A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure the two players are comparable. Correa is younger and better defensively. Bogey should be making much less than Correa.

 

I agree. The age and the D differential at a key defensive position makes them a tough comp.

 

Bogey's D did improve, while Correa's decline, in 2022. What were their no shift defensive numbers?

[Hugh2]

I'm not sure the two players are comparable. Correa is younger and better defensively. Bogey should be making much less than Correa.

 

Again I'm not saying they're a comp, but they're 100% tied into each other. Both are SS on the market this year. For the reasons YOU suggested I'm saying Correa will get paid more, but he's going to set the market. Yes, Correa is going to get paid much more, but it will still be indicative of what Bogaerts may get.

 

If COrrea only gets $225, then Bogaerts is probably looking at a payday in the 15-180 range. If Correa gets 300, Bogaerts is probably looking at a payday in the 225 range. Much less I agree, I feel if I was comparing them I'd be saying they get the same money. Not comparing them, but they're connected and tied to one another. The reverse is also true.

 

If Bogaerts signs for 200 million today, Correas camp is going to say "look what he got" "I'm younger and better I want 300"

[Hugh2]

I hope that makes sense.

[mvp 78]

I hope that makes sense.

 

I get it. They are part of the same FA class. I just thing the top tier guys tend to make a premium that doesn't trickle down to the other tiers. I think Correa and Turner just have certain qualities that keep them much more valuable than Bogey. Maybe someone overpays for Xander? If I'm the Sox, I figure out what I want to pay and don't go over it. It's just how they have to manage their business.

 

200/7 is about as high as I could go for Bogey due to age and defensive issues plus drop in power last season.

[moonslav59]

I get it. They are part of the same FA class. I just thing the top tier guys tend to make a premium that doesn't trickle down to the other tiers. I think Correa and Turner just have certain qualities that keep them much more valuable than Bogey. Maybe someone overpays for Xander? If I'm the Sox, I figure out what I want to pay and don't go over it. It's just how they have to manage their business.

 

200/7 is about as high as I could go for Bogey due to age and defensive issues plus drop in power last season.

 

I'm not sure I'd go higher than $160-165/6 for Bogey- maybe $175/7, but with Mayer in the wings, we'd be paying Bogey SS money to play where? LF? 3B (no Devers in 2024?)

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure I'd go higher than $160-165/6 for Bogey- maybe $175/7, but with Mayer in the wings, we'd be paying Bogey SS money to play where? LF? 3B (no Devers in 2024?)

 

I'm all for Xander moving to LF.

[moonslav59]

I'm all for Xander moving to LF.

 

Since I don't view X as a great defensive SS, I'm not sure what my problem is, but I'm just not sure his bat, alone is worth $200M/7- the contract you suggest as top end.

[notin]

I'm all for Xander moving to LF.

 

Why not just sign Nimmo, who is his offensive equal, has OF experience, looks to be significantly cheaper, probably accepts fewer years, and is roughly the same age?

 

 

The only advantage Bogaerts has is he won’t cost Boston draft picks or IFA capital…

[mvp 78]

Since I don't view X as a great defensive SS, I'm not sure what my problem is, but I'm just not sure his bat, alone is worth $200M/7- the contract you suggest as top end.

 

I think he'd be a really good defensive OFer.

[mvp 78]

Why not just sign Nimmo, who is his offensive equal, has OF experience, looks to be significantly cheaper, probably accepts fewer years, and is roughly the same age?

 

 

The only advantage Bogaerts has is he won’t cost Boston draft picks or IFA capital…

 

I like Bogaerts. I think the Red Sox need to retain their own players. Nimmo is going to cost a lot more than people are suggesting on here.

[moonslav59]

I like Bogaerts. I think the Red Sox need to retain their own players. Nimmo is going to cost a lot more than people are suggesting on here.

 

Plus the loss of 2 draft picks. I seriously doubt we make a strong push for him.

