A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Hugh2]

You're right, it's a humorous concept in this case...

 

Lackey's deal was somewhat unusual in that he was forced to play a year at minimum wage if the injury clause kicked in, which did in fact happen, the Cards getting the benefit of it while we got some value from Joe Kelly and got stuck paying Allen Craig a chunk of change for nothing. Not Ben's finest moment.

 

It’s not like the trade stipulated we had to start Allen Craig. In the end I was happy with what we got from Joe Kelly.

 

From a pure value stand point STL probably edges that trade out. But that was almost entirely in his 2015 campaign. A year Boston sucked. I doubt lackey would have moved the needle much. Joe Kelly was a big part of that 2018 playoff run.

 

In a perfect world I would have liked Lackey to stay here and honor his contract. But I ain’t mad, it worked out for everyone.

[notin]

Nothing, he won us a World Series in 2013, threw a hissy fit about a contract HE signed and then we traded him for Joe Kelly. Who was an integral part of the 2018 campaign

 

No. Lackey did not throw a hissy fit.

 

Ken Rosenthal wrote a blurb about Lackey in which he was talking about a contract extension for Lackey, and HYPOTHETICALLY, as in WITHOUT RALKING TO LACKEY AT ALL, mentioned Lackey’s only way out of the minimum wage year was to retire, and this was his only leverage in a contract extension. And then Rosenthal went on to say that he ultimately expected both sides to agree on a two year extension.

 

An illiterate motherf***er named Tony Massarotti apparently read this article and wrote his own version that said - and I am quoting here - “According to Ken Rosenthal, John Lackey has threatened to retire over playing for minimum wage.”

 

Lackey never threw a fit. The whole controversy came about because Tony Massarotti can’t read…

[Bellhorn04]

No. Lackey did not throw a hissy fit.

 

Ken Rosenthal wrote a blurb about Lackey in which he was talking about a contract extension for Lackey, and HYPOTHETICALLY, as in WITHOUT RALKING TO LACKEY AT ALL, mentioned Lackey’s only way out of the minimum wage year was to retire, and this was his only leverage in a contract extension. And then Rosenthal went on to say that he ultimately expected both sides to agree on a two year extension.

 

An illiterate motherf***er named Tony Massarotti apparently read this article and wrote his own version that said - and I am quoting here - “According to Ken Rosenthal, John Lackey has threatened to retire over playing for minimum wage.”

 

Lackey never threw a fit. The whole controversy came about because Tony Massarotti can’t read…

 

Lackey never came out and said he wouldn't honor the injury clause year with the Red Sox, but he did say some fuzzy things when asked about it.

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/8/14/5993697/john-lackey-and-the-propriety-of-holding-out-retirement-lackey-clause

 

"It's definitely something I’ll have to think about at the end of the season, whether I want to keep going, whether ‘€¦ ," Lackey trailed off. "There will be a lot of things to consider."

[notin]

Lackey never came out and said he wouldn't honor the injury clause year with the Red Sox, but he did say some fuzzy things when asked about it.

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/8/14/5993697/john-lackey-and-the-propriety-of-holding-out-retirement-lackey-clause

 

"It's definitely something I’ll have to think about at the end of the season, whether I want to keep going, whether ‘€¦ ," Lackey trailed off. "There will be a lot of things to consider."

 

But the whole thing originated out of a hypothetical scenario Rosenthal dreamed up and then Massarotti - through either malice or sheer stupidity or both - then foisted off on everyone as if it was a done deal…

[moonslav59]

The fact is, we don't get Kelly and Craig (who still had some promise at 1B) without that clause.

 

At the time, I had hoped we'd traded most of our rotation for near ML ready prospects, like we did in the Miller for ERod trade.

 

The Lester trade brought us Cespedes who we morphed into Porcello.

 

Peavy got us Escobar & Hembree.

 

Doubront got us Marco Hernandez.

 

[Bellhorn04]

The fact is, we don't get Kelly and Craig (who still had some promise at 1B) without that clause.

 

Craig was apparently damaged goods, and I think we had to pay him $17 million or something like that. Taking Craig instead of a prospect made the trade a questionable one at best.

[harmony]

How do you win organization of the year with a crappy farm?

