Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Randy Red Sox]

I'd add Merrifield, but yes, some might buy that. Not me.

 

If they think O'Neill can play CF, and they probably do, since they thought Duvall could, then yes, we will not pay for another Of'er, unless we trade Refsnyder and add someone like Michael Taylor.

 

If we don't sign Yamo, Snell or Monty of trade for someone like Burnes, I'm calling the winter a failure. We could sign 3 tier three pitchers, and it's still a sham.

 

 

Merrifield is a backup type at this stage of his career but yes he is better than what we have. I dont see any way we get Yamo or even Snell and I don't consider Montgomery as a true ace. Breslow better act quick on Yamo or Snell or they will be gone. Hey why not trade for Alex Manoah too . Tyler On'Neill needs another head case to keep him company.

[dgalehouse]

When you think about it, this might be the best time for Henry to sell the whole Fenway Sports package. The profit may never be greater than right now. He is not getting any younger, so maybe he should sell and spend the rest of his privileged life sailing the seas on his upgraded yacht.

[notin]

Does it matter? i guess that it kind of looks as though if you want the best, you are likely going to have to pay for it.

 

You’re the one who brought up spending wisely. Now you’re saying it doesn’t matter?

[cp176]

Zero.

 

I was talking hypothetical to the poster who is wondering why I'm happy Ohtani signed for $700M with an NL team.

 

I would not have been happy had JH spent $700M on Ohtani, because I know we'd be losing, because $700M would have to turn to $1.2B for us to have a chance at winning.

 

Those chances are way longer than us signing Yamo, Monty, Lugo Duvall and Merrifield.

 

This is really a debate on why isn't JH spending like a maniac. If he doesn't spend like LAD and NYM, apparently, we need a new owner.

 

I'm not going to expect that sort of spending. I do think we need to spend up to the second line to come close to relevance. I'm not expecting it, and I refuse to get optimistic about it happening, but it could happen, and I hope it does.

 

If it does, I'll be satisfied we are making an effort.

 

The second part is even more difficult to get optimistic about: Breslow will have to be enar perfect with every signing and trade, even if we spend up to but not over the second line, especially looking at today's market prices for true talent.

 

cots has us at about $57M under the first line. There is not much we can do by trade to bring that number down, except by trading Sale, Devrs, Story or Yoshi, so I'm not expecting that to happen. So, add 19M to stay under the second line, and that leaves about $76M to spend beyond O'Neill.

 

For argument's sake, is any of these plans enough to get us to be playoff faves?

 

Per year salaries

A) 30M Yamo, 25M Monty, 12M Lugo and 8M Duvall or Merrifield (I'm not sure we can get all 4 for $76M/yr)

25M Monty, 16M (arb) Burnes (via trade) 12M Lugo, 8M Duvall, 8M Merrifield and $? on a catcher (Then, use the lost Sale money plus the arb cost of $16M to extend Burnes.)

C) 30M Yamo, 18M Stroman, 16M Burnes, 8M Duvall, plus a catcher

 

Some of my estimates may be off, but you get the gist, right?

 

 

I would not have been happy signing any single player to that type of contract but what alternative is really in play for us? The right targets need to be clearly determined and then the money needs to be paid. In recent years, I don't think that our larger contracts that have been paid out really have been all that great. Like everyone else, I'm anxious to see what happens going forward.

[vjcsmoke]

Just a side note but how does Ohtani's 700m dollar 10 year contract affect the market? So 70m dollars a year is the new standard for a star player?

 

Uhh if that's the case I think we're gonna get priced out of a lot of free agents?!

[notin]

Just a side note but how does Ohtani's 700m dollar 10 year contract affect the market? So 70m dollars a year is the new standard for a star player?

 

Uhh if that's the case I think we're gonna get priced out of a lot of free agents?!

 

At some point 29 other teams will as will.

 

Actually it’s $35mil for a star pitcher (which is not new) and $30mill for a star DH (which is).

 

And $5mill for the convenience of being able to put both of them on the IL at once!!

[Bellhorn04]

FWIW there is speculation that so much of Ohtani's money is deferred that the AAV might get knocked down to $50 million or so, which would put it in the range that was expected going into the offseason.

[cp176]

You’re the one who brought up spending wisely. Now you’re saying it doesn’t matter?

