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Posted
Padres: 77-80

732 Runs Scored

642 Runs Allowed

Pythag: 88-69

 

Walkoff Wins: 2

Walkoff Losses: 12

 

The Padres are an odd case.

 

Last year they were 60-46. They dropped a slew of prospects to acquire Juan Soto and Josh Hader (mostly Soto).

 

Since then they are 106-107. And probably going to unload Soto and let Hader walk (with a QO).

 

And they are likely to find out (like Boston did) that dealing one year of a high-priced young superstar might not attract as many trade offers as they would like…

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Posted
I was making a point that most of our position players are Pre-Arb guys and cheap.

 

I know. I was just joshing.

 

We do have the big Devers raise plus a couple substantial arb raises for Pivetta and Dugo, assuming he's not traded. This is a very light arb year for the Sox. So many players are pre-arb.

 

Urias will have his 3rd of 4 arbs and may not get a big raise, but he was at $4.7M, this year. I'm not sure we go to arb with him.

McGuire is second arb of 3, and should not make much of a raise from $1.1M.

Schreiber gets his first arb, which is usually not a big raise.

 

The budget outlook does look pretty rosy, despite the contract starts by Yoshi & Story.

 

I've said, many times, I like the foundation left behind, despite much of it being speculative, in nature, but we also have the numbers, so not all of these young guys have to do well- just enough.

 

It also looks like we will have a steady flow of farm help over the next few years:

 

2024: full seasons (maybe) from Rafaela, Abreu and maybe Murphy. Duran is no longer a prospect, but many gave up on him before 2023, so he's almost like a new farm guy making a splash. Casas and Bello have established themselves as regular.

 

2025: Anthony, Teel, Mayer, Yorke

 

2026: Wikelman, Perales, Gambrell, Monegro

 

2027: Bleis, Cespedes, Zanetello. Joh Garcia

 

We may get some borderline guys, like Murphy was last winter, to surprise us in 2024: Rosier, EValdez, Drohan, Mata (RP?), Walter, DHam, Scott, Troye, Guerrero, RFern

2025: Meidroth, Hickey, Jordan, Dobbins, Bastardo, Rogers, ICoffey

2026: Castro, Romero, Paulino, E R-C,

2027: Anderson, Alcantara, Brannon, Paez, Yuten, Arias, Campbell

 

 

 

Posted
There it is again!

 

It's seems strange it has to be repeated, so often.

 

I mean who would not trade anybody for someone better (counting total value, including cost, years and projected production.)

Posted
Honestly -- this might be the first time I've ever said this as Sox fan -- there is not one single player on the entire MLB roster or in the entire farm system that I wouldn't include in a trade, let walk in free agency, or just cut and say goodbye.

 

This big league club is so far from contention -- legitimate World Series contention, SamKennedy -- that I'd like to see a new wheeling-dealing GM come in and engineer a multi-team blockbuster trade that cleans house of about 10 players from Boston and totally turns over the line-up and rotation.

 

The thing is, they’re actually not.

 

As bad as this team fell apart, they’re only going to finish 10-12 games out of the pistseadon. And while that’sa large enough gap to keep the mystery out of this season, do you really think its an impossible task to improve by that many games in a full year?

 

Granted, the Sox need to make a couple expensive additions to the top of the rotation and straighten out the crowded outfield, and then they might actually be back in the postseason. And once you get in, anything can happen. Last year we saw a team with 2 starting pitchers, no bullpen and an extremely questionable defense just go on a hit streak and make it to the World Series.

 

Once you’re in, you’re contending…

Posted
The Sox are 21 games out. The expanded playoffs always provide hope. Maybe MLB will add a fourth wild card before long.

 

Actually they’re 9.5 games out. But likely they finish 10-12 games out of the postseason. Winning the division is obviously much better, but just getting into the postseason is the real goal.

 

The Phillies finished 14 games out last year and made it to the World Series. We still count that, right?

Posted

They will likely expand the playoffs to 4 and then maybe 5 teams, at some point. It cheapens the long season work, but it's all about money and more big games for TV and higher ticket prices.

 

Other leagues let just about every team in the playoffs, but their seasons are shorter.

Posted
The thing is, they’re actually not.

