A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[MADSTORK]

Bloom does seem to want that farm pipeline moving. And honestly, he probably needs it moving soon if he em wants to keep his job.

 

BTV gives Verdugo a surplus value of $22.2mill. Turner a surplus value of $0.7mill. And Hernandez a surplus value of (-$2.1)mill.

 

If he needs that pipeline, Verdugo is a logical choice…

 

Betts deal looks better and better don’t it boys!

[moonslav59]

Bloom does seem to want that farm pipeline moving. And honestly, he probably needs it moving soon if he em wants to keep his job.

 

BTV gives Verdugo a surplus value of $22.2mill. Turner a surplus value of $0.7mill. And Hernandez a surplus value of (-$2.1)mill.

 

If he needs that pipeline, Verdugo is a logical choice…

 

I get that, but I do think JH knows Bloom drafted mostly HS players, and so is giving his farm pipeline longer than might be normal.

 

That being said, if Bloom did not add Whitlock and Wink to the "pipeline," he might certainly be out of a job, soon.

 

Bloom's prospects and ETAs according to SPs:

 

1. Mayer late '24

2. Bleis late '26

4. Yorke late '24

5. Drohan mid '24

6. Anthony '26

7. Romero '26

15. E R-C '26

16. Jordan 2025

18. Hickey 2025

19. Hamilton mid '24

20. Murphy mid '24 (saw action in '23)

21. Alcantara 2027

23. Meidroth 2025

25. Guerrero mid '24

26. Ravelo 2026

28. Kavadas 2025

29. C Coffey 2027

30. Rogers 2026

 

Added to Pipeline outside of draft or IFA

Graduated: Whitlock, Winckowsi, Wong, Ort, Kelly, Bernardino

10. Valdez '23

14. Abreu mid '24

Others: Denlinger, RHern, Gambrell, Ferguson, Rosier, de la Rosa

[moonslav59]

Games left before trade deadline:

 

3 NYY

4 @MN

3 @CWS

day off

3 MIA

3 @TOR

day off

3 TEX

3 OAK

All Star Break- 4 days

3 @CHC

3 @OAK

day off

3 NYM

day off

2 ATL

day off (7th day off in 18 days)

3 @SFG

3 @SEA (deadline before game 2)

 

[notin]

Betts deal looks better and better don’t it boys!

 

Once again you confuse me with Bloom. It shouldn’t have happened once. Not adding anything to your credibility…

[vjcsmoke]

I just read that Red Sox could be sellers at the deadline and that Paxton could be moved.

 

Sure, sell off the only good starting pitcher that we have? Makes sense when you're Bloom.

 

It doesn't look like this team will get out of .500 and the basement this season.

 

As long as we have crap front office, we'll continue to get crap results. This is a noncompetitive team right now. Zero chance at the postseason.

[moonslav59]

I just read that Red Sox could be sellers at the deadline and that Paxton could be moved.

 

Sure, sell off the only good starting pitcher that we have? Makes sense when you're Bloom.

 

It doesn't look like this team will get out of .500 and the basement this season.

 

As long as we have crap front office, we'll continue to get crap results. This is a noncompetitive team right now. Zero chance at the postseason.

 

If the team can't get above .500 why keep a SP'er who is a FA, after this year?

 

Is .490 over .475 better than a decent prospect?

[Dipre]

Once again you confuse me with Bloom. It shouldn’t have happened once. Not adding anything to your credibility…

 

Don't Feed The Troll.

[Bellhorn04]

If the team can't get above .500 why keep a SP'er who is a FA, after this year?

 

Is .490 over .475 better than a decent prospect?

 

You're absolutely right, but it's still a depressing situation.

[mvp 78]

You're absolutely right, but it's still a depressing situation.

 

Ben Win%:

12 .426

13 .599

14 .438

15 .440 (at date of DD hiring)

 

Bloom Win%:

20 .417

21 .546

22 .469

23 .501

 

Maybe this team can make a run as they get some players back, but losing Sale really hurt their chances. That's what happens when you build a rotation on older, injury prone guys though.

[Bellhorn04]

I still find it hard to swallow that we're $16 million under the first tax threshold. As if we couldn't have used a bit more help! And that is obviously on Henry.

 

WTF is John thinking?

[mvp 78]

I still find it hard to swallow that we're $16 million under the first tax threshold. As if we couldn't have used a bit more help! And that is obviously on Henry.

 

WTF is John thinking?

 

He wants to be competitive by not spending! Don't you get it?!? How could you blame him? He's still in the top half of the league! They can't go over every year! It's not the money spent, it's how it was spent! /s

[Dipre]

I still find it hard to swallow that we're $16 million under the first tax threshold. As if we couldn't have used a bit more help! And that is obviously on Henry.

 

WTF is John thinking?

 

There's an amount of money that goes towards miscellaneous expenditures that's not accounted for in our lux tax calculations.

[Bellhorn04]

There's an amount of money that goes towards miscellaneous expenditures that's not accounted for in our lux tax calculations.

 

That number is from Cot's Contracts and it does include all the player benefits etc. I checked it and it seems to be accurate. And I'm an accountant, man!

 

"Nothing has come to my attention to indicate that these numbers are not fairly stated in every material respect."

[Bellhorn04]

Whoops, now Cot's shows us at $11 mill under. My bad.