 

You do know how to pick and choose the parts of sentences that you wish to respond to don't you notin. It's a queer little trick we see daily in the world of politics but some do it better than others. I have not one clue what it means for a billionaire to spend his money wisely nor do i care how he spends it. If you are a multi billionaire trying to not just exist but actually win in a professional athletic environment, then i guess you better be willing to spend. Now before you jump all over that one, let me say that I do care about how jh spends his money as in I want him to spend it. I don't want him to spend it on players in free agency that might be slightly better than average. Since i do not happen to think that multi billionaires are particularly restricted by budgetary constraints, maybe i should have said that jh should be looking for maximum bang for his buck. That's all i got for you notin. Sorry if it doesn't meet the high standards of this forum that you would like to see.

[moonslav59]

I would not have been happy signing any single player to that type of contract but what alternative is really in play for us? The right targets need to be clearly determined and then the money needs to be paid. In recent years, I don't think that our larger contracts that have been paid out really have been all that great. Like everyone else, I'm anxious to see what happens going forward.

 

I agree.

 

I was working off the premise of someone saying would I be happy if we signed Ohtani at $700M. That assumes $700M was available, and I would not be happy we spent it that way. I can come up with many scenarios where spending $500-700M on others would be way better.

 

Maybe the real questions are:

 

1. Can we get relevant, again, by spending enough to be top 5-8 and not try to come close to LAD, NYM or even NYY & TEX?

 

2. Is it possible Breslow can do a better job by focusing on immediately building the rotation and building up our pitching in our farm system, we can get back to relevance by spending like a 9-12 ranked spending team?

 

I think the odds are zero we will be a top 3 spending team for a long time. We can hope and wish. We can say JH can spend that much, if he wants. We can scream at him for not doing so, but the reality is, he isn't going to. We might be pushing it to hope we get to a top 7 or 8 spending team in the next year or two, even with the Devers extension kicking in, next year and Sale still on the books.

 

We need to spend wisely on quality more than quantity, IMO. I may be alone in thinking Bloom did a decent job building up a supporting foundation on the 26 man roster and the farm. I think we are just 3-5 key and major additions away from having a decent chance at glory. I don't think it will take $700M to do that, if we do it wisely, and that does not mean nickel and diming like Bloom did.

 

IMO, Brez cannot repeat signings like Story and Yoshi, although both may help in 2024. He needs to be near perfect with his big moves, but he needs to focus on just 3-5 and not 6-8 moves. If he had over $70M per year to offer, this winter, it can be done. He's going to have to overpay on a couple overpays. When someone outbids him, he needs to kick in more.

 

Again, I'm not expecting it, but even with a modest winter budget, it can be done. It might be close to impossible, if we try to stay under the first tax line, and if we do, I won't be surprised. I will know the sham is continuing for at least one more season.

 

[notin]

You do know how to pick and choose the parts of sentences that you wish to respond to don't you notin. It's a queer little trick we see daily in the world of politics but some do it better than others. I have not one clue what it means for a billionaire to spend his money wisely nor do i care how he spends it. If you are a multi billionaire trying to not just exist but actually win in a professional athletic environment, then i guess you better be willing to spend. Now before you jump all over that one, let me say that I do care about how jh spends his money as in I want him to spend it. I don't want him to spend it on players in free agency that might be slightly better than average. Since i do not happen to think that multi billionaires are particularly restricted by budgetary constraints, maybe i should have said that jh should be looking for maximum bang for his buck. That's all i got for you notin. Sorry if it doesn't meet the high standards of this forum that you would like to see.

 

Are you f***ing kidding me? You said the Sox don’t spend way. Fine. Many have said that, including me on occasion. So all I asked was if you thought Ohtani was spending wisely, and you turn it into all kinds of “out of context” accusations and personal attacks. Seriously? It wasn’t out of context and the rest was uncalled for…

[Bellhorn04]

When you think about it, this might be the best time for Henry to sell the whole Fenway Sports package. The profit may never be greater than right now. He is not getting any younger, so maybe he should sell and spend the rest of his privileged life sailing the seas on his upgraded yacht.

 

FSG keeps expanding. I think they're getting into golf now too.

[cp176]

Are you f***ing kidding me? You said the Sox don’t spend way. Fine. Many have said that, including me on occasion. So all I asked was if you thought Ohtani was spending wisely, and you turn it into all kinds of “out of context” accusations and personal attacks. Seriously? It wasn’t out of context and the rest was uncalled for…

 

I had a nice response for you notin but I had to delete it. Safe to say that even if we happened to agree about anything, we likely would never be on the same page...

[notin]

I had a nice response for you notin but I had to delete it. Safe to say that even if we happened to agree about anything, we likely would never be on the same page...

 

I don’t know of we will ever even know if we agree, since asking your opinion on a simple question the entire baseball world is discussing just launches you into a tirade about what a victim you are.

Edited December 10, 2023 by notin

[cp176]

I don’t know of we will ever even know if we agree, since asking your opinion on a simple question the entire baseball world is discussing just launches you into a tirade about what a victim you are.

