A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

If Casas struggles vs lefties, then yes, Dalbec is a better fit.

 

It won't bother me, which one they choose to trade.

 

I just think Dalbec is the better fit because he can play more positions. Hosmer is 1B/DH only. If Yoshida/LHB is the primary a DH and Casas/LHB is the primary 1B, there is no reason to keep Hosmer/LHB around.

[Hugh2]

I just think Dalbec is the better fit because he can play more positions. Hosmer is 1B/DH only. If Yoshida/LHB is the primary a DH and Casas/LHB is the primary 1B, there is no reason to keep Hosmer/LHB around.

 

This is why I think no one gets traded, at least not in April. I don’t want to give up on Dalbec yet but I could see him starting in AAA working on positional versatility and seeing if he can improve his contact rate.

 

You can move Hosmer at any time, it’s not hard. It might be easier to wait for a team to have a need at first base to make a trade anyways. Wait for someone to get injured.

[moonslav59]

I just think Dalbec is the better fit because he can play more positions. Hosmer is 1B/DH only. If Yoshida/LHB is the primary a DH and Casas/LHB is the primary 1B, there is no reason to keep Hosmer/LHB around.

 

Dalbec will start collecting massive arb raises soon! Hosmer is free!

[moonslav59]

This is why I think no one gets traded, at least not in April. I don’t want to give up on Dalbec yet but I could see him starting in AAA working on positional versatility and seeing if he can improve his contact rate.

 

You can move Hosmer at any time, it’s not hard. It might be easier to wait for a team to have a need at first base to make a trade anyways. Wait for someone to get injured.

 

Who do you cut or trade before them, assuming we add a SS, RF and SP (or more?)

 

We still have Koshida to add and we have 40, now.

 

Add Koshida- DFA/Trade Ort?

 

Add __SS___ DFA/Trade Brasier?

 

Add __RF___ DFA/Trade DHern?

 

Add __SP___ DFA/Trade Hosmer/Dalbec or who?

 

Taylor ?

Seabold ?

 

We might add 4-5 more players, not just 3.

 

IMO, one goes.

 

[moonslav59]

Looking at the list of possible DFA and trade candidates, I can't help but think the bottom of our 40 man roster is as good as it's been since maybe 2019 or before.

 

I know, I know, it's the top that wins, now, but it's been a 3 year process to get it to the point where the choices get hard to make when someone has to go.

 

That's not to say players I did not list (Ort, Brasier, DHern, Dalbec or Hosmer and Seabold or Taylor) are players I'm happy about. I'd like to trade Downs, Duran and a few others, if I didn't think it was selling low, and maybe their stock can rise, again. I'm still not sure why Duran has a 5.9 value on BTV, and I'd probably trade him for 90% of players valued between 3.5 and 5.8, but back to my point.

 

I think we are all set with the quantity part of rebuilding the 40 and maybe almost there on the farm. I can't help but wonder when the big wigs flick the switch to quality over quantity. (I was hoping it started a month ago, but it doesn't look that way.)

[jacksonianmarch]

Sox are gonna be a 70 win team selling off parts at the deadline. They might as well deal Devers. Bloom is hoping sale can put together a good first half so he can be sold off too

[oldtimer]

Looking at the list of possible DFA and trade candidates, I can't help but think the bottom of our 40 man roster is as good as it's been since maybe 2019 or before.

 

I know, I know, it's the top that wins, now, but it's been a 3 year process to get it to the point where the choices get hard to make when someone has to go.

 

That's not to say players I did not list (Ort, Brasier, DHern, Dalbec or Hosmer and Seabold or Taylor) are players I'm happy about. I'd like to trade Downs, Duran and a few others, if I didn't think it was selling low, and maybe their stock can rise, again. I'm still not sure why Duran has a 5.9 value on BTV, and I'd probably trade him for 90% of players valued between 3.5 and 5.8, but back to my point.

 

I think we are all set with the quantity part of rebuilding the 40 and maybe almost there on the farm. I can't help but wonder when the big wigs flick the switch to quality over quantity. (I was hoping it started a month ago, but it doesn't look that way.)

 

Here is a related thought on how to develop a consistently competitive team through trades and the draft. It's not a novel thought as some teams seem to practice the approach now.

