A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

The 2023 Red Sox should have the benefit of low expectations.

 

Perhaps like the 2021 team, this time of winter.

[Bellhorn04]

The 2023 Red Sox should have the benefit of low expectations.

 

Not really. I don't think low expectations will be of any help at all to the front office if the team finishes about the same as 2022. They will be under siege. This is Red Sox fans we're talking about. We're nuts.

[Bobe2]

How a business got to where it is matters, and sometimes it goes back farther than 1-2 years or even 3-4 years.

 

If you want to think of the Red Sox as a business, then are they really failing on profit-making as we suck?

 

I guess it depends on how low they are willing to go, do they want to be bottom feeders like the pirates and profit off the tv money and competitive balance payments, no mlb team should lose money but business men want a higher bottom line every year and that is JH’s windmill

[Bellhorn04]

I guess it depends on how low they are willing to go, do they want to be bottom feeders like the pirates and profit off the tv money and competitive balance payments, no mlb team should lose money but business men want a higher bottom line every year and that is JH’s windmill

 

They're never going to be like the Pirates. They have been doing some spending, after all. Yoshida, Jansen, Turner, Kluber, Smith. That's over 60 million in payroll this season.

[moonslav59]

Unless management does the unexpected before the season starts I don’t see this team having much of a chance making the playoffs, even with the new schedule, Texas, Angles and Seattle have all improved so has Toronto, New York, Tampa and Cleveland, and to be honest this team doesn’t look as strong as last years team

 

I'm not all that excited about 2023, either, but other than SS and maybe a slot or two in the rotation, do you think we should improve, stay about even or get worse at each of the other 24 slots on the 26 man roster or 38 slots on the 40?

 

Please grade one by one:

 

Catcher

.694 (Vaz/Plawecki/McGuire) vs McGuire/Wong

 

1B

.683 (Dalbec/Cordero/Hosmer) vs Casas/Turner/Dalbec

 

2B

.724 (Story/Arroyo) vs Story/Arroyo/EValdez

 

3B

.856 (Devers/Dalbec) vs Devers/ Turner

 

LF

.694 (Verdugo/Pham) vs Yoshida/Dugo

 

CF

.671 (Kike/Duran) vs Kike/Refsnyder

 

RF

.661 (JBJ/Dugo/Ref/Arroyo/Cordero) vs Dugo/Ref

 

DH

.763 (JD- the 2022 JD) vs Turner (Yoshida/Dalbec)

 

I see improvement at 6-7 slots and even or maybe slightly worse at 1-2 slots.

 

The pen looks better at all 8 slots and pen depth in the minors. That's + 8 slots, maybe it ends up plus 6 or 7.

 

The rotation is the hardest to project and compare to mixed evaluations of our 2022 rotation. Was Wacha really as good as his ERA indicated? Was Nate really the same Nate from 2021? Was Hill really any better than any of the 5 we have for 2023?

 

I'd be fine with saying we got worse at 2 of the five slots, about even at 2 and maybe better at one. I do think SP'er depth is light years better than 2022's. Is that enough to balance 2022 with 2023's rotation? Who knows.

 

Again, I'm not projecting greatness, but I see a rotation pretty even to 2022. I see a major loss at SS. I see a major gain with the pen and likely gains at 6 or 7 of the other 8 slots in the line-up.

 

What do you see, slot by slot?

 

 

[moonslav59]

I guess it depends on how low they are willing to go, do they want to be bottom feeders like the pirates and profit off the tv money and competitive balance payments, no mlb team should lose money but business men want a higher bottom line every year and that is JH’s windmill

 

Agreed, but if you are going to talk about the Red Sox as a business, then how are they doing as a business?

 

When JH goes to sell the team, will he take a loss?

 

Is he losing m oney, year after year? Are his overall profits less and less each year?

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not all that excited about 2023, either, but other than SS and maybe a slot or two in the rotation, do you think we should improve, stay about even or get worse at each of the other 24 slots on the 26 man roster or 38 slots on the 40?

 

Please grade one by one:

 

Catcher

.694 (Vaz/Plawecki/McGuire) vs McGuire/Wong

 

1B

.683 (Dalbec/Cordero/Hosmer) vs Casas/Turner/Dalbec

 

2B

.724 (Story/Arroyo) vs Story/Arroyo/EValdez

 

3B

.856 (Devers/Dalbec) vs Devers/ Turner

 

LF

.694 (Verdugo/Pham) vs Yoshida/Dugo

 

CF

.671 (Kike/Duran) vs Kike/Refsnyder

 

RF

.661 (JBJ/Dugo/Ref/Arroyo/Cordero) vs Dugo/Ref

 

DH

.763 (JD- the 2022 JD) vs Turner (Yoshida/Dalbec)

 

I see improvement at 6-7 slots and even or maybe slightly worse at 1-2 slots.