Perhaps Baseball America honors a franchise that does not needlessly hoard prospects but instead prudently spends prospect capital to improve the team.

[moonslav59]

Craig was apparently damaged goods, and I think we had to pay him $17 million or something like that. Taking Craig instead of a prospect made the trade a questionable one at best.

 

I think we knew he was hurt, but we expected him to recover, at some point, to a higher level than he ever came close to.

 

He might have been viewed as a dump that allowed us to get Kelly, who had a very good outlook, at the time.

[moonslav59]

Perhaps Baseball America honors a franchise that does not needlessly hoard prospects but instead prudently spends prospect capital to improve the team.

 

It looks that way, but I would expect the current farm ranking to be a significant part of the rubric.

 

Maybe they link farm with recent grads into one grade.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Perhaps Baseball America honors a franchise that does not needlessly hoard prospects but instead prudently spends prospect capital to improve the team.

 

If describing Boston in 2022, needlessly is a needless word.

 

The M's are in go-for-now mode, and not just because they're the only team never to play in a World Series. They have a deep pitching rotation in place, with some controllable studs, and more importantly, coinciding with young stars at positions. The time was ripe for a Castillo trade.

 

Boston finished last, and has holes all over the roster. The Sox may have a ways to go before they're ready to deal their own #1, 3 and 5 prospects for one pitcher. Remember, when they traded for Chris Sale, they were already a first-place team.

[harmony]

It looks that way, but I would expect the current farm ranking to be a significant part of the rubric.

 

Maybe they link farm with recent grads into one grade.

Prospect rankings typically rank a player higher as the developing player nears the MLB level.

 

The Seattle front office reportedly likes its current farm system where three of the top four prospects (and 6 of top 11) have not reached their 20th birthdays. Their national rankings will be updated as these young prospects develop ... or not.

[moonslav59]

Prospect rankings typically rank a player higher as the developing player nears the MLB level.

 

The Seattle front office reportedly likes its current farm system where three of the top four prospects (and 6 of top 11) have not reached their 20th birthdays. Their national rankings will be updated as these young prospects develop ... or not.

 

Many teams can say the same. The Sox have...

 

3. Bleis (18) a 5 tool stud.

 

7. Romero (18) looking like a steal in the '22 draft.

 

9. Anthony (19) looking like possibly the steal of the second round '22 draft.

 

10. Perales (19) showing great stuff.

 

15. Jordan (19) .808 OPS in '22

 

19. Rodriguez-Cruz moving up the rankings by leaps and bounds

 

21. Cutter Coffey (18) and Brooks Brannon (30) might surprise.

 

Plus, #5 Yorke, #11 Paulino, #12 Wikelman & #16 Bonaci who all just turned 20.

[moonslav59]

If describing Boston in 2022, needlessly is a needless word.

 

The M's are in go-for-now mode, and not just because they're the only team never to play in a World Series. They have a deep pitching rotation in place, with some controllable studs, and more importantly, coinciding with young stars at positions. The time was ripe for a Castillo trade.

 

Boston finished last, and has holes all over the roster. The Sox may have a ways to go before they're ready to deal their own #1, 3 and 5 prospects for one pitcher. Remember, when they traded for Chris Sale, they were already a first-place team.

 

Agreed, and that is why I think the never shy GM might have one more big splash signing or trade left in him.

 

They have made a couple 2 for one trades and have room of the roster to add at least one more stud. While their pitching looks deep, they may try and make another 2 for one trade, perhaps involving Flexon and then sign one more significant FA.

[notin]

Craig was apparently damaged goods, and I think we had to pay him $17 million or something like that. Taking Craig instead of a prospect made the trade a questionable one at best.

 

I still think Will Middlebrooks injured Craig when he tripped him in the World Series…

[notin]

Perhaps Baseball America honors a franchise that does not needlessly hoard prospects but instead prudently spends prospect capital to improve the team.

 

Perhaps they are just honoring the Mariners as a brilliantly run franchise that knows how to draft prospects, develop them, build a team, time their trades, balance offense, defense and pitching. Basically they know how to do everything perfectly about how to run an entire MLB organization from top to bottom.

