A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

If projections are any indication, Contreras is less likely to inhibit upping Devers than any of Swanson, Bogaerts , Turner and Correa…

 

Why? Shouldn't re-signing Bogey help to re-sign Raffy?

[mvp 78]

I've always believed a great defensive catcher, who handles the staff very well, along with a superb defensive SS greatly improves a team's chance of winning. You can win without one or maybe both, but it's very hard.

 

Contreras isn't a great defensive catcher. Adequate? Sure.

Edited November 30, 2022 by mvp 78

[moonslav59]

Contreras isn't a great defensive catcher. Adequate? Sure.

 

He must not be, if he was going to back up Maldonado in Houston.

 

My main question is about how he handles a staff.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He must not be, if he was going to back up Maldonado in Houston.

 

My main question is about how he handles a staff.

 

You answered your own question about Maldonado -- the Houston staff swears by him, and no matter what his batting average, Dusty wasn't going to replace him. He even said Vaz could pinch hit for Maldonado in late innings after the trade... as if that was the main reason they got him. Don't forget, Vazquez is well-respected around in the league (at least according to a manager/coach poll that named him best in AL last year).

[moonslav59]

You answered your own question about Maldonado -- the Houston staff swears by him, and no matter what his batting average, Dusty wasn't going to replace him. He even said Vaz could pinch hit for Maldonado in late innings after the trade... as if that was the main reason they got him. Don't forget, Vazquez is well-respected around in the league (at least according to a manager/coach poll that named him best in AL last year).

 

It's a winning philosophy- one I have believed in since the VTek-Posada years.

[mvp 78]

He must not be, if he was going to back up Maldonado in Houston.

 

My main question is about how he handles a staff.

 

From Jeff Passan:

 

Multiple teams, sources said, worry about Contreras — who is not known for his game-calling acumen — meshing with a new pitching staff on the fly. The number of teams with World Series aspirations that could use a catching upgrade isn’t huge, but the New York Mets and Houston Astros have been in contact with the Cubs about the 30-year-old free agent-to-be, sources said, and the San Francisco Giants are poking around on catching options, too. Other teams could seek Contreras more as a bat with the ability to play catcher rather than acquiring him as a primary backstop.

[moonslav59]

From Jeff Passan:

 

Multiple teams, sources said, worry about Contreras — who is not known for his game-calling acumen — meshing with a new pitching staff on the fly. The number of teams with World Series aspirations that could use a catching upgrade isn’t huge, but the New York Mets and Houston Astros have been in contact with the Cubs about the 30-year-old free agent-to-be, sources said, and the San Francisco Giants are poking around on catching options, too. Other teams could seek Contreras more as a bat with the ability to play catcher rather than acquiring him as a primary backstop.

 

That's enough to convince me to suggest we pass.

[mvp 78]

That's enough to convince me to suggest we pass.

 

If he was an above average Catcher, he'd be worth 20M, but a lot of the value is tied up in his bat. It'd be a very underwhelming replacement for the holes this team has.

[moonslav59]

If he was an above average Catcher, he'd be worth 20M, but a lot of the value is tied up in his bat. It'd be a very underwhelming replacement for the holes this team has.

 

Agreed. We'd really be signing him as a DH and maybe back-up catcher.

[mvp 78]

Now that there will be MassMutual patches on the Sox jerseys, what does the MassMutual CEO have to say about the partnership?

 

@MikeSilvermanBB

Here's Crandall's quote: "Listen, I'd love for the Red Sox to do much, much, much better in 2023 than they did in 2022 – but not that much better. Because, I hate to say it as a Yankee fan born in New York City, second place is not a bad place to be."

[moonslav59]

Now that there will be MassMutual patches on the Sox jerseys, what does the MassMutual CEO have to say about the partnership?

 

@MikeSilvermanBB

Here's Crandall's quote: "Listen, I'd love for the Red Sox to do much, much, much better in 2023 than they did in 2022 – but not that much better. Because, I hate to say it as a Yankee fan born in New York City, second place is not a bad place to be."

 

Sale needs to cut up the patches.

[dgalehouse]

What do they do when somebody from the organization dies? Put a patch over the Mass Mutual patch? Or next to it?

[moonslav59]

What do they do when somebody from the organization dies? Put a patch over the Mass Mutual patch? Or next to it?