 

The pen looks better at all 8 slots and pen depth in the minors. That's + 8 slots, maybe it ends up plus 6 or 7.

 

The rotation is the hardest to project and compare to mixed evaluations of our 2022 rotation. Was Wacha really as good as his ERA indicated? Was Nate really the same Nate from 2021? Was Hill really any better than any of the 5 we have for 2023?

 

I'd be fine with saying we got worse at 2 of the five slots, about even at 2 and maybe better at one. I do think SP'er depth is light years better than 2022's. Is that enough to balance 2022 with 2023's rotation? Who knows.

 

Again, I'm not projecting greatness, but I see a rotation pretty even to 2022. I see a major loss at SS. I see a major gain with the pen and likely gains at 6 or 7 of the other 8 slots in the line-up.

 

What do you see, slot by slot?

 

 

 

This could be done with actual projections now.

[moonslav59]

They're never going to be like the Pirates. They have been doing some spending, after all. Yoshida, Jansen, Turner, Kluber, Smith. That's over 60 million in payroll this season.

 

We still look to be about $30M short of 2022's tax line budget, but we expected a dip to get below the line, just maybe not this far under.

 

There is still time for spending, including a Devers extension that begins in 2023 or a trade that involves taking on a salary to lessen the return needed.

 

I'm not projecting we spend much more, but we still might. Even just signing Andrus would get us closer.

[moonslav59]

This could be done with actual projections now.

 

I did it with Steamers a few days ago, but they did not have Turner's or Kluber's numbers. Considering how their projections are generally considered conservative, we still came out with more plusses than minuses. but the Bogey loss was a big one, and there is debate about where to put Story- at 2B or SS. If at SS, it's a loss. If it's at 2B it's even or a plus at 2B.

 

I think they had Dever's fWAR projected as lower than 2022, which I don't agree with, but maybe some 3B play by Turner, instead of Dalbec could flip 3B to a plus by Steamer.

[Bobe2]

Agreed, but if you are going to talk about the Red Sox as a business, then how are they doing as a business?

 

When JH goes to sell the team, will he take a loss?

 

Is he losing m oney, year after year? Are his overall profits less and less each year?

 

There is no way that Fenway Group is losing money, revenue was down during the COVID years, but the way that the Redsox as a business is structured I really don’t think that they need many fans in the seats if any to show a profit, but it would be an embarrassment for Henry showing lots of empty seats on tv

[moonslav59]

There is no way that Fenway Group is losing money, revenue was down during the COVID years, but the way that the Redsox as a business is structured I really don’t think that they need many fans in the seats if any to show a profit, but it would be an embarrassment for Henry showing lots of empty seats on tv

 

You did say...

 

If I ran a business and hired away a competitors operating manager and my business got worse and my competitors got better, it wouldn’t take me years to figure out I made a huge mistake.

 

if money is still being made, what is the business mistake?

[jacksonianmarch]

Reading some opinions on Henry prepping for a sale of the Sox. Anyone else think this is coming or even wanted? Henry is the best owner the Sox have had, but his hiring of bloom and passing on signing big ticket home grown players makes me wonder if they’re onto something.

[moonslav59]

Reading some opinions on Henry prepping for a sale of the Sox. Anyone else think this is coming or even wanted? Henry is the best owner the Sox have had, but his hiring of bloom and passing on signing big ticket home grown players makes me wonder if they’re onto something.

 

We do have a history of not extending our own players at top dollar- all along.

 

The biggest extensions were AGon, Porcello and Beckett. Bogey's was a big one, but the opt out after 3 might still make it top 4, but not on the scale of some other extensions after figuring inflation.

 

Henry has gone through patches like this, before, so it's hard to know. If we was planning on selling, soon, why sign Story and Yoshida?

[notin]

Reading some opinions on Henry prepping for a sale of the Sox. Anyone else think this is coming or even wanted? Henry is the best owner the Sox have had, but his hiring of bloom and passing on signing big ticket home grown players makes me wonder if they’re onto something.

 

 

It’s not that the Sox are not spending; they’re just not spending the way fans want.

 

They’ve spent over $150mill so far this off-season on Yoshida, Jansen, Martin, Joely Rodriguez and Justin Turner…

[Larry Cook]

Thomase reporting marlins interested in trading some quality pitching for cassas. Marlins also like refeala.

