Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Larry Cook]

 

Seattle: Teoscar Hern,

 

 

This guy could be your right handed bat

[moonslav59]

This guy could be your right handed bat

 

I'm just tired of adding DH/LF types.

 

I think Duvall might be better on D in RF and CF, for sure.

 

TH looks like a better bat, for sure.

 

Bellinger bats lefty.

 

I think we try to bring Duvall back and hope the new Duran shows up. They may put too much hope in Story to take up the slack on O by losing JT, and I'm not sure that is wise.

 

Assuming we bring back Duvall and nothing else to the O and D, I see it this way:

 

The defense should improve by a lot, but still looks below average:

 

SS: Much better with Story over Kike & Co. (Reyes and Urias are decent back-ups.)

2B: Reyes and Urias are close to average and our 2023 defense at 2B was below average.

CF: If Rafaela can earn this slot by hitting well enough, there could be an enormous gain, here, and a ripple effect across the corner OF slots.

LF: Yoshida to DH, alone, improves the LF defense, as Duran and Refsnyder are better. So are Abreu and Duvall.

RF: Dugo and Duvall would be fine. (Abreu as back-up is probably better than Refsnyder.)

1B: Casas should improve, but I thought the same about Dalbec. (No JT as a sub hurts.)

3B: Devers has been up and down. Counting on an up may be futile.

C: I'm thinking most catchers improve as they reach their late 20's. I'm hopeful they do better, particularly with handling the staff. Many of the same pitchers will be returning, so maybe that will help on that front.

 

On offense, losing JT will hurt like hell. He was the blood and guts of our offense. Counting on more PAs from Story, Duran, Urias and Reyes may not produce enough added offense to offset that loss. Counting on a returning Duvall to stay healthy and hit well maybe be a stretch. Counting on Devers to have a career year might be needed. Counting on Casas to improve seems like a good bet, as he seems like he learns quickly and adjusts well. Dugo is tough to project. Yoshida might have to greatly improve for our offense to improve. For most of the season, I took the offense for granted, as being top 5 or 6. Now, I'm not so sure. Counting on Rafaela, Abreu and EValdez plus other upcoming prospects might be what we end up relying on.

[Nick]

Other Teams Winter Issues:

 

Toronto:

FA: Chapman, Ryu, Belt, Kiermaier, Cimber

Last Arb Raise Pending: Vlad ($14.5 in '23), D Jansen ($3.5), TRichards ($1.5)

 

Texas: MPerez, JOdorizzi, AHedges, NLowe, BMiller, MGarver, AChapman, CStratton, IKennedy, RGrossman, WSmith, TJankowski, JLeclerc (option)

(About half their 26 man roster, but they will likely be big spenders)

 

Houston: Brantley, Stanek & Maton is not bad, but they added Verlander's salary, so I'm not sure how much they will spend, this winter. The Alvarex deal starts kicking in raises. Tucker will get a big 2nd arb raise.

 

Seattle: Teoscar Hern, TMurphy

The Luis Castillo extension kicks in ($13M raise). Marco Gonzalez gets a $6M raise and Ty France gets an arb raise.

 

Some of these teams might have easier paths to stay strong or get stronger for 2024, than the Sox, but I think a lot will have to do with winter spending budgets.

 

BAL and TBR cannot be caught up to, on paper in one winter.

 

 

Max Scherzer will cost Texas $23M, not the entire $43M. Mets will eat the $20M.

 

Verlander will cost Houston $18M, not the entire $43M. Mets will eat the $25M.

[notin]

This guy could be your right handed bat

 

If there are legitimate concerts about defense, Teoscar Hernandez is not a good option. Especially given the size of the train trying to run the Sox best defensive outfielder (Verdugo) out of town. Signing Hernandez and moving Verdugo means right field at Fenway would need to be manned by Hernandez, Duran or Abreu. Abreu is the only passable option defensively…

 

If we need a big right-handed bat in the outfield, just bring back Duvall…

[Larry Cook]

I think we have some assets teams might be interested in, verdugo, dalbec and Duran. I believe cassas is untouchable!

 

I think we should call Miami and work something out with them.

 

We also might want to call arizona, if we prefer some prospects

[moonslav59]

Max Scherzer will cost Texas $23M, not the entire $43M. Mets will eat the $20M.

 

Verlander will cost Houston $18M, not the entire $43M. Mets will eat the $25M.

 

Good points, but both are still major budget additions before winter even arrives. Same with the nearly $20M added to SEA for Castillo and MG raises.

