Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[mvp 78]

Still can't believe the Boston Red Sox DFAed a guy who throws a hundred miles per hour like Kaleb Ort... what, do they have an intern studying all the insultants on talksox?

 

They didn't DFA Ort. He's still on the 40 man.

[Hugh2]

Hugh, the rotation Bloom actually assembled looked like a disaster waiting to happen. We've been more fortunate than expected with Sale and Paxton, I would suggest.

 

Can't count your fortunes if you don't acknowledge the misfortunes. That would have been Blooms rotation too, largely.

[Bellhorn04]

I would also suggest nobody expected these misfortunes that outweigh the Sale (5.01 ERA) and Paxton good luck:

 

6.26 Kluber (most expected 4.50 to 5.25)

6.17 Pivetta (most expected 4.25 to 5.00)

6.19 Whitlock (most expected 3.50 to 4.25 or better)

4.99 Houck (most expected 3.50 to 4.25 or better)

 

 

If you look at the 2022 innings pitched and WAR's for the 2023 starters, you had to be very optimistic to think this would be a good rotation.

[Hugh2]

I guess it depends on if you expected a complete s*** show, a mixed bag or really good. Looks like it's been kind of a mixed bag as can be expected. Things are turning around after the complete s*** show that the season started as.

 

26th in fWAR when they were 29th or 30th at one point (19th for May).

 

expecting a full bill of health is a lot these days, but for the time being, let's do so. At some point things will work themselves out, the rotation could get much stronger by subtracting guys like Kluber from it. Sale/Paxton/Bello at the top might be really really good, and I think there are still multiple outcomes for what type of a season Houck/whitlock can give us. The pitching has actually been really good lately, and almost feels like it's starting to come together.....except now the team doesn't want to hit all of a sudden.

 

Baseball is a funny sport, we just had an 8 game winnings streak and then went right back to being a sucky team. The pitching looks like it's trending towards a good place right now, but that could reverse course as well....or not.

[moonslav59]

If you look at the 2022 innings pitched and WAR's for the 2023 starters, you had to be very optimistic to think this would be a good rotation.

 

Agreed. We all knew it was our weakest link and by far, but the 4 pitchers I listed have been god awful, Had they just been this, we'd be in a WC slot, right now:

 

5.50 Kluber

5.25 Pivetta

4.50 Whitlock

4.00 Houck

 

Those numbers might have been viewed as very conservative in March.

[mvp 78]

If you look at the 2022 innings pitched and WAR's for the 2023 starters, you had to be very optimistic to think this would be a good rotation.

 

The ceiling was a very good rotation:

Sale - coming back to form

Paxton - coming back to form

Kluber - pitching like last year (mid rotation guy)

Bello - improving to #2 status

Whitlock - becoming a #3 type

 

The floor was:

Sale - injury or bad performance

Paxton - doesn't make it back on the field

Kluber - injury

Bello - regression or just pitches like the bad version from last year

Whitlock - injury

Pivetta - is Pivetta

 

Most likely outcome is something in between.

[Bellhorn04]

The ceiling was a very good rotation:

Sale - coming back to form

Paxton - coming back to form

Kluber - pitching like last year (mid rotation guy)

Bello - improving to #2 status

Whitlock - becoming a #3 type

 

The floor was:

Sale - injury or bad performance

Paxton - doesn't make it back on the field

Kluber - injury

Bello - regression or just pitches like the bad version from last year

Whitlock - injury

Pivetta - is Pivetta

 

Most likely outcome is something in between.

 

It could certainly have been bolstered.

[Dipre]

Bloom doesn't want to pay for starting pitching in the FA market. We've been whining for years about the Sox not being to develop pitching, and that's what they're trying to do.

 

The issue is whether or not they're successful at it.

[moonslav59]

Bloom doesn't want to pay for starting pitching in the FA market. We've been whining for years about the Sox not being to develop pitching, and that's what they're trying to do.

 

The issue is whether or not they're successful at it.

 

Houck and Bello, both DD guys seem to be coming along, well.

 

Whitlock and Wink we "developed" more by other systems, but Bloom did add them to ours before they reached the ML level.

 

I was hoping Mata, Walter or Murphy could step it up in '23, but all have gone backwards. Drohan looks real good. E R-C might make an upward move, this year, as well as a couple others.

