A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

Cot's has us under by 16.2 mill

Spotrac has us under by 23.5 mill

Roster Resource has us under by 11.2 mill, but they show Hosmer at 15.4 mill, which I'm 100% sure is an error

 

Cot's number looks right to me.

 

It looks like we could probably have afforded Nate & Kluber according to Spotrac.

 

Had we not added Mondesi or Joely, we could have under cots.

 

It was the years that scared the Sox away.

[moonslav59]

Sox are 11th in MLB payroll now and these were the orders Henry gave to Bloom. I place most of the blame on John Henry who I wish would sell the team. Bloom simply has to follow orders.

 

JH has a very long leash with me.

[moonslav59]

Bloom Doom...

 

Too bad we didn't become Tampa Bay North.

[dannycater]

John Henry can have the longest leach, but if you want to compete for another title anytime soon, you fire Bloom, and you do it yesterday...

[moonslav59]

John Henry can have the longest leach, but if you want to compete for another title anytime soon, you fire Bloom, and you do it yesterday...

 

That may happen.

 

Remember, it was Ben's foundation and trade fodder that helped DD get us to the promiseland.

 

Maybe Bloom will have someone say the same thing about his legacy.

 

Maybe Bloom stays and wins a ring, like Ben did.

 

If Bloom is doing what JH is asking, why should JH fire him?

[dannycater]

All valid points, moon, so it comes down to is Henry calling these shots?

[moonslav59]

All valid points, moon, so it comes down to is Henry calling these shots?

 

I can't bring myself to bash Henry, even if he stays cheap for a while longer, and the word "cheap" is debatable, especially once the Devers deal kicks in.

 

I'm not sure how much of a hand Henry or others had in many of the big deals, but most of the minor ones are likely all or mostly Bloom. The Sale, Bogey and Nate extensions and JD signings were JH's only major spendings that covered Bloom's first years. That's not chump change, but the production level was not as hoped.

 

I'm also not sure how much of a hand Bloom had in talking JH into signing Story, Yoshida or Devers, and maybe they had to convince him to go along with them.

 

I'm pretty sure Bloom was forced to trade Betts & Price and not replace even half of their salaries.

 

I think Bloom was told to go low budget, build the farm and 40 man roster depth up to respectability. They hoped we could stay semi-competitive after 2020, and so far we have been half of those two years.

 

IMO, and this is just speculation, JH heard the rumblings and knee-jerked the Story signing, while also thinking he could be a cheaper alternative to signing Bogey, later. I don;t think JH ever intended to pay Bogey much more than what Story got, and that's why it played out like it did.

 

Bloom spent a ton of money from Story to Devers (14 months,) but IMO not enough on SP'ing. I'm not pissed at that, because I haven't really wanted any major FA SP'er in a few years. I think trading for one makes more sense, but goes against the farm-building plan, bigtime.

 

That's why we are where we are, today.

 

I like the farm, but we won't know for a while how good it is.

I like the 40 man depth, and we are seeing results from it, this year.I like just about every Bloom winter signing and thought the Kluber signing was okay- just not enough. I can't blast a guy for doing something I was okay with, but he still is responsible for the failure (and successes.)

 

I really did not want to say, "Next year is our better shot," but it's looking like that, unless Story, Duvall, Sale, Schreiber all come back and give us a second half boost.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[dannycater]

Story's signing is the albatross now.

[dannycater]

Bloom is like a guy having a bad streak at the blackjack table...He is feeling good with 2 tens in his hand against a 12 and dealer draws 9...he likes his chances with 2 queens, deal draws to 20 for a push...then he just makes bad moves, he decides to f*** the odds and with a 17 v. a 10, he draws and goes over, while the other card underneath is a 3 and then the dealer busts out...that's Bloom.

[moonslav59]

Story's signing is the albatross now.

 

Now, yes, but we still have 4.5 years remaining.

 

That can be good or real bad.