 

Everything except win…

[harmony]

Perhaps they are just honoring the Mariners as a brilliantly run franchise that knows how to draft prospects, develop them, build a team, time their trades, balance offense, defense and pitching. Basically they know how to do everything perfectly about how to run an entire MLB organization from top to bottom.

 

Everything except win…

Duly noted.

[moonslav59]

I still think Will Middlebrooks injured Craig when he tripped him in the World Series…

 

The thing that bothers me about that play is that Craig had a clear path from 3rd base to home, but he chose to push off the bag towards second base- not towards home- and chose a path right over Middy.

 

Yes, Middy lifted his lower legs that ended up tripping Craig. The 1:16-1:18 mark shows it best.

 

 

Had Craig just ran straight from 3rd to home, he wouldn't have needed to step over Middy. (And he'd have been safe.) To me, it was more his fault than Middy's but the rules still say Middy obstructed his way.

Edited December 4, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Who says no to this BTV approved trade rated "minor overpay" by the Sox?

 

To BOS

C Murphy (OAK)

SP Urquidy (HOU)

RP Stanek (HOU)

 

To HOU

C McGuire (BOS)

LF Verdugo (BOS)

 

To OAK

1B Casas (BOS)

SS Leon (HOU)

P Seabold (BOS)

P Murphy (BOS)

 

HOU gets it's two highest needs filled: LF & back-up C.

BOS gets a top C and good SP & RP.

OAK gets one big prospect and 3 second or third tier hopefuls.

 

My guess is OAK says no, first. Houston second. Sox would do it.

[notin]

 

The thing that bothers me about that play is that Craig had a clear path from 3rd base to home, but he chose to push off the bag towards second base- not towards home- and chose a path right over Middy.

 

Yes, Middy lifted his lower legs that ended up tripping Craig. The 1:16-1:18 mark shows it best.

 

 

Had Craig just ran straight from 3rd to home, he wouldn't have needed to step over Middy. (And he'd have been safe.) To me, it was more his fault than Middy's but the rules still say Middy obstructed his way.

 

It was a bang bang play with a bad throw, a diving third baseman and a slide.

 

Craig did nothing wrong. Middlebrooks absolutely tripped him. And Craig would have been safe if he hadn’t. The right call was made. It’s Middlebrooks job/responsibility/respect for the game to not obstruct the runner. It’s not Craig’s job to avoid the obstruction.

 

Miguel Tejada learned this the hard way, too

[moonslav59]

It was a bang bang play with a bad throw, a diving third baseman and a slide.

 

Craig did nothing wrong. Middlebrooks absolutely tripped him. And Craig would have been safe if he hadn’t. The right call was made. It’s Middlebrooks job/responsibility/respect for the game to not obstruct the runner. It’s not Craig’s job to avoid the obstruction.

 

Miguel Tejada learned this the hard way, too

 

Yes, I said the rules say "Middy obstructed his way," but I do think Craig chose to take a longer path to home by curving towards Middy and stepping over Middy, instead of taking the easier and straight line from 3B to home.

 

It was the right call. I also think Middy intentionally lifted his legs to trip Craig up, although intention is does not matter on that correct call.

 

Great play by Pedey.

 

If you notice on one angle, Craig hesitates a couple feet off second, then runs to 3rd. Had he not hesitated, maybe a throw is not made, of Middy could catch it.

 

Real tough way to lose a game.

[moonslav59]

The Marlins have stated they will not trade Alcantara, but are open to trading one of these guys. I know the offers will good and plentiful. To match or exceed other offers we may have to part with more than what we want or should do. To me, it's about years of control. I'm also wondering, if they would favor a deal that included a salary dump of OF'ers Soler and/or Garcia to clear some budget space for some minor FA signings, after the trade. Since we also need an OF'er, maybe a fit can be found. I'm not excited about Soler or Garcia and their contracts, but getting a solid SP'er at a low contractual cost would more than make-up for the overpays of an OF'er or two. Not having to sign a corner OF'er would also save us some money or trade capital. If we took both Soler and Garcia, maybe we send them Verdugo and possibly Barnes to lessen the financial hit on our budget.

 

Here is what MBLTR says about their other starters.

 

With that being said, the Marlins still boast a plethora of talent that may be moved as the team looks to boost the offensive production.