[Bellhorn04]

Paxton should be a small feel-good story for the Sox. Instead, he's probably #1 on the list of guys we can trade and get a decent prospect back for. Yippee!

 

Plus trading him will put another $1.3 million or so back in JH's pocket! To partially offset the lost ticket revenue when the team goes into post-deadline tank mode.

Edited June 16, 2023 by Bellhorn04

[notin]

Ben Win%:

12 .426

13 .599

14 .438

15 .440 (at date of DD hiring)

 

Bloom Win%:

20 .417

21 .546

22 .469

23 .501

 

Maybe this team can make a run as they get some players back, but losing Sale really hurt their chances. That's what happens when you build a rotation on older, injury prone guys though.

 

Sox are 34-35. I think their 2023 winning percentage is a bit off…

[Bellhorn04]

Sox are 34-35. I think their 2023 winning percentage is a bit off…

 

Accountants are off to a rough start this morning.

[notin]

Accountants are off to a rough start this morning.

 

We’ll just write it off as Friday Math…

[Dipre]

That number is from Cot's Contracts and it does include all the player benefits etc. I checked it and it seems to be accurate. And I'm an accountant, man!

 

"Nothing has come to my attention to indicate that these numbers are not fairly stated in every material respect."

 

I also work accounting, Mr. Accountant. By unfortunate happenstance by the way.

[Bellhorn04]

I also work accounting, Mr. Accountant. By unfortunate happenstance by the way.

 

Sorry man. I've been a bean-counter for almost half a century now. No exaggeration.

 

A guy I once worked with used to say "Being an accountant is a great job, except for the paperwork."

[Dipre]

Sorry man. I've been a bean-counter for almost half a century now. No exaggeration.

 

A guy I once worked with used to say "Being an accountant is a great job, except for the paperwork."

 

Well I'm a lawyer by trade, as you know. But I started executing projects for NPO's, and working on dismounting financial funds and had to get independent accreditation. I'm not a CPA, but I'm certified to present NPO and private sector projects under several financial normatives here. I don't hate it, but I like lawyering better.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sox are 34-35. I think their 2023 winning percentage is a bit off…

 

I view below .500 as a losing percentage

[mvp 78]

Sox are 34-35. I think their 2023 winning percentage is a bit off…

 

Sorry, I pulled the Pythagoreon W/L for Bloom.

 

20 .400

21 .568

22 .481

23 .493

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sorry, I pulled the Pythagoreon W/L for Bloom.

 

20 .400

21 .568

22 .481

23 .493

 

Clarify the Pythag: do those numbers mean that Bloom's Red Sox should be losers in 75% of his years in charge (so far)?

[mvp 78]

Clarify the Pythag: do those numbers mean that Bloom's Red Sox should be losers in 75% of his years in charge (so far)?

 

No, the original numbers were Pythag, which made them a .500 team this season.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No, the original numbers were Pythag, which made them a .500 team this season.

 

Ok, so does that mean -- as of today -- the Sox are underperforming where Pythag says they should be?

 

Baseball-ref still gives Boston 0.1% odds to win the World Series. There's still a chance... but what would have to happen? Answer: all the other 29 clubs get infected with a new jardemic... let's call it Pickleball.

[mvp 78]

Ok, so does that mean -- as of today -- the Sox are underperforming where Pythag says they should be?

 

Baseball-ref still gives Boston 0.1% odds to win the World Series. There's still a chance... but what would have to happen? Answer: all the other 29 clubs get infected with a new jardemic... let's call it Pickleball.

 

Yes. Underperforming by a whopping one win.

 

That's just the odds today. Sox could still make a run at the 3rd WC spot if things broke correctly. I don't think it's going to happen though. I also don't see a "fire sale" happening. Maybe they trade Paxton? Maybe they keep him and offer him the QO? Rosenthal suggested there was going to be a huge change to the Sox. We'll have to see. I thought last year was the year to do it. This year seems more like a waiting game. If guys aren't in your future, no harm in trading them though. Tickets are already sold, just bring up Hamilton/Abreu see if the Sox start sucking.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yes. Underperforming by a whopping one win.

 

That's just the odds today. Sox could still make a run at the 3rd WC spot if things broke correctly. I don't think it's going to happen though. I also don't see a "fire sale" happening. Maybe they trade Paxton? Maybe they keep him and offer him the QO? Rosenthal suggested there was going to be a huge change to the Sox. We'll have to see. I thought last year was the year to do it. This year seems more like a waiting game. If guys aren't in your future, no harm in trading them though. Tickets are already sold, just bring up Hamilton/Abreu see if the Sox start sucking.

 

What would qualify as a huge change during this season? If they fire Cora, the roster will still be the roster. If they have a fire sale, what trade bait can possibly return an actual prospect or young talent who can be part of a core going forward? Jansen? Verdugo? Devers???? (would it make any sense to deal Bello-Whitlock-Houck or Mayer-Rafaela-Drohan-Hickey-Anthony?)

[Bellhorn04]

I can't see them firing Cora this season. The consensus is he wasn't given a good team. Plus the players like him, which is a big part of why he got re-hired. Firing Cora would just make Bloom look even worse.

[Old Red]

I can't see them firing Cora this season. The consensus is he wasn't given a good team. Plus the players like him, which is a big part of why he got re-hired. Firing Cora would just make Bloom look even worse.

 

Players liking Cora hasn’t made a difference in the WL record, so no big deal on that plus JH rehired Cora not Bloom.