 

While I doubt the very best strategists in the n.s.a. could figure out hang’em Chaim’s master plan, I doubt trading cassas now is part of the equation!

 

Although if alcantara’s name comes up in these trade negotiations, I might reconsider that statement.

[moonslav59]

It’s not that the Sox are not spending; they’re just not spending the way fans want.

 

They’ve spent over $150mill so far this off-season on Yoshida, Jansen, Martin, Joely Rodriguez and Justin Turner…

 

Still, nothing longer than 5 years, and only one deal longer than 2.

 

Since the Price signing, nothing has been longer than ...

 

6 Story

5 Sale, Yoshida, JD

4 Nate, Porcello, Whitlock

3 Bogey (opt out), Vaz

 

Am I missing anyone?

[Larry Cook]

Still, nothing longer than 5 years, and only one deal longer than 2.

 

Since the Price signing, nothing has been longer than ...

 

6 Story

5 Sale, Yoshida, JD

4 Nate, Porcello, Whitlock

3 Bogey (opt out), Vaz

 

Am I missing anyone?

 

Hang’em Chaim is only responsive for 3 of those? The story signing is still a head scratcher to me.

And to pay so much for yoshida, when they could have resigned schwarber is another head scratcher.

[moonslav59]

Hang’em Chaim is only responsive for 3 of those? The story signing is still a head scratcher to me.

And to pay so much for yoshida, when they could have resigned schwarber is another head scratcher.

 

Apparently, Sox scouts have longed for Yoshida for years, and the timing matched up better with JD's departure than Schwarber's timing did, but your point is well-taken.

 

Who do we not sign, if we added Schwarber? Wacha, Hill and Strahm don't even equal his AAV.

 

With Bogey going, the Story signing makes more sense than Schwarber.

 

[Hugh2]

As your King of s***** predictions this off-season I’d love to provide another one.

 

Miami will trade Lopez (or another SP not named Alcantara) to another team that involves them receiving a top 3b/OF/1B big bat prospect in the deal.

 

That will not be Tristan Casas and the Boston RedSox.

[moonslav59]

As your King of s***** predictions this off-season I’d love to provide another one.

 

Miami will trade Lopez (or another SP not named Alcantara) to another team that involves them receiving a top 3b/OF/1B big bat prospect in the deal.

 

That will not be Tristan Casas and the Boston RedSox.

 

You are all but willing a Sox-MIA trade involving a SP'er to happen.

[Hugh2]

You are all but willing a Sox-MIA trade involving a SP'er to happen.

 

No, I just think teams are jumping on the agent bandwagon and using the Sox as fake interest to get another team to up the anti.

 

Personally I was advocating for a trade with Miami.

[notin]

As your King of s***** predictions this off-season I’d love to provide another one.

 

Miami will trade Lopez (or another SP not named Alcantara) to another team that involves them receiving a top 3b/OF/1B big bat prospect in the deal.

 

That will not be Tristan Casas and the Boston RedSox.

 

Brett Baty would have worked out but he went and got hurt…

[moonslav59]

I doubt MIA would take this deal, but I do think it would make sense to both teams:

 

To MIA: Dugo, Duran, Murphy and Dalbec

 

To BOS: AGarcia, Luzardo & M Rojas

Edited January 3, 2023 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

I doubt MIA would take this deal, but I do think it would make sense to both teams:

 

To MIA: Dugo, Duran, Murphy and Dalbec

 

To BOS: AGarcia, Luzardo & M Rojas

 

Now there is talk of interest in Luke Voit which would make Dalbec expendable.

[notin]

Now there is talk of interest in Luke Voit which would make Dalbec expendable.

 

Dalbec was already expendable.

 

Voit is useless. I’d rather have Hosmer back…

Edited January 3, 2023 by notin

[notin]

I doubt MIA would take this deal, but I do think it would make sense to both teams:

 

To MIA: Dugo, Duran, Murphy and Dalbec

 

To BOS: AGarcia, Luzardo & M Rojas

 

Rafaela plus Dalbec for Edward Cabrera and Wendle…

[moonslav59]

Rafaela plus Dalbec for Edward Cabrera and Wendle…

 

What's all the fuss about Wendle?

 

We need a SS.

[notin]

What's all the fuss about Wendle?

 

We need a SS.

 

 

Elvis Andrus still needs work…

[Nick]

Absolutely no interest in trading Casas. 6 years of team control. Rafaela is major league ready defensively. Go buy a shortstop. We still have money left.

[Tedballgame]

Dalbec was already expendable.

 

Voit is useless. I’d rather have Hosmer back…

 

Voit could platoon at first and hit 20 homers. Easily. He has tremendous power.