A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Old Red]

Ranking the farm systems is just educated guesswork. One " expert's " opinion is as good as another's. Pick whichever one suits you. None of it matters until we see some results at Fenway.

 

Exactly. Prospect, or suspect only matters if they produce in a Red Sox uniform, or is traded for someone who does. I think I’ve heard that somewhere before.

[Hugh2]

Three points about Keith Laws rankings:

 

1. This is one man, who hasn’t seen the vast majority of the guys he ranks, opinion.

 

2. A recent trend we’ve seen in baseball is how much higher value is placed on prospects in the upper minors. The Sox strength appears to be in A ball (Mayer, Bleis, Romero)

 

3. This is probably the most important one. Keith Law is very biased. He’s not a bad guy, I’ve heard him interviewed many times, he comes on the Soxprospects show sometimes but he is biased. He’s a lifelong New Yorker and maybe that’s a coincidence but he always has the Sox ranked lower than everyone else. It’s like clockwork. You can always count on Law to discount the Sox system compared to everyone else. It’s Laws law.

[Bellhorn04]

But even then there was no guarantee. Those same Dodgers traded for Trea Turner with that same extension opportunity. But Turner is in Philly…

 

Right, but that seems to have been part of a plan by the Dodgers to get their payroll back down.

[Hugh2]

And the Dodgers didn't trade for 12 years of Betts... they just decided the day before the 2020 games began that he must be good enough to extend for the next dozen seasons.

 

I agree with Notin here, otherwise we have to compare Betts to Wong/Verdugo and whatever 30.5 million gets you. Which is arbitrary, I could fudge the numbers and chose the contracts that give me negative WAR or 7 WAR. Realistically, it make sense to evaluate the trade through the lens that you traded one year of Betts, because that’s true, and whether or not LA traded for him knowing they would extend him probably doesn’t change the fact that he wasn’t signing an extension here.

[Hugh2]

Right, but that seems to have been part of a plan by the Dodgers to get their payroll back down.

 

I also think one can’t discount the timing of Betts extension. $365 million looked a lot more enticing during a time when there was so much certainty in the world and we didn’t even know if there would be a season.

[moonslav59]

Not sure what their rank was last year, but the Sox farm coming in at #23 doesn't seem like much of an improvement given that this is year 4 of Bloom and he was basically brought in to be the opposite of Dombrowksi. Any upward movement in rankings likely came from being in position to draft Mayer who is already a top 10 prospect. How many years does Bloom get to complete his rebuild?

 

How long do you think?

 

It usually takes 4-6 years before drafted players make an impact- maybe 3, if you draft some polished college guys.

 

We just graduated some of DD's guys after a 5 year stretch of getting just Houck:

 

Bello

Crawford

Duran

Dalbec

 

We've seen some of Bloom's guys like...

 

Whitlock

Wink

Wong

Kelly

 

The next guys coming up are a mix of DD and Bloom guys...

 

Mata

Walter

Murphy

Mayer

Rafaela

Valdez

Ort

Yorke

Lugo

Kavadas...

[moonslav59]

I agree with Notin here, otherwise we have to compare Betts to Wong/Verdugo and whatever 30.5 million gets you. Which is arbitrary, I could fudge the numbers and chose the contracts that give me negative WAR or 7 WAR. Realistically, it make sense to evaluate the trade through the lens that you traded one year of Betts, because that’s true, and whether or not LA traded for him knowing they would extend him probably doesn’t change the fact that he wasn’t signing an extension here.

 

Exactly. Counting it like a 12 get by the Dodgers has merit, but that does not mean we gave up 12 years of Betts.

 

Also, how do we dump half-Price or full-Price, if we kept Betts?

 

Casas, Bello & Price for Downs?

 

Bogey and 3/4 Price for Downs and Wong?

 

JD & Bogey for Verdugo, Downs & Wong?

 

It's easy to just say, "Botch!" and anyone who brings up Price is just adding spin, but was an alternative plan?

 

(I know, I know: "JH should have spent more money.")

[moonslav59]

DHern cleared waivers by the O's and will be in their minors.

 

The Dodgers have said they will not make trades to get under the tax line. (They seem to be about $5M over, now.)

 

[Bobe2]

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/02/why-is-ryan-brasier-still-on-red-sox-roster-chaim-bloom-explains.html

Bloom explains why he kept Brasier

[moonslav59]

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/02/why-is-ryan-brasier-still-on-red-sox-roster-chaim-bloom-explains.html

Bloom explains why he kept Brasier

 

Wow! I now love Brasier and wonder if he should be our closer.

