Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[Bellhorn04]

So in May Wacha has a .354 OPSa, with no home runs allowed, but it's all luck. Is that the conclusion of the Talksox intelligentsia?

[moonslav59]

So in May Wacha has a .354 OPSa, with no home runs allowed, but it's all luck. Is that the conclusion of the Talksox intelligentsia?

 

There is so much "advanced metrics" out there, they can find something.

 

Wacha seems to defy metrics. When his ERA is good, his FIP is worse or bad. When his ERA is bad, his FIP is better or good.

 

If he's lucky, he's on one hell of a long roll.

[Bellhorn04]

There is so much "advanced metrics" out there, they can find something.

 

Wacha seems to defy metrics. When his ERA is good, his FIP is worse or bad. When his ERA is bad, his FIP is better or good.

 

If he's lucky, he's on one hell of a long roll.

 

Yes, you have to be pretty damn lucky to keep "hard hit balls" from leaving the park for a whole month.

 

Maybe the law of diminishing returns applies to some of these advanced metrics.

[notin]

So in May Wacha has a .354 OPSa, with no home runs allowed, but it's all luck. Is that the conclusion of the Talksox intelligentsia?

 

So you’re saying his 25 innings this month are reality and his 25 innings last month are the outlier?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Wacha just must be pretty lucky. Last year he goes 11-2 for a last place team, and this year he's 5-1 for another club under .500.

 

And he's only one win behind another ex-Red Sox ex-teammate who leads the majors in innings pitched! But this season is still eovalding...

[Bellhorn04]

So you’re saying his 25 innings this month are reality and his 25 innings last month are the outlier?

 

In my view it's all reality.

[Bellhorn04]

Wacha just must be pretty lucky. Last year he goes 11-2 for a last place team, and this year he's 5-1 for another club under .500.

 

And he's only one win behind another ex-Red Sox ex-teammate who leads the majors in innings pitched! But this season is still eovalding...

 

That's a keeper.

[moonslav59]

Wacha year by year: better of ERA or FIP:

 

2.78

3.17

3.38

3.91

3.63

3.20

4.76

5.25 (short 2020 season)

4.47

3.32

3.48 (so far in 2023)

 

[Maxbialystock]

So in May Wacha has a .354 OPSa, with no home runs allowed, but it's all luck. Is that the conclusion of the Talksox intelligentsia?

 

Not me. I said he was "great in May" before anyone else did:o. But of course I didn't make the cut for the intelligentsia.

[Maxbialystock]

Right now the Sox sure like like they have four decent starters in Sale, Paxton, Bello, and Houck.

 

However, the bullpen seems to be springing leaks, and the "no name" lineup is, well, offensive to the nostrils. They stink.

[mvp 78]

Yes. Did he all of a sudden become a CY type pitcher when he's about to turn 32?

[mvp 78]

There is so much "advanced metrics" out there, they can find something.

 

Wacha seems to defy metrics. When his ERA is good, his FIP is worse or bad. When his ERA is bad, his FIP is better or good.

 

If he's lucky, he's on one hell of a long roll.

 

Just look at his Statcast page.

[mvp 78]

Wacha just must be pretty lucky. Last year he goes 11-2 for a last place team, and this year he's 5-1 for another club under .500.

 

And he's only one win behind another ex-Red Sox ex-teammate who leads the majors in innings pitched! But this season is still eovalding...

 

And the TBR, a team noted for developing pitching, sent him to the pen because he sucked there.

[mvp 78]

Not me. I said he was "great in May" before anyone else did:o. But of course I didn't make the cut for the intelligentsia.

 

Wow, must be really hard to look at game logs?

[moonslav59]

...However, the bullpen seems to be springing leaks...

 

Sox pen in the last 7 games:

 

22.1 IP

3 ER

1.21 ERA

20 BB+H

0.896 WHIP

[mvp 78]

Wacha year by year: better of ERA or FIP:

C'mon man. This is just embarrassing.

[moonslav59]

C'mon man. This is just embarrassing.

 

I knew you'd love that!

[Dipre]

So in May Wacha has a .354 OPSa, with no home runs allowed, but it's all luck. Is that the conclusion of the Talksox intelligentsia?

 

Yes. His stuff is not very good, and his outcomes don't match the quality of the contact he's allowed.

[Dipre]

Just look at his Statcast page.

 

Doesn't have high velocity, great spin or great movement. He's giving up a lot of barrels and hard contact. We're not trying to develop a mind reading machine here.

[mvp 78]

Doesn't have high velocity, great spin or great movement. He's giving up a lot of barrels and hard contact. We're not trying to develop a mind reading machine here.

 

But if you take the lower number of his ERA or xFIP from each year, he's a pretty good pitcher!!!

