A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

The pundits at the time expected the Sox to land May, Lux and Verdugo. That’s insanely unrealistic for one year of any player…

 

For 2.5 years of Mookie, sure!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So if Bloom's trade was Gray, May, Downs and Wong, most of the pundits would have lauded the trade. As of today, is that still a good enough return? They would have still been terrible in 2020 and 2022 and would have been worse off in 2021. All you have out of the deal is an injured Dustin May and another starter who is worse than Pivetta.

 

Not even close, and I was including Verdugo, who was always called "the centerpiece" of the deal -- even when it was hard for him to center himself between Graterol and nobody else.

 

At least the Sox would have received three good prospects for what turned out to be 12 years of Betts. Though that still wouldn't be quite the return of Seattle's #1, 3, and 5 prospects, plus a flier, that the Reds got for what turned out to be 6 years of Luis Castillo (after extending him, too).

[moonslav59]

In the aftermath of the Betts trade , the Dodgers immediately won a championship while the Sox plummeted to the bottom , looking up at the Orioles. That outweighs all this other stuff. It was a terrible deal for the Sox and their fans , no matter how you look at it or who you choose to blame.

 

Nobody disagrees it was a horrible time for the Sox.

 

The fact that we even "had to make" the deal sucked. That was "terrible."

 

I've never understood why assigning blame seems to be of utmost importance when evaluating every event, but I guess it's the way of the world, these days.

 

Blaming Bloom seems pointless and misdirected, to me.

[notin]

In the aftermath of the Betts trade , the Dodgers immediately won a championship while the Sox plummeted to the bottom , looking up at the Orioles. That outweighs all this other stuff. It was a terrible deal for the Sox and their fans , no matter how you look at it or who you choose to blame.

 

How does 2020 go with Betts? The Sox won 24 games. Throw Mookie’s 3.6 bWAR into the mix and subtract Verdugo’s 1.2 bWAR, and you’re looking at “improving” from 24-36 to 26-34 or 27-33.

 

Then Betts leaves to be a free agent.

 

THAT is the alternative path…

[Old Red]

Nobody disagrees it was a horrible time for the Sox.

 

The fact that we even "had to make" the deal sucked. That was "terrible."

 

I've never understood why assigning blame seems to be of utmost importance when evaluating every event, but I guess it's the way of the world, these days.

 

Blaming Bloom seems pointless and misdirected, to me.

 

Bloom gets blamed, because he’s supposedly the guy in charge, and is on his 4th year now. He gets blamed just like Theo did, and just like DD did when they screwed up. We know you can’t take it, but if Bloom can’t take it he shouldn’t have come to Boston in the first place, and face the bad Boston Media, and his critics everywhere else from his many admirers, or not from Red Sox Nation.

[sk7326]

The team articulation of their plan has been atrocious, although broadcasting your specific plans is not something any GM does.

 

I think it came down to Devers vs Bogey, and they made the right choice.

 

The talk of Bogey being their number 1 priority was either a lie of a gross miscalculation of the market, or as Red calls it "misreading the room."

 

I wish we could have kept 2 of the big 3. Betts was my #2, Devers #2 and Bogey #3.

 

Signing Story and Yoshida at numbers that look like enough to have kept Betts or Bogey does look frightful. The Betts comp is hard to make, because we had massive budget cuts in 2020 and 2021, so we'd have had to get rid of others, but the Story (plus maybe another player) vs Bogey comp can be made. In terms of judging which was the best one to sign, the jury is out, although the Story signing is looking like the Sale one, out of the gate.

 

Time will tell.

 

I think Bogey will do well. I think he'll easily earn $170M/6 or even $200M/8 but not what SD paid him.

 

I don't know, if Story or Yoshida will earn their keep. Most big signings don't work out for the team. We'll see.

 

You don't have to broadcast every specific move - but it's about series of moves reflecting an underlying plan. And that largely hasn't happened. There have been a series of band-aids. In 2021, the bandaids were good enough to come 6 wins from a most unlikely banner, last year those bandaids crapped out.

 

The last decade of Red Sox baseball more than anything else has been a story of ownership's priorities with the ballclub whiplashing pretty violently. Amazingly, they were wire-to-wire the best team in baseball in 2 of those seasons. Baseball historians in 20 years or so are going to be very confused.

[sk7326]

In the aftermath of the Betts trade , the Dodgers immediately won a championship while the Sox plummeted to the bottom , looking up at the Orioles. That outweighs all this other stuff. It was a terrible deal for the Sox and their fans , no matter how you look at it or who you choose to blame.