[notin]

Three points about Keith Laws rankings:

 

1. This is one man, who hasn’t seen the vast majority of the guys he ranks, opinion.

 

2. A recent trend we’ve seen in baseball is how much higher value is placed on prospects in the upper minors. The Sox strength appears to be in A ball (Mayer, Bleis, Romero)

 

3. This is probably the most important one. Keith Law is very biased. He’s not a bad guy, I’ve heard him interviewed many times, he comes on the Soxprospects show sometimes but he is biased. He’s a lifelong New Yorker and maybe that’s a coincidence but he always has the Sox ranked lower than everyone else. It’s like clockwork. You can always count on Law to discount the Sox system compared to everyone else. It’s Laws law.

 

I don’t know who Law has seen nor care if he is biased.

 

And while I can see the logic in downgrading due to pitching prospects scarcity, I don’t agree with it. If you have enough position prospects, you can either trade them for pitchers or, if enough make MLB, they allow the budget to afford pitchers.

 

It’s not like your limited to using just your farm system…

[notin]

And once again ranked last in the Div, and 1 spot below DD Phillies.

 

Gee, why didn’t you make a post when Baseball America ranked the Sox system much higher than the Phillies.

 

Or do you only believe the negative stuff?

[Bobe2]

Wow! I now love Brasier and wonder if he should be our closer.

Mostly double talk but he keeps trying to sell it, I didn't know that they gave him a $2 million raise.

[moonslav59]

Mostly double talk but he keeps trying to sell it, I didn't know that they gave him a $2 million raise.

 

He made $1.4M in 2022 and will make $2M in 2023.

 

That's a $600K raise.

[sk7326]

Three points about Keith Laws rankings:

 

1. This is one man, who hasn’t seen the vast majority of the guys he ranks, opinion.

 

2. A recent trend we’ve seen in baseball is how much higher value is placed on prospects in the upper minors. The Sox strength appears to be in A ball (Mayer, Bleis, Romero)

 

3. This is probably the most important one. Keith Law is very biased. He’s not a bad guy, I’ve heard him interviewed many times, he comes on the Soxprospects show sometimes but he is biased. He’s a lifelong New Yorker and maybe that’s a coincidence but he always has the Sox ranked lower than everyone else. It’s like clockwork. You can always count on Law to discount the Sox system compared to everyone else. It’s Laws law.

 

I will push back on 3. He is very transparent about the rankings - the folks who do public facing work in this area (as it turns out, most of them are friends and appear on each other's shows) are going to have less information than teams do. They are doing the best they can. He has mentioned often - that he, Longenhagen (Fangraphs), McDaniel (ESPN) or Jim Callis (MLB.com) have different rankings but that none of them are "wrong". They all go and see as many prospects as possible, and the process is sound. The other thing is - when I've heard him on shows, he will just give his opinion when asked without the usual "well, you never know" sort of stuff. He's paid for takes - there you go. And - to be fair - most prospects don't make it, and an honest assessment of any random sample of prospects is likely to be negative.

 

FWIW, here is the blurb for #23 from the Athletic - https://theathletic.com/4138444/2023/02/02/mlb-farm-system-ranking-prospects/

 

Dodgers, Guardians, Orioles, Diamondbacks, Rays are the Top 5 (given where they have been drafted, the Orioles and D-Backs BETTER be good)

 

Their group of position-player prospects is probably in the upper half of farm systems, but their group of pitching prospects is one of the weakest. They might not have a future MLB starter anywhere on their full-season rosters; the best of those candidates all have huge reliever risk, at least. They lost one guy from their top-100 group last year, as Nick Yorke, their shocking first-round pick in 2020, hit just .232/.302/.365 in High A. He’ll turn 21 in April, though, and has time to recover.

Edited February 3, 2023 by sk7326

[moonslav59]

fangraphs has the Sox 9th

Prospects1500 has the Sox system 11th

MLB.com 11th (Aug '22)

si.com 11th (Aug '22)

oddschecker 11th (Sept '22)

Bleacher Reports 19th

 

Quite a spread, but it looks like maybe we are middle 10 or maybe top 35-40%, at best.

 

Not great.

 

We only just graduated Bello, so we can't really use that as an excuse.