 

[moonslav59]

Bloom doesn't want to pay for starting pitching in the FA market. We've been whining for years about the Sox not being to develop pitching, and that's what they're trying to do.

 

The issue is whether or not they're successful at it.

 

In all fairness, his budget was not very much, the first 2 years, so it is not really a clear M.O., but he had a chance this past winter and could have signed a pitcher, instead of Story back in 2022.

 

IMO, he better acquire one, soon, because I'm not ready to put all our eggs in our system producing pitching gems.

[Dipre]

To be quite honest, if I was a GM, my main strategy would be to develop pitching and pay for superstar hitting. Bust potential is so high for pitchers, that I'd only take flyers on guys with comeback potential on short-term deals.

 

Then again, I'm just some keyboard warrior who likes baseball.

[moonslav59]

To be quite honest, if I was a GM, my main strategy would be to develop pitching and pay for superstar hitting. Bust potential is so high for pitchers, that I'd only take flyers on guys with comeback potential on short-term deals.

 

Then again, I'm just some keyboard warrior who likes baseball.

 

That certainly seems like a better strategy, but until we get that system in place, and I should have said "if," we'll have to find a way to add a solid pitcher or two.

 

I'd hate to trade mayer, when we have such a big hole at SS. I'm not sure anyone else brings us an ace.

 

Buying aces hardly ever works out.

[Dipre]

That certainly seems like a better strategy, but until we get that system in place, and I should have said "if," we'll have to find a way to add a solid pitcher or two.

 

I'd hate to trade mayer, when we have such a big hole at SS. I'm not sure anyone else brings us an ace.

 

Buying aces hardly ever works out.

 

On that front, I highly recommend reading The Athletic's analysis on the improvements regarding the Red Sox' player development system. Shines a light on the efforts being made to improve players in general, but pitchers (Drohan is featured prominently) specifically.

[mvp 78]

Bloom doesn't want to pay for starting pitching in the FA market. We've been whining for years about the Sox not being to develop pitching, and that's what they're trying to do.

 

The issue is whether or not they're successful at it.

 

I think it's clear that the pipeline isn't there. Bloom still isn't really drafting rotation guys either. The plan is to be determined I guess?

[mvp 78]

That certainly seems like a better strategy, but until we get that system in place, and I should have said "if," we'll have to find a way to add a solid pitcher or two.

 

I'd hate to trade mayer, when we have such a big hole at SS. I'm not sure anyone else brings us an ace.

 

Buying aces hardly ever works out.

 

Buying is definitely the WORST way to go. It should be the last resort.

[moonslav59]

Buying is definitely the WORST way to go. It should be the last resort.

 

I'm not even sure it should ever be considered, at all.

 

The success rate is so small.

 

Our success rate on trading for very good pitchers is much higher (Pedro, Schill, Beckett and Sale and Nate/Porcello.) I wouldn't call ERod an ace, and he was a prospect when we traded for him, but he is a top 5 Sox pitcher in fWAR since 2003.

 

2000>>> 8+ fWARs

 

1. Pedro

2. Lester

3. Beckett

4. Sale

5. Wake (longevity award)

6. Schilling

7. ERod

8. Buchholz

9. Porcello

10. Price

11. Lowe

12. Lackey

13. Nate

 

 

.

[Dipre]

I think it's clear that the pipeline isn't there. Bloom still isn't really drafting rotation guys either. The plan is to be determined I guess?

 

Building a sustainable pipeline of any type of player is hard, but SP is probably the hardest. It takes time.

[moonslav59]

Building a sustainable pipeline of any type of player is hard, but SP is probably the hardest. It takes time.

 

Very few teams seem to be able to do it at a sustained rate.

[Dipre]

Very few teams seem to be able to do it at a sustained rate.

 

But some do it. Cleveland, TBR and Oakland develop a lot of good starting pitching. All low-budget teams. Coincidence?

[moonslav59]

But some do it. Cleveland, TBR and Oakland develop a lot of good starting pitching. All low-budget teams. Coincidence?

 

The Rays trade for a lot of their success stories on their staff. They draft a few real good ones, here and there, but not a ton.

