Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[notin]

Most guys with a good and varied but not overpowering arsenal are better as starters. And a knuckleballer in relief is asking for trouble.

 

Do knuckleballers still exist?

[Dipre]

Do knuckleballers still exist?

 

I think there are a couple floating around in the league.

[Dipre]

Actually most guys when going to the pen can add 3-4 mph to a fastball since they don’t have to pace themselves. You see this happen every All Star game when pitcher normally a starter just goes one inning.

 

Not to mention facing a hitter one time per game.

 

No, I get that point. That's what I meant by guys who don't overpower. A guy throwing 90 living by pitch mix isn't going to get much out of throwing a max effort 93 out of the BP if he can't establish his arsenal longer term. If you sit 94 and can throw 98 out of the 'Pen, that's another can of worms.

[Old Red]

Wacha. 6 IP- 2H- Shutout today.

[notin]

Wacha. 6 IP- 2H- Shutout today.

 

He wouldn’t be able to do that in Boston with Hernandez and Valdez up the middle…

[Old Red]

I guess Dermody is going tonight. Why no Whitlock I don’t know.

[Bellhorn04]

He wouldn’t be able to do that in Boston with Hernandez and Valdez up the middle…

 

After last night Wacha has a 3.52 FIP and a 1.7 fWAR. The metrics say he's pitching well, not just lucky.

[notin]

After last night Wacha has a 3.52 FIP and a 1.7 fWAR. The metrics say he's pitching well, not just lucky.

 

And that’s been good for San Diego. But Wacha pitching like this was hardly an easily anticipated outcome. I’d say most people were surprised by his success last year…

[Bellhorn04]

And that’s been good for San Diego. But Wacha pitching like this was hardly an easily anticipated outcome. I’d say most people were surprised by his success last year…

 

When Bloom signed him last year it was noted that Wacha finished 2021 strongly after making a change in his pitch mix.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And that’s been good for San Diego. But Wacha pitching like this was hardly an easily anticipated outcome. I’d say most people were surprised by his success last year…

 

He proved he could be successful. Just shows again how stubborn perceptions get exposed by reality.

 

Through the various levels of pro-am ball I've participated in over the decades -- playing, coaching, watching -- this question, paraphrased here, always comes up:

 

Is he good or just doing good (well...)?

 

All-Star rosters at amateur levels used to be determined by merit, with voters selecting worthy players based on their seasons, often with statistics as credentials. Nowadays, I see Little Leaguers have to try out for All-Star squads, in front of evaluators who don't know the kids or haven't ever seen them play in actual games. So naturally, anyone with a good arm and decent wheels makes the team (even if he's 0-for-20 with 20 strikeouts).

 

Does he look good or is he actually performing? Now someone will say, 29 other teams ignored Wacha before he signed with the Pads. Yup, he proved them all wrong.

[notin]

When Bloom signed him last year it was noted that Wacha finished 2021 strongly after making a change in his pitch mix.

 

It’s also possible they weren’t wild about something about Wacha. His HR/9 was 1.3 last year, which, while the best it’s been since 2018, isn’t a dazzling rate. It’s down to 0.8 this year, which of a no part of why his FIP and fWAR are improving. Maybe they weren’t wild about that?

 

Eovaldi and Pivetta had higher HR/9. But then Eovaldi wasn’t retained and Pivetta was still under control but is pushing himself into non-tender territory this year…

[mvp 78]

I guess Dermody is going tonight. Why no Whitlock I don’t know.

 

White flag.

 

From OTM today:

 

Three and a half years of this nonsense. The goal of the organization is to win baseball games, not derive the slightest of edges from decreasingly important spots on the field. If Corey Kluber and Nick Pivetta aren’t good enough to start, maybe they never were, and if you’re forced to turn to Matt f***ing Dermody to stay above .500 in mid-June, at what point are you the problem? Bloom’s best two moves, by far, have been signing Masataka Yoshida for far above MLB consensus and drafting Marcelo Mayer at the fourth pick when he fell due to contract concerns. These were a) a well-thought out move with a huge upside and A move that fell in his lap and, because he ran the Red Sox and not the Rays, he was able to execute. In both of these cases, the Red Sox used their status as a behemoth to bring talented people on board.

 

They are the exceptions to Bloom’s rule. His tenure, so far, is defined by stunts like the Darmody Affair. So why does this brilliant and often charming guy keep kicking the can on a championship series, only to deny he did so once it’s left his foot, in front of scores of witnesses? It’s not a rhetorical question, and the answer hasn’t changed since he was brought aboard: It’s because this is a five-year plan, always has been a five-year plan, and he is working to that end. It’s plain as day, but he just won’t say it. He thinks you can’t handle the truth, or acts like he does because ownership says so, but they deserve each other at this point — and, as fans, we deserve better than Matt Dermody, for every reason there is.

[notin]

He proved he could be successful. Just shows again how stubborn perceptions get exposed by reality.

 

Through the various levels of pro-am ball I've participated in over the decades -- playing, coaching, watching -- this question, paraphrased here, always comes up:

 

Is he good or just doing good (well...)?

