Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[notin]

Sub Yamamoto for Snell, trade for Senga and we can get a big Japanese TV deal to pay for them all.

 

Seiya Suzuki is pissed at you right now…

[moonslav59]

Seiya Suzuki is pissed at you right now…

 

Ok, trade Dugo for SS.

[Tedballgame]

One tier one and one tier two would be a dream come true, but we might be lucky to get one tier two and a tier three.

 

We'll never come to a consensus on wo belongs in tier 1, 2 or 3, but my top two tiers would include:

 

One

Yamamoto

Nola

Snell

Kershaw

 

Two

S Gray

Montgomery

Morton

ERod (opt out)

 

Borderline 2-3 tier

Giolito

Wacha

Stroman

 

Lots of dogs on that list.

[notin]

Thinking the real Sox best trade target is Corban Burnes.

 

Burnes is headed into his final arb year with Milwaukee and reportedly past negotiations have not gone well, with the former Cy Young winner somehow only getting $10mill. Burnes has one year of control left and is trying to prove himself out of Milwaukee’s range.

 

 

BTV has Burnes’ surplus value at $30.5mill, but it will definitely go down, as he will have half of a season less control and very likely a higher salary for his last year. I expect something in the $15-20mill range for BTV. From a Sox prospect perspective, that puts Nick Yorke, Paxton Crawford (No!) and even (with a little help) Jarren Duran in play.

 

Of course what Milwaukee wants is another matter…

[moonslav59]

Thinking the real Sox best trade target is Corban Burnes.

 

Burnes is headed into his final arb year with Milwaukee and reportedly past negotiations have not gone well, with the former Cy Young winner somehow only getting $10mill. Burnes has one year of control left and is trying to prove himself out of Milwaukee’s range.

 

 

BTV has Burnes’ surplus value at $30.5mill, but it will definitely go down, as he will have half of a season less control and very likely a higher salary for his last year. I expect something in the $15-20mill range for BTV. From a Sox prospect perspective, that puts Nick Yorke, Paxton Crawford (No!) and even (with a little help) Jarren Duran in play.

 

Of course what Milwaukee wants is another matter…

 

They might want Rafaela.

[moonslav59]

BTV accepted:

 

Mitch Keller (2 yrs) to Red Sox

Dugo and Bednar to Astros

McCormick and Bleis to Pirates

 

Also,

 

Bleis and Drohan for Singer and Hearn

Edited September 22, 2023 by moonslav59

[notin]

They might want Rafaela.

 

They might. Then it gets a bit dicey.

 

One thing we have learned is that a player making over $20mill (which Burnes might get) with only one year of control left doesn’t draw as much trade interest as you think they will. See Betts, Mookie.

 

And this off-season, we should see it with Soto, Juan…

[moonslav59]

They might. Then it gets a bit dicey.

 

One thing we have learned is that a player making over $20mill (which Burnes might get) with only one year of control left doesn’t draw as much trade interest as you think they will. See Betts, Mookie.

 

And this off-season, we should see it with Soto, Juan…

 

Burnes might fetch a Rafaela at the deadline, so he'll get it this winter- or more.

[moonslav59]

If I knew Burnes would extend at a reasonable cost, I'd give more.

 

He turned 29, soon.

[notin]

If I knew Burnes would extend at a reasonable cost, I'd give more.

 

He turned 29, soon.

 

Oh it won’t be reasonable. But it might be more reasonable than Nola or Snell, since the Sox have a full year of exclusive negotiations and tend to throw around bigger numbers than Milwaukee. Plus he doesn’t have the wear and tear on his arm Nola and Snell have, so 6 or 7 years there might carry a little less risk (which becomes meaningless on the just ACL tear).

 

You still looking at 6/$180 for the extension at a minimum. But I bet both Nola and Snell to that…

[moonslav59]

Oh it won’t be reasonable. But it might be more reasonable than Nola or Snell, since the Sox have a full year of exclusive negotiations and tend to throw around bigger numbers than Milwaukee. Plus he doesn’t have the wear and tear on his arm Nola and Snell have, so 6 or 7 years there might carry a little less risk (which becomes meaningless on the just ACL tear).

 

You still looking at 6/$180 for the extension at a minimum. But I bet both Nola and Snell to that…

 

Players might take a little less out of fear of injury during the year before free agency, but yes, he will cost.

 

One might ask, why trade a good prospect or two then pay FA prices?

 

Good question.

[moonslav59]

Lots of dogs on that list.

 

The top 6 are not dogs, and Morton on a 1 year deal would likely be a good signing.

 

Yamamoto x 8-9 (might get 10 at his age)

Nola x 7 (probably gets 8)

Snell x 6 of 7

Kershaw x 2

S Gray x 4 or 5

Montgomery x 6 or 7

Morton x 1

 

Morton would be a nice counter to a long range signing, and losing his and Sale's contract after 2024 would be a windfall.