 

As bad as this team fell apart, they’re only going to finish 10-12 games out of the pistseadon. And while that’sa large enough gap to keep the mystery out of this season, do you really think its an impossible task to improve by that many games in a full year?

 

Granted, the Sox need to make a couple expensive additions to the top of the rotation and straighten out the crowded outfield, and then they might actually be back in the postseason. And once you get in, anything can happen. Last year we saw a team with 2 starting pitchers, no bullpen and an extremely questionable defense just go on a hit streak and make it to the World Series.

 

Once you’re in, you’re contending…

 

I have faith that the new GM will actually add some decent pitching. I think Henry has felt the unrest from RSN and is prepared to open the pocketbook a bit more. I just hope we don't go after any of these 30ish FA SP that will want 5-6 yr deals. I say go HARD after Yamamoto and make a deal for one of the Marlins young P prospects that are close or even MLB ready.

Posted
I have faith that the new GM will actually add some decent pitching. I think Henry has felt the unrest from RSN and is prepared to open the pocketbook a bit more. I just hope we don't go after any of these 30ish FA SP that will want 5-6 yr deals. I say go HARD after Yamamoto and make a deal for one of the Marlins young P prospects that are close or even MLB ready.

 

I totally agree. If the wallet is to be opened, use it wisely- on younger pitchers.

 

There are other teams that may be more willing to trade a young pitcher than MIA, who could actually contend, soon.

 

It will be costly, but isn't that one reason we have spent years building up our everyday player side of the farm?

Posted
I have faith that the new GM will actually add some decent pitching. I think Henry has felt the unrest from RSN and is prepared to open the pocketbook a bit more. I just hope we don't go after any of these 30ish FA SP that will want 5-6 yr deals. I say go HARD after Yamamoto and make a deal for one of the Marlins young P prospects that are close or even MLB ready.

 

1. If Nola or Snell is willing to settle for 5 years, TAKE IT. For Gray, I’d also do 5, but no more.

 

2. Yamamoto is a massive risk. He might be Daisuke 2.0 and they’re 10 years.

 

3. The Marlins won’t be dealing prospects. But they might be dealing arbitration-eligible pitchers due to their low budget (“What did you say?”) small market ways. Arb eligibles this year include Jesus Luzardo and Trevor Rogers. Next year’s crop includes Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera, both of whom might be available but probably a bit pricier…

Posted

 

Granted, the Sox need to make a couple expensive additions to the top of the rotation and straighten out the crowded outfield, and then they might actually be back in the postseason. And once you get in, anything can happen. Last year we saw a team with 2 starting pitchers, no bullpen and an extremely questionable defense just go on a hit streak and make it to the World Series.

 

Once you’re in, you’re contending…

 

To me, true contenders are built not only to make the playoffs, but to win in the postseason. And that almost always come down to pitching: two starting pitchers can make a big difference -- as long as they're a #1 and #2 -- with a deep bullpen of good set-up men and a lights-out closer.

 

There are exceptions, but usually any deficiencies are exposed. Boston's first three World Series winners this century all had ace starters and automatic closers. The 2018 champs featured three Cy Young starters and a hot rover. The '21 Sox fell short because they had a bad bullpen.

 

But even better arms couldn't sustain a run through October for the current Sox, whose pitiful defense would sabotage even the great pitching staffs of the Baltimore Orioles from 50 years ago... although maybe the best skills of those O's pitchers was to induce batters to constantly hit the ball to all-time defenders Mark Belanger, Paul Blair, and Brooks Robinson (RIP, Human Vacuum Cleaner).

Posted
1. If Nola or Snell is willing to settle for 5 years, TAKE IT. For Gray, I’d also do 5, but no more.

 

2. Yamamoto is a massive risk. He might be Daisuke 2.0 and they’re 10 years.

 

3. The Marlins won’t be dealing prospects. But they might be dealing arbitration-eligible pitchers due to their low budget (“What did you say?”) small market ways. Arb eligibles this year include Jesus Luzardo and Trevor Rogers. Next year’s crop includes Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera, both of whom might be available but probably a bit pricier…

 

Rogers was terrible in '22 and injured in '23. Not sure how much I'd be willing to part with to get him.

Cabrera can't throw strikes and has a huge injury history. Pass.

Garrett isn't ARB until 2026. No way is he traded.