 

I don't see myself as a victim at all. I see you as someone who is constantly looking not simply for an answer to a question but trying to find ways to embarrass someone for viewpoints that they might have. I think that I have a pretty good grip on where you tend to come from. If you want to ask me questions here without the snippets of clever little inuendo you are known for, that would be fine. If not so be it.

[notin]

I don't see myself as a victim at all. I see you as someone who is constantly looking not simply for an answer to a question but trying to find ways to embarrass someone for viewpoints that they might have. I think that I have a pretty good grip on where you tend to come from. If you want to ask me questions here without the snippets of clever little inuendo you are known for, that would be fine. If not so be it.

 

You clearly have me confused with Old Red. I’ve disagreed with other posters hundreds of times and they be fished with me hundreds more. I’ve corrected people. I’ve been corrected as well. The main problem I have is some of the ones who like to correct me feel they should be above being corrected.

 

You clearly don’t have any sort of grip on where I come from…

[Old Red]

You clearly have me confused with Old Red. I’ve disagreed with other posters hundreds of times and they be fished with me hundreds more. I’ve corrected people. I’ve been corrected as well. The main problem I have is some of the ones who like to correct me feel they should be above being corrected.

 

You clearly don’t have any sort of grip on where I come from…

 

Don’t get me into this, and stop acting like the victim. You are one of the biggest ass clowns on here to watch, and see if every I is dotted, and every t is crossed, and then try to decipher a meaning. He doesn’t have you confused with anyone, and he has you pegged.🙈🤭🤮.

[notin]

Don’t get me into this, and stop acting like the victim. You are one of the biggest ass clowns on here to watch, and see if every I is dotted, and every t is crossed, and then try to decipher a meaning. He doesn’t have you confused with anyone, and he has you pegged..

 

You were called for behavior you’ve exhibited. Simple as that…

[jad]

I could be me, but I doubt there are any fans of any baseball team that would be upset today if their club just signed Ohtani.

 

I know there are some who "can't believe someone paid that much money to a guy to play a child's game" -- just like every single time an athlete breaks the all-time contract record, since the beginning of free agency almost half a century ago (and even before that when owners showed gratitude to stars during the Reserve Clause).

 

But Ohtani's not just the greatest two-way ballplayer of all-time... he's one of the most famous people on the planet. He's Elvis.

 

The Dodgers aren't always right, but they always make a plan and are decisive. They knew exactly what they were doing when they traded for Mookie, and when Ohtani becomes an over-priced DH, they'll cut their losses. And move on to the next marketing target for their sustained winners... while the sustained losers gripe about their record, wishing they at least had stars to root for and give them hope.

 

Exactly!

[notin]

I could be me, but I doubt there are any fans of any baseball team that would be upset today if their club just signed Ohtani.

 

I know there are some who "can't believe someone paid that much money to a guy to play a child's game" -- just like every single time an athlete breaks the all-time contract record, since the beginning of free agency almost half a century ago (and even before that when owners showed gratitude to stars during the Reserve Clause).

 

But Ohtani's not just the greatest two-way ballplayer of all-time... he's one of the most famous people on the planet. He's Elvis.

 

The Dodgers aren't always right, but they always make a plan and are decisive. They knew exactly what they were doing when they traded for Mookie, and when Ohtani becomes an over-priced DH, they'll cut their losses. And move on to the next marketing target for their sustained winners... while the sustained losers gripe about their record, wishing they at least had stars to root for and give them hope.

 

 

My big problem had the Sox given Ohtani that contract is I just don’t have faith in Henry bulking up the payroll to $350mill. And if he keeps it in the $200-220mil range, then Ohtani, Sale , Devers, Story and Yoshida take up about $170mill, leaving $30-50mill for the remaining 35 roster spots.

 

I don’t see that as a formula for a winner…

[Larry Cook]

How sad that we might lose lugo because Kansas city is going to out bid us

[moonslav59]

My big problem had the Sox given Ohtani that contract is I just don’t have faith in Henry bulking up the payroll to $350mill. And if he keeps it in the $200-220mil range, then Ohtani, Sale , Devers, Story and Yoshida take up about $170mill, leaving $30-50mill for the remaining 35 roster spots.

 

I don’t see that as a formula for a winner…

 

It's going to have to come from the farm, current pre arb player becoming arb players and some kind of turn around for Story and Yoshi.

 

I don't think we are as far away as some think we are. The problem is, we need 3-4 major additions, and with costs the way they are, we may need to use the farm to get 1 or 2.