 

1. Teams need a few stars bolstered with quality players throughout to be competitive. Having stars reach free agency approximately when they reach peak performance and then paying them exorbitant very long term contracts seems to be where the market is headed. That approach requires almost unlimited budgets to fill in rosters with other quality players. You may get a few great years but then the stars are likely to decline and the team has to swallow many years of non performing contracts.

 

2. An alternative to this is to draft and trade wisely for young players with high potential. When some show the potential to be stars go ahead and extend them to long term attractive contracts that those players are likely to accept. Set the length of contract to extend a couple of years beyond their expected peak performance years. The risk is that they may not become stars but instead just good quality players. If they do become star quality and the market blows up, as it is now, trade them for other star potential prospects around the time of their peak performance.

 

3. Approach 2 may well be less costly, allowing the surrounding players to be of higher quality so the team becomes consistently competitive.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Dalbec will start collecting massive arb raises soon! Hosmer is free!

 

You realize Dalbec is the Opening Day third baseman? The Red Sox just won't announce it until about a week left in Spring Training, after they've sold as many Fenway and Jet Blue tickets as possible -- and then they'll dump Devers for a prospect to an NL East or NL West kajillionaire powerhouse, who will immediately sign him to a 20 year contract for $400,000M.

[moonslav59]

You realize Dalbec is the Opening Day third baseman? The Red Sox just won't announce it until about a week left in Spring Training, after they've sold as many Fenway and Jet Blue tickets as possible -- and then they'll dump Devers for a prospect to an NL East or NL West kajillionaire powerhouse, who will immediately sign him to a 20 year contract for $400,000M.

 

 

Sounds like a great plan!

[mvp 78]

Sox are gonna be a 70 win team selling off parts at the deadline. They might as well deal Devers. Bloom is hoping sale can put together a good first half so he can be sold off too

 

I think they'll be similar to last year's team, unless their are major additions going forward. Dealing Raffy is the only sensible move unless they are signing him prior to ST.

[mvp 78]

You realize Dalbec is the Opening Day third baseman? The Red Sox just won't announce it until about a week left in Spring Training, after they've sold as many Fenway and Jet Blue tickets as possible -- and then they'll dump Devers for a prospect to an NL East or NL West kajillionaire powerhouse, who will immediately sign him to a 20 year contract for $400,000M.

 

He still has a lot of trade value. If they deal him, it'll be for a substantial prospect haul.

[notin]

I think they'll be similar to last year's team, unless their are major additions going forward. Dealing Raffy is the only sensible move unless they are signing him prior to ST.

 

I don’t mind if they sign him during ST…

[mvp 78]

I don’t mind if they sign him during ST…

 

I don't mind either, but I think it gets less likely the closer they get to Opening Day.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't mind either, but I think it gets less likely the closer they get to Opening Day.

 

The always phlegmatic Bloom will wait until the last possible second to trade Devers, soliciting and contemplating the best possible package from 29 other clubs to end the the worst possible winter that defined his career. Then, moving like a sloth, he'll use those reluctant claws to deal the third homegrown fan favorite that will be listed forever in the lowlight of his obituary.

 

When Kennedy said the Red Sox "will make the right decision" on Devers, he meant they won't dump him until after Christmas. Not when there's still a chance someone might buy '23 tickets for stocking stuffers...

[notin]

I just think Dalbec is the better fit because he can play more positions. Hosmer is 1B/DH only. If Yoshida/LHB is the primary a DH and Casas/LHB is the primary 1B, there is no reason to keep Hosmer/LHB around.

 

Was there ever?

 

Hosmer has one useful skill; the ability to play baseball for minimum wage (with SD picking up the tab)…

[Old Red]

The always phlegmatic Bloom will wait until the last possible second to trade Devers, soliciting and contemplating the best possible package from 29 other clubs to end the the worst possible winter that defined his career. Then, moving like a sloth, he'll use those reluctant claws to deal the third homegrown fan favorite that will be listed forever in the lowlight of his obituary.

 

When Kennedy said the Red Sox "will make the right decision" on Devers, he meant they won't dump him until after Christmas. Not when there's still a chance someone might buy '23 tickets for stocking stuffers...

 

I think Bloom is facing that same problem that he faced at the trade deadline last year. He’s looking for that 3rd option in the fork in the road.