Luzardo's career is trending in a great direction since leaving OAK, but I think they are going to want a HAUL for him (Per BTV: Bleis, Duran, Gonzalez, Perales, Yorke).

Posted
The Sox are 21 games out. The expanded playoffs always provide hope. Maybe MLB will add a fourth wild card before long.

 

The Sox are obviously not good enough as composed right now. For some time they were fairly competitive this year and looked like an average to decent club, they had a .500 record for a lot of the season. I think the future is bright, and that may be hard to see the way they have played lately, but I think there has been a sense of "it's over" for a while now.

 

They're 7-16 this September, that's pretty awful. Flip that record around for this month of September and they'd be sitting 85-72 and .5 games out of a wild card. It's kind of crazy to think that just one good hot streak this year, could have made things look very different.

 

Perspective matters. Look at the young core, the ones here now and coming soon. Really makes me believe that if they make the right moves, improve the D and add some premium pitching in the offseason, they can be a lot better.

 

Meaningless baseball in late September isn't fun. Hopefully, a change of the guard brings us some hope.

 

Onto the Bruins/Celtics/Patriots.

Posted
1. If Nola or Snell is willing to settle for 5 years, TAKE IT. For Gray, I’d also do 5, but no more.

 

2. Yamamoto is a massive risk. He might be Daisuke 2.0 and they’re 10 years.

 

3. The Marlins won’t be dealing prospects. But they might be dealing arbitration-eligible pitchers due to their low budget (“What did you say?”) small market ways. Arb eligibles this year include Jesus Luzardo and Trevor Rogers. Next year’s crop includes Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera, both of whom might be available but probably a bit pricier…

 

I don't disagree with any of this, but I just think someone like Nola or Snell taking 5 probably isn't practical unless you're dishing out 50 million per year.

 

Yamamoto might be a risk, but I'm not sure it's as big as a "Daisuke" risk, Dice-K was a Boston guy, but there have been a lot of other players coming over from Asia since him with a much better track record. I also don't think there's as much uncertainty about how a guy's talent will translate to MLB hitters. Particularly pitchers. I don't care if you're pitching against high schoolers or MLB players, spin rate is spin rate, velocity is velocity, and control is control. The baseballs are more similar now than they were when Daisuke played in the Japan Pacific League.

 

Also, Yamamoto is just 25, and will be for 1/2 of next season as well. You will just never get that in FA here.

 

Yes, the bidding for Yama will be high, as it will be for Nola and Snell, but the perfect price point for the perfect pitcher will NEVER exist. Everyone places a value on a guy, and so does every other GM, 30 people. All it takes is one person willing to be a little less rational than you to win the bidding. This was ultimately BLOOMS biggest weakness, if you're the most rational guy in the room every time you will get outbid every time. We don't need one pitcher, we need arguably 3 and at least 2 this offseason. You can't trade for 3 premium pitchers, probably not even two without completely depleting your farm.

 

At some point, you're going to have to be able to get out of your comfort zone to build a winning team. No risk, no reward. This may, or may not be why Bloom was fired; he may have been let go to bring someone in who has the conviction to bring in premium talent.

Posted
To me, true contenders are built not only to make the playoffs, but to win in the postseason. And that almost always come down to pitching: two starting pitchers can make a big difference -- as long as they're a #1 and #2 -- with a deep bullpen of good set-up men and a lights-out closer.

 

There are exceptions, but usually any deficiencies are exposed. Boston's first three World Series winners this century all had ace starters and automatic closers. The 2018 champs featured three Cy Young starters and a hot rover. The '21 Sox fell short because they had a bad bullpen.

 

But even better arms couldn't sustain a run through October for the current Sox, whose pitiful defense would sabotage even the great pitching staffs of the Baltimore Orioles from 50 years ago... although maybe the best skills of those O's pitchers was to induce batters to constantly hit the ball to all-time defenders Mark Belanger, Paul Blair, and Brooks Robinson (RIP, Human Vacuum Cleaner).

 

I would make the argument that acquiring two top-of-the-rotation starters makes the team even stronger in that the Sum will be much greater than the parts.

 

This is the case because three of Crawford/Houck/Whitlock/Pivetta are getting moved to the pen if you add two premium starters. All of those guys have been and can be absolutely dominant in a shorter burst out of the bullpen.

