A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Maxbialystock]

Are we really incapable of adjusting for that?

 

Of course not. Besides, it's obvious from just the few WAR's + ERA's + IP's I provided that WAR is a combination of ERA and IP and goodness knows what else.

 

Winck ranks 6th on the Sox in IP with 32.1, first among pitchers in WAR with 1.8, fourth in ERA with 2.12, fourth in games played with 18, and a lowly sixteenth (16th !!!!!!!!) in K's per 9 innings.

 

Guess who ranks 2d on the Sox in K's per 9 innings? Rodriguez, with 11.3. That said, the leader in K's per 9 innings is Paxton with 12.2, 3d is Schreiber with 11.1, 4th is Sale with 10.6, 5th is Jansen with 10.3, 6th is Pivetta with 9.5, and 7th is Bello with 9.4.

[Bellhorn04]

If a reliever pitches about 60 innings you should multiply by 3. So a 3 WAR for a reliever is a monster season.

[mvp 78]

If he's hitting, they'll find a spot between 1B and DH.

 

1B/3B/RF/LF/DH. That should be where he would see time long term.

[moonslav59]

He's still carrying a 33% k rate. That's the limitation. That jumps to 40 when he gets the call.

 

I get that, but the high K rate was okay from 2020-2021, when his OPS was .819.

 

195 Ks in 497 ABs and 545 PAs.

 

I'm not saying he can or will ever return to that, but there is still some hope he can.

[mvp 78]

Really? My take is that Duvall's return takes away the DH position, period. So Dalbec becomes one of three 1B aspirants.

 

Duran would be the 4th OFer.

[moonslav59]

Are we really incapable of adjusting for that?

 

I'm not sure. He's had a +1.0 fWAR from 2021-2022, but that was not considered very good, despite that placing 73rd among all RP'ers with 80+ IP in those 2 years.

[Dipre]

If a reliever pitches about 60 innings you should multiply by 3. So a 3 WAR for a reliever is a monster season.

 

WAR undervalues RP by design.

[Dipre]

On fWAR for RP:

 

While the quality of their work is very high, the quantity is low, which limits their total value. It’s nearly impossible to rack up huge win values while facing less than 300 batters per season. Yes, each of those batters faced are more critical to a win than a regular batter faced, but this is accounted for in WAR.

 

The average Leverage Index of a closer is about 1.8, meaning that each plate appearance is about 80 percent more important than an average PA. We give the closer credit for half of that, based on the principle of chaining. Because relief pitchers are mostly fungible, and can move from one role to another if needed, replacing a closer is not the same process as replacing a starter or a position player. If a team’s closer gets hurt, they do not then call up a replacement level reliever from the minors and use him to close out games.

 

Instead, that replacement level reliever who gets called up from Triple-A becomes the mop-up guy, and everyone gets promoted one slot; the setup guy moves into the closer role, the middle reliever becomes the setup guy, so on and so forth. The high leverage innings are handed to the remaining best pitchers in the bullpen, not the guy replacing the lost relief ace.

 

Because of this, it does not make sense to give a reliever full value for the credit of his leverage index. That leverage does not belong to him, nor does it go with him when he goes away. Remember, this is Wins Above Replacement, and the guy who replaces a closer is generally a pretty good pitcher. We want to measure the marginal win of a player over what the team would lose if they did not have him, and in the case of relief pitchers, the replacement level is very high.

[moonslav59]

Really? My take is that Duvall's return takes away the DH position, period. So Dalbec becomes one of three 1B aspirants.

 

I'm not so sure.

 

To me...

 

Plan A: Duvall plays CF and Duran or Ref is OF4

 

Plan B: Duvall plays LF, Yoshida DH and Turner plays 1B v LHPs and vs RHPs, Casas plays 1B v RHps, Turner DHs, Yoshida plays LF and Duval/Duran plays CF.

 

Plan C: When Story returns, Kike may crowd the OF situation, assuming he is not still hitting .650.

 

Someone will likely be traded, and Dalbec is atop the list. Kike may be second. Arroyo or Duvall are also possible trade candidates.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If a reliever pitches about 60 innings you should multiply by 3. So a 3 WAR for a reliever is a monster season.

 

According to a stathead search on bb-ref, the best MLB reliever of this century was Jonathan Papelbon with a 5.0 WAR in 2006.

