Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[moonslav59]

At this moment in time I feel somewhat pessimistic about 2024, because I don't think our core is as strong as some other folks seem to think it is. Here are the fWAR's for position players:

 

Devers 3.3

Duran 2.4

Verdugo 2.2

Duvall 1.9

Casas 1.7

Turner 1.3

Wong 0.7

Yoshida 0.5

 

The only way this team is going to be good in 2024 is with additions from outside and advances from inside.

 

We do see some pretty awesome starting 9's on other teams, especially in our own division. It might take more than just "fixing the rotation" to get us seriously "back in the game."

 

Other teams faced injuries, like we did, but I do see some hopes in improvements based just on more games played. While Story's -0.2 fWAR does not fit into that group, I do think a healthy Story will be vastly better than the circus we saw there, this year.

 

Reyes + Urias gave us a +0.6 fWAR in about 90 games. That could easily reach 1.0 with 160 games player between them, and that's if Urias does not return to his previous form.

 

Project Duran to 150 games, and he leads the team in fWAR. (I don't expect that, but he did look promising.)

 

Casas missed time, early and late. Any improvement in defense could see him near 2.5.

 

Abreu + Rafaela are at +1.0 fWAR in just 55 games. It's hard to know where they end up.

 

Wong and McGuire totaled a 1.3 fWAR. That's about middle of the pack with improvement possible.

 

Devers, Dugo and Yoshi are hard to project. We may need 2 of them to bust out to have a real chance.

 

Bringing Duvall back and his 1.9 fWAR in just 87 games provides some room for a boost, too.

 

Lots of ifs.

 

[notin]

Why do tiny, initial stat lines matter?

 

They prove nothing. If they did, Dalbec would be an allstar.

 

… and Eric Wedge a Hall of Famer…

[notin]

At this moment in time I feel somewhat pessimistic about 2024, because I don't think our core is as strong as some other folks seem to think it is. Here are the fWAR's for position players:

 

Devers 3.3

Duran 2.4

Verdugo 2.2

Duvall 1.9

Casas 1.7

Turner 1.3

Wong 0.7

Yoshida 0.5

 

The only way this team is going to be good in 2024 is with additions from outside and advances from inside.

 

 

Probably worth noting that a starting lineup with Duran, Verdugo, Duvall, Turner and Yoshida isn’t going to be good defensively. Mostly because that’s having 5 players into 4 OF/DH at the expense of a shortstop.

 

Next year’s Sox could be very improved defensively in CF and at SS…

[moonslav59]

Probably worth noting that a starting lineup with Duran, Verdugo, Duvall, Turner and Yoshida isn’t going to be good defensively. Mostly because that’s having 5 players into 4 OF/DH at the expense of a shortstop.

 

Next year’s Sox could be very improved defensively in CF and at SS…

 

...and 2B and LF, if Yoshida DHs 120+ games.

 

C, 1B & 3B offer hope, but nothing to suggest improvement is likely.

[notin]

...and 2B and LF, if Yoshida DHs 120+ games.

 

C, 1B & 3B offer hope, but nothing to suggest improvement is likely.

 

A lot depends on the new boss and the new budget, but this team could DFA any or all of Jacques, Garza, Weiss, Dalbec, Gillaspie, Llovera, Ort, Mills and Mata and possibly non-tender Urias, McGuire and Schreiber.

 

I do doubt they all go but they will have plenty of room too as to the roster…

[moonslav59]

A lot depends on the new boss and the new budget, but this team could DFA any or all of Jacques, Garza, Weiss, Dalbec, Gillaspie, Llovera, Ort, Mills and Mata and possibly non-tender Urias, McGuire and Schreiber.

 

I do doubt they all go but they will have plenty of room too as to the roster…

 

I could see them saying no to Joely's $4.25 option ($500K buyout,) too.

 

Also, add to the possible DFA list:

Walter

DHam

 

We may also trade Duran or Dugo, or maybe Refsnyder, if we bring back Duvall.

[notin]

I could see them saying no to Joely's $4.25 option ($500K buyout,) too.

 

Also, add to the possible DFA list:

Walter

DHam

 

We may also trade Duran or Dugo, or maybe Refsnyder, if we bring back Duvall.

 

I doubt Rodriguez’ option gets picked up. He will join a few others (Paxton, Turner, and likely Duvall) on the free agent market.

 

 

They are all trade candidates. One can only assume (hope) the corner OF/DH logjam gets addressed.

