Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[Maxbialystock]

But as moonslav has pointed out many times, those expensive pitching acquisitions from other organizations have been crucial to our 4 rings. I wouldn't undo any of it.

 

Time travel is an absurd concept anyway, of course.

 

Moonslav is right. The Sox have almost always stunk at developing great pitchers, and in the John Henry era they've simply bought the ones they needed--specifically for all 4 of their WS seasons. For the best season of all, 2018, DD brought in Price, Sale, Kimbrel, and Eovaldi. But the very next season the Sox collapsed, so JH fired DD, brought in CB, and maybe swore a blood oath not to pay big bucks for another starter, However, Jansen gets $16M to be our closer.

[Old Red]

Pivetta to the BP as a long man. That takes care of the logjam for the moment for the rotation.

[Nick]

Pivetta to the BP as a long man. That takes care of the logjam for the moment for the rotation.

 

My guess is Houck will be next.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Pivetta to the BP as a long man. That takes care of the logjam for the moment for the rotation.

 

Pivetta is now saying the right things after a talk with AC, but can anyone blame him if he's thinking he just turned 30, while Kluber just turned 37, with the same basic stats this season (except on their paychecks)...

 

Nick was also a postseason hero coming out of the bullpen in '21; Corey hasn't pitched a good playoff game since '16.

[Nick]

Houck Pivetta Winck and kutter will give us solid middle relief.

[moonslav59]

Moonslav is right. The Sox have almost always stunk at developing great pitchers, and in the John Henry era they've simply bought the ones they needed--specifically for all 4 of their WS seasons. For the best season of all, 2018, DD brought in Price, Sale, Kimbrel, and Eovaldi. But the very next season the Sox collapsed, so JH fired DD, brought in CB, and maybe swore a blood oath not to pay big bucks for another starter, However, Jansen gets $16M to be our closer.

 

Top fWAR Pitchers on the Sox since 1999 (The Pedro Trade)

 

46 Pedro- trade

28 Lester

21 Beckett- trade

19 Wake- FA

18 Sale- trade

16 Lowe

15 Schill- trade

15 ERod- trade

14 Buch

14 Papelbon

13 Porcello- trade

11 Price- FA

9 Nate- trade

9 Lacket- FA

8 Dice-K- IFA

 

11 of top 15 were from outside our system.

 

Now, the data that blows it all up: our only homegrown pitcher in the top 13 seasons by a Sox pitcher since 1999 was Lester in 2009 at #11.

 

Pedro '99

Pedro '20

Sale '17

Pedro '03

Pedro '02

Schill '04

Sale '18

Nate '21

Beck '07

Pedro '01

 

Top 10: ALL TRADES!!!!!

 

Wait... it continues...

 

11. Lester '09

12. Porcello '16 Trade

13. Pedro '04 Trade

14. Lester '10

15. Lowe '02

16. Schill '06 Trade

17. Price "16 FA

18. Beck '08 Trade

19. Lester '08

20. Beck '09 Trade

21. ERod '21 Trade

22. Lester '14

23. Beck '11 Trade

24 ERod '19 Trade

25 Wake '03 FA

26 Sale '19 Trade

27 Lackey '10 FA

28 Buch '15

29 Arroyo '29 Waivers

30 Lester '13

 

Top 27 seasons:

19 by trade

3 by FA

5 from our system

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

Pivetta is now saying the right things after a talk with AC, but can anyone blame him if he's thinking he just turned 30, while Kluber just turned 37, with the same basic stats this season (except on their paychecks)...

 

Nick was also a postseason hero coming out of the bullpen in '21; Corey hasn't pitched a good playoff game since '16.

 

Last 4 starts:

Kluber 4.64 ERA, 2.95 BB/9

Pivetta 7.97 ERA, 4.43 BB/9

 

Kluber is going to be given a longer leash. How long? IDK.

[Nick]

Last 4 starts:

Kluber 4.64 ERA, 2.95 BB/9

Pivetta 7.97 ERA, 4.43 BB/9

 

Kluber is going to be given a longer leash. How long? IDK.

 

Pivetta has no data on his side.

[Nick]

Moonslav is right. The Sox have almost always stunk at developing great pitchers, and in the John Henry era they've simply bought the ones they needed--specifically for all 4 of their WS seasons. For the best season of all, 2018, DD brought in Price, Sale, Kimbrel, and Eovaldi. But the very next season the Sox collapsed, so JH fired DD, brought in CB, and maybe swore a blood oath not to pay big bucks for another starter, However, Jansen gets $16M to be our closer.

 

The more the reason to stick with Bello. 6 years of team control.

[mvp 78]

Pivetta has no data on his side.

