A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Hugh2]

It's fine to be an optimist, but promising that a guy is going to make up 172 points in OPS is ridiculous.

 

Don’t underestimate the power of one hot streak/cold steak

[Old Red]

JD sucked for 2 years. Nobody was clamoring to bring him back. Stop it.

Betts wasn't coming back because Henry wasn't going to pay him.

Complaining about Dombrowski draft picks?

Important clubhouse guys? That's why they brought Justin Turner here! What even is staying on message?!?

JD might have sucked last year, but 28 HR, and 99 RBI in 2021 i wouldn’t call that sucking.

[Maxbialystock]

Come on Moon, he is terrible. Yeah, letting go of Eavoldi, and please stop if anyone says Justin Turner is an improvement on super hot now JD. Verdugo and his War stats v. Betts, who has a greater impact on his team? The team is tough to watch, they are not entertaining. Kike is not very good, and was signed. The Story signing is/was and still is a disaster. JBJ? Yeah, trading away Hunter was an abject failure. Kluber, yes horrible. Should I applaud him that he has the greatest catching tandem of Wong-McGuire? Clap, clap. Constantly relying on Sale, let's squeeze the lemon as far we can. Enough. And Casas and Dalbec, the kids, they suck and playing more kids who suck, great. They unloaded a talented group and some important clubhouse guys. They suck. Period. Sale said it best "I suck." Well, he didn't this year so far, but the team does. Lastly, the Sox act like they are a budget-strapped franchise with a salary cap. They aren't.

 

Interesting. I notice you and I came here together when the Globe site folded, but you have stayed away from talksox a lot.

 

I think there's a lot of truth in that paragraph, but I also think you left out a key factor, John Henry. He fired DD in 2019--in my opinion because he was getting tired of spending big bucks, getting that one good year, 2018, and then seeing all that talent just collapse because the high-priced pitching collapsed.

 

But, yeah, this team is, relative to the 2018 and 2019 Sox under DD, a bunch of no names. Mookie, Bogey, JDM, Price, Kimbrel, Eovaldi, and maybe now even Sale again--all gone. As I pointed out on today's game thread, attendance so far this year is the worst in the John Henry era.

 

On the other hand, I like what moonslav has said about building a quality 40 man roster--as well as his belief that Bloom is about to spend (this year or this winter) more for the simple reason the franchise can afford to.

 

And this. I really liked Mookie and am even fascinated that he is now playing SS and succeeding. But his price tag--on top of what the Sox were already paying for JDM, Price, Sale, and Bogey--was just too much.

 

Mookie turns 31 in October and will still be owed $290M for 2024-2032. In his 5 1/3 seasons with the Sox Mookie's accumulated WAR was a little over 42 or an average WAR of freaking 8!!!!! No way, no how will he do anything remotely that good with the Dodgers and they will be paying him 10 times as much as the Sox paid him.

 

As for JDM, I'm glad he's having a good year with the Dodgers because I like him. He made a huge difference to the Sox lineup in 2018. But I was fine with letting him go. Same goes for Eovaldi. Same goes for Bogey to the Padres, especially given the kid who was just promoted to AA Portland.

Edited June 2, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[Bellhorn04]

Don’t underestimate the power of one hot streak/cold steak

 

Would you bet actual money straight up on Turner passing JD?

[Bellhorn04]

JD might have sucked last year, but 28 HR, and 99 RBI in 2021 i wouldn’t call that sucking.

 

Plus he had great numbers in the playoffs. mvp is off the rails on this one.

[Dipre]

Would you bet actual money straight up on Turner passing JD?

 

I'd bet actual money on the possibility of him passing JD in WAR though.

[Bellhorn04]

Interesting. I notice you and came here together when the Globe site folded, but you have stayed away from talksox a lot.

 

I think there's a lot of truth in that paragraph, but I also think you left out a key factor, John Henry. He fired DD in 2019--in my opinion because he was getting tired of spending big bucks, getting that one good year, 2018, and then seeing all that talent just collapse because the high-priced pitching collapsed.

 

One good year? Didn't they win the division in 2016 and 2017 too? That's not a good year anymore?

[Bellhorn04]

I'd bet actual money on the possibility of him passing JD in WAR though.

 

Bet on the possibility-now that's a new one.

[Dipre]

One good year? Didn't they win the division in 2016 and 2017 too? That's not a good year anymore?

 

Then I say people are entitled and they get mad.

[Dipre]

Bet on the possibility-now that's a new one.

 

You know what I meant.

[Bellhorn04]

You know what I meant.

 

Sorry about that Dipre.

 

As to your point, JD's fWAR is 0.9 and Turner's is 0.4. Turner's fielding and baserunning metrics stink. He's on pace for an fWAR of about 1.1. Just another mediocre stopgap.

[Maxbialystock]

I'd bet actual money on the possibility of him passing JD in WAR though.

 

Turner's WAR is currently +0.5 and JDM's is +0.9. So that looks like a bad bet. On the other hand, I do like Turner's versatility. He looked pretty good at 3b and is OK at 1b. Because of that, Cora can move Yoshida, who is the least good of our outfielders, to DH.

 

Right now, 1/3 into the season, the Dodgers are ranked 3d in MLB in runs scored and the Sox--who got rid of Mookie, Bogey, JDM, Renfroe, et al--are ranked 4th. And that's with both Duvall and Story on the IL.

[mvp 78]

JD might have sucked last year, but 28 HR, and 99 RBI in 2021 i wouldn’t call that sucking.