 

But yes Hamilton is another DFA candidate. I think Brandon Walter is safe. He and Murphy have options, which increases their usefulness to the Sox going forward…

Edited September 26, 2023 by notin

[illinoisredsox]

Not sure why people keep saying Turner will definitely be a free agent; he has a two year contract with player option; he will stay if he wants to or he can choose a somewhat hefty buyout and see what he can get elsewhere. There is no corresponding team option.

 

Now at this stage of his career, he may very well want to pursue another ring; it would shock me if he didn’t. But nothing is definite at this point. We’ll know a week after the a World Series.

Edited September 26, 2023 by illinoisredsox

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But yes Hamilton is another DFA candidate. …

 

WHA- ? The Sox just awarded him their Defensive Player of the Year Award for minor leaguers!

 

Don't we need better defenders? And didn't we see enough of Hamilton's D skills in Boston this year?

 

Skilly organization...

[notin]

WHA- ? The Sox just awarded him their Defensive Player of the Year Award for minor leaguers!

 

Don't we need better defenders? And didn't we see enough of Hamilton's D skills in Boston this year?

 

Skilly organization...

 

 

You think he isn’t a candidate?

 

Obviously the Sox aren’t going to DFA everyone but Hamilton hasn’t established himself as much more than a weak bat utility option. He could still have an MLB career, possibly in Boston. But he is also on the list of players who might not fit into the new CBO’s plans and might be deemed expendable…

[moonslav59]

I doubt Rodriguez’ option gets picked up. He will join a few others (Paxton, Turner, and likely Duvall) on the free agent market.

 

 

They are all trade candidates. One can only assume (hope) the corner OF/DH logjam gets addressed.

 

But yes Hamilton is another DFA candidate. I think Brandon Walter is safe. He and Murphy have options, which increases their usefulness to the Sox going forward…

 

Agreed on Walter, although he could be part of a trade package, if we think we need to open up a roster slot for a FA addition.

[moonslav59]

WHA- ? The Sox just awarded him their Defensive Player of the Year Award for minor leaguers!

 

Don't we need better defenders? And didn't we see enough of Hamilton's D skills in Boston this year?

 

Skilly organization...

 

He might be back, but not at that option price.

 

I also think they now see Yoshida s the DH and with a bunch of LF'ers on the roster, it makes too much sense to not move Yoshi there.

[moonslav59]

WHA- ? The Sox just awarded him their Defensive Player of the Year Award for minor leaguers!

 

Don't we need better defenders? And didn't we see enough of Hamilton's D skills in Boston this year?

 

Skilly organization...

 

I think they gave that award to Dalbec, too, so there is that.

[notin]

Not sure why people keep saying Turner will definitely be a free agent; he has a two year contract with player option; he will stay if he wants to or he can choose a somewhat hefty buyout and see what he can get elsewhere. There is no corresponding team option.

 

Now at this stage of his career, he may very well want to pursue another ring; it would shock me if he didn’t. But nothing is definite at this point. We’ll know a week after the a World Series.

 

His hefty option all but assures an opt out. He had a good enough season that he will draw interest; that is definite as well. And he needs to only get an offer of $6.8mill to exceed his total if he opts back in. Given that we live in a world that pays Leury Garcia $5.5mill, a bet of Turner exceeding $6.8mill is roughly equal to betting the sun will rise tomorrow.

 

As for what Turner wants - a shot at another ring? A starting role? As much cash as possible? - none of us know. But he will very likely have choices that offer some combination of those options.

 

But he is opting out. This is not up in the air…

[notin]

I think they gave that award to Dalbec, too, so there is that.

 

Devers, too. Right?

[notin]

Agreed on Walter, although he could be part of a trade package, if we think we need to open up a roster slot for a FA addition.

 

Given the 13 DFA and non-tender candidates I listed, moving Walter in a trade to clear a spot isn’t too likely…

[moonslav59]

Devers, too. Right?

 

They should rename the award The Wish He Could Be better at Defense Award.

[moonslav59]

Given the 13 DFA and non-tender candidates I listed, moving Walter in a trade to clear a spot isn’t too likely…

 

True, but some of those slots go to returning 60 Day IL players and another 5-7 for Rule 5 additions.

 

If we do as I suggest, and add just 3-4 quality FAs or trade additions, instead of 7-10 "quantity additions" like we have in the past few years, we won't need to trade Walter to open a slot, but if we sign a bunch or mediocre FAs, then he may get squeezed.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You think he isn’t a candidate?