 

No, they put a patch over an eye, then file insurance claims after running into each other.

[Hugh2]

No matter what our opinions are, isn’t there a little bit of every Sox fan that wants to see Leonardo DiCaprio go inside John Henry’s head and tell him he needs to spend like he’s the Dodgers. I’ll dream big for a minute.

 

Heck, they could hypothetically resign Bogaerts, #2/3 pitcher, and Judge and still reset and stay big next offseason.

 

Judge $43

Bogaerts $27

Senga $17

 

You’d probably have to trade for a bullpen arm. If John Henry told you you had to make a big splash this off-season how are you spending $90 million dollars?

[mvp 78]

I'll use the FanGraphs AAV if listed:

 

Contreras 17

Senga 17

Xander 28

Kluber 11

Conforto 12

 

Remaining 5 goes towards an extension with Raffy.

[moonslav59]

No matter what our opinions are, isn’t there a little bit of every Sox fan that wants to see Leonardo DiCaprio go inside John Henry’s head and tell him he needs to spend like he’s the Dodgers. I’ll dream big for a minute.

 

Heck, they could hypothetically resign Bogaerts, #2/3 pitcher, and Judge and still reset and stay big next offseason.

 

Judge $43

Bogaerts $27

Senga $17

 

You’d probably have to trade for a bullpen arm. If John Henry told you you had to make a big splash this off-season how are you spending $90 million dollars?

 

I'd rather see quality over quantity, finally, and this looks impressive.

 

I might go...

 

Correa 32

Nimmo 20

Senga 17

Taillon 12

Rogers 8 or Estevez + Fulmer

 

(Trade for another pen arm and maybe catcher)

[harmony]

The first-ever MLB Draft lottery will take place on Tuesday, December 6, at the Winter Meetings in San Diego.

 

2023 MLB Draft order

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The order for the first 18 picks in the 2023 MLB Draft won't be determined until the first-ever Draft lottery, which will take place on Tuesday, December 6, at the Winter Meetings in San Diego. But the rest of the first round has fallen into place. Teams picked in reverse

 

FWIW the Seattle Mariners are likely to have the No. 22 and No. 29 picks, the only franchise with two selections in the Top 30. Under the new CBA, Seattle received a bonus draft pick at the end of the first round when Julio Rodriguez was named AL Rookie of the Year after being rostered since Opening Day.

One commentator thinks the Seattle Mariners might have the 22nd, 29th and 30th picks of the June 2023 draft:

 

https://www.marinertalk.com/download/file.php?id=6705&mode=view

 

The latter two picks would be tradeable.

[harmony]

I'd rather see quality over quantity, finally, and this looks impressive.

 

I might go...

 

Correa 32

Nimmo 20

Senga 17

Taillon 12

Rogers 8 or Estevez + Fulmer

 

(Trade for another pen arm and maybe catcher)

Would anyone prefer a trade for Seattle righthander Chris Flexen at a 2023 salary of $8 million over a multiyear contract for Jameson Taillon at an AAV of $12 million (or the $14 million projected at MLB Trade Rumors)?

 

Compare the stats over the past two seasons for righthanders Taillon, Taijuan Walker and Flexen:

 

JT 321.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 100 ERA+, 4.2 fWAR, 3.5 bWAR

TW 316.2 IP, 3.98 ERA, 99 ERA+, 3.9 fWAR, 3.1 bWAR

CF 317.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.7 fWAR, 4.7 bWAR

 

The Seattle Mariners reportedly are shopping Flexen, who is two years younger than Walker and two-and-a-half years younger than Taillon. Flexen lost some luster in August when Luis Castillo bumped Flexen from the Seattle rotation. Despite the demotion Flexen matched Taillon’s 2022 bWAR of 1.3.

 

Many will point to Flexen’s drop in fWAR from 3.0 in 2021 to 0.7 in 2022. However, Walker has never posted an fWAR above 2.5 and Taillon has not exceeded 2.3 fWAR since 2018.

 

MLB Trade Rumors projects Taillon and Walker with four-year contracts in free agency, Taillon at $56 million and Walker at $52 million.

 

Flexen is guaranteed a 2023 salary of $8 million in what MLB Trade Rumors reports is his final year of team control (despite Flexen currently sitting on two years and 107 days of MLB service).