 

I expected better. I still have hopes our system is better than what some of these guys think, but this is their business. They have been wrong before, and I'm hopeful they are wrong here. Personally, I think our farm is a lot better than it was 3 years ago.

 

soxprospects.com Fall '19

1. Casas

2. Mata

3. Groome

4. Jimenez

5. Dalbec

6. Duran

7. Houck

8. Song

9. Chatham

10. TWard

11. Zeferjahn

12. A Ramirez

13. C Murphey

14. Lugo

15. Decker

16. Cannon

17. Bello

18. A Flores

19. Rafaela

20. M Wilson

 

Others in the system not in top 20 back then: Walter, Perales, Paulino, Wikelman & Bonaci

 

Bloom's Additions:

Graduated (top ranking):

4. Whitlock

9. Winckowski

11. Wong

41. Ort

 

On farm:

1. Mayer

3. Bleis

5. Yorke

7. Romero

9. Anthony

15. Jordan

17. E Valdez

18. Hickey

19. E R-C

20. Kavadas

21. Coffey

23. Drohan

24. Kelly

25. R Hern

26. Abreu

27. Bannon

28. Paez

29. Uberstine

30. Hamilton

 

Seems like the whole league musta got better, if this isn't improvement.

 

 

 

[Hugh2]

I will push back on 3. He is very transparent about the rankings - the folks who do public facing work in this area (as it turns out, most of them are friends and appear on each other's shows) are going to have less information than teams do. They are doing the best they can. He has mentioned often - that he, Longenhagen (Fangraphs), McDaniel (ESPN) or Jim Callis (MLB.com) have different rankings but that none of them are "wrong". They all go and see as many prospects as possible, and the process is sound. The other thing is - when I've heard him on shows, he will just give his opinion when asked without the usual "well, you never know" sort of stuff. He's paid for takes - there you go. And - to be fair - most prospects don't make it, and an honest assessment of any random sample of prospects is likely to be negative.

 

FWIW, here is the blurb for #23 from the Athletic - https://theathletic.com/4138444/2023/02/02/mlb-farm-system-ranking-prospects/

 

Dodgers, Guardians, Orioles, Diamondbacks, Rays are the Top 5 (given where they have been drafted, the Orioles and D-Backs BETTER be good)

 

Yeah, but it’s everytime. He’s lower on the Sox system than everyone just about every year. That’s consistency. It will be interested to see where others rank the Sox

[Old Red]

fangraphs has the Sox 9th

Prospects1500 has the Sox system 11th

MLB.com 11th (Aug '22)

si.com 11th (Aug '22)

oddschecker 11th (Sept '22)

Bleacher Reports 19th

 

Quite a spread, but it looks like maybe we are middle 10 or maybe top 35-40%, at best.

 

Not great.

 

We only just graduated Bello, so we can't really use that as an excuse.

 

I expected better. I still have hopes our system is better than what some of these guys think, but this is their business. They have been wrong before, and I'm hopeful they are wrong here. Personally, I think our farm is a lot better than it was 3 years ago.

 

soxprospects.com Fall '19

1. Casas

2. Mata

3. Groome

4. Jimenez

5. Dalbec

6. Duran

7. Houck

8. Song

9. Chatham

10. TWard

11. Zeferjahn

12. A Ramirez

13. C Murphey

14. Lugo

15. Decker

16. Cannon

17. Bello

18. A Flores

19. Rafaela

20. M Wilson

 

Others in the system not in top 20 back then: Walter, Perales, Paulino, Wikelman & Bonaci

 

Bloom's Additions:

Graduated (top ranking):

4. Whitlock

9. Winckowski

11. Wong

41. Ort

 

On farm:

1. Mayer

3. Bleis

5. Yorke

7. Romero

9. Anthony

15. Jordan

17. E Valdez

18. Hickey

19. E R-C

20. Kavadas

21. Coffey

23. Drohan

24. Kelly

25. R Hern

26. Abreu

27. Bannon

28. Paez

29. Uberstine

30. Hamilton

 

Seems like the whole league musta got better, if this isn't improvement.

 

 

 

 

Most are just SUSPECTS!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Realistically, it make sense to evaluate the trade through the lens that you traded one year of Betts, because that’s true, and whether or not LA traded for him knowing they would extend him probably doesn’t change the fact that he wasn’t signing an extension here.

Years of control are of course major factors in trade returns for impending free agents and/or salary dumps.

