A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Old Red]

Even though Kiké has kinda sucked on the field, I think his off field presence has really helped this team. Verdugo has stepped up a lot too. This team may not be the most talented team in the division, but they battle. They have done so from game 1.

 

Sometimes the most talented teams on paper don’t do so well. There are a few big money talented teams right now that aren’t doing that great.

[moonslav59]

The dreaded west coast road trip is upon us, one of three this year, but is is not our typical left coast trip. The AL teams are split up into three trips:

 

This one: 3 SDP, 3 LAA, off day 3 AZ

 

Mid July (a short one): 3 CWS & 3 OAK

 

End July: 3 SFG & 3 SEA (at the trade deadline)

[moonslav59]

A look at our top OPS+ leaders is an eye-opener. I included those with small sample sizes by noting their PA totals. All others are over 90 PAs:

 

303 Duvall 37

176 Reyes 20

168 Duran

136 Yoshida

135 Verdugo

118 Devers

115 Turner

110 Valdez 59

104 Refsnyder 78

 

90 Casas

86 Wong

81 McGuire 74

81 Tapia 64

77 Arroyo 79

74 Kike

38 Dalbec 13

35 Chang 47

 

OPS+ Against (PAs Against if under 45)

-100 Garza 6

48 Sheriff 8

66 Martin

66 Wink

68 Paxton 20

70 Craford

88 Schreiber

92 Houck

 

105 Sale

110 Jansen

112 Bernardino

117 Brasier (DFA'd)

117 Joely 6

125 Bleier

127 Littell (Gone)

129 Bello

130 Kelly 34 (may be lost for the season w injury)

137 Kluber

141 Pivetta

155 Whitlock

161 Ort

176 Reyes 7

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

It's only mid May, but it is interesting to note we are just...

 

4.5 GB the second best record in MLB (BAL)

4.0 behind the 3rd (LAD)

3.5 the 4th (ATL)

2.5 the 5th (TEX)

1.5 the 6th (TOR)

1.0 the 7th (AZ)

0.5 the 8th (HOU, MIL, NYY)

 

That being said, parity has also created us being only...

4.5 GA of 23rd (CHC)

4.0 ahead of 22nd (CLE & SDP)

3.5 ahead of 18-20th (DET, SFG & PHI)

3.0 of 17th (NYM)

2.5 of 16th (SEA)

2.0 of 15th (LAA)

1.5 of 14th (MIA)

0.5 of 13th (PIT)

0.0 of 12th (MIN)

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

It's only mid May, but it is interesting to note we are just...

 

4.5 GB the second best record in MLB (BAL)

4.0 behind the 3rd (LAD)

3.5 the 4th (ATL)

2.5 the 5th (TEX)

1.5 the 6th (TOR)

1.0 the 7th (AZ)

0.5 the 8th (HOU, MIL, NYY)

 

That being said, parity has also created us being only...

4.5 GA of 23rd (CHC)

4.0 ahead of 22nd (CLE & SDP)

3.5 ahead of 18-20th (DET, SFG & PHI)

3.0 of 17th (NYM)

2.5 of 16th (SEA)

2.0 of 15th (LAA)

1.5 of 14th (MIA)

0.5 of 13th (PIT)

0.0 of 12th (MIN)

 

 

 

 

This isn't parity, it's because it's early in the season.

[Bellhorn04]

This isn't parity, it's because it's early in the season.

 

Could be both.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A look at our top OPS+ leaders is an eye-opener. I included those with small sample sizes by noting their PA totals. All others are over 90 PAs:

 

303 Duvall 37

176 Reyes 20

168 Duran

136 Yoshida

135 Verdugo

118 Devers

115 Turner

110 Valdez 59

104 Refsnyder 78

 

90 Casas

86 Wong

81 McGuire 74

81 Tapia 64

77 Arroyo 79

74 Kike

38 Dalbec 13

35 Chang 47

 

OPS+ Against (PAs Against if under 45)

-100 Garza 6

48 Sheriff 8

66 Martin

66 Wink

68 Paxton 20

70 Craford

88 Schreiber

92 Houck

 

105 Sale

110 Jansen

112 Bernardino

117 Brasier (DFA'd)

117 Joely 6

125 Bleier

127 Littell (Gone)

129 Bello

130 Kelly 34 (may be lost for the season w injury)

137 Kluber

141 Pivetta

155 Whitlock

161 Ort

176 Reyes 7

 

 

 

 

Pablo has the same + and - as a hitter and pitcher. Let's see Ohtani do that!

[Maxbialystock]

Could be both.

 

Not really. MVP 78 is right. The Rays winning percentage is .727 and ours is .545, but we are only 8 games behind them because we are less than 1/3 into this season.

 

Also, espn did an article about how the scheduling change this season. Teams in the same division only play each other 13 times instead of 19. So it's now clear how much better the AL East is than the other 5 divisions. Thus the Sox, dead last in the

AL East, have the same winning percentage as the Twins, who lead the AL Central.

 

A whole lot of baseball ahead of us.