 

I can see Pivetta's "stuff" being better out of the pen. I see Kluber still being Kluber out of the pen. Kluber will continue to be the 5 until someone better comes along. Pivetta may take over Schreiber's role or give the Sox some other spark. I'd at least rather see Pivetta for an inning than Ort/Brasier or some of the other slop they have put out there.

[moonslav59]

Top fWAR Pitchers on the Sox since 1999 (The Pedro Trade)

 

46 Pedro- trade

28 Lester

21 Beckett- trade

19 Wake- FA

18 Sale- trade

16 Lowe

15 Schill- trade

15 ERod- trade

14 Buch

14 Papelbon

13 Porcello- trade

11 Price- FA

9 Nate- trade

9 Lacket- FA

8 Dice-K- IFA

 

Some notes on the REDs:

 

Lowe ended up with a 39.4 career fWAR, so had we kept him, we would have jumped some slots, but he did spend 7+ years in BOS, which is more than some of those we traded for had.

 

Lester ended up with a 49.2 fWAR, career and spent 8+ yrs w BOS.

 

Papelbon was a RP'er.

 

Wake's high total was due, in part, to his longevity & 17 seasons with the Sox.

 

[moonslav59]

Top Sox pitchers since 1999 by season fWAR:

 

1. Pedro '99 Trade

2. Pedro '20 Trade

3. Sale '17 Trade

4. Pedro '03 Trade

5. Pedro '02 Trade

6. Schill '04 Trade

7. Sale '18 Trade

8. Nate '21 Trade

9. Beck '07 Trade

10. Pedro '01 Trade

 

Top 10: ALL TRADES!!!!!

 

11. Lester '09

12. Porcello '16 Trade

13. Pedro '04 Trade

14. Lester '10

15. Lowe '02

16. Schill '06 Trade

17. Price "16 FA

18. Beck '08 Trade

19. Lester '08

20. Beck '09 Trade

21. ERod '21 Trade

22. Lester '14

23. Beck '11 Trade

24. ERod '19 Trade

25. Wake '03 FA

26. Sale '19 Trade

27. Lackey '10 FA

28. Buch '15

29. Arroyo '29 Waivers

30. Lester '13

 

Note how our major FA AP signings have not produced great results.

 

$210M on Price and we get one top season at #17 best.

$85M on Lackey and about the same results.

 

This is not evidence to prove we can only win by trading for a top pitcher, but it has been our best method, to date.

[moonslav59]

I can see Pivetta's "stuff" being better out of the pen. I see Kluber still being Kluber out of the pen. Kluber will continue to be the 5 until someone better comes along. Pivetta may take over Schreiber's role or give the Sox some other spark. I'd at least rather see Pivetta for an inning than Ort/Brasier or some of the other slop they have put out there.

 

I don't disagree, but it's hard to know how either will do when told, give us just 2-3 innings, tonight- not 5-7.

 

I agree with the choice made.

 

Personally, I might have given Pivetta one more start and Whitlock some time from the pen, but jerking Whit around is not a good idea.

[moonslav59]

The more the reason to stick with Bello. 6 years of team control.

 

I'm very hopeful Bello can and will break the SP'er curse on our farm. He needs to get the BBs under control to be a great one, but he looks pretty damn good, now.

 

Had anyone claimed our top 3 starters, in mid May, would be Sale, Bello and Paxton, how much laughter would have ensued?

 

[notin]

I'm very hopeful Bello can and will break the SP'er curse on our farm. He needs to get the BBs under control to be a great one, but he looks pretty damn good, now.

 

Had anyone claimed our top 3 starters, in mid May, would be Sale, Bello and Paxton, how much laughter would have ensued?

 

 

Paxton has 5 IP. Not ready to put him atop any lists yet…

[moonslav59]

Paxton has 5 IP. Not ready to put him atop any lists yet…

 

Normally, I'd totally agree and am a champion of not using small sample size for anything, but the rest are so horrible, he's #3 on my list by default.

[moonslav59]

Paxton has 5 IP. Not ready to put him atop any lists yet…

 

If you had to win tonight's game to make the playoffs, who would you want?

 

A. Kluber

B. Pivetta

C. Paxton

 

(Maybe, if we knew Whitlock was healthy, I'd vote D. Whitlock.)

[mvp 78]

If you had to win tonight's game to make the playoffs, who would you want?

 

A. Kluber

B. Pivetta

C. Paxton

 

(Maybe, if we knew Whitlock was healthy, I'd vote D. Whitlock.)

 

Paxton.

[mvp 78]

Paxton has 5 IP. Not ready to put him atop any lists yet…

 

He's the ace of the staff.

[moonslav59]

Paxton.

 

No doubt.

 

It's not like he's a rookie after one goos 5 IP game, either.

[Nick]

Always go with the high ceilng guy. Even at his age, Paxton has better stuff than Pivetta.

[moonslav59]

He's the ace of the staff.

