A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

It’s definitely a combination of the three. But equally? If not, what’s most important? And what’s least?

 

Is 3 years of a 2.5 fWAR player going to bring back a better return than 1 year of a 6 fWAR player?

 

I think that would depend on the salary. If the salaries were equal, the 1 year of 6 fWAR is much more important as you are getting that from one position alone. Just earning an additional 1.5 fWAR over 3 years? I'm not sure there's enough meat on that bone to justify a bigger return.

 

It's the difference between Xander and Profar.

[Old Red]

So they aren't useless then, especially since their development can lead to them being traded for valuable pieces at the very least.

That’s what I said they are useful in two ways.

1. Producing in a Red Sox uniform

2. Traded for someone who does.

[mvp 78]

That’s what I said they are useful in two ways.

1. Producing in a Red Sox uniform

2. Traded for someone who does.

 

As you stated, they provided value to us as fans because they are good to talk about, hope about, dream about, etc.

[Bellhorn04]

I disagree. Espinoza was a very good asset that could have been dealt for a better piece than Pomeranz. Maybe hold off on dealing him until the next offseason as part of a larger package?

 

That was a semi-desperation move, because we badly needed a starting pitcher, and there wasn't much available.

[dgalehouse]

Bottom line: Dombrowski won . Bloom has not. The best way for Bloom to silence the critics is to win .

[Old Red]

As you stated, they provided value to us as fans because they are good to talk about, hope about, dream about, etc.

 

I said they were good to talk about, but i wouldn’t call that any kind of value. Look if it makes people feel better, and it does for some to see a higher ranking, but it doesn’t matter to me one way, or the other. I go watch the SD in Portland, because I like baseball, but I go watch the local colleges too.

[Old Red]

Bottom line: Dombrowski won . Bloom has not. The best way for Bloom to silence the critics is to win .

 

Spot on. The WL record of the Red Sox is what matters most, and that is the here, and now.

[mvp 78]

That was a semi-desperation move, because we badly needed a starting pitcher, and there wasn't much available.

 

The Trade

 

The Boston Red Sox received left-handed starter Drew Pomeranz from the San Diego Padres in exchange for right-handed pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza, per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

 

Boston Red Sox

 

In need of starting pitching to bolster their high-scoring offense, the Red Sox cashed in Espinoza—the No. 21 prospect in baseball, according to MLB.com—to grab Pomeranz, who was having a breakout, All-Star season with the Padres.

 

The results haven't been great so far. Through three starts with Boston, Pomeranz is 0-2 with an unsightly 7.53 ERA.

 

It's a small sample, obviously. And Pomeranz has intermittently flashed the stuff that made him successful in San Diego, as Red Sox skipper John Farrell pointed out.

 

"Three starts in, I know the numbers can look out of sync or not strong," Farrell said, per ESPN.com's Scott Lauber. "But still, there's quality stuff being thrown. It's a matter of consistency."

 

The 27-year-old Pomeranz won't become a free agent until 2019, so assuming he returns to form, this could still be a positive for the Red Sox.

 

So far, however, it's a mixed bag at best considering what the Sox surrendered.

 

Grade: C-

 

 

 

San Diego Padres

 

The Pads, who have shifted into full-blown rebuild mode, appear to have sold high on Pomeranz. And they acquired a heck of a building block in Espinoza, an 18-year-old who has struck out 141 hitters in 142 minor league innings.

 

There's no such thing as a can't-miss teenage prospect, but San Diego may have turned a strong half-season from Pomeranz into a future front-line starter. And remember, the Padres acquired Pomeranz from the Oakland A's this winter for first baseman Yonder Alonso, who's hitting .247 with a .651 OPS.

 

As SB Nation's Grant Brisbee put it, "The San Diego Padres turned Yonder Alonso into a golden arm using This One Weird Trick."

 

When you frame it like that, it's tough not to love this move from the Friars' perspective.

 

Grade: A

 

[notin]

I think that would depend on the salary. If the salaries were equal, the 1 year of 6 fWAR is much more important as you are getting that from one position alone. Just earning an additional 1.5 fWAR over 3 years? I'm not sure there's enough meat on that bone to justify a bigger return.

 

It's the difference between Xander and Profar.

