A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Hugh2]

If you're going to add the Barnes extension, you should put the Whitlock extension in there.

 

The Story contract is fine. Unless he gets a career ending injury, he should be worth the money even if he plays 2b. The do-overs would be Paxton, Richards, Diekman. Those were fairly low stakes though.

 

This is my sentiment, all those signs either aren't that bad, too early to Judge (Story) or it's too early to tell. Paxton could easily make his contract worth it by having a decent 2023, doesn't even have to be great just good. Diekman sucked but we actually got something for him.

 

Richards wasn't a great signing, but if ONLY he had signed Perez one year later.

[mvp 78]

This is what I was thinking as I posted this. I could see one of those guys growing into a bullpen role, but in that scenario, I wouldn't envision them getting more innings. About the same or a little less. I don't think they're 8th 9th inning guys. I think they COULD be good 7th/6th inning arms.

 

They threw a combined 147 innings last season. They'd have to get a lot of bulk innings at some point to get there.

[Hugh2]

They threw a combined 147 innings last season. They'd have to get a lot of bulk innings at some point to get there.

 

They'd have to be starting games to get there....which is why I said if those guys are getting more innings we are in trouble.

[moonslav59]

If we see more IP from Crawford or Winc it would be because one of them takes an unexpected leap forward or this team is in big trouble. But Whitlock, Houck, and Bello all have the chance to add more value in 2023 and if they can make a few good moves the pitching should be much better. Unfortunately, that shouldn't be too hard to do after 2022.

 

True on Wink & Crawford. We can't give them too long a leash, either, but with Mata, Walter, Murphy and maybe much more productive IP from Kelly and German we can take up some of the slack- no way can we take it all up.

 

Our best case scenario, which is highly unlikely:

 

Sale (2 GS) & Paxton replace Wacha (23 GS), Nate (20 GS) and Wink (14 GS).

Whitlock (9 GS) takes on Crawford's 12 GS and Seabold's 5 GS.

That leaves Bello (11 GS) to take up the slack: Houck 4 & Davis 3 plus a minor injury or two.

 

I don't see this as anything close to what we plan to happen. We need, at least one solid and dependable SP'er, hopefully a #1 or #2 type. This would hopefully allow Houck to stay in the pen, all year. Something good from Crawford, Wink, mata, Walter, Murphy or Seabold can help fill in the gaps, but if we have to go through 3-4 of these guys to find the one that works, it might be too much to overcome.

 

[moonslav59]

If you're going to add the Barnes extension, you should put the Whitlock extension in there.

 

The Story contract is fine. Unless he gets a career ending injury, he should be worth the money even if he plays 2b. The do-overs would be Paxton, Richards, Diekman. Those were fairly low stakes though.

 

Yes, I listed all contracts at $3M or more, so Whitlocks should have been included at $4.7 x 4.

 

Yes, the clear failures were not big money losses, and it shows the budget limits Bloom was under that forced these types of signings. Once search and find, in hindsight, pitchers that did better for $3M, $4M, $5M, $6M and $10M tha n the ones Bloom signed, but those types of signings are almost always shots in the dark. To be fair, that's kind of what Bloom was hired to do: find gems in the rough. He has found a few, but should we have expected more?

[notin]

If you're going to add the Barnes extension, you should put the Whitlock extension in there.

 

The Story contract is fine. Unless he gets a career ending injury, he should be worth the money even if he plays 2b. The do-overs would be Paxton, Richards, Diekman. Those were fairly low stakes though.

 

Diekman also landed the Sox their current starting catcher…

[mvp 78]

Yes, I listed all contracts at $3M or more, so Whitlocks should have been included at $4.7 x 4.

 

Yes, the clear failures were not big money losses, and it shows the budget limits Bloom was under that forced these types of signings. Once search and find, in hindsight, pitchers that did better for $3M, $4M, $5M, $6M and $10M tha n the ones Bloom signed, but those types of signings are almost always shots in the dark. To be fair, that's kind of what Bloom was hired to do: find gems in the rough. He has found a few, but should we have expected more?

 

I disagree that he was hired to find gems in the rough. He was hired to rebuild the farm system and to keep the big club competitive until the ecosystem could sustain itself rather than constantly need to grab outside FA's.

 

However:

 

1. BOS hasn't been good the whole time he's been here

 

2. The prospects he's traded for haven't really lit the world on fire

 

3. The Sox haven't been good at retaining their own talent so rebuilding from their farm may be a fruitless endeavor anyway

[mvp 78]

Diekman also landed the Sox their current starting catcher…

 

I'm not sure that's saying much at all especially since they are still looking for a starting catcher apparently.