 

Well the Sox plummeted to the bottom having a 60 game stretch that lots of teams have in normal seasons. The next season they won 90 again.

 

That said, the trade really is more about the Dodgers are the class org of the league - what the Red Sox could/should aspire to and way aren't at the moment.

[Nick]

Bloom gets blamed, because he’s supposedly the guy in charge, and is on his 4th year now. He gets blamed just like Theo did, and just like DD did when they screwed up. We know you can’t take it, but if Bloom can’t take it he shouldn’t have come to Boston in the first place, and face the bad Boston Media, and his critics everywhere else from his many admirers, or not from Red Sox Nation.

 

At some point, even JH will run out of patience if the team continues to underperform.

 

But I'm not sure what directives JH can give without blowing up the budget and/or greenlighting emptying out the farm.

 

I am not trying to be difficult but what would have done differently?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bloom gets blamed, because he’s supposedly the guy in charge, and is on his 4th year now. He gets blamed just like Theo did, and just like DD did when they screwed up. We know you can’t take it, but if Bloom can’t take it he shouldn’t have come to Boston in the first place, and face the bad Boston Media, and his critics everywhere else from his many admirers, or not from Red Sox Nation.

 

Bloom doesn't get blamed for the Betts trade as much for all the bad trades and signings he's made since. Especially after telling fans the Sox now have so much more young talent to surround Devers, when explaining why Raffy was signed over Mookie.

 

Here's a Tomase take from today... main point: Keith Law's current ranking of the Red Sox system at #23 is only two places better than when Betts was still in Beantown.

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/red-sox-bottom-10-farm-system-ranking-indictment-teams-entire-plan

[Nick]

It's interesting that many here thought extending Devers (to the tune of 10 years, mind you) was the biggest goal this winter. Mission accomplished.

 

We also wanted a 'real' bullpen. Mission accomplished, at least on paper.

 

Starting rotation needed a makeover with departure of Eovaldi, Hill and Wacha. Again mission accomplished. (I'm going to consider Whitlock, Sale and Kluber as new additions to the starting rotation, hell I haven't seen Sale in 3 years)

 

We needed upgrade in the outfield. Mission accomplished. Two of the three starters are new.

 

We needed a replacement for DH. Mission accomplished. New DH can play in the field from time to time if we need additional right handed bats in the lineup. JD was useless as a fielder.

 

Now, no one player will replace Xander's offensive numbers. Kike won't match it but he certainly is capable of playing defense as well as Xander. Thus incremental improvement in offensive category at other positions will be enough to compensate for the departure of Xander's bat.

 

Tell me again how awful this winter was?

Edited February 2, 2023 by Nick

[Old Red]

Bloom doesn't get blamed for the Betts trade as much for all the bad trades and signings he's made since. Especially after telling fans the Sox now have so much more young talent to surround Devers, when explaining why Raffy was signed over Mookie.

 

Here's a Tomase take from today... main point: Keith Law's current ranking of the Red Sox system at #23 is only two places better than when Betts was still in Beantown.

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/red-sox-bottom-10-farm-system-ranking-indictment-teams-entire-plan

 

With all the boos that Bloom got talking about his bet I don’t think many fans were buying what Bloom, and JH were cooking up.

[Nick]

Why is Ryan Brasier still on Red Sox

 

“I know (Brasier) has been kind of a lightning rod for this. People talk about projections that can kind of roll their eyes,” Bloom said. “The fact of the matter is there’s a lot of things you can look at that that pitchers do that are really good indicators of what they’re gonna do next, and in many cases might be better indicators than the ERA. That doesn’t guarantee anything going forward. Obviously, we deal in probabilities, right? Nothing in life is guaranteed to us.

 

 

“But those indicators are real and there are things that not not just we, but also the industry as a whole, increasingly believe in because more often than not, they do prove out. And with Ryan, it’s not rocket science, he throws a ton of strikes. He has really good stuff, made some adjustments later in the season, just in terms of how and when he used what he had to sequence it better and help him get outs. The product of a lot of good work, first of all, obviously by Ryan, but also by various members of our staff... that really worked together to help him understand, ‘Okay, why are our results under-achieving what our stuff says we should do?

 

“It’s not because we don’t throw strikes, right? He throws a ton of strikes. So how else can we sequence our stuff to help us get outs better? Again, does that guarantee anything going forward? No. It’s something that has to be earned. But there’s a lot of reason there and optimism that’s shared by both front office and field staff that that we will get better results going forward.”