[notin]

I like Bogaerts. I think the Red Sox need to retain their own players. Nimmo is going to cost a lot more than people are suggesting on here.

 

Bogaerts might cost more as well.

 

MLBTR predicted 7 yrs $189mill ($27mill AAV) for Bogaerts and 5 yrs $110mill ($22mill AAV) for Nimmo.

 

Given that the Sox could use either one, their roughly equal offensively and one is projected for fewer years at a lower AAV, I do think it’s not a bad idea to replace Bogaerts with Nimmo. Especially since Kike allows for ease of adjusting the lineup…

[notin]

Plus the loss of 2 draft picks. I seriously doubt we make a strong push for him.

 

Unfortunately I do think this will be a bigger factor than I prefer it being…

[moonslav59]

Unfortunately I do think this will be a bigger factor than I prefer it being…

 

With Kike's control ending after this year, and Mayer maybe ready by 2024, it does seem like OF is a much larger longer term need, despite Rafaela's pending readiness.

[harmony]

Won't open. Why not tell us the suggested trade?

The Rays reportedly are in "advanced trade negotiations" with unidentified teams:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/rays-notes-40-man-roster-trades-choi-kiermaier.html

[notin]

The Rays reportedly are in "advanced trade negotiations" with unidentified teams:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/rays-notes-40-man-roster-trades-choi-kiermaier.html

 

Hamilton for Kittredge. Book it…

[moonslav59]

Tuesday Nov 15th: Rule 5 eligible players must be added to the 40 man roster of be at risk of being selected in the draft.

 

Nov 18: non-tender deadline

 

Dec 7th: Rule 5 Draft & Winter Meetings begin

[moonslav59]

My prediction for Rule 5 Protection Day:

 

We add: Rafaela, Walter, Ward to get us to 40.

 

DFA Chang and add Murphy

DFA C Hamilton and add W. Gonzalez

DFA Jake Reed (maybe Kaleb Ort) and add W Abreu

 

Take our chances and do not protect: Paulino (too far away), Politi & Wallace (fingers crossed)

 

I don't think we have to worry about: Fernandez, Bonaci, Scott, Feltman, Koss, Hamilton, Jimenez, V. Santos, Cottam or Granberg.

[mvp 78]

My prediction for Rule 5 Protection Day:

 

We add: Rafaela, Walter, Ward to get us to 40.

 

DFA Chang and add Murphy

DFA C Hamilton and add W. Gonzalez

DFA Jake Reed (maybe Kaleb Ort) and add W Abreu

 

Take our chances and do not protect: Paulino (too far away), Politi & Wallace (fingers crossed)

 

I don't think we have to worry about: Fernandez, Bonaci, Scott, Feltman, Koss, Hamilton, Jimenez, V. Santos, Cottam or Granberg.

 

I don't see them protecting Abreu. He was ok in Portland but absolutely pathetic in the AFL.

 

Abreu, meanwhile, batted just .167/.275/.204 with two doubles and 10 RBIs in 17 games.

 

If they think he has a shot of playing in BOS this year, maybe they find a spot? They did make room for Rossario and Potts for way too long.

[moonslav59]

I don't see them protecting Abreu. He was ok in Portland but absolutely pathetic in the AFL.

 

Abreu, meanwhile, batted just .167/.275/.204 with two doubles and 10 RBIs in 17 games.

 

If they think he has a shot of playing in BOS this year, maybe they find a spot? They did make room for Rossario and Potts for way too long.

 

The AFL numbers are a pretty small sample size, and a .774 OPS seems a bit better than okay in Portland. The larger sample size of the full 2022 season in AA shows a player worthy of protecting.

 

.834 OPS in 579 PAs

 

He was second in all of the minor leagues in BBs at 114.

 

He's no speed demon, but he did steal 31 bases with only 3 CS.