[notin]

Would anyone prefer a trade for Seattle righthander Chris Flexen at a 2023 salary of $8 million over a multiyear contract for Jameson Taillon at an AAV of $12 million (or the $14 million projected at MLB Trade Rumors)?

 

Compare the stats over the past two seasons for righthanders Taillon, Taijuan Walker and Flexen:

 

JT 321.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 100 ERA+, 4.2 fWAR, 3.5 bWAR

TW 316.2 IP, 3.98 ERA, 99 ERA+, 3.9 fWAR, 3.1 bWAR

CF 317.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.7 fWAR, 4.7 bWAR

 

The Seattle Mariners reportedly are shopping Flexen, who is two years younger than Walker and two-and-a-half years younger than Taillon. Flexen lost some luster in August when Luis Castillo bumped Flexen from the Seattle rotation. Despite the demotion Flexen matched Taillon’s 2022 bWAR of 1.3.

 

Many will point to Flexen’s drop in fWAR from 3.0 in 2021 to 0.7 in 2022. However, Walker has never posted an fWAR above 2.5 and Taillon has not exceeded 2.3 fWAR since 2018.

 

MLB Trade Rumors projects Taillon and Walker with four-year contracts in free agency, Taillon at $56 million and Walker at $52 million.

 

Flexen is guaranteed a 2023 salary of $8 million in what MLB Trade Rumors reports is his final year of team control (despite Flexen currently sitting on two years and 107 days of MLB service).

 

Sure let’s do this dance again.

 

Notin: The Red Sox should absolutely be interested in Flexen. His surplus value on BTV is $0.3million, and presumably he will be costlier than that. But the Sox should and will pay for the price. Also the Sox should be all over Winker at his $1.8mill surplus value.

 

Harmony: Actually the Red Sox don’t have anything the Mariners want.

 

Annnnd scene!

[Hugh2]

Would anyone prefer a trade for Seattle righthander Chris Flexen at a 2023 salary of $8 million over a multiyear contract for Jameson Taillon at an AAV of $12 million (or the $14 million projected at MLB Trade Rumors)?

 

Compare the stats over the past two seasons for righthanders Taillon, Taijuan Walker and Flexen:

 

JT 321.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 100 ERA+, 4.2 fWAR, 3.5 bWAR

TW 316.2 IP, 3.98 ERA, 99 ERA+, 3.9 fWAR, 3.1 bWAR

CF 317.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.7 fWAR, 4.7 bWAR

 

The Seattle Mariners reportedly are shopping Flexen, who is two years younger than Walker and two-and-a-half years younger than Taillon. Flexen lost some luster in August when Luis Castillo bumped Flexen from the Seattle rotation. Despite the demotion Flexen matched Taillon’s 2022 bWAR of 1.3.

 

Many will point to Flexen’s drop in fWAR from 3.0 in 2021 to 0.7 in 2022. However, Walker has never posted an fWAR above 2.5 and Taillon has not exceeded 2.3 fWAR since 2018.

 

MLB Trade Rumors projects Taillon and Walker with four-year contracts in free agency, Taillon at $56 million and Walker at $52 million.

 

Flexen is guaranteed a 2023 salary of $8 million in what MLB Trade Rumors reports is his final year of team control (despite Flexen currently sitting on two years and 107 days of MLB service).

 

Everything comes down to price. What are the Mariners asking for?

[moonslav59]

Would anyone prefer a trade for Seattle righthander Chris Flexen at a 2023 salary of $8 million over a multiyear contract for Jameson Taillon at an AAV of $12 million (or the $14 million projected at MLB Trade Rumors)?

 

Compare the stats over the past two seasons for righthanders Taillon, Taijuan Walker and Flexen:

 

JT 321.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 100 ERA+, 4.2 fWAR, 3.5 bWAR

TW 316.2 IP, 3.98 ERA, 99 ERA+, 3.9 fWAR, 3.1 bWAR

CF 317.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.7 fWAR, 4.7 bWAR

 

The Seattle Mariners reportedly are shopping Flexen, who is two years younger than Walker and two-and-a-half years younger than Taillon. Flexen lost some luster in August when Luis Castillo bumped Flexen from the Seattle rotation. Despite the demotion Flexen matched Taillon’s 2022 bWAR of 1.3.