 

Right now moonslav's optimism seems justified. Thanks to Sale, Paxton, and Bello, the rotation looks almost decent, especially when Cora has 5 starters--Kluber, Houck, Crawford, Whitlock, and Pivetta (now in the bullpen)--to choose from for his last 2 starters. The bullpen also looks promising, but only if Jansen is still Jansen. And the "no name" lineup has hit incredibly well without Story and Duvall.

Edited May 18, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

Teams in the same division only play each other 13 times instead of 19. So it's now clear how much better the AL East is than the other 5 divisions. Thus the Sox, dead last in the

AL East, have the same winning percentage as the Twins, who lead the AL Central.

 

Too bad there aren't 4 WC teams, because whoever finishes last in the vaunted ALE will miss out, no matter how much better they might be over another division winner or two.

 

In this sense, all ALE teams were helped, equally by the changes made, but it will help us beat out any non ALE team threatening to squeeze out an ALE team for a WC slot.

 

Right now, TEX and HOU are looking pretty good and should win a WC slot, so the ALE 4th and 5th place teams may miss out.

[moonslav59]

Right now moonslav's optimism seems justified. T

 

Just don't call it "realism."

[moonslav59]

Right now moonslav's optimism seems justified. Thanks to Sale, Paxton, and Bello, the rotation looks almost decent, especially when Cora has 5 starters--Kluber, Houck, Crawford, Whitlock, and Pivetta (now in the bullpen)--to choose from for his last 2 starters. The bullpen also looks promising, but only if Jansen is still Jansen. And the "no name" lineup has hit incredibly well without Story and Duvall.

 

It's hard to think out rotation can't or won't improve over the first quarter's results. Possible? Yes. Probably? No. In a way, that is not optimism but something that should be expected.

 

How much it improves will be the key.

 

The offense should be strong. If some surprise players fall off, others that are underperforming (Casas, Kike, Arroyo & Devers) and returning players (Story & Duvall) should take up the slack or even improve the offense.

 

Pens are always tough to project. We improved it, on paper, and that is really all a GM can do. Now, we have to just hope the expectations are met.

[Maxbialystock]

Too bad there aren't 4 WC teams, because whoever finishes last in the vaunted ALE will miss out, no matter how much better they might be over another division winner or two.

 

In this sense, all ALE teams were helped, equally by the changes made, but it will help us beat out any non ALE team threatening to squeeze out an ALE team for a WC slot.

 

Right now, TEX and HOU are looking pretty good and should win a WC slot, so the ALE 4th and 5th place teams may miss out.

 

Hard to argue against Texas and Houston. On the other hand, the Sox are very close to both the Jays and Yankees, and there is always the hope the Orioles will falter.

 

Also, as you and others have pointed out, CB and JH might decided to acquire an arm or two. Plus one can certainly hope that Duvall, Story, and Mondesi will actually contribute this season.

[Old Red]

To me there are to many WC teams as it is. what makes everything close now as it is could be the big money teams like SD, Mets, and Phillies are treading water right now, and are down with teams they shouldn’t be with. At least on paper anyway. I would just do away with divisions myself, and have everyone play the same schedule, and the teams with the best record go to the postseason.

[Nick]

What would it cost to get an upgrade over

Sale

Paxton

Kluber

Bello

Whitlock?

 

What prospects?

 

I just don't see Bloom giving up top prospects this year.

Edited May 18, 2023 by Nick

[Nick]

2 losses to St. Louis really hurts.

[Old Red]

Duvall looking at June 9 as a return date. Things could change a lot between now, and then about where, and how often he would play. I don’t expect him to just pick up where he left off with the bat, but who knows.

[moonslav59]

Hard to argue against Texas and Houston. On the other hand, the Sox are very close to both the Jays and Yankees, and there is always the hope the Orioles will falter.

 

Also, as you and others have pointed out, CB and JH might decided to acquire an arm or two. Plus one can certainly hope that Duvall, Story, and Mondesi will actually contribute this season.

 

I think our best chance at passing someone ahead of us is BAL.

 

TOR might be second.

 

Maybe TEX imploses, despite all the top talent they added, recently.

 

NYY has a putrid offense and is almost always injury prone.

 

HOU is too good to realistically hope we can pass.

 

The Rays are in a class by themselves. For those who call us TB North, I wish!

 

[moonslav59]

2 losses to St. Louis really hurts.

 

3 to PIT, too. It seems we played them at the wrong time of their season.

[mvp 78]

What would it cost to get an upgrade over

Sale

Paxton

Kluber

Bello

Whitlock?

 

What prospects?

 

I just don't see Bloom giving up top prospects this year.

 

I think it would depend on who was available.

 

Sandy Alcantara? Zac Gallen? Is it worth emptying the farm?

 

Giolito is probably available and wouldn't empty the farm. (Yorke, Walter, Lugo) He'd be a big upgrade over Kluber.

[Bellhorn04]

2 losses to St. Louis really hurts.

 

The third one sucked too.

[Bellhorn04]

Duvall looking at June 9 as a return date. Things could change a lot between now, and then about where, and how often he would play. I don’t expect him to just pick up where he left off with the bat, but who knows.

 

Pretty good news, all things considered.