 

Rivera had the 5th, 6th, 10th and 14th best seasons (all between 3.9-4.3 WAR).

 

The next best Red Sox reliever was Kimbrel 3.6 in '17, and then this grouping at 3.5: Koji in '13, Pap in '09, Foulke in '04, Lowe in '00. Boston missed the playoffs in '00 and '06.

[Maxbialystock]

Duran would be the 4th OFer.

 

When Duvall returns, I agree four good hitting outfielders: Yoshida (OPS .875), Duran (OPS .809), Duvall (1.544), and Verdugo (.825). However, of those four, Yoshida is a distant 4th (DWAR -0.7) as a fielder. And let's not forget that both Refsnyder (OPS .792) and Tapia (OPS .726) are also better fielders than Yoshida.

 

So to me there is no way, no how Dalbec gets to DH because that is going to be reserved for Yoshida--good bat, so-so glove.

 

Back to you.

[moonslav59]

When Duvall returns, I agree four good hitting outfielders: Yoshida (OPS .875), Duran (OPS .809), Duvall (1.544), and Verdugo (.825). However, of those four, Yoshida is a distant 4th (DWAR -0.7) as a fielder. And let's not forget that both Refsnyder (OPS .792) and Tapia (OPS .726) are also better fielders than Yoshida.

 

So to me there is no way, no how Dalbec gets to DH because that is going to be reserved for Yoshida--good bat, so-so glove.

 

Back to you.

 

Yoshida to DH basically dooms Casas to the bench, AAA or a platoon at 1B with Turner with Turner being benched vs RHPs. I seriously doubt that happens, especially since Casas has been doing much better in May than April.

 

I think Duran might be the "odd man out," and shifting players around would not work to platoon Casas and Duran, since both bat lefty.

 

We are not going to platoon Turner, Yoshida and most likely not Duvall, either, especially since the RHB'ers are the short end of a platoon.

 

It seems CF, LF, DH and 1B are the positions of interest...

 

Red appear to be FT batters and not platoon material

 

RHBs

Duvall is best in LF with CF as an option (some might prefer he platoons. Not me, for now.)

Turner is best at 1B or 3B with DH an option

Refsnyder is a platoon player with the best wRC+ of any Sox player from 2022-2023, including Devers, Bogey, JD and Yoshida

 

LHBs

Yoshida is best at DH with LF an option

Casas is a 1B only player (Turner is better at 3B, and Casas fields 1B well.)

Duran is playing very good D in CF, but he has been slumping or returning to his norm, whichever you prefer to call it.

Tapia looks like the odd man out and has no options. (We could demote Duran to keep him around longer.)

 

As you can see, I have 3 guys (Yoshida, Turner & Duvall) in red for 4 positions. Shifting players around can allow one from Casas, Duran and Refsnyder to play everyday, so it might look like this:

 

vs RHP

CF Duran

LF Duvall

1B Turner

DH Yoshida

or

CF Duvall

LF Yoshida

1B Casas

DH Turner

 

 

vs LHPs

CF Duvall

LF Refsnyder

1B Turner

DH Yoshida

 

I could see us making a trade to make this choice easier, and when Story returns, we'll have a new set of choices to make with kike now added to the CF mix as a RHB, assuming he is hitting better.

 

[mvp 78]

When Duvall returns, I agree four good hitting outfielders: Yoshida (OPS .875), Duran (OPS .809), Duvall (1.544), and Verdugo (.825). However, of those four, Yoshida is a distant 4th (DWAR -0.7) as a fielder. And let's not forget that both Refsnyder (OPS .792) and Tapia (OPS .726) are also better fielders than Yoshida.

 

So to me there is no way, no how Dalbec gets to DH because that is going to be reserved for Yoshida--good bat, so-so glove.

 

Back to you.

 

I wouldn't send Dalbec east on the Pike. When Duvall comes back, Duran goes back to being the 4th OFer. Maybe Masa gets more DH opportunities and Turner plays more 1B? Maybe?

[moonslav59]

According to a stathead search on bb-ref, the best MLB reliever of this century was Jonathan Papelbon with a 5.0 WAR in 2006.

 

Rivera had the 5th, 6th, 10th and 14th best seasons (all between 3.9-4.3 WAR).