 

All-Star rosters at amateur levels used to be determined by merit, with voters selecting worthy players based on their seasons, often with statistics as credentials. Nowadays, I see Little Leaguers have to try out for All-Star squads, in front of evaluators who don't know the kids or haven't ever seen them play in actual games. So naturally, anyone with a good arm and decent wheels makes the team (even if he's 0-for-20 with 20 strikeouts).

 

Does he look good or is he actually performing? Now someone will say, 29 other teams ignored Wacha before he signed with the Pads. Yup, he proved them all wrong.

 

Well, he is in the process of proving them all wrong. But 5 weeks ago, he was in the process of proving them all correct…

[mvp 78]

When Bloom signed him last year it was noted that Wacha finished 2021 strongly after making a change in his pitch mix.

 

Brasier finished 2022 strongly too!

[Dipre]

After last night Wacha has a 3.52 FIP and a 1.7 fWAR. The metrics say he's pitching well, not just lucky.

 

I'll bet dollars to doughnuts he either ends the season with an FIP and ERA+ below league average, or on the IL. Lots of crappy pitchers have good half SSS seasons. Eovaldi I can buy because he's always had amazing stuff, but Wacha has been mediocre for years, and his batted ball profile is terrible. That's not a hill you want to die on.

[Bellhorn04]

White flag.

 

From OTM today:

 

Three and a half years of this nonsense. The goal of the organization is to win baseball games, not derive the slightest of edges from decreasingly important spots on the field. If Corey Kluber and Nick Pivetta aren’t good enough to start, maybe they never were, and if you’re forced to turn to Matt f***ing Dermody to stay above .500 in mid-June, at what point are you the problem? Bloom’s best two moves, by far, have been signing Masataka Yoshida for far above MLB consensus and drafting Marcelo Mayer at the fourth pick when he fell due to contract concerns. These were a) a well-thought out move with a huge upside and A move that fell in his lap and, because he ran the Red Sox and not the Rays, he was able to execute. In both of these cases, the Red Sox used their status as a behemoth to bring talented people on board.

 

They are the exceptions to Bloom’s rule. His tenure, so far, is defined by stunts like the Darmody Affair. So why does this brilliant and often charming guy keep kicking the can on a championship series, only to deny he did so once it’s left his foot, in front of scores of witnesses? It’s not a rhetorical question, and the answer hasn’t changed since he was brought aboard: It’s because this is a five-year plan, always has been a five-year plan, and he is working to that end. It’s plain as day, but he just won’t say it. He thinks you can’t handle the truth, or acts like he does because ownership says so, but they deserve each other at this point — and, as fans, we deserve better than Matt Dermody, for every reason there is.

 

I'd be comforted if I thought Bloom actually does have a 5 year plan, one that has a chance of working, at least.

[Dipre]

White flag.

 

From OTM today:

 

Three and a half years of this nonsense. The goal of the organization is to win baseball games, not derive the slightest of edges from decreasingly important spots on the field. If Corey Kluber and Nick Pivetta aren’t good enough to start, maybe they never were, and if you’re forced to turn to Matt f***ing Dermody to stay above .500 in mid-June, at what point are you the problem? Bloom’s best two moves, by far, have been signing Masataka Yoshida for far above MLB consensus and drafting Marcelo Mayer at the fourth pick when he fell due to contract concerns. These were a) a well-thought out move with a huge upside and A move that fell in his lap and, because he ran the Red Sox and not the Rays, he was able to execute. In both of these cases, the Red Sox used their status as a behemoth to bring talented people on board.

 

They are the exceptions to Bloom’s rule. His tenure, so far, is defined by stunts like the Darmody Affair. So why does this brilliant and often charming guy keep kicking the can on a championship series, only to deny he did so once it’s left his foot, in front of scores of witnesses? It’s not a rhetorical question, and the answer hasn’t changed since he was brought aboard: It’s because this is a five-year plan, always has been a five-year plan, and he is working to that end. It’s plain as day, but he just won’t say it. He thinks you can’t handle the truth, or acts like he does because ownership says so, but they deserve each other at this point — and, as fans, we deserve better than Matt Dermody, for every reason there is.

 

Matt Derwho?

[Bellhorn04]

I'll bet dollars to doughnuts he either ends the season with an FIP and ERA+ below league average, or on the IL. Lots of crappy pitchers have good half SSS seasons. Eovaldi I can buy because he's always had amazing stuff, but Wacha has been mediocre for years, and his batted ball profile is terrible. That's not a hill you want to die on.

 

Sounds like we have 2 bets for funsies now.

 

1. JD Martinez vs. Turner in fWAR

2. Wacha FIP/ERA+/injury

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sounds like we have 2 bets for funsies now.

 

1. JD Martinez vs. Turner in fWAR

2. Wacha FIP/ERA+/injury

 

WAR and Pieces

[Dipre]

Sounds like we have 2 bets for funsies now.