 

16 of those RBI were from 4/1 - 4/12.

 

He wasn't JD MARTINEZ from 4/13-10/1/21. He started off hot and was kinda crappy the rest of the way.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Pete A wrote this in the Globe today: "The Red Sox are not in a place to make a trade for a pitcher."

 

If LAST place isn't the place to make moves to improve, what is? I don't care about won-loss records or being stuck in the best division in the history of this year... last place is the worst place to be. It's the perfect time to deal prospects for pitching -- which by professional analysis is the weakest of positions at Boston's lower levels.

 

Alex Speier also introduced more Sox big league prospects in another article today. Reading the hype, Boston seems to have another half-a-dozen five toolers on the way. It's one thing to plug the Kikes of the world around the diamond while awaiting for Marcelo Mayers to mature. But there have to be promising young arms to target and stockpile... instead of more Joelys, who get to wear unbuttoned old ERod jerseys.

[Hugh2]

Would you bet actual money straight up on Turner passing JD?

 

No, but by no means would I be surprised if it happens.

[Bellhorn04]

16 of those RBI were from 4/1 - 4/12.

 

He wasn't JD MARTINEZ from 4/13-10/1/21. He started off hot and was kinda crappy the rest of the way.

 

Just ignore the postseason like it never happened, huh?

[Bellhorn04]

No, but by no means would I be surprised if it happens.

 

Nothing much surprises me in this game. It was moon's "book it" that got my dander up.

[Dipre]

Sorry about that Dipre.

 

As to your point, JD's fWAR is 0.9 and Turner's is 0.4. Turner's fielding and baserunning metrics stink. He's on pace for an fWAR of about 1.1. Just another mediocre stopgap.

 

I can take a joke. What I mean is, we should probably manage a friendly, perhaps even symbolic wager on the subject.

[Hugh2]

I don't know about his history, because I don't care to look it up and it may be irrelevant to this but more recently JDM has been a first-half performer. There was a .148 point drop in his OPS the second half of last season and .139 points the year before. Turner has historically been a much better second half guy.

 

Pass him in OPS? IDK, like I just said I'm not going to be money on it, but I would be willing to be the difference between their two OPS's will be significantly smaller than it is now by the end of the season.

[Bellhorn04]

I can take a joke. What I mean is, we should probably manage a friendly, perhaps even symbolic wager on the subject.

 

I'm in on a friendly bet on this, sure.

[mvp 78]

Just ignore the postseason like it never happened, huh?

 

The postseason is a CRAPSHOOT and SMALL SAMPLE SIZE!

 

Honestly, I just didn't remember what he did during it. I remember him tripping over 2b and being largely ineffective for most of 2021.

[Dipre]

I'm in on a friendly bet on this, sure.

 

We'll talk it out over PM. I'll hit you up in a bit. I'm into anything except working today.

[Randy Red Sox]

you are right that Turner is simply a 1 year stopgap. Problem is - a stop gap to who??? Or will Bloom just simply bring in another stop gap for next year??

Sorry about that Dipre.

 

As to your point, JD's fWAR is 0.9 and Turner's is 0.4. Turner's fielding and baserunning metrics stink. He's on pace for an fWAR of about 1.1. Just another mediocre stopgap.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know about his history, because I don't care to look it up and it may be irrelevant to this but more recently JDM has been a first-half performer. There was a .148 point drop in his OPS the second half of last season and .139 points the year before. Turner has historically been a much better second half guy.

 

Pass him in OPS? IDK, like I just said I'm not going to be money on it, but I would be willing to be the difference between their two OPS's will be significantly smaller than it is now by the end of the season.

 

Here's the tale of the tape:

 

JD

1st half 895

2nd half 864

Postseason (128 PAs) 987

 

Turner

1st half 806

2nd half 857

Postseason (368 PAs) 830

[Hugh2]

Here's the tale of the tape:

 

JD

1st half 895

2nd half 864

Postseason (128 PAs) 987

 

Turner

1st half 806

2nd half 857

Postseason (368 PAs) 830

 

Good stuff, now with JD the fall-off appears to be more pronounced than the last several years. Maybe thats a coincidence and this is a SSS....or it could just be that he wears out quicker and it's getting worse because he's getting up there with age.

 

If the later is true, he probably falls off a cliff in a month. If he doesn't.....good for him. Turner is fine though. He's certainly not hurting the team.

[moonslav59]

It's fine to be an optimist, but promising that a guy is going to make up 172 points in OPS is ridiculous.

 

I remember, not long ago, I suggested Turner might catch JD in a few weeks, and he ended up passing him that night.

 

I guess 2022 was ridiculous, then...

 

June 2 to the end of season:

 

Turner added .121

 

JD lost .186

[moonslav59]

Nothing much surprises me in this game. It was moon's "book it" that got my dander up.

 

That was over the top, for sure.

[Bellhorn04]

To be brutally frank about it, Turner's 0.4 fWAR makes him a below-average player. Maybe he'll get hot and change that. There's always hope.

[dannycater]

Eovaldi went 4-0 with a 0.96 ERA in May while averaging nearly 7 2/3 innings per start. He leads the Majors with 74 1/3 innings pitched and two complete games while also boasting a top-five ERA in the AL.

[Dipre]

Eovaldi went 4-0 with a 0.96 ERA in May while averaging nearly 7 2/3 innings per start. He leads the Majors with 74 1/3 innings pitched and two complete games while also boasting a top-five ERA in the AL.

 

The point being?