 

If you use the BTV model, and let’s say the 6 fWAR player makes $20mill while the $2.5fWAR player makes $10mill.

 

The 6fWAR player would have a surplus value of 6 x $8mill minus $20mill = $28mill.

 

The 2.5fWAR player would have a surplus value of 3 x (2.5 x $8mill) minus (3 x $10mill) = $30mill.

 

So in this case, the 2.5fWAR player is worth slightly more using this model. But pay him an average of $11mill across those 3 years, and he is worth less than the 6 fWAR player…

[mvp 78]

2016 starting pitcher in-season deals:

Padres also dealt Cashner at the deadline and he had a 6+ ERA for the Marlins.

Mariners dealt Miley and he had a 6+ ERA for the O's down the stretch.

Rays dealt Matt Moore and he was decent for SFG, but they massively overpaid for him (Duffy the 2015 ROY runner up along with their 4th and 24th ranked prospects).

Rich Hill and Josh Reddick (OAK) for Montas, Cotton and Holmes (LAD). Hill pitched fantastic for the Dodgers with a 1.83 ERA, but only had one start for them prior to September due to a finger blister.

Pirates traded Francisco Liriano in a salary dump deal and he had a solid 2.92 ERA for what that deal was.

Yankees traded Ivan Nova for 2 PTBNL and he was outstanding 1.9 fWAR and 3.06 ERA afterwards.

[notin]

Bottom line: Dombrowski won . Bloom has not. The best way for Bloom to silence the critics is to win .

 

Cherington won, but no critics were silenced…

[mvp 78]

If you use the BTV model, and let’s say the 6 fWAR player makes $20mill while the $2.5fWAR player makes $10mill.

 

The 6fWAR player would have a surplus value of 6 x $8mill minus $20mill = $28mill.

 

The 2.5fWAR player would have a surplus value of 3 x (2.5 x $8mill) minus (3 x $10mill) = $30mill.

 

So in this case, the 2.5fWAR player is worth slightly more using this model. But pay him an average of $11mill across those 3 years, and he is worth less than the 6 fWAR player…

I agree.

[mvp 78]

Cherington won, but no critics were silenced…

 

They were for one offseason. Then last place came again and again.

[notin]

They were for one offseason. Then last place came again and again.

 

So the legacy isn’t in the winning …

[mvp 78]

@IanCundall

Red Sox announced they acquired RHP Theo Denlinger from CWS for Franklin German. Denlinger is listed at 6-3, 255 & was drafted in the 7th rd. in 2021. In 2022 in A+/AA: 48.1 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 66 K:21 BB. He’s also a blacksmith & has a workshop w/a forge outside his house.

 

I see this as an absolute win.

[mvp 78]

So the legacy isn’t in the winning …

 

The legacy is complaining.

[notin]

The legacy is complaining.

 

It also helps if you get fired before your bad deals drag the team down…

[mvp 78]

@IanCundall

Red Sox announced they acquired RHP Theo Denlinger from CWS for Franklin German. Denlinger is listed at 6-3, 255 & was drafted in the 7th rd. in 2021. In 2022 in A+/AA: 48.1 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 66 K:21 BB. He’s also a blacksmith & has a workshop w/a forge outside his house.

 

I see this as an absolute win.

 

https://twitter.com/Velocity_GB/status/1496260447401660418

[moonslav59]

Fine looks better than 3,4,5… years ago, but does that translate to a better big league club is what’s most important to some.

 

It's the most important thing to all.

 

Baseball is never a sure bet, even with know players. Much of our expectations are built upon speculation and hopes, even for vets. Sure;y, they are easier to have faith in, but we've seen how almost a whole group of vets can decline or have up years, all at the same time, and make or break a season.

 

Prospects are much more speculative, but as a GM, you try your best to build up the farm. While many guesses go wrong, these ranking services to get more right than some random generator does, so they do pull some weight. There are examples of flops and surprises, everywhere.

 

I'm just saying, I'd prefer to look at our farm and see good things happening, and other people seeing the same thing I'm seeing, than having most of the experts saying our prospects do not look to promising. Of course, any of our kids can end up being let-downs, but I like our quality and quantity for the first time in a very long time. I know I can be disappointed, but I don't think I'm being optimistic for no reason.