 

1. JD Martinez vs. Turner in fWAR

2. Wacha FIP/ERA+/injury

 

I'm actually much more confident in Wacha eventually sucking than JD.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm actually much more confident in Wacha eventually sucking than JD.

 

Let me ask you this: how does Wacha have an fWAR of 1.7? Is it a meaningless metric?

[Dipre]

Let me ask you this: how does Wacha have an fWAR of 1.7? Is it a meaningless metric?

 

What's more important for the purposes of the analysis of overall player performance? A 2-month sample, a year of data, or years of data? I can dig countless examples of guys coming up, providing one-two months of crazy stats, regressing, and ending the season as a below average player. Sometimes, it's luck, sometimes a player adapts, the league adapts back, and they don't have an answer for it. We all know Wacha is who he is, a guy with mediocre stuff who doesn't strike out or overpower a lot of batters. That's who he is.

[Bellhorn04]

What's more important for the purposes of the analysis of overall player performance? A 2-month sample, a year of data, or years of data? I can dig countless examples of guys coming up, providing one-two months of crazy stats, regressing, and ending the season as a below average player. Sometimes, it's luck, sometimes a player adapts, the league adapts back, and they don't have an answer for it. We all know Wacha is who he is, a guy with mediocre stuff who doesn't strike out or overpower a lot of batters. That's who he is.

 

Over the last 3 seasons, 2021-2023, he has an accumulated fWAR of 4.3 in 320 innings. If we use 160 innings as a full season, that's 2.15 fWAR per season. That's a tick above average, a solid #3 starter.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What's more important for the purposes of the analysis of overall player performance? A 2-month sample, a year of data, or years of data? I can dig countless examples of guys coming up, providing one-two months of crazy stats, regressing, and ending the season as a below average player. Sometimes, it's luck, sometimes a player adapts, the league adapts back, and they don't have an answer for it. We all know Wacha is who he is, a guy with mediocre stuff who doesn't strike out or overpower a lot of batters. That's who he is.

 

And sometimes, an arm is cooked, no matter how many new pitches and adjustments an old pitcher can master. What do all the years of data on Kluber mean for this season? Even if he suddenly develops an unhittable knuckle-ball and hangs around for another decade, past data for the way he used to pitch doesn't really pertain.

[mvp 78]

Matt Derwho?

 

WOO's 4th or 5th starter. Garbage arm.

[mvp 78]

I'm actually much more confident in Wacha eventually sucking than JD.

 

JD typically starts off the year hot. I expect him to fall back to earth at some point. I'm not sure what effect Petco will have on Wacha if any. Wacha's currently on pace for 187 innings which would be a career high. Seems unlikely? He'll probably hit the IL at some point and we'll see reduced effectiveness afterwards. IDK.

[mvp 78]

Over the last 3 seasons, 2021-2023, he has an accumulated fWAR of 4.3 in 320 innings. If we use 160 innings as a full season, that's 2.15 fWAR per season. That's a tick above average, a solid #3 starter.

 

That's because it's heavily weighted towards his 1.7 fWAR over the previous 68 innings. 40% of all his fWAR since 4/1/21 has come just the past two months!

[mvp 78]

Also, saying "if we use 160 innings as a full season" is a little silly as he's only pitched over 160 innings TWICE in his 12 years pitching professionally (even including MiLB innings).

[moonslav59]

There have been many successful pitchers who never had great strike out stuff but got batters to hit into outs.

 

Wacha has had more than just a few good months here and there. Yes, he has had his share of bad months, too, but I’m not so sure all his recent success usa fluke.

[vegasbob]

White flag.

 

From OTM today:

 

Three and a half years of this nonsense. The goal of the organization is to win baseball games, not derive the slightest of edges from decreasingly important spots on the field. If Corey Kluber and Nick Pivetta aren’t good enough to start, maybe they never were, and if you’re forced to turn to Matt f***ing Dermody to stay above .500 in mid-June, at what point are you the problem? Bloom’s best two moves, by far, have been signing Masataka Yoshida for far above MLB consensus and drafting Marcelo Mayer at the fourth pick when he fell due to contract concerns. These were a) a well-thought out move with a huge upside and A move that fell in his lap and, because he ran the Red Sox and not the Rays, he was able to execute. In both of these cases, the Red Sox used their status as a behemoth to bring talented people on board.

 

They are the exceptions to Bloom’s rule. His tenure, so far, is defined by stunts like the Darmody Affair. So why does this brilliant and often charming guy keep kicking the can on a championship series, only to deny he did so once it’s left his foot, in front of scores of witnesses? It’s not a rhetorical question, and the answer hasn’t changed since he was brought aboard: It’s because this is a five-year plan, always has been a five-year plan, and he is working to that end. It’s plain as day, but he just won’t say it. He thinks you can’t handle the truth, or acts like he does because ownership says so, but they deserve each other at this point — and, as fans, we deserve better than Matt Dermody, for every reason there is.

 

Thanks for reposting the OTM quote. You should put it in the Fire Bloom thread too. It rings true, even if slightly hyperbolic