 

Many will point to Flexen’s drop in fWAR from 3.0 in 2021 to 0.7 in 2022. However, Walker has never posted an fWAR above 2.5 and Taillon has not exceeded 2.3 fWAR since 2018.

 

MLB Trade Rumors projects Taillon and Walker with four-year contracts in free agency, Taillon at $56 million and Walker at $52 million.

 

Flexen is guaranteed a 2023 salary of $8 million in what MLB Trade Rumors reports is his final year of team control (despite Flexen currently sitting on two years and 107 days of MLB service).

 

I'd be interested. Give us Winker, too. Who do you see on BTV with near equal value that you'd want in return?

[moonslav59]

Everything comes down to price. What are the Mariners asking for?

 

Are they looking for non 40 man roster prospects to open slots for other additions, or do they want ML talent at positions of higher need?

[mvp 78]

Would anyone prefer a trade for Seattle righthander Chris Flexen at a 2023 salary of $8 million over a multiyear contract for Jameson Taillon at an AAV of $12 million (or the $14 million projected at MLB Trade Rumors)?

 

Compare the stats over the past two seasons for righthanders Taillon, Taijuan Walker and Flexen:

 

JT 321.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 100 ERA+, 4.2 fWAR, 3.5 bWAR

TW 316.2 IP, 3.98 ERA, 99 ERA+, 3.9 fWAR, 3.1 bWAR

CF 317.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.7 fWAR, 4.7 bWAR

 

I think you've mentioned this before. I'm out on Walker. He's basically a 5th starter at this point. Taillon has 2 upside, but generally pitches like a 3-4. The issue with trading for Flexen is that you have to give up something to get him whereas Taillon is just money. It really just depends on what the trade is. If it was an apples v apples decision, most people would lean towards Flexen. I also believe Taillon is going to get more than $12M AAV.

[mvp 78]

Sure let’s do this dance again.

 

Notin: The Red Sox should absolutely be interested in Flexen. His surplus value on BTV is $0.3million, and presumably he will be costlier than that. But the Sox should and will pay for the price. Also the Sox should be all over Winker at his $1.8mill surplus value.

 

Harmony: Actually the Red Sox don’t have anything the Mariners want.

Annnnd scene!

 

Or not.

[Bellhorn04]

I think you've mentioned this before. I'm out on Walker. He's basically a 5th starter at this point.

 

He's a little better than that. If he's average he's a number 3.

[mvp 78]

He's a little better than that. If he's average he's a number 3.

 

When looking at his underlying metrics, I think his future potential is closer to a 5th starter.

 

Bottom 25% in Hard Hit and EV. Bottom 33% in K and whiff. Nearly all of his metrics are bottom 50%. His only decent rate is bb% which is still just top 39th percentile. Not great. I think he's well below average.

[Bellhorn04]

When looking at his underlying metrics, I think his future potential is closer to a 5th starter.

 

Bottom 25% in Hard Hit and EV. Bottom 33% in K and whiff. Nearly all of his metrics are bottom 50%. His only decent rate is bb% which is still just top 39th percentile. Not great. I think he's well below average.

 

So how did he register a 2.5 fWAR this year? Stats are only getting more confoosing.

[Bellhorn04]

mvp has stats that make Walker look like a bum. FanGraphs says he was above average this year.

 

I'm about ready to throw in with Old Red and Denny G. and start talking W-L record, ERA and eye test...

[mvp 78]

So how did he register a 2.5 fWAR this year? Stats are only getting more confoosing.

 

His HR/9 was nearly cut in half. Best LOB% for a full season. His GB% increased and his IFFB% increased. With the movement away from the shift, will the hard hit ground ball be more likely to get through in 2023? People are teeing off on Walker, but not hitting it in the air ATM.

 

You can like the guys you like and it's fine. I just don't think he's a guy I would trust long term.

[moonslav59]

mvp has stats that make Walker look like a bum. FanGraphs says he was above average this year.

 

I'm about ready to throw in with Old Red and Denny G. and start talking W-L record, ERA and eye test...

 

WAR is supposed to be all encompassing, but there is always some new shiny tool that comes along.

 

Also, WAR just values what you produced. It does not always look at how you did it. How much luck was involved?

 

It also is not meant to predict what is to come.