[Old Red]

I disagree that he was hired to find gems in the rough. He was hired to rebuild the farm system and to keep the big club competitive until the ecosystem could sustain itself rather than constantly need to grab outside FA's.

 

However:

 

1. BOS hasn't been good the whole time he's been here

 

2. The prospects he's traded for haven't really lit the world on fire

 

3. The Sox haven't been good at retaining their own talent so rebuilding from their farm may be a fruitless endeavor anyway

 

Well said. Bloom may have been hired to find gems in the rough, but that should be down on the list of priorities. Keeping the Red Sox to be a competitive, winning team that gets into the postseason every year should be #1 on his list, and how he gets, and keeps the Red Sox there is the problem. Retaining homegrown players, trades, FA signings,, and production from the farm should all be a piece of the solution.

[Old Red]

I'm not sure that's saying much at all especially since they are still looking for a starting catcher apparently.

 

The current starting catchers are nothing, but backups.

[moonslav59]

I disagree that he was hired to find gems in the rough. He was hired to rebuild the farm system and to keep the big club competitive until the ecosystem could sustain itself rather than constantly need to grab outside FA's.

 

However:

 

1. BOS hasn't been good the whole time he's been here

 

2. The prospects he's traded for haven't really lit the world on fire

 

3. The Sox haven't been good at retaining their own talent so rebuilding from their farm may be a fruitless endeavor anyway

 

Part of the remaining competitive part of his priority list had to include finding low to moderately paid FAs that would do better than expected, but yes, rebuilding the farm was likely his #1 priority.

 

As far as the "fruitless" statement goes, we have to start somewhere, and having a farm that looks to be adding multiple and meaningful players every year, starting with Bello & casas late 2022 and going forward improves our long term outlook- maybe not by enough, but it's a start.

 

Bloom has to hit big on his additions, this year plus a rebound by Story. He may not need every addition to strike gold, especially if Sale, Paxton, Bello, Casas or some others step it up, but this is his flashpoint winter, IMO.

[mvp 78]

True on Wink & Crawford. We can't give them too long a leash, either, but with Mata, Walter, Murphy and maybe much more productive IP from Kelly and German we can take up some of the slack- no way can we take it all up.

 

Our best case scenario, which is highly unlikely:

 

Sale (2 GS) & Paxton replace Wacha (23 GS), Nate (20 GS) and Wink (14 GS).

Whitlock (9 GS) takes on Crawford's 12 GS and Seabold's 5 GS.

That leaves Bello (11 GS) to take up the slack: Houck 4 & Davis 3 plus a minor injury or two.

 

I don't see this as anything close to what we plan to happen. We need, at least one solid and dependable SP'er, hopefully a #1 or #2 type. This would hopefully allow Houck to stay in the pen, all year. Something good from Crawford, Wink, mata, Walter, Murphy or Seabold can help fill in the gaps, but if we have to go through 3-4 of these guys to find the one that works, it might be too much to overcome.

 

 

German still isn't ready as he doesn't have any secondary pitches. Walter will be 26 and has 7 innings above AA. He has an MLB caliber arm, but I'm not sure it's going to be much better than what Winckowski showed in 2022. Murphy is probably a bullpen arm. He got hit around in AAA last season. I'm not sold that he's an upgrade over Crawford or Winckowski.

 

The rotation is currently:

Sale

Paxton

Bello

Pivetta

Whitlock

 

If they add Kodai Senga or Corey Kluber, the rotation looks a little better. I'm not sure they can count on both Sale AND Paxton to be in the rotation. Then having Hill as a 2nd half signing would make sense for a stretch run.

[moonslav59]

Well said. Bloom may have been hired to find gems in the rough, but that should be down on the list of priorities. Keeping the Red Sox to be a competitive, winning team that gets into the postseason every year should be #1 on his list, and how he gets, and keeps the Red Sox there is the problem. Retaining homegrown players, trades, FA signings,, and production from the farm should all be a piece of the solution.

 

With the budget he was handed, getting competitive had to include finding lower paid players who got the job done. He did find some, but mostly he swung and missed.

[mvp 78]

Well said. Bloom may have been hired to find gems in the rough, but that should be down on the list of priorities. Keeping the Red Sox to be a competitive, winning team that gets into the postseason every year should be #1 on his list, and how he gets, and keeps the Red Sox there is the problem. Retaining homegrown players, trades, FA signings,, and production from the farm should all be a piece of the solution.

 

If he was hired to find gems in the rough, he's done a pretty miserable job of it.

[mvp 78]

The current starting catchers are nothing, but backups.