[Larry Cook]

BTV accepted:

 

Mitch Keller (2 yrs) to Red Sox

Dugo and Bednar to Astros

McCormick and Bleis to Pirates

 

Also,

 

Bleis and Drohan for Singer and Hearn

 

I got Bleis on my untouchable list.

 

Drohan is an intriguing guy. In the first half of the year, his control was decent and he got his pitches over the plate.

In the second half, his command and control fell apart.

 

Does he regain his control in 2024???? If his command and control return, he could be effective in the bullpen for us.

[moonslav59]

I got Bleis on my untouchable list.

 

Drohan is an intriguing guy. In the first half of the year, his control was decent and he got his pitches over the plate.

In the second half, his command and control fell apart.

 

Does he regain his control in 2024???? If his command and control return, he could be effective in the bullpen for us.

 

Is there any top 5 prospect no untouchable to you?

 

Anthony

Teel

Mayer

Bleis

Cespedes

[notin]

Players might take a little less out of fear of injury during the year before free agency, but yes, he will cost.

 

One might ask, why trade a good prospect or two then pay FA prices?

 

Good question.

 

Burnes is younger and has much less wear on his arm than Nola. Obviously risk depends on the human, but it does mitigate it somewhat.

[moonslav59]

I got Bleis on my untouchable list.

 

Drohan is an intriguing guy. In the first half of the year, his control was decent and he got his pitches over the plate.

In the second half, his command and control fell apart.

 

Does he regain his control in 2024???? If his command and control return, he could be effective in the bullpen for us.

 

Is there any top 5 prospect not untouchable to you?

 

Anthony

Teel

Mayer

Bleis

Cespedes

[mvp 78]

Is there any top 5 prospect not untouchable to you?

 

Anthony

Teel

Mayer

Bleis

Cespedes

 

Nobody should be untouchable.

[Randy Red Sox]

The top 6 are not dogs, and Morton on a 1 year deal would likely be a good signing.

 

Yamamoto x 8-9 (might get 10 at his age)

Nola x 7 (probably gets 8)

Snell x 6 of 7

Kershaw x 2

S Gray x 4 or 5

Montgomery x 6 or 7

Morton x 1

 

Morton would be a nice counter to a long range signing, and losing his and Sale's contract after 2024 would be a windfall.

 

Morton was the exact type Bloom would have been in on. It is past time for those type moves. If I am the new GM I do not allow myself to be out-bid on Yamamoto and I scour the non-contending teams and the Marlins for a young promising SP that I can trade some of our " so called high end prospects for not named Raefala, Teel or Mayer along with a Verdugo or Duran. Not sure if Dalbec has any value but he could be a throw in.

 

I would be staying away from almost all the 6 you list other than Yamamoto. Kershaw is not going to pitch anywhere other than LA and spends too much time on the DL EVERY year anyway. NO way do I sign Nola for 7-8 yrs or Snell for 6-7. Even though I like Gray at 34 I am not giving him 4-5 years. Ditto for Montgomery at 6-7 yrs. Did the Sox not learn anything from the Price and Sale contracts. Go YOUNG with QUALITY HARD THROWING arms that can fit in the window our farm system is building.

Edited September 23, 2023 by Randy Red Sox

[moonslav59]

Morton was the exact type Bloom would have been in on. It is past time for those type moves. If I am the new GM I do not allow myself to be out-bid on Yamamoto and I scour the non-contending teams and the Marlins for a young promising SP that I can trade some of our " so called high end prospects for not named Raefala, Teel or Mayer along with a Verdugo or Duran. Not sure if Dalbec has any value but he could be a throw in.

 

I would be staying away from almost all the 6 you list other than Yamamoto. Kershaw is not going to pitch anywhere other than LA and spends too much time on the DL EVERY year anyway. NO way do I sign Nola for 7-8 yrs or Snell for 6-7. Even though I like Gray at 34 I am not giving him 4-5 years. Ditto for Montgomery at 6-7 yrs. Did the Sox not learn anything from the Price and Sale contracts. Go YOUNG with QUALITY HARD THROWING arms that can fit in the window our farm system is building.

 

No mention of Anthony? He could easily be our best prospect.

 

I mentioned Morton as a possible second signee, if we go large and long on one of the younger top guys, like Yamamoto. BTW, Morton is no Kluber or Richards and might get 3 x what they got ($30M/1.)

 

I can't see us signing Yamamoto and then Nola or Gray.

 

I have long said sign one and trade for one as the best option, so I'm with you on that idea.

 

Edited September 23, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Nobody should be untouchable.

 

None are for me- for the right return.

 

I will say, Anthony then Teel are my current faves.

[Randy Red Sox]

No mention of Anthony? He could easily be our best prospect.

 

I mentioned Morton as a possible second signee, if we go large and long on one of the younger top guys, like Yamamoto. BTW, Morton is no Kluber or Richards and might get 3 x what they got ($30M/1.)