 

My point has always been that the Dodgers were obviously dealing for a superstar they planned on keeping longterm -- and could have/should have been persuaded to give up more for a Hall of Famer... if they really wanted him, which they obviously did.

 

Back to the future: good teams are strong up the middle. Right now the Red Sox plan to open the '23 season without one single regular who has ever played an entire MLB season at C-SS-2B-CF. They're not bad players, but there is a lot riding on the hope they'll all stay healthy enough to be stable and productive. It's worrisome that the exact same thing can be said about the starting rotation (the mound being the most important location up the middle).

 

I have less doubts about the offense, and the adjustments required by Yoshida and Casas to become legit threats. Along with Devers -- and the no-shift rule -- the Sox lefties will rake!

[oldtimer]

There may be a few that make the team, but guys like Cordero, Duran, Downs and even Dalbec were high on previous lists yet didn't make the impact that we hoped for. It is unlikely more than a few of this list will make an impact.

[Bellhorn04]

Years of control are of course major factors in trade returns for impending free agents and/or salary dumps.

 

My point has always been that the Dodgers were obviously dealing for a superstar they planned on keeping longterm -- and could have/should have been persuaded to give up more for a Hall of Famer... if they really wanted him, which they obviously did.

 

Every potential deal has a tipping point, and they fall through all the time. The Dodgers knew we did not have a lot of other bidders for Mookie because of his $27 million salary, and they knew we were anxious to get under the tax line. They could have turned their backs on the deal and set their sights on signing Mookie as a free agent.

 

I think we need to face the fact that Bloom got what he could under the circumstances.

[Bellhorn04]

There may be a few that make the team, but guys like Cordero, Duran, Downs and even Dalbec were high on previous lists yet didn't make the impact that we hoped for. It is unlikely more than a few of this list will make an impact.

 

Not much optimism about our prospects here.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not much optimism about our prospects here.

 

Two lists this week: Law had Rafaela #37... EPSN had him nowhere.

[Old Red]

Not much optimism about our prospects here.

 

Not as much as some would like.

[notin]

Not much optimism about our prospects here.

 

I have plenty.

 

But then even the deepest farm system only has maybe 8-12 Major Leaguers in it at any time…

[mvp 78]

@tylermilliken_

Red Sox farm system rankings over the last few years:

 

@BaseballAmerica

:

2020 - 23

2021 - 20

2022 - 11

Mid-2022 - 11

 

@MLBPipeline

 

2020: 25

2021: 24

2022 - 14

Mid-2022: 11

 

@keithlaw

 

2020 - 25

2021 - 20

2022 - 20

2023 - 23

 

@fangraphs

ranked the Red Sox 9th at the end of 2022.

 

Law is the outlier. Whether or not the system is 11th or better is up for debate. However, the system is in much better shape than it was back in 2020.

[Bellhorn04]

I guess it's no surprise that Tomase jumped all over Law's #23 ranking as evidence of Bloom's plan being a failure.

 

What's amusing is that in the very same article by Tomase is a link to a column from exactly 2 days earlier in which he was excited about the Sox having 4 in Law's top 100.

[Old Red]

@tylermilliken_

Red Sox farm system rankings over the last few years:

 

@BaseballAmerica

:

2020 - 23

2021 - 20

2022 - 11

Mid-2022 - 11

 

@MLBPipeline

 

2020: 25

2021: 24

2022 - 14

Mid-2022: 11

 

@keithlaw

 

2020 - 25

2021 - 20

2022 - 20

2023 - 23

 

@fangraphs

ranked the Red Sox 9th at the end of 2022.

 

Law is the outlier. Whether or not the system is 11th or better is up for debate. However, the system is in much better shape than it was back in 2020.

 

But most importantly is the ML club?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I have plenty.

 

But then even the deepest farm system only has maybe 8-12 Major Leaguers in it at any time…

 

I look forward to the days when a Sox GM starts trading prospects again before they lose value when exposed to the big leagues (see Dalbec, Duran).

 

Right now, on the MLB's Red Sox prospect list, there are 10 players in the top 30 who can play shortstop. Even if the best of them are moved to other positions, there has to be a few expendables that can be added to a package for a legitimate arm or two.

 

Either that or at least bring one up that can provide stellar D, even if its in the late innings. Instead, Bloom trades a pitcher for a speed guy who blew out his knee.

[moonslav59]

Most are just SUSPECTS!

 

Talk about regurgitation.