 

The next best Red Sox reliever was Kimbrel 3.6 in '17, and then this grouping at 3.5: Koji in '13, Pap in '09, Foulke in '04, Lowe in '00. Boston missed the playoffs in '00 and '06.

 

Good stuff.

 

"Best season" might have been good to add to your post.

 

Since IP is a big function of fWAR, I will include IP along with fWAR for the best RP'ers since 2000 (all seasons):

 

29.2/907 Mo

22.7/785 Jansen

20.8/660 Chapman

20.1/708 Kimbrel

19.8/752 Nathan

19.2/710 Papelbon

16.3/976 F Rod

16.2/650 Wagner

15.7/762 Robertson

15.5/762 Soria

15.3/686 Betancourt

13.4/754 Dotel

13.4/464 Liam H

 

Notables with lower IP

12.2/378 E Diaz

11.9/378 Gagne

11.4/451 Doolittle

11.2/392 Betances

 

 

Koji's season was remarkable, because he wasn't the closer, all year.

 

[Bellhorn04]

WAR undervalues RP by design.

 

I don't really get undervaluing from what you quoted in your following post. It seems like they're trying to equalize things as much as possible.

[moonslav59]

I don't really get undervaluing from what you quoted in your following post. It seems like they're trying to equalize things as much as possible.

 

They could adjust upwards even further, but I'm not sure it would be more accurate or fair.

 

IMO, SP'ers who go 150-210 IP vs RP'ers who go 50-80 should be worth much more, even if they don't pitch as many high leverage innings as many RP'ers do.

 

When I look at RP'er WAR, I always use how they compare to ther RP'ers as a guide to determine how good they are.

 

Like Joely is ranked 72nd among all RP'ers with 80+ IP from '21-'22. That's pretty good, despite having just a +1.0 fWAR in those 2 years, combined.

 

(BTW, I used the same methodology defending the Barnes extension, and how did that work out? LOL!)

[Bellhorn04]

They could adjust upwards even further, but I'm not sure it would be more accurate or fair.

 

IMO, SP'ers who go 150-210 IP vs RP'ers who go 50-80 should be worth much more, even if they don't pitch as many high leverage innings as many RP'ers do.

 

When I look at RP'er WAR, I always use how they compare to ther RP'ers as a guide to determine how good they are.

 

Like Joely is ranked 72nd among all RP'ers with 80+ IP from '21-'22. That's pretty good, despite having just a +1.0 fWAR in those 2 years, combined.

 

(BTW, I used the same methodology defending the Barnes extension, and how did that work out? LOL!)

 

OTOH, Joely's total bWAR for 21-22 was -.5. I'm guessing that doesn't rank him quite as high.

 

As for the fWAR vs. bWAR for pitchers debate, I look at Rick Porcello's 2020 season as a somewhat hilarious example of how wonky the numbers can be. His actual ERA in 59 innings was 5.64. His FIP was 3.33. His fWAR was a terrific 1.6 for 1/3 of a season. But it seemed that no one was interested in signing him for 2021.

[Duran Is The Man]

WAR is largely a function of IP.

 

Wink and Craw have more IP than most RP'ers, so far.

 

Martin and Scheiber have been buttah.

 

 

this is why, for relievers, you use the "eye test". and last night, my eyes told me that Joely was boiled crap.

[moonslav59]

OTOH, Joely's total bWAR for 21-22 was -.5. I'm guessing that doesn't rank him quite as high.

 

As for the fWAR vs. bWAR for pitchers debate, I look at Rick Porcello's 2020 season as a somewhat hilarious example of how wonky the numbers can be. His actual ERA in 59 innings was 5.64. His FIP was 3.33. His fWAR was a terrific 1.6 for 1/3 of a season. But it seemed that no one was interested in signing him for 2021.

 

Indeed, B-R surely does not have him ranked near 72nd.

 

I should just stay out of these single game manager decisions. To me, too much is unknown to the casual or even serious fan. Too many moving parts.

[moonslav59]

this is why, for relievers, you use the "eye test". and last night, my eyes told me that Joely was boiled crap.

 

Nobody disputes that. The debate is about what we expected before the call was made for Joely.

 

Some of us obviously felt he was a bum all along. Some were not so sure.

 

BTW, some felt Crawink were bums, too.

 

[Dipre]

I don't really get undervaluing from what you quoted in your following post. It seems like they're trying to equalize things as much as possible.