Pablo Lopez will likely be the next name floated in trade scenarios. The righty pitched to a strong 3.75 ERA in 180 innings with solid strikeout (23.6%), walk (7.2%), and ground ball rates (46.7%) during the 2022 season. Career-wise, Lopez has pitched 510 innings of 3.94 ERA baseball with a 23.2% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate, and 47.8% ground ball rate. Lopez, who turns 27 years old in March, is in his second year of arbitration eligibility and will be a free agent after the 2024 season. As of late July, the Marlins had yet to engage in extension discussions with Lopez’s management and were listening to trade offers for the hurler.

 

Jesus Luzardo is another potential Marlins’ trade candidate. Arriving from Oakland halfway through the 2021 season, Miami sent the hard-throwing lefty down to Triple-A to work on his mechanics before bringing him back to the major league roster as a starting pitcher. Despite missing over two months due to a left forearm strain, the 25-year-old was able to pitch 100 1/3 innings of 3.32 ERA baseball, with a hefty 30.0% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate, and 40.7% ground ball rate. As a super-two eligible player, Luzardo has four years of team control left before reaching free agency. However, despite his strong 2022 season, Luzardo stumbled to a 5.66 ERA in 154 1/3 innings across the 2020 and 2021 seasons, losing his role with the A’s staff before joining Miami.

 

Trevor Rogers is yet another talented and controllable Miami starter. A rookie All-Star in 2021, Rodgers experienced a sophomore slump with the Fish, pitching to a 5.47 ERA in 107 innings. Perhaps most troubling is that the lefty saw a sharp decline in his strikeout rate compared to his 2021 campaign (28.6% in 2021 compared to 22.2% in 2022). Nevertheless, the 25-year-old is only one year removed from a 2021 season in which he threw 133 innings of 2.64 ERA ball, finishing runner-up in Rookie of the Year voting to Reds’ second baseman Jonathan India. Rogers is only arbitration-eligible after the 2023 season, having missed this year’s super-two cutoff.

 

Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett are other starting pitchers that may find themselves the subject of trade talks as the offseason continues, but both of them have less than a year of service time and will likely factor into the Marlins’ future plans.y

 

There are other teams looking to move solid SP'ers, but the Marlins are the obvious and ready source.

 

BTV Numbers:

 

39 Lopez SP- 2 yrs of control

37 Rogers SP- 4 yrs

27 Luzardo SP- 4 yrs

18 Garrett SP- 6 yrs

10 Cabrera SP- 6 yrs

7.5 Berti UT- 3 yrs (can play RF and lead off)

3.8 Cooper 1B/DH- 1 year

-21 Soler LF- 2 yrs

-26 A Garcia RF- 4 yrs

 

Sox Numbers:

55 Mayer

41 Casas

35 Devers

34 Whitlock

33 Bello

19 Schreiber

19 Houck

15 Rafaela

14 Bleis

9 Romero

8 Yorke

7 Anthony, Coffey & McGuire

6 Duran, Verdugo, Walter & Lugo

5 Jordan, Paulino

4 Mata, Murphy

3 Hosmer, Seabold, McDonough, Bonaci, Wink

 

[moonslav59]

Assuming we have about $80M to spend, this winter, could this be what we see?

 

Fangraph Estimates:

 

$23.5 x 6 Swanson (or $10M x 2 Andrus. I doubt we go $28M x 6 Bogey or $32M x 8 Correa with no Hill)

$15M Nate (or 12M x 3 Taillon, $11M/1 Kluber or $16M x 3 Bassitt)

$12M x 2 Haniger (or maybe $12M/1 Conforto or $10M/1 Gallo)

$12M x 1 Jansen

$7.5x 2 Taylor Rogers

$5M x 1 Hill

 

That's just $75M

 

More Quality over Quantity:

$32M x 8 Correa

$16M x 3 Bassitt

$12M x 2 Haniger

$12M x 1 Jansen

$5M x 1 Hill

 

Total $77M (Could DFA Brasier and have $5M buffer)

 

Even more Quality (Ain't happening)

$37.5M x 8 Judge

$32M x 8 Correa

$12M x 3 Taillon

 

Total $81.5M (Could DFA Brasier and maybe trade some salary.)

 

What if we go quantity over quality, again?

