy quotes from

@alexspeier’s piece today:

 

“The Sox remain determined to upgrade their rotation and, secondarily, add power to their lineup. But rather than throwing bags of money at those holes, they have bid with the market rather than beyond it in free agency while scouring the trade market for starters with multiple years of control.”

 

“According to multiple sources, the Sox are not currently looking to cut payroll as an end unto itself, but are open to offloading some of their larger guaranteed contracts if they believe they can build a better, and better-rounded, team for 2024 and beyond by doing so. That could take the form of additions — particularly starting pitchers — for the coming season.”

 

This is exactly what I said last week when everyone thought they were cutting payroll and weren't willing to go over the limit, stating that trading Chris Sales money prevented them from buying a better starting pitcher.

 

It doesn't. Of course they still might not upgrade the rotation anyways.

[Bellhorn04]

A couple of noteworthy quotes from

@alexspeier’s piece today:

 

“The Sox remain determined to upgrade their rotation and, secondarily, add power to their lineup. But rather than throwing bags of money at those holes, they have bid with the market rather than beyond it in free agency while scouring the trade market for starters with multiple years of control.”

 

"Bid with the market rather than beyond it"?

 

Some might say that's just another way of saying they never have the top bid.

 

Actually, I don't know WTF "bid with the market" means in the context of baseball free agents. It's gibberish.