 

Adding two premium starters gives us a legit rotation and a shut-down bullpen.

Posted
1. If Nola or Snell is willing to settle for 5 years, TAKE IT. For Gray, I’d also do 5, but no more.

 

2. Yamamoto is a massive risk. He might be Daisuke 2.0 and they’re 10 years.

 

3. The Marlins won’t be dealing prospects. But they might be dealing arbitration-eligible pitchers due to their low budget (“What did you say?”) small market ways. Arb eligibles this year include Jesus Luzardo and Trevor Rogers. Next year’s crop includes Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera, both of whom might be available but probably a bit pricier…

 

5 years for Gray would be a disaster and I think both Nola and Snell will want more than 5. I would pass but the new GM will want to make a splash so we will probably get one of them.

Posted
1. If Nola or Snell is willing to settle for 5 years, TAKE IT. For Gray, I’d also do 5, but no more.

 

2. Yamamoto is a massive risk. He might be Daisuke 2.0 and they’re 10 years.

 

3. The Marlins won’t be dealing prospects. But they might be dealing arbitration-eligible pitchers due to their low budget (“What did you say?”) small market ways. Arb eligibles this year include Jesus Luzardo and Trevor Rogers. Next year’s crop includes Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera, both of whom might be available but probably a bit pricier…

 

I agree. Age and projection of future useful years is the first concern.

 

Yamamoto (25) Major risk, yes, but at 25 years old, I'd roll the dice. (Pun intended)

Giolito (29) I like the age, but am not sure he's even a solid #2.

Ohtani (29) Out of price range and reasonability

Snell (31) 5 years but will get 6+ and is not a workhorse pitcher

Nola (31) 5 years but will get 6+ somewhere

Montgomery (31) 5-6 years. (I think he may be the guy we add.)

ERod (31) 4 years but may not want a return to BOS

Stroman (33) 3 years but will get 4-5 somewhere

Wacha (33) 3 years max

Gray (34) 4 years, and I'm not so sure I give a 34 year old 5 years. (I like him, though.)

Kershaw (36) 2 year deal, but it will be hard to pry from LA

Cobb (36) 1 year with an option, but I hope we do better.

Lynn (37) 1 year, but I don't see him as a guy I'd want.

Morton (40) 1 year deal

Others...

28 Flaherty- age makes him interesting

29 B Keller

30 Severino

32 Lorenzen, M Perez

33 Clevinger, Heaney

34 S Lugo, Stripling, Hendricks

35 Paxton, Maeda

36 K Gibson

37 Ryu, Carrasco

38 Cueto

40 Greinke

44 RHill

 

Sign one good one and then a second one like Charlie Morton, then trade for a younger pitcher. Add three.

 

The pen would be awesome with as many of th4ese guys in it as possible:

Paxton (likely the #5)

Crawford

Houck

Whitlock

Posted
I would make the argument that acquiring two top-of-the-rotation starters makes the team even stronger in that the Sum will be much greater than the parts.

 

This is the case because three of Crawford/Houck/Whitlock/Pivetta are getting moved to the pen if you add two premium starters. All of those guys have been and can be absolutely dominant in a shorter burst out of the bullpen.

 

Adding two premium starters gives us a legit rotation and a shut-down bullpen.

 

You said it better and shorter than I.

 

I'd go with 3, though.

Posted
I would make the argument that acquiring two top-of-the-rotation starters makes the team even stronger in that the Sum will be much greater than the parts.

 

This is the case because three of Crawford/Houck/Whitlock/Pivetta are getting moved to the pen if you add two premium starters. All of those guys have been and can be absolutely dominant in a shorter burst out of the bullpen.

 

Adding two premium starters gives us a legit rotation and a shut-down bullpen.

 

This is the ideal scenario, and one many of us extolled for at least the past year. That is, if Crawford/Houck/Whitlock/Pivetta are actually good enough -- the only one we truly know, as far as potential, may be Pivetta.

 

The big problem may be that none of them are 100 mph strikeout guys -- which means, we have to rely on the defense. Yes, it will be better. But someday soon, the new GM has to address the elephant on the hot corner...

Posted (edited)
5 years for Gray would be a disaster and I think both Nola and Snell will want more than 5. I would pass but the new GM will want to make a splash so we will probably get one of them.

