A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

Zack Kelly. Zach Taylor is a former US President who reportedly died of mysterious causes and was not known for having any sort of out pitch.

 

Kelly, with no political ambitions, looked good but the sample size is very limited.

Edited December 3, 2022 by notin

[Hugh2]

I mean, If you were hired by an organization to be director of operations/GM and you looked at the teams history of developing pitchers vs developing hitters wouldnt you go position player too?

 

You can always trade from depth, early reports on Romero is he’s a stud, oh no big problem. If Mayer is the real deal too you can always trade Romero for something you need OR move him to another position.

 

 

I’m actually very optimistic about the bullpen, almost never does everything break right but here are a few things that could happen only looking inside the organization.

 

Barnes, from August 1st on last year he looked like his old self. If that carries into 2023 the bullpen looks much better.

 

Josh Taylor is back and healthy and a very effective LHRP.

 

Schreiber has a 2023 that looks very much like his 2022.

 

Zach Taylor looks good and showed a lot of promise during his call up to Boston. Does he emerge as a guy?

 

Houck - what is he? We know he is good, but If ge can take one more step forward as a 26 year old in a defined role could he become a lights out late inning arm? All the ingredient’s are there.

 

The young arms looking to come up mid season intrigue me much more this year than last year, minus Bello of course. Mata could be really really good in a pen, I’d also like to see the Sox transition some of these grungy starters into bullpen roles (like wink and Crawford).

 

This is NOT an argument against more bullpen moves. I just believe there is plenty of room for internal growth and that’s a good thing.

 

Lol I was half still on Josh Taylor. Good catch though

[notin]

Seems to me if the Sox want to play the market - and I have no idea if they do - then they should stock up on the high-priced bullpen arms, because even at their inflated rates, they never seem to require more than 2-3 years. Sign Jansen and two from Fulmer, Estevez and Rogers. And then deal Houck and Schreiber while both still make roughly league minimum. BTV accepts Houck plus Schreiber for Pablo Lopez.

 

That leaves the Sox with Sale, Paxton, Lopez, Whitlock, Pivetta and Bello for the rotation and Jansen, Martin, Rodriguez, Barnes, Taylor, Kelly, and two from Fulmer/Rogers/Estevez in the bullpen.

 

If budget becomes an issue, Andrus for SS and Gallo for RF make sense given the market buzz (or lack thereof) and that both, while inconsistent offensively, are at least both elite defensive players. (BTV also accepts trading Barnes to St. Louis for Paul DeJong, but I’m hesitant.)

 

Still need a catcher. And, frankly, an upgrade at DH over Hosmer/Dalbec. I also suspect Verdugo is on the market for obvious reasons…

[redsoxrules]

Bryan Reynolds requesting a trade. This would be worth a look for a inexpensive option

[mvp 78]

Bryan Reynolds requesting a trade. This would be worth a look for a inexpensive option

 

Depends on what Pirates want. Him requesting a trade maybe brings the value down a bit? IDK.

[mvp 78]

And $37mill AAV for FIVE YEARS seems like a lot of money for a guy whose pitched 156 IP total in the past two seasons. But here we are…

 

7.1 fWAR in those 150 innings. 7.1 x 8M = 57M in value in 150 innings. A little better value than the Martin signing IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

7.1 fWAR in those 150 innings. 7.1 x 8M = 57M in value in 150 innings. A little better value than the Martin signing IMO.

 

It was also 57M in value in 2 seasons.

[mvp 78]

It was also 57M in value in 2 seasons.

 

Because he was injured. If he stays healthy, he’ll be good.

[notin]

7.1 fWAR in those 150 innings. 7.1 x 8M = 57M in value in 150 innings. A little better value than the Martin signing IMO.

 

Except Martin won’t keep the Sox from extending anyone…

[notin]

Because he was injured. If he stays healthy, he’ll be good.

 

He gets injured a lot lately…

[mvp 78]

Except Martin won’t keep the Sox from extending anyone…

 

Sox haven’t shown that the will extend anyone lately.

[Old Red]

Bryan Reynolds requesting a trade. This would be worth a look for a inexpensive option

 

Inexpensive option? You would have to give up something pretty good to get him, and then if you got him you would have to lock him up long term, so in the end it would be costly.

[moonslav59]

Sox haven’t shown that the will extend anyone lately.

 

Bogey (w opt out), Sale, Nate, Pearce, Perez, Kike

 

Nobody real big since Bogey, Sale & Nate.

[Hugh2]

Bogey (w opt out), Sale, Nate, Pearce, Perez, Kike

 

Nobody real big since Bogey, Sale & Nate.

 

Whitlock

[moonslav59]

Whitlock

 

Yup.

 

He's a good one, too!

[Bellhorn04]

Because he was injured. If he stays healthy, he’ll be good.