 

Becuse it undervalues inning leverage, again, by design. If it took it 100% into account, reliever WAR would be higher. It controls for it, not account for it.

[moonslav59]

Becuse it undervalues inning leverage, again, by design. If it took it 100% into account, reliever WAR would be higher. It controls for it, not account for it.

 

You mean high leverage innings?

 

2022 Red Sox High Leverage PAs Against/ Total PAs Against:

 

123/773 Pivetta

119/257 Schreiber

87/460 Nate

84/515 Wacha

80/247 Houck

76/193 Strahm

70/311 Whitlock

67/268 Bello

64/176 Barnes

62/171 Diekman

58/263 Brasier

52/111 Robles

52/526 Hill

 

Certainly, as a percentage, RP'er have a much higher "leverage" influence, but starters still have a lot, too.

 

Look at Low leverage PAs

297 Pivetta

222 Hill

179 Davis

166 Wacha

152 Sawamura

137 Wink

136 Brasier

132 Nate

131 Danish

126 Crawford

108 Whitlock

100 Houck

 

I'm not sure how WAR weighs these factors, or if the adjust "enough," but I'm not sure the current set up is all that inaccurate.

 

[Hugh2]

Many were for signing Andrus, and you never know how things would work out, but at the time it would have been worth a try.

 

I was one of those people pushing for Andrus, who is having a worse season than Hernandez is right now. Someone pointed out a long time ago that Hernandez hits much better when he plays 2nd base. I personally don't believe the hoopla that your defensive position is going to influence your bat this much.....but at this point I'm willing to give it a try. Reyes is a better defender anyways, it's just dumb to play Kike at SS.

[Dipre]

You mean high leverage innings?

 

2022 Red Sox High Leverage PAs Against/ Total PAs Against:

 

123/773 Pivetta

119/257 Schreiber

87/460 Nate

84/515 Wacha

80/247 Houck

76/193 Strahm

70/311 Whitlock

67/268 Bello

64/176 Barnes

62/171 Diekman

58/263 Brasier

52/111 Robles

52/526 Hill

 

Certainly, as a percentage, RP'er have a much higher "leverage" influence, but starters still have a lot, too.

 

Look at Low leverage PAs

297 Pivetta

222 Hill

179 Davis

166 Wacha

152 Sawamura

137 Wink

136 Brasier

132 Nate

131 Danish

126 Crawford

108 Whitlock

100 Houck

 

I'm not sure how WAR weighs these factors, or if the adjust "enough," but I'm not sure the current set up is all that inaccurate.

 

 

I think it logical to accept that volume of IP is as important as quality of IP in the grand scheme of things. I don't see any relievers making Scherzer money.

[Bellhorn04]

I think it logical to accept that volume of IP is as important as quality of IP in the grand scheme of things. I don't see any relievers making Scherzer money.

 

Right. But the highest-paid closer makes about 50% of the highest paid starter - strictly in AAV, that is. So there's about a 50% adjustment for leverage LOL.

[mvp 78]

I was one of those people pushing for Andrus, who is having a worse season than Hernandez is right now. Someone pointed out a long time ago that Hernandez hits much better when he plays 2nd base. I personally don't believe the hoopla that your defensive position is going to influence your bat this much.....but at this point I'm willing to give it a try. Reyes is a better defender anyways, it's just dumb to play Kike at SS.

 

I wouldn't mind Kiké so much if he could just not throw the ball away every other inning. Maybe 2B helps with that? He's been bad defensively everywhere so far this season.

[mvp 78]

Mariano Rivera has less career fWAR than Tony Fernandez. Therefore, he was less valuable than Tony Fernandez and should not be in the HOF.

[Dipre]

Mariano Rivera has less career fWAR than Tony Fernandez. Therefore, he was less valuable than Tony Fernandez and should not be in the HOF.

 

Is a position player not inherently more valuable than a relief pitcher? I think so.

[mvp 78]

Is a position player not inherently more valuable than a relief pitcher? I think so.

 

Not necessarily. Than a lunchpail middle reliever? Sure. Than a late inning guy that can possibly get you multiple innings? It's not so clear cut.

[moonslav59]

I think it logical to accept that volume of IP is as important as quality of IP in the grand scheme of things. I don't see any relievers making Scherzer money.

 

I do, too, but by how much, and don't they adjust, already?