 

I hope I'm wrong about him.

[sk7326]

Bloom doesn't get blamed for the Betts trade as much for all the bad trades and signings he's made since. Especially after telling fans the Sox now have so much more young talent to surround Devers, when explaining why Raffy was signed over Mookie.

 

Here's a Tomase take from today... main point: Keith Law's current ranking of the Red Sox system at #23 is only two places better than when Betts was still in Beantown.

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/red-sox-bottom-10-farm-system-ranking-indictment-teams-entire-plan

 

The ranking of the farm system is interesting - and it's driven by the one thing you really can ding Bloom for (and has been a real surprise) - the lack of pitching in the organization. The position players are interesting - 3 or 4 players are in the various Top 100s (4 for Law, 3 for ESPN). I think there has been a concerted effort to add pitchers - but besides Bello, the system has not produced anybody with great starter projection. I am old enough to remember Clay Buchholz coming out of AAA and pitching a no-hitter in 2007. There is no pitcher of that level of repute.

[Nick]

What if Whitlock, Bello, Houck and Mata become future starters?

 

They are locked up for at least 5 years (Houck).

 

I'm good with it. Enough time to develop more pitchers.

 

We do have a war chest of $230+M budget. We're not the Rays.

[Nick]

Justin Turner's contract is interesting.

 

First, Dodgers declined 2023 club option of $16M, buying it out for $2M.

 

Turner got what he needed from the Sox, signing for $8.3M for 2023 but with the buy out option of $6.7M (seems high). Thus he will get $15M for 2023 at minimum. With incentives for plate appearances, he can get to $16M, matching his 2022 salary with the Dodgers.

 

He also has a player option of $13.4M for 2024.

 

Let's hope he has a good year and decides hitting in Fenway is good for his career.

[notin]

Not even close, and I was including Verdugo, who was always called "the centerpiece" of the deal -- even when it was hard for him to center himself between Graterol and nobody else.

 

At least the Sox would have received three good prospects for what turned out to be 12 years of Betts. Though that still wouldn't be quite the return of Seattle's #1, 3, and 5 prospects, plus a flier, that the Reds got for what turned out to be 6 years of Luis Castillo (after extending him, too).

 

The Sox didn’t trade 12 years of Betts. They traded 1 year of Betts and 3 of Price (at a 50% discount). Those 12 years came along later.

 

When the Sox acquired Sale, they traded for 3 years (assuming options). Not the six they’ve had him. And not the 8 (or 9 if his option vests) that will comprise his Sox tenure…

[Bellhorn04]

I think to be totally fair about it you have to admit that the Sox traded Betts for one year PLUS a golden opportunity to sign him to an extension, and no team was in a better position than the Dodgers to do so.

[sk7326]

What if Whitlock, Bello, Houck and Mata become future starters?

 

They are locked up for at least 5 years (Houck).

 

I'm good with it. Enough time to develop more pitchers.

 

We do have a war chest of $230+M budget. We're not the Rays.

 

The thing with the Rays is that they have spent a LOT on infrastructure and I am curious whether that has followed in Boston. Like Tampa has one of the league's largest pro scouting groups.

 

Bloom and Dombrowski both were intentional at adding arms and that has been good. But there is a lot of reliever risk with all of them - even the ones we like. Whitlock and Tanner Houck, M.D. both have a lot to prove there (I am more optimistic about Whitlock).

[moonslav59]

Bloom gets blamed, because he’s supposedly the guy in charge, and is on his 4th year now. He gets blamed just like Theo did, and just like DD did when they screwed up. We know you can’t take it, but if Bloom can’t take it he shouldn’t have come to Boston in the first place, and face the bad Boston Media, and his critics everywhere else from his many admirers, or not from Red Sox Nation.

 

I love this. It perfectly sums up flawed thinking.

[moonslav59]

You don't have to broadcast every specific move - but it's about series of moves reflecting an underlying plan. And that largely hasn't happened. There have been a series of band-aids. In 2021, the bandaids were good enough to come 6 wins from a most unlikely banner, last year those bandaids crapped out.

 

The last decade of Red Sox baseball more than anything else has been a story of ownership's priorities with the ballclub whiplashing pretty violently. Amazingly, they were wire-to-wire the best team in baseball in 2 of those seasons. Baseball historians in 20 years or so are going to be very confused.