 

Snell and Nola probably start the bidding at 7 years and go up from there. Gray isn’t much older, has less wear on his arm. Five years is a bit much but I risk it.

 

The arb eligible Miami pitchers don’t look enticing. Luzardo will cost a fortune and Rogers is always either injured or awful since his one good season.

 

Other arb eligible pitchers their cheap teams might be willing to trade include: Brady Singer, Mitch Keller, Aaron Civale, Cal Quantrill, Zac Plesac, Paul Blackburn, Shane Bieber, Brandon Woodruff and Corban Burnes…

Edited by notin
Posted
This is the ideal scenario, and one many of us extolled for at least the past year. That is, if Crawford/Houck/Whitlock/Pivetta are actually good enough -- the only one we truly know, as far as potential, may be Pivetta.

 

The big problem may be that none of them are 100 mph strikeout guys -- which means, we have to rely on the defense. Yes, it will be better. But someday soon, the new GM has to address the elephant on the hot corner...

 

 

SP1 Free agent

SP2 Free agent/trade

SP3 Chris Sale

SP4 Brayan Bello

SP5 (one of Pivetta/Crawford/Houk/Whitlock)

 

I say 2-3 of those guys in the pen because it wouldn't be unsurprising if one of the 1-4 guys in unavailable in camp. I also wouldn't mind them signing a 3rd starting pitcher in addition to two aces. Someone who fits the mold of a Corey Kluber signing. I know I know, I know, just saying that hurts the ears. Sometimes signings like that work out great, and sometimes they do not. Blooms blunder was relying on Kluber, signing a guy to that profile ON TOP of signing two legit arms is fine however.

 

Anyways, those 4 are all much better in the Pen:

 

ERA/WHIP/SO9/

 

G.W. ERA 2.69 WHIP 1.056 SO9 10.1

T.H. ERA 2.69 WHIP 1.13 SO9 9.6

K.C. ERA 3.35 WHIP 1.08 SO9 9.6

N.P. ERA 4.19 WHIP 1.193 SO9 11.8

 

Throw 3 of those guys with Jansen/Martin/Winc and the pen looks stacked.

Posted
Snell and Nola probably start the bidding at 7 years and go up from there. Gray isn’t much older, has less wear on his arm. Five years is a bit much but I risk it.

 

The arb eligible Miami pitchers don’t look enticing. Luzardo will cost a fortune and Rogers is always either injured or awful since his one good season.

 

Other arb eligible pitchers their cheap teams might be willing to trade include: Brady Singer, Mitch Keller, Aaron Civale, Cal Quantrill, Zac Plesac, Paul Blackburn, Shane Bieber, Brandon Woodruff and Corban Burnes…

 

The thing is, if Nola and Snell get 7-8 or more, and Gray gets 5-6 or more, are we going to stick to our "limit" and get shut out, again, or do we say screw it and bite the bullet. (Or, go large and long on Yamamoto?)

 

I'm not sure younger FAs Giolito, Flaherty or BKeller move the needle much.

Posted
SP1 Free agent

SP2 Free agent/trade

SP3 Chris Sale

SP4 Brayan Bello

SP5 (one of Pivetta/Crawford/Houk/Whitlock)

 

I say 2-3 of those guys in the pen because it wouldn't be unsurprising if one of the 1-4 guys in unavailable in camp. I also wouldn't mind them signing a 3rd starting pitcher in addition to two aces. Someone who fits the mold of a Corey Kluber signing. I know I know, I know, just saying that hurts the ears. Sometimes signings like that work out great, and sometimes they do not. Blooms blunder was relying on Kluber, signing a guy to that profile ON TOP of signing two legit arms is fine however.

 

Anyways, those 4 are all much better in the Pen:

 

ERA/WHIP/SO9/

 

G.W. ERA 2.69 WHIP 1.056 SO9 10.1

T.H. ERA 2.69 WHIP 1.13 SO9 9.6

K.C. ERA 3.35 WHIP 1.08 SO9 9.6

N.P. ERA 4.19 WHIP 1.193 SO9 11.8

 

Throw 3 of those guys with Jansen/Martin/Winc and the pen looks stacked.

 

I just can't see counting on Sale to fill a slot in 2024. It's basically relying on jerking a pen guy back to the rotation, again.