 

Again, I'm not projecting or expecting JH to spend big, this winter, but if he agrees to go up to but not over the 2nd tax line, and Brez spends it wisely, we can be playoff contenders in 2024. Once a couple of our big 3-5 prospects start contributing, we can get back into the mix, but there is very little room for error.

 

If we trade a top 3 prospect, it better be the right one, AND the return better not be a one year rental or a bust.

 

If we spend $70-75M, we can get two very good SP'ers and more. It's not absurd to think we can do that.

 

If we choose to not go over the tax line, and spend every penny to stay a cent below it, we'd have $56M to spend on 2 SP'ers and a 2Bman. Or, we trade for one of those 3 major open slots. I'm not sure we can do it for $56M, unless we make a big splash trade.

 

There are ways to do it. It just takes the will and the checkbook.

[moonslav59]

My big problem had the Sox given Ohtani that contract is I just don’t have faith in Henry bulking up the payroll to $350mill. And if he keeps it in the $200-220mil range, then Ohtani, Sale , Devers, Story and Yoshida take up about $170mill, leaving $30-50mill for the remaining 35 roster spots.

 

I don’t see that as a formula for a winner…

 

Agreed, No way we could win with Ohtani and a budget near the tax line. I doubt we could even at the second line for a couple years, before resetting.

 

(I meant to start my last post with this.)

[Dipre]

How sad that we might lose lugo because Kansas city is going to out bid us

 

Lugo's not particularly good. Yama-San/Montgomery tier please.

[Dipre]

Agreed, No way we could win with Ohtani and a budget near the tax line. I doubt we could even at the second line for a couple years, before resetting.

 

(I meant to start my last post with this.)

 

Ohtani's an amazing investment for the Dodgers. If Henry still had some balls, he could've ponied up the money. Then again, it's clear his desire was to stay on the West Coast. It's widely reported they didn't even call Cohen, who might have given him a billion bucks.

[notin]

How sad that we might lose lugo because Kansas city is going to out bid us

 

I’m ok with no Lugo…

[moonslav59]

Ohtani's an amazing investment for the Dodgers. If Henry still had some balls, he could've ponied up the money. Then again, it's clear his desire was to stay on the West Coast. It's widely reported they didn't even call Cohen, who might have given him a billion bucks.

 

I'm glad JH did not decide to pony up $701M, unless it was going to end up being $1.2B, because we still need pitching.

 

Just pony up $500-600M and get us two of the top 3-4 remaining SP'ers on the board.

 

Yamo

Monty

Snell

and maybe Imanaga

[mvp 78]

How sad that we might lose lugo because Kansas city is going to out bid us

 

Down bad for Lugo? WTH?

[mvp 78]

It's going to have to come from the farm, current pre arb player becoming arb players and some kind of turn around for Story and Yoshi.

 

I don't think we are as far away as some think we are. The problem is, we need 3-4 major additions, and with costs the way they are, we may need to use the farm to get 1 or 2.

 

Again, I'm not projecting or expecting JH to spend big, this winter, but if he agrees to go up to but not over the 2nd tax line, and Brez spends it wisely, we can be playoff contenders in 2024. Once a couple of our big 3-5 prospects start contributing, we can get back into the mix, but there is very little room for error.

 

If we trade a top 3 prospect, it better be the right one, AND the return better not be a one year rental or a bust.

 

If we spend $70-75M, we can get two very good SP'ers and more. It's not absurd to think we can do that.

 

If we choose to not go over the tax line, and spend every penny to stay a cent below it, we'd have $56M to spend on 2 SP'ers and a 2Bman. Or, we trade for one of those 3 major open slots. I'm not sure we can do it for $56M, unless we make a big splash trade.

 

There are ways to do it. It just takes the will and the checkbook.

 

If they stay under the tax line again, there should be pitch forks. The should spend right up to the 2nd CBT threshold. Trade prospects for a starter. Sign Yamamoto no matter what. They are the BOSTON RED SOX.

[mvp 78]

Ohtani's an amazing investment for the Dodgers. If Henry still had some balls, he could've ponied up the money. Then again, it's clear his desire was to stay on the West Coast. It's widely reported they didn't even call Cohen, who might have given him a billion bucks.

 

Henry is concerned about CBT implications and I wouldn't want to spend 70AAV on what could be a DH only guy.

[mvp 78]

I'm glad JH did not decide to pony up $701M, unless it was going to end up being $1.2B, because we still need pitching.

 

Just pony up $500-600M and get us two of the top 3-4 remaining SP'ers on the board.

 

Yamo

Monty

Snell

and maybe Imanaga

 

Yes, I'd rather have Yamamoto and Montgomery plus than Ohtani's contract.