[moonslav59]

Bloom is like a guy having a bad streak at the blackjack table...He is feeling good with 2 tens in his hand against a 12 and dealer draws 9...he likes his chances with 2 queens, deal draws to 20 for a push...then he just makes bad moves, he decides to f*** the odds and with a 17 v. a 10, he draws and goes over, while the other card underneath is a 3 and then the dealer busts out...that's Bloom.

 

That makes it sound like he's on a 10 hand losing streak.

 

How many of the last deals worth over $5M are bad?

 

Devers

Yoshida

Turner

Kluber

Duvall

Jansen

Martin

 

Go back beyond the winter...

Kike extension

Story

Wacha

Hill

Paxton w 2023 option

 

I see a mix or good, bad and meh, and when you look at $5-10M deals in MLB, what should b e the expectations on most of them?

 

(Note: maybe I missed someone. I did this quickly and off the top of my head.)

[Duran Is The Man]

I just want to make sure I have this right. You consider this Sox team to be unwatchable, but you seem to pin that observation on us watching freaking JDM swing and miss and swing and miss and swing and miss at sliders low and away. We watched him do that all last year and it got really old.

 

Maybe the Dodgers fixed him. Maybe he fixed himself. But, if he had stayed in Boston, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind he would still be swinging and missing sliders low and away.

 

how any pitcher -ever- would throw anything but a slider low and away to JD is beyond me. maybe NL pitchers haven't figured this out yet.

[Old Red]

JD 12 HR, 39 RBI, .278...Turner 6 HR, 22 RBI, .267....JD is also getting hotter.

 

JD 2-4 last night with his 13th HR, and 40th RBI

Mookie 4-4 2 HR and now has 15 HR, and 36 RBI

The best part it helped down the Yankees. Imagine that some on here were saying Mookie who like Dugy would ever really take his place, and one on here even called Mookie a Bum of a leadoff hitter.

Edited June 3, 2023 by Old Red

[Bellhorn04]

That makes it sound like he's on a 10 hand losing streak.

 

How many of the last deals worth over $5M are bad?

 

Devers

Yoshida

Turner

Kluber

Duvall

Jansen

Martin

 

Go back beyond the winter...

Kike extension

Story

Wacha

Hill

Paxton w 2023 option

 

I see a mix or good, bad and meh, and when you look at $5-10M deals in MLB, what should b e the expectations on most of them?

 

(Note: maybe I missed someone. I did this quickly and off the top of my head.)

 

It's not the individual moves, it's the bottom line results.

 

The most damning fact about the team Bloom has constructed is that we're allowing 4.96 runs a game. Our run prevention is horrible. Starting pitching is lousy and defense is worse.

[Bellhorn04]

how any pitcher -ever- would throw anything but a slider low and away to JD is beyond me. maybe NL pitchers haven't figured this out yet.

 

Incredibly dumb statement. Just for starters, in case you didn't notice, teams don't just play against their own league anymore.

[Bellhorn04]

If you actually think that all you have to do to get J D Martinez and his career .874 OPS out is throw him low and away sliders, you obviously don't have a clue about baseball.

[Bellhorn04]

JD 2-4 last night with his 13th HR, and 40th RBI

Mookie 4-4 2 HR and now has 15 HR, and 36 RBI

The best part it helped down the Yankees. Imagine that some on here were saying Mookie who like Dugy would ever really take his place, and one on here even called Mookie a Bum of a leadoff hitter.

 

Mookie looks like he's back in MVP mode.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Mookie looks like he's back in MVP mode.

 

WAR shows Dr. Who is the best player on his team (for the 8th year in his career), but there's no arguing with detractors that he's too short to be good for very much longer...

 

... because, we all know that most Red Sox fans don't really care about this season, and are more concerned about the budget and salary tax years from now.

[moonslav59]

It's not the individual moves, it's the bottom line results.