 

We have the Devers raise and some arb raises to Pivetta and Dugo.

[moonslav59]

If there are legitimate concerts about defense, Teoscar Hernandez is not a good option. Especially given the size of the train trying to run the Sox best defensive outfielder (Verdugo) out of town. Signing Hernandez and moving Verdugo means right field at Fenway would need to be manned by Hernandez, Duran or Abreu. Abreu is the only passable option defensively…

 

If we need a big right-handed bat in the outfield, just bring back Duvall…

 

We could sign Teoscar and trade Duran:

 

LF: Teoscar

CF: Rafaela/Abreu

RF: Dugo

DH: Yoshida

 

I'd prefer we just bring Duvall back, too.

[moonslav59]

I think we have some assets teams might be interested in, verdugo, dalbec and Duran. I believe cassas is untouchable!

 

I think we should call Miami and work something out with them.

 

We also might want to call arizona, if we prefer some prospects

 

I doubt Dalbec has much trade value. Other teams are looking at 40 man roster squeezes. They might figure they can just wait and claim Dalbec off waivers or someone like him.

[notin]

I think we have some assets teams might be interested in, verdugo, dalbec and Duran. I believe cassas is untouchable!

 

I think we should call Miami and work something out with them.

 

We also might want to call arizona, if we prefer some prospects

 

 

No one wants Dalbec.

 

Hes 28, can’t hit MLB pitching, struggles defensively, and requires a 40 man roster spot. His only redeeming baseball asset is he still should have one option remaining next year, so while he needs to be on the 40 man roster, he will not need to be on the 26. Until 2025.

 

Dalbec is DFA material. His best chance for survival rests on the fact that there are a few others somehow even more deserving of a DFA…

[moonslav59]

No one wants Dalbec.

 

Hes 28, can’t hit MLB pitching, struggles defensively, and requires a 40 man roster spot. His only redeeming baseball asset is he still should have one option remaining next year, so while he needs to be on the 40 man roster, he will not need to be on the 26. Until 2025.

 

Dalbec is DFA material. His best chance for survival rests on the fact that there are a few others somehow even more deserving of a DFA…

 

...and the fact that our back up 1Bman will be ______?

[Nick]

Good points, but both are still major budget additions before winter even arrives. Same with the nearly $20M added to SEA for Castillo and MG raises.

 

We have the Devers raise and some arb raises to Pivetta and Dugo.

 

Devers raise is taken care by getting rid of Kike. At least that's how think. (Oh no, who will play shortstop?)

[Nick]

...and the fact that our back up 1Bman will be ______?

 

I still like Dalbec.

[Nick]

Verdugo doesn't interest me anymore. Year 6. $8M for 2024?

 

I rather watch Abreu. He has more power potential. $1M for 2024. The difference will cover Pivetta's pay or close to it. Or throw on top of what we're going to offer the Japanese pitcher. That's how you manage payroll.

 

Verdugo looks like he's following Beni career path.

 

Some say he has no trade value so keep him? If he's as good as many here thinks, he should have some trade value, no?

Edited September 24, 2023 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

Verdugo doesn't interest me anymore. Year 6. $8M for 2024?

 

I rather watch Abreu. He has more power potential. $1M for 2024. The difference will cover Pivetta's pay or close to it.

 

Verdugo looks like he's following Beni career path.

 

Some say he has no trade value so keep him? If he's as good as many here thinks, he should have some trade value, no?

 

Now that you mention it, Beni does seem like a good comp. Like Beni, Verdugo does not have consistent power.

[Nick]

We could sign Teoscar and trade Duran:

 

LF: Teoscar

CF: Rafaela/Abreu

RF: Dugo

DH: Yoshida

 

I'd prefer we just bring Duvall back, too.

 

This is how I look at it. Despite all the knives thrown at our favorite Japanese whipping boy-son, our outfield improved greatly offensively. Don't forget that many of you didn't think much of Verdugo's defense in 2022.

 

2023 OF & DH

 

Yoshida

Turner

Duvall 87 games

Duran 102 games

Verdugo 137 games, OPS of .753

 

I think this group for 2024 maybe better

 

Duvall 140 games (previous Gold Glove winner)

Rafaela 150 games (future Gold Glove winner)

Abreu 150 games (I will leave this site if Abreu can't hit above .750 OPS, that's how confident I am)

Duran 150 games (his D improves by refining the stuff between the ears)

Yoshida -DH primarily (I will miss his short strides...any analysis on how many steps he takes to get to a routine flyball?)