 

I could be wrong, but I get the feeling you are choosing to be pessimistic with no real supporting evidence, except Law.

[moonslav59]

They were for one offseason.

 

No, they weren't.

[moonslav59]

It also helps if you get fired before your bad deals drag the team down…

 

...and then sign with a team who has an owner willing to spend, spend and spend some more.

[moonslav59]

@IanCundall

Red Sox announced they acquired RHP Theo Denlinger from CWS for Franklin German. Denlinger is listed at 6-3, 255 & was drafted in the 7th rd. in 2021. In 2022 in A+/AA: 48.1 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 66 K:21 BB. He’s also a blacksmith & has a workshop w/a forge outside his house.

 

I see this as an absolute win.

 

Where do you guess soxprospects.com will place Denlinger in their top 60? (German was 22nd and ahead of Kelly at 24th.)

[moonslav59]

The legacy is complaining.

 

You got that right.

 

Even Theo was getting more and more complaining, especially after 2007.

[notin]

You got that right.

 

Even Theo was getting more and more complaining, especially after 2007.

 

Nothing beat that guy on the other site - Bigfoot14b or something similar - ripping “Guitar Boy” as he called Epstein, for ruining the Red Sox. And not stopping this tirade up to and through the the 2007 World Series!

[moonslav59]

Nothing beat that guy on the other site - Bigfoot14b or something similar - ripping “Guitar Boy” as he called Epstein, for ruining the Red Sox. And not stopping this tirade up to and through the the 2007 World Series!

 

softlaw was pretty bad, too- ripping Theo apologists and pink hatters, left and right,

[Old Red]

It's the most important thing to all.

 

Baseball is never a sure bet, even with know players. Much of our expectations are built upon speculation and hopes, even for vets. Sure;y, they are easier to have faith in, but we've seen how almost a whole group of vets can decline or have up years, all at the same time, and make or break a season.

 

Prospects are much more speculative, but as a GM, you try your best to build up the farm. While many guesses go wrong, these ranking services to get more right than some random generator does, so they do pull some weight. There are examples of flops and surprises, everywhere.

 

I'm just saying, I'd prefer to look at our farm and see good things happening, and other people seeing the same thing I'm seeing, than having most of the experts saying our prospects do not look to promising. Of course, any of our kids can end up being let-downs, but I like our quality and quantity for the first time in a very long time. I know I can be disappointed, but I don't think I'm being optimistic for no reason.

 

I could be wrong, but I get the feeling you are choosing to be pessimistic with no real supporting evidence, except Law.

 

Yes you are wrong again. You look at it as being pessimistic, but I look at it as not going overboard, and being as optimistic as you are. Rankings, and ratings are all over the place depending who you listen to, so I definitely wouldn’t judge anything on just one ranking from Law, or anyone else. Law was just one ranking that was brought up, and that’s why I commented on it.

[notin]

@IanCundall

Red Sox announced they acquired RHP Theo Denlinger from CWS for Franklin German. Denlinger is listed at 6-3, 255 & was drafted in the 7th rd. in 2021. In 2022 in A+/AA: 48.1 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 66 K:21 BB. He’s also a blacksmith & has a workshop w/a forge outside his house.

 

I see this as an absolute win.

 

 

I’m hesitant.

 

Denlinger turns 27 in July…

[Old Red]

@IanCundall

Red Sox announced they acquired RHP Theo Denlinger from CWS for Franklin German. Denlinger is listed at 6-3, 255 & was drafted in the 7th rd. in 2021. In 2022 in A+/AA: 48.1 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 66 K:21 BB. He’s also a blacksmith & has a workshop w/a forge outside his house.

 

I see this as an absolute win.

 

Agree, and a good blacksmith may come in handy.

[mvp 78]

No, they weren't.

 

Maybe not on whatever cesspool you posted on.

[mvp 78]

Where do you guess soxprospects.com will place Denlinger in their top 60? (German was 22nd and ahead of Kelly at 24th.)

 

Somewhere between Fernandez at 37 and Webb at 56?

 

My guess is mid-40's.

 

One site had him 44th for the ChiSox last season and Broadway 54th. Now Broadway is ranked 42nd for the Red Sox, but Denlinger had a better season last year. They were both drafted in '21 in subsequent rounds.