 

All other SP'ers have an ERA over 5.00 as a starter.

[Maxbialystock]

All other SP'ers have an ERA over 5.00 as a starter.

 

I think Sale is the ace. But Paxton looks pretty good, and so does Bello, even when he gives up 5 freaking walks as he did last night.

 

Backing those three up are Kluber, Houck, Crawford, Whitlock, and Pivetta (now apparently moved to the bullpen). Of those five, I prefer Crawford and Houck, but won't contest differing opinions.

 

The point is the one you've made all along--that, while the team ERA is currently 5.00 and ranked 26th in MLB, there is discernible light at the end of the tunnel we've been in.

 

And, contrary to my assertions a few days ago, the bullpen looks pretty decent too, assuming Jansen is OK. I think $16M for a closer is insane, but he already has 9 saves, more than any Sox pitcher had last season.

 

As for the weak defense, I consider it to be a nuisance more than a calamity. The team is hitting and scoring runs with the third best OPS and the 3d most runs scored in MLB--and that, I would argue, is job one for the lineup.

Edited May 18, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Great lists, as always, moon. I remember when they let Pedro and DLowe leave saying that the latter would be the guy with more longevity -- and IP -- going forward.

 

I didn't think Bronson Arroyo would be "the one that we let get away," but he had even more wins and WAR than Lester post-Boston.

 

This has been said before here, but the way staffs, starters and bullpens are used nowadays, a guy like Houck would seem most valuable as a 2-3 inning reliever... since everyone knows he is at his best and often lights-out one time through the order. No need to fix him in that role; he's already very effective at it and can help a team win and contend right now in the modern game.

[moonslav59]

Great lists, as always, moon. I remember when they let Pedro and DLowe leave saying that the latter would be the guy with more longevity -- and IP -- going forward.

 

I didn't think Bronson Arroyo would be "the one that we let get away," but he had even more wins and WAR than Lester post-Boston.

 

This has been said before here, but the way staffs, starters and bullpens are used nowadays, a guy like Houck would seem most valuable as a 2-3 inning reliever... since everyone knows he is at his best and often lights-out one time through the order. No need to fix him in that role; he's already very effective at it and can help a team win and contend right now in the modern game.

 

When 12 of the top 13 seasons from our pitchers since 1999, which is almost a quarter of a century, are from pitchers we traded for, it is pretty shocking.

 

There seems to be two obvious solutions that are not mutually excluding of each other:

 

1. Create a better system at identifying and developing young pitchers via the draft and IFA signings. (The ERod trade was great, too, as was the Whitlock Rule 5 addition, but we need to up the traditional way.)

 

2. Keep trading for aces from a farm system we seem to do very well loading up with quality everyday players.

 

[Maxbialystock]

When 12 of the top 13 seasons from our pitchers since 1999, which is almost a quarter of a century, are from pitchers we traded for, it is pretty shocking.

 

There seems to be two obvious solutions that are not mutually excluding of each other:

 

1. Create a better system at identifying and developing young pitchers via the draft and IFA signings. (The ERod trade was great, too, as was the Whitlock Rule 5 addition, but we need to up the traditional way.)

 

2. Keep trading for aces from a farm system we seem to do very well loading up with quality everyday players.

 

 

Both points good.

 

Interesting that right now Sale, Paxton, and Jansen all came from outside--along with Kluber, Pivetta, Whitlock, Schreiber, and Martin.

 

Bello came from inside, and I'm not sure about Houck, Crawford, Winck, etc.

[Maxbialystock]

I can see Pivetta's "stuff" being better out of the pen. I see Kluber still being Kluber out of the pen. Kluber will continue to be the 5 until someone better comes along. Pivetta may take over Schreiber's role or give the Sox some other spark. I'd at least rather see Pivetta for an inning than Ort/Brasier or some of the other slop they have put out there.

 

I like your last sentence. However, I found this interesting stat on espn: Pivetta's OPS-against is .970 the first time through a lineup.

[moonslav59]

Both points good.

 

Interesting that right now Sale, Paxton, and Jansen all came from outside--along with Kluber, Pivetta, Whitlock, Schreiber, and Martin.

 

Bello came from inside, and I'm not sure about Houck, Crawford, Winck, etc.

 

In system:

Bello

Houck

Crawford

(Mata, Walter, Murphy)

 

All DD pitchers.

 

Wink came in the Beni trade.

 

 

[Nick]

Drohan has been promoted to AAA and will start today.

 

He's been lights out at Portland.

 

We have some young talent coming through the system.

[moonslav59]

Drohan has been promoted to AAA and will start today.

 

He's been lights out at Portland.

 

We have some young talent coming through the system.

 

.413 OPS Against in 34 starts is off-the-charts.

 

His 36:9 K:BB is pretty impressive, too.