 

$17.5M x 4 Contreras

$15M x 2 Nate

$12M x 1 Conforto (bridge to Rafaela)

$11M x 1 Kluber

$10M x 2 Andrus (bridge to Mayer)

$7.5 x 2 Taylor Rodgers

$5M x 2 Fulmer

 

Total: $78M

 

Edited December 5, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Bassitt reportedly seeking 4 year deal. (I thought 3 was pushing it, but He'll ge some GM to give it to him.)

 

Murphy is reportedly close to being traded, and not to the Braves. The Sox are rumored to be seeking a catcher upgrade. Hmmm....

 

I don't see us giving up Mayer, Casas, Bello or Bleis, but I doubt we can get him without one of those 4. Let's see.

 

Maybe we sign Contreras.

 

[mvp 78]

What if we go quantity over quality, again?

 

$17.5M x 4 Contreras

$15M x 2 Nate

$12M x 1 Conforto (bridge to Rafaela)

$11M x 1 Kluber

$10M x 2 Andrus (bridge to Mayer)

$7.5 x 2 Taylor Rodgers

$5M x 2 Fulmer

 

Total: $78M

 

 

Some of these deals are more reasonable to me. I don't think Conforto is "the bridge to Rafaela" that would be Kiké. I could see them giving Conforto a multi-year deal. Fulmer at 5M seems like a steal considering some of the relief contracts being handed out so far.

[moonslav59]

Some of these deals are more reasonable to me. I don't think Conforto is "the bridge to Rafaela" that would be Kiké. I could see them giving Conforto a multi-year deal. Fulmer at 5M seems like a steal considering some of the relief contracts being handed out so far.

 

Word is Conforto wants only a 1 year deal. He wants to reset his value.

 

I just guessed on Fulmer's amount, since fangraphs left his estimate blank. I'd pay him more than $5M x 2- maybe $7.5M x 2 or $6.5M x 3.

[mvp 78]

Word is Conforto wants only a 1 year deal. He wants to reset his value.

 

I just guessed on Fulmer's amount, since fangraphs left his estimate blank. I'd pay him more than $5M x 2- maybe $7.5M x 2 or $6.5M x 3.

 

I think Fulmer would be a good addition. I'd let Conforto try to earn a big payday. Maybe the Sox can get lightning in a bottle and deal him at the deadline if they are out of it.

[moonslav59]

I think Fulmer would be a good addition. I'd let Conforto try to earn a big payday. Maybe the Sox can get lightning in a bottle and deal him at the deadline if they are out of it.

 

I'd rather have Conforto for 1 than Gallo or Bellinger for 2-3 or Beni for 3-4.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Some of these deals are more reasonable to me. I don't think Conforto is "the bridge to Rafaela" that would be Kiké. I could see them giving Conforto a multi-year deal. Fulmer at 5M seems like a steal considering some of the relief contracts being handed out so far.

 

This makes sense considering Kike's one-year deal... unless he has to play shortstop in '23 -- which may really be 50-50 right now. Then maybe a Kiermaeir placeholder for Rafaela is the bridge. They'd still need Conforto or Haniger and probably both to replace the bats of Bogey and JD.

 

And that basically gives them the same offense as last year's cellar dwellers.

[notin]

This makes sense considering Kike's one-year deal... unless he has to play shortstop in '23 -- which may really be 50-50 right now. Then maybe a Kiermaeir placeholder for Rafaela is the bridge. They'd still need Conforto or Haniger and probably both to replace the bats of Bogey and JD.

 

And that basically gives them the same offense as last year's cellar dwellers.

 

Offense was not the primary reason for last year’s disappointing season…

[notin]

Yes, I said the rules say "Middy obstructed his way," but I do think Craig chose to take a longer path to home by curving towards Middy and stepping over Middy, instead of taking the easier and straight line from 3B to home.

 

It was the right call. I also think Middy intentionally lifted his legs to trip Craig up, although intention is does not matter on that correct call.

 

Great play by Pedey.

 

If you notice on one angle, Craig hesitates a couple feet off second, then runs to 3rd. Had he not hesitated, maybe a throw is not made, of Middy could catch it.

 

Real tough way to lose a game.

 

I thought at the time Middlebrooks tripped him up on purpose…