 

And we shed some payroll....our defense improves simply by not playing Yoshida in left field

Edited September 24, 2023 by Nick

[notin]

...and the fact that our back up 1Bman will be ______?

 

 

Anyone else?

 

Dalbec isn’t a good 1b. Why is he worth keeping around solely as a back up?

[moonslav59]

Anyone else?

 

Dalbec isn’t a good 1b. Why is he worth keeping around solely as a back up?

 

Who is "anyone?"

 

Devers? Fine, but I doubt it happens.

 

Duvall? Gotta sign him, first.

 

Urias? Yoshida?

 

I'm not saying keep him solely for that reason, but it is a reason to keep him over about 6-8 others on the 40, right now.

 

If we add 5-7 Rule 5 guys and 3 FAs, then he will likely reach the top of the DFA list, but until then, I see reason enough to keep him around.

 

Hell, he's RF depth, too! Since everyone and his brother want to trade Dugo, he can back-up Abreu in RF, too! (from AAA)

[notin]

Who is "anyone?"

 

Devers? Fine, but I doubt it happens.

 

Duvall? Gotta sign him, first.

 

Urias? Yoshida?

 

I'm not saying keep him solely for that reason, but it is a reason to keep him over about 6-8 others on the 40, right now.

 

If we add 5-7 Rule 5 guys and 3 FAs, then he will likely reach the top of the DFA list, but until then, I see reason enough to keep him around.

 

Hell, he's RF depth, too! Since everyone and his brother want to trade Dugo, he can back-up Abreu in RF, too! (from AAA)

 

 

Oh yes i forgot about that rule that the backup first baseman has to be on your roster the previous September.

 

Theres no reason to keep Dalbec around beyond the questionable viewpoint that the only requirements to be a backup first baseman are a pulse and the complete inability to play the position.

 

There will be plenty of non-bank breaking options available if this is even considered a need at all. And if the Sox somehow think they need one, why not try and find a player who can actually play the position?

Edited September 24, 2023 by notin

[moonslav59]

 

And we shed some payroll....our defense improves simply by not playing Yoshida in left field

 

It will be even more greatly improved by Story playing more games at SS.

Even Urias and Reyes at 2B should improve 2B defense.

 

If we can get Rafaela to hit well enough to play a bunch of games in CF, our D could even end up a net plus.

 

Here are our current positional rankings and values on OAA:

 

Overall: 30th (-51) The next team is -34.

 

1B: T27th (-9) Casas is -10, so he'll have to improve

2B: 29th (-13) Reyes is -1, so if he plays more... (Urias -5/EValdez -5)

SS: T 24th (-6) Story is +6, so a massive improvement is possible

3B: 28th (-11) Devers is -10

LF: T24th (-10) Yoshi is -9, but Duran is 0. Ref -1.

CF: 30th (-2) Duvall is -3, Duran 0, Abreu -1, Rafaela +1

RF: T10th (0) Verdugo is +1.

No position is plus. All but RF is bottom 7.

 

We could see 1B, 3B and RF be about the same:

SS: -6 to +12 or more (Story)

LF: -10 to zero (No Yoshi)

CF: -2 to +6 (Rafaela)

2B: -13 to maybe -2

 

That would add about 50 to the -51 score of 2023. Some big ifs, here but not unrealistic. If Devers and Casas can improve, we could see a plus team OAA without adding any out of system players..

 

[moonslav59]

Oh yes i forgot about that rule that the backup first baseman has to be on your roster the previous September.

 

Theres no reason to keep Dalbec around beyond the questionable viewpoint that the only requirements to be a backup first baseman are a pulse and the complete inability to play the position.

 

There will be plenty of non-bank breaking options available if this is even considered a need at all. And if the Sox somehow think they need one, why not try and find a player who can actually play the position?

 

I'm just asking, who is the back-up, right now?

 

Are you suggesting we add a 1Bman to the 40, over the winter?

 

Just tell me who you see as the current back up 1Bman on the 40 or a Rule 5 addition.

 

I'm projecting Dalbec will be DFA'd or traded, but as one of the last to be so. I'm curious who will back up Casas. We know Cora will want to rest him 12-15 games.

[notin]

Who is "anyone?"

 

Devers? Fine, but I doubt it happens.

 

Duvall? Gotta sign him, first.

 

Urias? Yoshida?