 

Also, he's only allowed 1 run in the past 25 innings and that's most certainly to continue through October and beyond. Wacha will certainly pitch 200 innings this year just as he has in previous seasons without issue! Good value play by the Padres!

 

Can't believe Bloom called 28 other teams and told them not to sign Wacha either. What a low move! It was pretty brave of the Padres to hold out until the middle of March to sign such an elite pitcher like Michael f***ing Wacha!

[moonslav59]

Yes. His stuff is not very good, and his outcomes don't match the quality of the contact he's allowed.

 

Someone disagrees:

 

SCOUTING REPORT

A towering right-hander with an ideal pitchers' frame (6-6, 215 pounds), he has very good sinking movement on his fastball and a great changeup. Displays great command of the strike zone. Can dominate under pressure. What may prevent him from becoming a big winner in the bigs is his lack of a dominant breaking pitch, though his slider is improving. It may also prevent him from becoming a big strikeout pitcher. Injuries are an issue.

 

Long Range Potential: Excellent right-hander, when healthy.

-Sports Forecaster

[mvp 78]

Yes. His stuff is not very good, and his outcomes don't match the quality of the contact he's allowed.

 

No, it's because they have 5 shortstops behind him!

1. Xander the amazing

2. Tatis the guy who was to be moved off SS for a long time (negative DRS/negative OAA at SS)

3. Machado now Odor(-36 DRS at 2B)

4. Kim an actual defender

5. Cronenworth?

 

Yes, there is considerable luck involved AND Petco's run suppression. Seth Lugo is a similar pitcher, why aren't those same defenders helping him as much?

[mvp 78]

Someone disagrees:

 

SCOUTING REPORT

A towering right-hander with an ideal pitchers' frame (6-6, 215 pounds), he has very good sinking movement on his fastball and a great changeup. Displays great command of the strike zone. Can dominate under pressure. What may prevent him from becoming a big winner in the bigs is his lack of a dominant breaking pitch, though his slider is improving. It may also prevent him from becoming a big strikeout pitcher. Injuries are an issue.

 

Long Range Potential: Excellent right-hander, when healthy.

-Sports Forecaster

 

Dominate under pressure? He has a 5.21 ERA in the postseason. LOL

[Bellhorn04]

Yes. His stuff is not very good, and his outcomes don't match the quality of the contact he's allowed.

 

Better to be lucky than good, then, in a wacky game like baseball, I guess.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Better to be lucky than good, then, in a wacky game like baseball, I guess.

 

Still can't believe the Boston Red Sox DFAed a guy who throws a hundred miles per hour like Kaleb Ort... what, do they have an intern studying all the insultants on talksox?

[moonslav59]

Dominate under pressure? He has a 5.21 ERA in the postseason. LOL

 

The response was on "stuff."

 

BTW, he has a .731 career OPS Against.

 

.727 Late & Close

.699 RISP

.685 2 out, RISP

 

He's had some luck- good and bad over his career. He's got some good "stuff" but not great and not bad.

[Hugh2]

To think we could have a rotation of

 

Sale

Paxton

Bello

Eovaldi

Wacha

Whitlock

 

That would look good now, but it would have looked like a disaster waiting to happen this offseason. It still could be by seasons end (the one listed here and the one we have now).

\

baseball is a funny game.

[Bellhorn04]

To think we could have a rotation of

 

Sale

Paxton

Bello

Eovaldi

Wacha

Whitlock

 

That would look good now, but it would have looked like a disaster waiting to happen this offseason. It still could be by seasons end (the one listed here and the one we have now).

\

baseball is a funny game.

 

Hugh, the rotation Bloom actually assembled looked like a disaster waiting to happen. We've been more fortunate than expected with Sale and Paxton, I would suggest.

[moonslav59]

Hugh, the rotation Bloom actually assembled looked like a disaster waiting to happen. We've been more fortunate than expected with Sale and Paxton, I would suggest.

 

I would also suggest nobody expected these misfortunes that outweigh the Sale (5.01 ERA) and Paxton good luck:

 

6.26 Kluber (most expected 4.50 to 5.25)

6.17 Pivetta (most expected 4.25 to 5.00)

6.19 Whitlock (most expected 3.50 to 4.25 or better)

4.99 Houck (most expected 3.50 to 4.25 or better)

 

[mvp 78]

Hugh, the rotation Bloom actually assembled looked like a disaster waiting to happen. We've been more fortunate than expected with Sale and Paxton, I would suggest.

 

I guess it depends on if you expected a complete s*** show, a mixed bag or really good. Looks like it's been kind of a mixed bag as can be expected. Things are turning around after the complete s*** show that the season started as.

 

26th in fWAR when they were 29th or 30th at one point (19th for May).