 

The most damning fact about the team Bloom has constructed is that we're allowing 4.96 runs a game. Our run prevention is horrible. Starting pitching is lousy and defense is worse.

 

I get that point, and it is valid and essentially is the bottom line.

 

It’s like 2021’s moves looked bad but we won, and Wacha, Hill and Strahm looked better than Richards and Perez but we lost.

 

This year is still pending.

[Old Red]

WAR shows Dr. Who is the best player on his team (for the 8th year in his career), but there's no arguing with detractors that he's too short to be good for very much longer...

 

... because, we all know that most Red Sox fans don't really care about this season, and are more concerned about the budget and salary tax years from now.

 

Imagine that some actually think too that the club is in better shape today since Bloom took over than before. Yes the farm system may be higher ranked, but that doesn’t guarantee success for the big league club, and that is what’s most important.

[Bellhorn04]

I get that point, and it is valid and essentially is the bottom line.

 

It’s like 2021’s moves looked bad but we won, and Wacha, Hill and Strahm looked better than Richards and Perez but we lost.

 

This year is still pending.

 

It's pending, but a metrics guy like Bloom would have to tell you that our mathematical chances of making the playoffs are slim. Do we really think we're going to pass two of the Jays, Yankees and Orioles? Forget about Texas or Houston, there's no chance there.

[Old Red]

It's pending, but a metrics guy like Bloom would have to tell you that our mathematical chances of making the playoffs are slim. Do we really think we're going to pass two of the Jays, Yankees and Orioles? Forget about Texas or Houston, there's no chance there.

 

Like I’ll repeat again that anything short of a postseason berth this year is a total failure.

[Old Red]

The Ref Man gets a contract extension through 2024 with a team option for 2025.

[Maxbialystock]

If you actually think that all you have to do to get J D Martinez and his career .874 OPS out is throw him low and away sliders, you obviously don't have a clue about baseball.

 

I'm certainly no expert, but I know what I saw last year: JDM was a sucker for low and away sliders.

 

In 2018, about which I raved in my earlier post, JDM's OPS was 1.031 his WAR was 6.7, and he batted in 130 runs. Last year his OPS was .790, his WAR was 1.1, and he batted in 62 runs. You seem to think last year, for which JDM was paid $20M, was just fine and dandy.

 

This year his OPS is back up to .951 and his WAR is 1.0 for 1/3 of a season. So, as I also pointed out, maybe he or his hitting coach fixed that tendency to chase low and away sliders.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm certainly no expert, but I know what I saw last year: JDM was a sucker for low and away sliders.

 

In 2018, about which I raved in my earlier post, JDM's OPS was 1.031 his WAR was 6.7, and he batted in 130 runs. Last year his OPS was .790, his WAR was 1.1, and he batted in 62 runs. You seem to think last year, for which JDM was paid $20M, was just fine and dandy.

 

This year his OPS is back up to .951 and his WAR is 1.0 for 1/3 of a season. So, as I also pointed out, maybe he or his hitting coach fixed that tendency to chase low and away sliders.

 

I guarantee you JD is well aware of his issues with low and away sliders and always has been. It's just a tough pitch because it's thrown hard and moves a lot, when it's thrown correctly.

[Bellhorn04]

The Ref Man gets a contract extension through 2024 with a team option for 2025.

 

Some good news.

[moonslav59]

Some good news.

 

Someone suggested he might be the odd man out when Story and Duvall return. Oooops!

[notin]

Like I’ll repeat again that anything short of a postseason berth this year is a total failure.

 

That’s your opinion…

[Randy Red Sox]

The Sox really have no top pitching prospects on the farm anywhere close to being mLB ready.

Imagine that some actually think too that the club is in better shape today since Bloom took over than before. Yes the farm system may be higher ranked, but that doesn’t guarantee success for the big league club, and that is what’s most important.

[Bellhorn04]

That’s your opinion…

 

I think it's the most common one in the Nation, though.