 

I'm not saying keep him solely for that reason, but it is a reason to keep him over about 6-8 others on the 40, right now.

 

If we add 5-7 Rule 5 guys and 3 FAs, then he will likely reach the top of the DFA list, but until then, I see reason enough to keep him around.

 

 

The Sox have three players on the 60 day IL who aren’t even on the 40 man roster yet and will have to be added once the season ends. Now two of them (Ort and Wyatt “Still Alive” Mills) are DFA candidates on there own. Hopefully the new CBO isn’t so enamored with Ort.

 

But certainly Duran figures to be reinstated. Other good DFA candidates are:

 

Jacques

Garza

Gillaspie

Weiss

Llovera

Dalbec

Mata

 

 

If you want to protect 5 players from the Rule 5 draft, all of the ones listed need to go (one for Duran plus 5 others plus Ort and Mills).

 

And if the Sox want to make a Rule 5 pick, they need to jettison someone else.

 

And hey, maybe we can get a backup 1b in the Rule 5 Draft!!!

[moonslav59]

The Sox have three players on the 60 day IL who aren’t even on the 40 man roster yet and will have to be added once the season ends. Now two of them (Ort and Wyatt “Still Alive” Mills) are DFA candidates on there own. Hopefully the new CBO isn’t so enamored with Ort.

 

But certainly Duran figures to be reinstated. Other good DFA candidates are:

 

Jacques

Garza

Gillaspie

Weiss

Llovera

Dalbec

Mata

 

 

If you want to protect 5 players from the Rule 5 draft, all of the ones listed need to go (one for Duran plus 5 others plus Ort and Mills).

 

And if the Sox want to make a Rule 5 pick, they need to jettison someone else.

 

And hey, maybe we can get a backup 1b in the Rule 5 Draft!!!

 

So, your answer is nobody.

 

Adding Duran, Mills and Ort brings us to 43. Add about 7 Rule 5, and we are at about 50. Minus Paxton, Duvall and JT and we are at 47.

 

I have Dalbec on my list of 7, so it's not like we are disagreeing, but I am still curious who our back up 1Bman might be in 2024. Maybe we bring JT back. Maybe we bring Duvall back, who has started 27 games at 1B, but right now, neither is on that list of 49.

 

My top 10 DFA/Trade list:

 

1. Ort

2. Gillaspe

3. Weiss

4. Llovera

5. Jacques

6. Garza

7. Dalbec or Mills (trade)

8. Dalbec or Joely (trade or refuse option)

9. Dalbec

10. Urias (trade or refuse arb)

Others? Walter, DHam or the much discussed trade of an OF'er to make room for Rafaela and Abreu and a full season from Duran.

 

 

 

[notin]

I'm just asking, who is the back-up, right now?

 

Are you suggesting we add a 1Bman to the 40, over the winter?

.

 

If you were asking who it is right now, why did you say we would have to sign Duvall first?

 

I really don’t care who it is now. They could give Refsnyder a chance and it won’t ring the season…

Edited September 24, 2023 by notin

[notin]

So, your answer is nobody.

 

Adding Duran, Mills and Ort brings us to 43. Add about 7 Rule 5, and we are at about 50. Minus Paxton, Duvall and JT and we are at 47.

 

I have Dalbec on my list of 7, so it's not like we are disagreeing, but I am still curious who our back up 1Bman might be in 2024. Maybe we bring JT back. Maybe we bring Duvall back, who has started 27 games at 1B, but right now, neither is on that list of 49.

 

My top 10 DFA/Trade list:

 

1. Ort

2. Gillaspe

3. Weiss

4. Llovera

5. Jacques

6. Garza

7. Dalbec or Mills (trade)

8. Dalbec or Joely (trade or refuse option)

9. Dalbec

10. Urias (trade or refuse arb)

Others? Walter, DHam or the much discussed trade of an OF'er to make room for Rafaela and Abreu and a full season from Duran.

 

 

 

 

 

I don’t consider backup 1b to be any level of priority and if it ever gets to be a need the only requirement shouldn’t be “already has a uniform”.

 

After all, if your answer is Dalbec, you don’t really have one either…

[moonslav59]

I don’t consider backup 1b to be any level of priority and if it ever gets to be a need the only requirement shouldn’t be “already has a uniform”.

 

After all, if your answer is Dalbec, you don’t really have one either…

 

It's not a question of priority, unless maybe it comes down to Dalbec vs someone else, and maybe positional depth might matter.