 

Rinse and repeat the same mistakes, over and over.

Posted
The thing is, if Nola and Snell get 7-8 or more, and Gray gets 5-6 or more, are we going to stick to our "limit" and get shut out, again, or do we say screw it and bite the bullet. (Or, go large and long on Yamamoto?)

 

I'm not sure younger FAs Giolito, Flaherty or BKeller move the needle much.

 

Per my predictions, this is precisely why Bloom was let go. They're going to be making moves this offseason.

 

Whatever price the Sox have to pay to either sign or trade for a TOTRS, I guarantee a certain percentage of people in Sox Nation and on this board will highly criticize it. I'll say the same thing to them then that I will now.

 

The price of anything is worth exactly what someone is willing to pay, if you're not willing to spend a dollar more than every other team, or at least lets say 28 of the teams.....you're never going to sign said player.

Posted
I just can't see counting on Sale to fill a slot in 2024. It's basically relying on jerking a pen guy back to the rotation, again.

 

Rinse and repeat the same mistakes, over and over.

 

Which is precisely why I said 2-3 and not 3 will move to the pen, also I think a third starter is signed, although I don't expect him to be in the Snell/Yama/Nola tier.

Posted
I just can't see counting on Sale to fill a slot in 2024. It's basically relying on jerking a pen guy back to the rotation, again.

 

Rinse and repeat the same mistakes, over and over.

 

Sale seems healthy and effective right now. I get what you're saying, but you can only work with the information you have right now. Pencillng him in as a #5 seems logical.

Posted
Which is precisely why I said 2-3 and not 3 will move to the pen, also I think a third starter is signed, although I don't expect him to be in the Snell/Yama/Nola tier.

 

I think we have to plan on zero starts from Sale.

 

I think we have to plan on one of the 4 (I'd go with Pivetta) as the 5th starter, and have enough rotation depth that Crawford, Houck and Whitlock should never have to start a game, unless as an opener. Sale is the 6th starter and might add depth. I'd rather pencil in Gambrell, Wikelman or someone added as the 7th starter, over jerking our long relief guys back and forth.

 

1. Yamamoto

2. Trade for a 27 year old or younger SP

3. Bello

4. Someone like Morton on a big 1 yr deal.

5. Pivetta

6. Sale

7. Anybody not named Crawford, Houck or Whitlock

If we have to use one as the 8th SP'er, okay, but just pick one and stick with it, or trade for someone, midseason.

 

In other words, DO NOT use more than 1 of those 4 as a SP'er, even once. If an emergency forces the second one to be used, until a trade can be made, okay.

 

Just my take.

Posted
Per my predictions, this is precisely why Bloom was let go. They're going to be making moves this offseason.

 

Whatever price the Sox have to pay to either sign or trade for a TOTRS, I guarantee a certain percentage of people in Sox Nation and on this board will highly criticize it. I'll say the same thing to them then that I will now.

 

The price of anything is worth exactly what someone is willing to pay, if you're not willing to spend a dollar more than every other team, or at least lets say 28 of the teams.....you're never going to sign said player.

 

I think every poster wished the Price signing was 5 or maybe 6 years max, but we knew it took 7 to get a guy like him. It did not work out very well, but we can't let one failure scare us to death.

 

The continued failures of $10M/1 guys should be a lesson, too.

 

I understand that Eflin might never have signed with the Sox, but I'd like to have heard we offered and extra year and another $14-15M than what he took with TBR. If he said no to that, at least I'd know we tried to go the extra mile.

 

Instead, we continually came up a mile or two short.

Posted
Sale seems healthy and effective right now. I get what you're saying, but you can only work with the information you have right now. Pencillng him in as a #5 seems logical.

 

If it's not Sale, it will be someone else. We need to start planning on an injury or two. It happens every year.

 

We convert a long relief guy, who was doing great in that role, to the rotation and then watch them come up short, again and again.

 

We may have even pulled a Bard on Whitlock.

Posted
If it's not Sale, it will be someone else. We need to start planning on an injury or two. It happens every year.

 

We convert a long relief guy, who was doing great in that role, to the rotation and then watch them come up short, again and again.

 

We may have even pulled a Bard on Whitlock.

Whose decision was it to put Whit in the rotation? Cora, Bloom, or both?

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