 

I can't see us signing Yamamoto and then Nola or Gray.

 

I have long said sign one and trade for one as the best option, so I'm with you on that idea.

 

 

i really don't know that much bout about ANTHONY

[moonslav59]

i really don't know that much bout about ANTHONY

 

You know more about Bleis?

[Bellhorn04]

Nobody should be untouchable.

 

Can we all please stipulate this as Accepted Baseball Wisdom forever and ever, so we never have to hear it again?

[Randy Red Sox]

You know more about Bleis?

 

not that much to be honest. Have not been on sox prospects for a while now. Just checked it out. I see both anthony and Bleiss are 19 so likely 3 years away at least.

Edited September 23, 2023 by Randy Red Sox

[moonslav59]

not that much to be honest. Have not been on sox prospects for a while now. Just checked it out. I see both anthony and Bleiss are 19 so likely 3 years away at least.

 

I just know what I read, and they both seem pretty damn good, but the word is Anthony is going to jump in the end of year national rankings.

 

He may be our best prospect.

 

It's nice having 4 guys to talk about like this, and I feel Cespedes will be joining the conversation, next season.

[Larry Cook]

Is there any top 5 prospect not untouchable to you?

 

Anthony

Teel

Mayer

Bleis

Cespedes

 

I have never seen cespedes or teel live so I cannot speak to them.

 

But Mayer, Anthony and Bleis are really good. Like bogey, Betts type good (when those guys were coming up)!

[moonslav59]

Can we all please stipulate this as Accepted Baseball Wisdom forever and ever, so we never have to hear it again?

 

I think some say it to express their feelings that the player would be the last guy(s) they'd trade. It's hard to imagine anyone saying no to a Mayer for Witt Jr. and Singer, because Mayer is "untouchable."

 

I agree, though, nobody should ever say that. Even if you are a total farm maniac, we could always trade our best farm guy for some other team's best 3 farm guys.

[moonslav59]

I have never seen cespedes or teel live so I cannot speak to them.

 

But Mayer, Anthony and Bleis are really good. Like bogey, Betts type good (when those guys were coming up)!

 

How many times have you seen the others?

 

Couldn't you just have had some luck seeing them play on their best days?

 

I'm not downgrading the guys you've seen, just saying...

[moonslav59]

not that much to be honest. Have not been on sox prospects for a while now. Just checked it out. I see both anthony and Bleiss are 19 so likely 3 years away at least.

 

People often say soxprospects.com gets giddy over our prospects, but if you read their summations, I'm thinking they are conservative. Here are their summations on my top 5 prospects:

 

Mayer:

Potential above-average regular. Ceiling of a regular all-star. Has all the tools you look for in future everyday shortstop and the offensive upside to hit at the top of a contending team's lineup. Game comes easy to him. Potential for four above-average-or-better tools. Should be able to stick at shortstop and hit for a high average with power. Hit-over-power at the plate at this point, but both tools project as at least above-average. One of the best, if not the best, defenders in the 2021 draft. Complete profile on both sides of the ball gives him an all-star ceiling.

 

Anthony:

Very intriguing power prospect with the ceiling of an everyday outfielder. How his hit tool develops will determine how much of his power potential actualizes. Power is a carrying tool and is very impressive for his age. Should develop into a solid defender also, but what he does at the plate will be his calling card.

 

Bleis:

Potential everyday player who adds significant value in all facets of the game. High-risk prospect with a wide variance of outcomes. Checks all the boxes you look for in a prospect his age. If he reaches his potential, all five tools could grade at least as average. Raw power is his best current tool, but has the potential to hit for average as well. Has the highest upside of any Latin American prospect in the system. Scouts praised him as the best position player they saw in the FCL during the 2022 season.

 

Teel:

Potential defense-first catcher whose upside will be determined by how much he hits. Likely will develop into a hit-over-power type, and if he hits he has everyday potential. High baseball IQ and leader who should be able to handle the rigors of catching at the major league level. Described as having a very carefree personality. Great value pick at number 14 overall in 2023 that comes with a high floor due to his defensive profile.

 

Cespedes: (no summary, yet.)

Red Sox top signing in the January 2023 IFA class. Per reports, offense-first infielder considered by some scouts to be one of the best pure hitters in the January 2023 IFA class. Quick wrists, compact swing, solid-average raw power with the potential for more as he fills out. Good approach for his age. Excellent eye-hand coordination and bat control. Will expand the zone. Will start at shortstop but may need to move to second or third base eventually. Average arm, average speed. Solid makeup.

[Larry Cook]

How many times have you seen the others?

 

Couldn't you just have had some luck seeing them play on their best days?

 

I'm not downgrading the guys you've seen, just saying...

 

I have seen Mayer about 20 times and Anthony and bleis about 10 times.

 

When these three guys get in the batters box, they way they approach the at bat and the bat speed and the bat to ball skill is all elite.

Opposing pitchers pitch these three guys differently then they do other hitters