 

While 48 XBJs is not bad, his most important asset may be his OBP. It was .399, this season, .363 last season (A+) and .355 in A ball in 2019.

 

With so little OD depth on the farm, I view him right behind Rafaela and above Duran as our OF farm depth for 2023.

 

I think we protect him.

[mvp 78]

I think that says more about the state of the system than anything else. I see more value in him on the 40 man than Reed or Ort.

[moonslav59]

I think that says more about the state of the system than anything else. I see more value in him on the 40 man than Reed or Ort.

 

I think the team needs to return to the philosophy of higher OBP and a newer one on adding more speed or heads up baserunners. I think Abreu fits that mold, and yes, he shows better hope than Reed or Ort. Those type are everywhere- more like them will be released, today as other teams add Rule 5'ers to their 40 man rosters.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think the team needs to return to the philosophy of higher OBP and a newer one on adding more speed or heads up baserunners. I think Abreu fits that mold, and yes, he shows better hope than Reed or Ort. Those type are everywhere- more like them will be released, today as other teams add Rule 5'ers to their 40 man rosters.

 

My prediction is that any Rule 5 guy that Bloom adds will be a reliever. Building bullpen depth with high velo arms is the easiest and cheapest way back to respectability.

 

Mid-market spenders like Boston needn't splurge on relief specialists like the Mets, Padres and Astros recently did. There are plenty of unharnessed minor leaguers and bounce-back MLB candidates to collect.

[moonslav59]

My prediction is that any Rule 5 guy that Bloom adds will be a reliever. Building bullpen depth with high velo arms is the easiest and cheapest way back to respectability.

 

Mid-market spenders like Boston needn't splurge on relief specialists like the Mets, Padres and Astros recently did. There are plenty of unharnessed minor leaguers and bounce-back MLB candidates to collect.

 

The draft is Dec 7th. I'm hopeful, but it is rare that a Rule 5 pick is significant, and maybe we used all our luck up on the Whitlock selection.

[notin]

My prediction is that any Rule 5 guy that Bloom adds will be a reliever. Building bullpen depth with high velo arms is the easiest and cheapest way back to respectability.

 

Mid-market spenders like Boston needn't splurge on relief specialists like the Mets, Padres and Astros recently did. There are plenty of unharnessed minor leaguers and bounce-back MLB candidates to collect.

 

 

Those high velocity arms need to throw strikes.

 

The Sox have a trio of speed demons on the cusp of MLB in Darwinzon, German and Wallace, but finding the strike zone has been an occasional issue for all of them…

[mvp 78]

The draft is Dec 7th. I'm hopeful, but it is rare that a Rule 5 pick is significant, and maybe we used all our luck up on the Whitlock selection.

 

Even just to get a bullpen regular or utility player would be an absolute win. You don't have to come away with Whitlock.

[moonslav59]

Even just to get a bullpen regular or utility player would be an absolute win. You don't have to come away with Whitlock.

 

We might have a better chance picking up a useful RP'er by claiming one DFA'd, today.

[mvp 78]

We might have a better chance picking up a useful RP'er by claiming one DFA'd, today.

 

Hard to say.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Those high velocity arms need to throw strikes.

 

The Sox have a trio of speed demons on the cusp of MLB in Darwinzon, German and Wallace, but finding the strike zone has been an occasional issue for all of them…

 

You mean something like what the Rays' Evan Reifert did in the Arizona Fall League? He faced 40 batters and struck out 25.

Is there such a thing as a small sample when it comes to throwing strikes?

 

Reifert isn't even ranked among Tampa's top 30 prospects.

[mvp 78]

@SPChrisHatfield

Today at 6pm is the deadline to add players to the 40-man roster to protect them from selection in the Rule 5 Draft. See below for my thoughts. I think they'll protect the top 4, question is whether they add any of the next 4. My guess is Rafaela, Walter, Ward, Murphy, Gonzalez.

 

This would leave Abreu unprotected.