 

I'm not happy with the W-L results under Bloom.

 

I don't blame him for some stuff, but other stuff I'm the driver of the wagon.

 

I look at the context.

 

I expect results in year 4 and 5. If we fail, it's on Bloom.

[notin]

The ranking of the farm system is interesting - and it's driven by the one thing you really can ding Bloom for (and has been a real surprise) - the lack of pitching in the organization. The position players are interesting - 3 or 4 players are in the various Top 100s (4 for Law, 3 for ESPN). I think there has been a concerted effort to add pitchers - but besides Bello, the system has not produced anybody with great starter projection. I am old enough to remember Clay Buchholz coming out of AAA and pitching a no-hitter in 2007. There is no pitcher of that level of repute.

 

Since selecting Trey Ball and Teddy Stankiewicz in the first two rounds in 2013, the Sox have only drafted 3 pitchers in the first two rounds - Kopech (1st round 2014), Groome (1st round 2016) and Houck (1st round 2017)…

[moonslav59]

At some point, even JH will run out of patience if the team continues to underperform.

 

But I'm not sure what directives JH can give without blowing up the budget and/or greenlighting emptying out the farm.

 

I am not trying to be difficult but what would have done differently?

 

Underperform implies lofty expectations for team that was in serious decline and then cut the budget and had no farmhands ready to step in and even play at replacement levels.

[Bellhorn04]

Bloom doesn't get blamed for the Betts trade as much for all the bad trades and signings he's made since. Especially after telling fans the Sox now have so much more young talent to surround Devers, when explaining why Raffy was signed over Mookie.

 

Here's a Tomase take from today... main point: Keith Law's current ranking of the Red Sox system at #23 is only two places better than when Betts was still in Beantown.

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/red-sox-bottom-10-farm-system-ranking-indictment-teams-entire-plan

 

Baseball America, on the other hand, ranked our system #11 in August/22.

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/where-red-sox-farm-system-ranks-baseball-america

[Old Red]

I love this. It perfectly sums up flawed thinking.

 

From you? YES! From the Boo Birds. NO!

Edited February 2, 2023 by Old Red

[notin]

I think to be totally fair about it you have to admit that the Sox traded Betts for one year PLUS a golden opportunity to sign him to an extension, and no team was in a better position than the Dodgers to do so.

 

But even then there was no guarantee. Those same Dodgers traded for Trea Turner with that same extension opportunity. But Turner is in Philly…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Sox didn’t trade 12 years of Betts. They traded 1 year of Betts and 3 of Price (at a 50% discount). Those 12 years came along later.

 

When the Sox acquired Sale, they traded for 3 years (assuming options). Not the six they’ve had him. And not the 8 (or 9 if his option vests) that will comprise his Sox tenure…

 

And the Dodgers didn't trade for 12 years of Betts... they just decided the day before the 2020 games began that he must be good enough to extend for the next dozen seasons.

[notin]

The ranking of the farm system is interesting - and it's driven by the one thing you really can ding Bloom for (and has been a real surprise) - the lack of pitching in the organization. The position players are interesting - 3 or 4 players are in the various Top 100s (4 for Law, 3 for ESPN). I think there has been a concerted effort to add pitchers - but besides Bello, the system has not produced anybody with great starter projection. I am old enough to remember Clay Buchholz coming out of AAA and pitching a no-hitter in 2007. There is no pitcher of that level of repute.

 

Soxprospects.com does say Luis Perales has the ceiling of a #2 starter. Brandon Walter and Wikelman also have starter potential per that site…

[bkzwhitestrican]

Not sure what their rank was last year, but the Sox farm coming in at #23 doesn't seem like much of an improvement given that this is year 4 of Bloom and he was basically brought in to be the opposite of Dombrowksi. Any upward movement in rankings likely came from being in position to draft Mayer who is already a top 10 prospect. How many years does Bloom get to complete his rebuild?

[Old Red]

Not sure what their rank was last year, but the Sox farm coming in at #23 doesn't seem like much of an improvement given that this is year 4 of Bloom and he was basically brought in to be the opposite of Dombrowksi. Any upward movement in rankings likely came from being in position to draft Mayer who is already a top 10 prospect. How many years does Bloom get to complete his rebuild?

 

And once again ranked last in the Div, and 1 spot below DD Phillies.

[dgalehouse]

Ranking the farm systems is just educated guesswork. One " expert's " opinion is as good as another's. Pick whichever one suits you. None of it matters until we see some results at Fenway.