 

Obviously the Sox aren’t going to DFA everyone but Hamilton hasn’t established himself as much more than a weak bat utility option. He could still have an MLB career, possibly in Boston. But he is also on the list of players who might not fit into the new CBO’s plans and might be deemed expendable…

 

Honestly -- this might be the first time I've ever said this as Sox fan -- there is not one single player on the entire MLB roster or in the entire farm system that I wouldn't include in a trade, let walk in free agency, or just cut and say goodbye.

 

This big league club is so far from contention -- legitimate World Series contention, SamKennedy -- that I'd like to see a new wheeling-dealing GM come in and engineer a multi-team blockbuster trade that cleans house of about 10 players from Boston and totally turns over the line-up and rotation.

[moonslav59]

Honestly -- this might be the first time I've ever said this as Sox fan -- there is not one single player on the entire MLB roster or in the entire farm system that I wouldn't include in a trade, let walk in free agency, or just cut and say goodbye.

 

This big league club is so far from contention -- legitimate World Series contention, SamKennedy -- that I'd like to see a new wheeling-dealing GM come in and engineer a multi-team blockbuster trade that cleans house of about 10 players from Boston and totally turns over the line-up and rotation.

 

I'd trade anyone for a better return.

[moonslav59]

Areas we may be able to improve by shifting innings played from one player(s) to another...

 

OAA at SS

+6 Story

+4 Chang

-1 Rafaela

-2 DHam

-13 Kike

 

2B

-1 Reyes

-4 EValdez

-4 Kike

 

LF

0 Duran

-2 Refsnyder

-9 Yoshida

-5 Urias

 

[Nick]

For 2025, we are only committed to 4 players, Devers, Yoshida, Story and Whitlock totaling $75M.

 

We are $144M under luxury tax threshhold.

 

Not sure why everyone here is depressed.

 

C Teel/Wong

1B Casas

2B Yorke

SS Mayer/Story

3B Devers

OF Rafaela

OF Duran

OF Abreu

OF Anthony

DH Yoshida

 

Go buy some pitching.

 

See how easy it is?

[Old Red]

For 2025, we are only committed to 4 players, Devers, Yoshida, Story and Whitlock totaling $75M.

 

We are $144M under luxury tax threshhold.

 

Not sure why everyone here is depressed.

 

C Teel/Wong

1B Casas

2B Yorke

SS Mayer/Story

3B Devers

OF Rafaela

OF Duran

OF Abreu

OF Anthony

DH Yoshida

 

Go buy some pitching.

 

See how easy it is?

 

Just, because you have money to spend doesn’t mean what you buy will turn the Red Sox into a good team. Mets, and SD are examples of that.

[moonslav59]

For 2025, we are only committed to 4 players, Devers, Yoshida, Story and Whitlock totaling $75M.

 

We are $144M under luxury tax threshhold.

 

Not sure why everyone here is depressed.

 

C

1B

2B

SS Story

3B Devers

OF

OF

OF

OF

DH Yoshida

 

Go buy some pitching.

 

See how easy it is?

 

I fixed it for you. No money is committed to any of the others you listed.

 

The pitching staff has one name:

 

Whitlock

[moonslav59]

Just, because you have money to spend doesn’t mean what you buy will turn the Red Sox into a good team. Mets, and SD are examples of that.

 

He didn't list any out of system additions.

[Nick]

I fixed it for you. No money is committed to any of the others you listed.

 

The pitching staff has one name:

 

Whitlock

 

I was making a point that most of our position players are Pre-Arb guys and cheap.

[illinoisredsox]

Just, because you have money to spend doesn’t mean what you buy will turn the Red Sox into a good team. Mets, and SD are examples of that.

 

Thank you Captain Obvious

[dgalehouse]

Just, because you have money to spend doesn’t mean what you buy will turn the Red Sox into a good team. Mets, and SD are examples of that.

 

The Mets and Padres are good teams that are having bad seasons. The Mets lost Edwin Diaz ,arguably the best closer in the game , for the entire year due to an injury in the WBC. That disrupted their whole bullpen. Things went downhill. It is hard to know what went wrong with the Padres. They have far too much talent to have had such a poor year. But it is a fact that the best players will cost more money. And they will want the security of longer contracts. Trying to build a great team cheaply , while depending on your farm may sometimes work for a while , but it is a very tricky and tedious process. And how many fans have the patience for that ?

[mvp 78]

Padres: 77-80

732 Runs Scored

642 Runs Allowed

Pythag: 88-69

 

Walkoff Wins: 2

Walkoff Losses: 12

[Bellhorn04]

I'd trade anyone for a better return.

 

There it is again!