 

As I said, I don't think Dalbec will be on our 40, next year. I also don't think we add someone just to be a back-up to Casas, but we will need one.

 

I'm just curious who you think it would be, assuming we don't add anyone for that role.

 

I've already said I'd give Devers a 1B mitt and some reps, and I know you are not against the idea, but I'm wondering why you can't answer.

 

Yes, my answer leaves open the possibility it could be Dalbec, but only because I see him being around #6-8 on the DFA list and we might need to DFA only 7-9 guys. If we sign 4+ FAs, Dalbec is certainly a goner, unless we only protect 4-5 Rule 5 guys.

[moonslav59]

How many Rule 5 players do we add to the 40?

 

I'm guessing 6 or 7.

 

Probables?

Wikelman Gonzalez

Luis Perales

Grant Gambrell

Stephen Scott

Shane Drohan

 

Possibles?

Allan Castro

Angel Bastardo

Zach Penrod

Justin Hagenman

Luis De La Rosa

Brock Bell

Brainer Bonaci

Ryan Fernandez

Chih-Jung Liu

Eddinson Paulino

 

Doubtfuls?

Rivaldo Avila

Royman Blanco

Zach Bryant

Maceo Campbell

Brendan Cellucci

Felix Cepeda

Juan Chacon

Casey Cobb

Nathanael Cruz

Nick Decker

Kelvin Diaz

Jordan DiValerio

Juan Daniel Encarnación

Alex Erro

Albert Feliz

Ryan Fitzgerald

Jhostynxon Garcia

Bryan Gonzalez

Alexis Hernandez

Gabriel Jackson

Lyonell James

Gilberto Jimenez

Christian Koss

Robert Kwiatkowski

Eduardo Lopez

Matthew Lugo

Elih Marrero

Yorberto Mejicano

Ryan Miller

Andrés Núñez

Yusniel Padron-Artiles

Railin Perez

AJ Politi

Jose Ramirez

Oscar Rangel

Jorge Rodriguez

Ronald Rosario

Cesar Ruiz

Johnfrank Salazar

Cody Scroggins

Reidis Sena

Chase Shugart

Karson Simas

Nick Sogard

Noah Song

Dylan Spacke

Joey Stock

Luis Talavera

Nate Tellier

Michael Valera

Brian Van Belle

Diego Viloria

Jeremy Wu-Yelland

Ryan Zeferjahn

 

[mvp 78]

Verdugo doesn't interest me anymore. Year 6. $8M for 2024?

 

I rather watch Abreu. He has more power potential. $1M for 2024. The difference will cover Pivetta's pay or close to it. Or throw on top of what we're going to offer the Japanese pitcher. That's how you manage payroll.

 

Verdugo looks like he's following Beni career path.

 

Some say he has no trade value so keep him? If he's as good as many here thinks, he should have some trade value, no?

 

Verdugo has maxed out as a 2 fWAR guy. He's good, but if that defense takes a step back, it gets pretty ugly. The 100 wRC+ out of him is a big letdown, but it's probably closer to what our expectations should have been.

[mvp 78]

Oh yes i forgot about that rule that the backup first baseman has to be on your roster the previous September.

 

If the new CBO is from outside the organization, there are names that could be brought in that none of us have on our radar.

[moonslav59]

Verdugo has maxed out as a 2 fWAR guy. He's good, but if that defense takes a step back, it gets pretty ugly. The 100 wRC+ out of him is a big letdown, but it's probably closer to what our expectations should have been.

 

He had a 112 OPS+ from 2019-2021 and was still pre-prime.

 

I expected him to at least stay the same as he entered prime.

 

He did not.

[mvp 78]

The Sox have three players on the 60 day IL who aren’t even on the 40 man roster yet and will have to be added once the season ends. Now two of them (Ort and Wyatt “Still Alive” Mills) are DFA candidates on there own. Hopefully the new CBO isn’t so enamored with Ort.

 

But certainly Duran figures to be reinstated. Other good DFA candidates are:

 

Jacques

Garza

Gillaspie

Weiss

Llovera

Dalbec

Mata

 

 

If you want to protect 5 players from the Rule 5 draft, all of the ones listed need to go (one for Duran plus 5 others plus Ort and Mills).

 

And if the Sox want to make a Rule 5 pick, they need to jettison someone else.

 

And hey, maybe we can get a backup 1b in the Rule 5 Draft!!!

 

They probably keep Mata through Spring Training and see if his arm is playing up in a relief role.