[moonslav59]

I don’t mind if they sign him during ST…

 

Spier said he think it happens in ST'ing or may never happen.

 

I want Devers, almost as much as I wanted Betts, but we have to trade him, if we don't lock him up by opening day.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Spier said he think it happens in ST'ing or may never happen.

 

I want Devers, almost as much as I wanted Betts, but we have to trade him, if we don't lock him up by opening day.

 

They'll never give him the years and he probably won't sign for any number these guys calculate he's worth, anyway.

 

But just be ready to read and type futile speculations and disillusions on this forum and elsewhere for the next three months, because they will certainly draw it out as painfully long as possible.

[mvp 78]

They'll never give him the years and he probably won't sign for any number these guys calculate he's worth, anyway.

 

But just be ready to read and type futile speculations and disillusions on this forum and elsewhere for the next three months, because they will certainly draw it out as painfully long as possible.

 

According to BTV, Devers still has value to return a top 100 prospect like Casas. I think I'd rather go the one for one route than the grab bag route that Bloom has done in the past.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

According to BTV, Devers still has value to return a top 100 prospect like Casas. I think I'd rather go the one for one route than the grab bag route that Bloom has done in the past.

 

I still say the Mets are the bets -- for those who think they'll never give up one of their top-10s, why not? They're in total go-for-it-NOW mode, can easily extend Devers to a contract through 2050, and who cares if they lose a prospect, when Cohen can just buy more established players at the same positions next year.

[S5Dewey]

Welcome to the world of the Minnesota Twins!

[moonslav59]

According to BTV, Devers still has value to return a top 100 prospect like Casas. I think I'd rather go the one for one route than the grab bag route that Bloom has done in the past.

 

Bloom has never traded a top player for just prospects, and even his trades of good players almost always involved a major league player and prospects. Granted, sometimes the major league player did not have plus value, but the one example that really fits your point is the Beni trade for 4 prospects and Cordero. The Renfroe trade kinda fits and brought us a negative value ML'er and 2 prospects.

 

Betts got us a ML'er (Verdugo) and 2 prospects (Wong & Downs)

Workman and Hembree brought us Pivetta and prospect Seabold.

$$ for Ottavino got us German.

Vaz got us 2 prospects, so maybe that fits.

Groome got us Hosmer and 2 prospects.

 

I agree on any Devers trade. It should be for one highly ranked prospects not 2, 3 or 4 lesser ones. We need quality prospects not more quantity.

 

If the idea is to trade Devers for a prospect that is not ML ready, we might as well unload other players with value who see their control end in a 1-2 years- perhaps at the deadline (1 yr left: Kike & Brasier/ 2 years: Jansen, Martin, Verdugo, Pivetta, Arroyo & refsnyder)

[Bellhorn04]

Was there ever?

 

Hosmer has one useful skill; the ability to play baseball for minimum wage (with SD picking up the tab)…

 

He also has a good OBP - .336 career, .334 in 2022 vs. MLB average of .312. I thought you liked OBP.

[Hugh2]

He also has a good OBP - .336 career, .334 in 2022 vs. MLB average of .312. I thought you liked OBP.

 

But what is the MLB average for a DH/1B?

[Bellhorn04]

But what is the MLB average for a DH/1B?

 

Very apt question.

 

2022 MLB

 

1B .324

DH .313

[moonslav59]

But what is the MLB average for a DH/1B?

 

2022 MLB per fangraphs:

 

1B: .246/.320/.410/.730

 

DH: .245/.319/.413/.732

[notin]

He also has a good OBP - .336 career, .334 in 2022 vs. MLB average of .312. I thought you liked OBP.

 

He’s meh.

 

OPS is a much, much better yardstick than OBP, which is a much better yardstick than the borderline useless BA…

[mvp 78]

Welcome to the world of the Minnesota Twins!

 

The Mayor's Cup will be more important than ever.

[mvp 78]

Bloom has never traded a top player for just prospects

 

He's only traded one top player in Betts from my recollection.

 

If you include Beni, you'll also have to include Christian Vazquez who has a similar career fWAR and playing time.

[Bellhorn04]

He’s meh.

 

OPS is a much, much better yardstick than OBP, which is a much better yardstick than the borderline useless BA…

 

I'm well aware OPS is better. I seem to remember you extolling the virtues of OBP recently.