[moonslav59]

I think it would depend on who was available.

 

Sandy Alcantara? Zac Gallen? Is it worth emptying the farm?

 

Giolito is probably available and wouldn't empty the farm. (Yorke, Walter, Lugo) He'd be a big upgrade over Kluber.

 

It's hard to know who might be available and most would take an extension, at a reasonable cost, to be worth trading several top prospects to get.

 

3.5

B Singer

 

2.5 yrs

Gallen

Cease

Keller

 

1.5 yrs

Bieber

Burnes

Woodruff

(Alex Cobb)

 

0.5

Giolito

S Gray

Montgomery

Snell

 

[moonslav59]

Pretty good news, all things considered.

 

It might take a while to find his stride, and of course, we can't expect what he gave us those first 2 weeks.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's hard to know who might be available and most would take an extension, at a reasonable cost, to be worth trading several top prospects to get.

 

3.5

B Singer

 

2.5 yrs

Gallen

Cease

Keller

 

1.5 yrs

Bieber

Burnes

Woodruff

(Alex Cobb)

 

0.5

Giolito

S Gray

Montgomery

Snell

 

 

The Brewers, Guards and Twins are contenders, and because of their divisions, usually are. The Pirates and Dbacks are surprises so far. That leaves the disappointments in SD and St. Lou -- and no starters on those staffs are pitching like an upgrade right now (except maybe Wacha).

 

But the White Sox, another flop, have two AL-tested guys that would definitely help. But they'd want young pitching to replace them. No matter what Sam Kennedy says, is it rational to go for a ring this year and trade Drohan? Discerning posters just cringed.

 

The Red Sox could really use a difference-maker, a George Kirby type, but the cost would be very painful. But that's what would have to happen if they're serious about this season.

[moonslav59]

The Brewers, Guards and Twins are contenders, and because of their divisions, usually are. The Pirates and Dbacks are surprises so far. That leaves the disappointments in SD and St. Lou -- and no starters on those staffs are pitching like an upgrade right now (except maybe Wacha).

 

The Brewers will not extend all their SP'ers, so even as a contender, they may move to move Burnes or Woodruff.

 

The Guardians don't seem to want to spend big, and they may fall out of contention by the end of July.

 

Hard to know what the Twins ever think.

[moonslav59]

The Brewers, Guards and Twins are contenders, and because of their divisions, usually are. The Pirates and Dbacks are surprises so far. That leaves the disappointments in SD and St. Lou -- and no starters on those staffs are pitching like an upgrade right now (except maybe Wacha).

 

But the White Sox, another flop, have two AL-tested guys that would definitely help. But they'd want young pitching to replace them. No matter what Sam Kennedy says, is it rational to go for a ring this year and trade Drohan? Discerning posters just cringed.

 

The Red Sox could really use a difference-maker, a George Kirby type, but the cost would be very painful. But that's what would have to happen if they're serious about this season.

 

Trying to come up with a package that does not include Mayer, Bleis or Drohan is just about impossible. I doubt larger packages that would have to include some combination of these gets it done....

Rafaela

Yorke

Romero

Anthony

E R-C

Walter

Mata

[Nick]

Question then becomes do we empty the farm JUST to get into the playoffs?

 

Similar to having Devers to pinch hit in s one run ball game. Do you use Devers in the seventh inning with a runner on 1st base with two outs or do you wait for a better opportunity later?

 

I really don't want to give up on our top prospects this year.

[Nick]

Plus we are not at full strength yet

 

 

Let's see what the division race looks like in July.

[notin]

Trying to come up with a package that does not include Mayer, Bleis or Drohan is just about impossible. I doubt larger packages that would have to include some combination of these gets it done....

Rafaela

Yorke

Romero

Anthony

E R-C

Walter

Mata

 

From BTV

 

Yorke (9.8), Anthony (6.5) and Mata (3.8) for Lucas Giolito (20.8)

 

Or

 

Romero (8.7) and Walter (7.8) for Jordan Montgomery (16.1)…

[Maxbialystock]

I think our best chance at passing someone ahead of us is BAL.

 

TOR might be second.

 

Maybe TEX imploses, despite all the top talent they added, recently.

 

NYY has a putrid offense and is almost always injury prone.

 

HOU is too good to realistically hope we can pass.

 

The Rays are in a class by themselves. For those who call us TB North, I wish!

 

 

The interesting thing about this discussion is that we are having it. The vast majority of talksoxers this season expected the Sox to have a losing record. I was definitely one of them.

 

But you gotta play the games, and statistically--which very few talksoxers, including you (I think), realize--there are no big gaps between/among teams, except the 2 or 3 at the top.

 

Try this on for size. Figure a target of 90 wins to get into the playoffs. That's a winning percentage of .556. The Sox are currently 24-20, winning percentage of .545. If they had won just one more game and were 25-19, they would be at .568, which would translate to 92 wins. As it is, .545 becomes 88 wins in a 162 game season.

 

Last year in the American League the wild card teams won 92 games (Toronto), 86 games (Tampa), and 90 games (Seattle).

 

In 2021 the AL wild card teams were Boston with 92 wins and NYY with 92 wins.