 

They drafted Price, long ago, and also Cobb, Snell and McClanahan but many of their other top pitchers were acquired:

 

Top 12 fWAR pitchers in last 10 years:

Chris Archer

Blake Snell

Davis Price

Alex Cobb for Matt Garza

Charlie Morton FA

Jake Odorizzi for Jamir Shields & Wade Davis

Tyler Glasnow (with Shane Baz & Austin Meadows) for Chris Archer

Ryan Yarborough for Drew Smyly

Drew Smyly for Price

Drew Rasmussen for Willy Adames & Trevor Richards

Corey Kluber FA

 

They also have a knack at trading away good pitchers right before a steep decline.

 

To me, I look at LAD, ATL and HOU as teams that churn our SP'er after SP'er.

 

 

 

 

[Old Red]

Kluber is heading to the pen.

[mvp 78]

The Red Sox are moving struggling veteran Corey Kluber from the starting rotation to the bullpen, manager Alex Cora told hosts Andy Gresh and Christian Fauria in a radio appearance on WEEI this afternoon (Twitter link). They’ll move back to a five-man rotation consisting of Chris Sale, James Paxton, Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello for the time being.

[vegasbob]

Kluber is heading to the pen.

 

Assuming the object is to either get some mileage out of Kluber via IP or trade bait, going to the pen doesn't make Corey valuable in any way. How many long relievers do you need ? This team will lose about 30 of its next 60 games , based on recent observation , let Kluber get his share of starts. Then try like hell to move him to a GM more desperate for pitching in July. The bullpen is a DFA with perfume, not likely to fool anyone.

 

The benefit of moving him out of the way is to allow the continued development of Houck as a starter and make way for Whitlock's return.

[Old Red]

The Red Sox are moving struggling veteran Corey Kluber from the starting rotation to the bullpen, manager Alex Cora told hosts Andy Gresh and Christian Fauria in a radio appearance on WEEI this afternoon (Twitter link). They’ll move back to a five-man rotation consisting of Chris Sale, James Paxton, Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello for the time being.

 

For now the 5 man rotation is set. How long it stays that way between being consistent, and staying healthy remains to be seen.

[mvp 78]

Assuming the object is to either get some mileage out of Kluber via IP or trade bait, going to the pen doesn't make Corey valuable in any way. How many long relievers do you need ? This team will lose about 30 of its next 60 games , based on recent observation , let Kluber get his share of starts. Then try like hell to move him to a GM more desperate for pitching in July. The bullpen is a DFA with perfume, not likely to fool anyone.

 

The benefit of moving him out of the way is to allow the continued development of Houck as a starter and make way for Whitlock's return.

 

It's to keep him as a depth option in case of injury to Whitlock/Paxton/Sale. I don't think he has any value in a trade. It's either bullpen, phantom IL or DFA.

[Bellhorn04]

It's to keep him as a depth option in case of injury to Whitlock/Paxton/Sale. I don't think he has any value in a trade. It's either bullpen, phantom IL or DFA.

 

Agree on all points.

[moonslav59]

You never know: maybe Kluber can do okay as a one inning RP'er.

 

It's not like we have 8 solid RP'ers and we'll need to demote a good pitcher to keep Kluber on the 26 for a while longer.

 

Let's see where things stand when Schreiber and Bleier come off the IL.

[mvp 78]

You never know: maybe Kluber can do okay as a one inning RP'er.

 

It's not like we have 8 solid RP'ers and we'll need to demote a good pitcher to keep Kluber on the 26 for a while longer.

 

Let's see where things stand when Schreiber and Bleier come off the IL.

 

Reportedly, he was professional about the move to the bullpen. At least there's that.

[moonslav59]

Reportedly, he was professional about the move to the bullpen. At least there's that.

 

Both Kluber and Pivetta have a chance to either reinvent themselves as RP'ers, and not necessarily as just long men, or do well enough to earn another look at the rotation, if a slot opens up.

[mvp 78]

Both Kluber and Pivetta have a chance to either reinvent themselves as RP'ers, and not necessarily as just long men, or do well enough to earn another look at the rotation, if a slot opens up.

 

Pivetta maybe? I don't see it for Kluber. If Kluber gets his control back, he can get back into a rotation somewhere.