 

He's one of the best in the game. But the recent injuries and his age make it risky. I think most observers expected him to get a 3 year deal. The Rangers blew that projection away.

[moonslav59]

He's one of the best in the game. But the recent injuries and his age make it risky. I think most observers expected him to get a 3 year deal. The Rangers blew that projection away.

 

I wonder if they are bidding against themselves, recently. I doubt anyone else would come close to that, but who knows?

[Hugh2]

He's one of the best in the game. But the recent injuries and his age make it risky. I think most observers expected him to get a 3 year deal. The Rangers blew that projection away.

 

It only takes one, which is why most FA deals always feel like an overpay. There’s nothing wrong with being rational and trying to maximize value but at some point you at least have to be the least rational guy by going an extra year or paying a few million a more than the other team if you want to bring in premium players.

 

Maybe Bloom has it in him and has never been in this position before or maybe he really doesn’t want to make these types of moves. If it’s the later I hope Henry tells Bloom to grow some balls and make a splash. Or perhaps the problem is all Henry, this off-season will be very telling.

[notin]

I wonder if they are bidding against themselves, recently. I doubt anyone else would come close to that, but who knows?

 

That’sa question for Corey Seager’s agent…

[Hugh2]

I wonder if they are bidding against themselves, recently. I doubt anyone else would come close to that, but who knows?

 

Right now we don’t know. But I would t be surprised if we learn of one other team, maybe a few other teams offering DeGrom the same money but at 4 years. Texas upped the Anti and won the deal.

 

I have a hard time believing a team offering him 4 wouldn’t go 5, maybe they did but wanted less AAV. If we learn the answer to these questions….it may not be tonight.

[moonslav59]

Right now we don’t know. But I would t be surprised if we learn of one other team, maybe a few other teams offering DeGrom the same money but at 4 years. Texas upped the Anti and won the deal.

 

I have a hard time believing a team offering him 4 wouldn’t go 5, maybe they did but wanted less AAV. If we learn the answer to these questions….it may not be tonight.

 

Maybe the team offering him 4 had a hard time going from 3 to 4, and 5 was just too much.

[mvp 78]

He's one of the best in the game. But the recent injuries and his age make it risky. I think most observers expected him to get a 3 year deal. The Rangers blew that projection away.

 

They wanted him and got him to sign before the meetings. He has the potential to be the best pitcher in the game for the next 3 years at least.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They wanted him and got him to sign before the meetings. He has the potential to be the best pitcher in the game for the next 3 years at least.

 

Looks like deGrom agreed to an incentive-based contract that pays less if he's injured. Ask the Red Sox how that turned out with Lackey...

[notin]

Looks like deGrom agreed to an incentive-based contract that pays less if he's injured. Ask the Red Sox how that turned out with Lackey...

 

What went wrong with the Lackey deal?

[Bellhorn04]

Looks like deGrom agreed to an incentive-based contract that pays less if he's injured. Ask the Red Sox how that turned out with Lackey...

 

It looks to me like DeGrom is guaranteed $185 mill and the injury stuff only affects a possible option for a 6th year. It looks much more player-friendly than the clause in Lackey's deal.

[notin]

It looks to me like DeGrom is guaranteed $185 mill and the injury stuff only affects a possible option for a 6th year. It looks much more player-friendly than the clause in Lackey's deal.

 

It’s very hard to call a deal that pays a pitcher a yearly salary of $37mill when, at most, he will pitch in 33 games, as anything other than “player friendly.”

 

They could have a clause in there that if he loses to the Marlins, he has to eat a heaping bowl of moose doots for breakfast. And it would still be player-friendly…

[Bobe2]

Rays outbid Sox for phillys pitcher Zack Eflin

[Hugh2]

Rays outbid Sox for phillys pitcher Zack Eflin

 

They didn’t outbid, they matched our offer.

 

That’s old news now. Do try to keep up

[Hugh2]

What went wrong with the Lackey deal?

 

Nothing, he won us a World Series in 2013, threw a hissy fit about a contract HE signed and then we traded him for Joe Kelly. Who was an integral part of the 2018 campaign

[Bellhorn04]

It’s very hard to call a deal that pays a pitcher a yearly salary of $37mill when, at most, he will pitch in 33 games, as anything other than “player friendly.”

 

They could have a clause in there that if he loses to the Marlins, he has to eat a heaping bowl of moose doots for breakfast. And it would still be player-friendly…

 

You're right, it's a humorous concept in this case...

 

Lackey's deal was somewhat unusual in that he was forced to play a year at minimum wage if the injury clause kicked in, which did in fact happen, the Cards getting the benefit of it while we got some value from Joe Kelly and got stuck paying Allen Craig a chunk of change for nothing. Not Ben's finest moment.