 

McGuire ended the year with the same amount of fWAR as Vaz had, but with 150 less PA's. He was 17th best in the league. That's starter level.

[moonslav59]

The current starting catchers are nothing, but backups.

 

I'm not sure we'll have enough resources to upgrade the catching position by as much as we might want/need to do. I do think it looks like a weak area with faint hopes of mediocrity, but IMO, we have 5-7 other slots that are in higher need of upgrading. (I'm not sure Bloom agrees.)

[moonslav59]

If he was hired to find gems in the rough, he's done a pretty miserable job of it.

 

Whitlock, Schreiber Refsnyder, Strahm, Renfroe, Arroyo, Kelly, McGuire...

 

I'm not sure $7M counts as "the rough" for Wacha or the 2021 Kike or $5M for Hill, but they did okay.

 

But yes, he largely failed. What is the expectation, though, on $1-7M signings?

 

Strangely, Bloom has done better on waivers, minor league FAs and Rule 5.

[mvp 78]

Part of the remaining competitive part of his priority list had to include finding low to moderately paid FAs that would do better than expected, but yes, rebuilding the farm was likely his #1 priority.

 

As far as the "fruitless" statement goes, we have to start somewhere, and having a farm that looks to be adding multiple and meaningful players every year, starting with Bello & casas late 2022 and going forward improves our long term outlook- maybe not by enough, but it's a start.

 

Bloom has to hit big on his additions, this year plus a rebound by Story. He may not need every addition to strike gold, especially if Sale, Paxton, Bello, Casas or some others step it up, but this is his flashpoint winter, IMO.

 

If you are going to build through your farm, you need to either extend your players, replace them with in house options or trade them before their contract runs out.

 

Players Bloom has extended:

Whitlock

Barnes?

 

Players Bloom has replaced with in house options:

Moreland>Dalbec>Casas

Plawecki>Wong

Wacha>Bello

Misc Relievers>AAA squad

 

Players Bloom as traded:

Betts>Verdugo

 

Extending QO's to Bogey and Eovaldi isn't going to replenish the farm the way trading them a year earlier would. Letting guys like JD walk out the door isn't going to help the future.

[mvp 78]

Whitlock, Schreiber Refsnyder, Strahm, Renfroe, Arroyo, Kelly, McGuire...

 

I'm not sure $7M counts as "the rough" for Wacha or the 2021 Kike or $5M for Hill, but they did okay.

 

But yes, he largely failed. What is the expectation, though, on $1-7M signings?

 

Strangely, Bloom has done better on waivers, minor league FAs and Rule 5.

 

Whitlock was a great pick, but without Andriese teaching him the changeup grip, maybe he's not the same pitcher? We'll never know.

 

With all the reliever churn since Bloom has been here, the only success story being Schreiber is pretty scary.

[Old Red]

If he was hired to find gems in the rough, he's done a pretty miserable job of it.

 

I’m not saying he’s done a good job of it, but only that it should be down on his list of priorities, and not near the top.

[moonslav59]

Whitlock was a great pick, but without Andriese teaching him the changeup grip, maybe he's not the same pitcher? We'll never know.

 

With all the reliever churn since Bloom has been here, the only success story being Schreiber is pretty scary.

 

Agreed, and Bloom could have shifted more of the spending to the pen, but again, what is the expectation for FAs signed at $1-$5 to $7M?

 

I think Strahm did well. I have hopes for Kelly, but yes, he has stuck our in the pen, and maybe just got lucky in 2021 with okay to decent pen production.

[moonslav59]

If you are going to build through your farm, you need to either extend your players, replace them with in house options or trade them before their contract runs out.

 

Players Bloom has extended:

Whitlock

Barnes?

 

Players Bloom has replaced with in house options:

Moreland>Dalbec>Casas

Plawecki>Wong

Wacha>Bello

Misc Relievers>AAA squad

 

Players Bloom as traded:

Betts>Verdugo

 

Extending QO's to Bogey and Eovaldi isn't going to replenish the farm the way trading them a year earlier would. Letting guys like JD walk out the door isn't going to help the future.

 

Agreed. If he knew he was going to let Boget and Nate go, he should have traded them, preferably before this last deadline. (We'd also have reset the tax.)

 

If one or both comeback, the point is moot.

[moonslav59]

Whitlock was a great pick...

 

Well, I do think he counts as a "gem in the rough" type addition. If Andriese was the reason he became so good, then that signing was worth it, too.

[notin]

I'm not sure we'll have enough resources to upgrade the catching position by as much as we might want/need to do. I do think it looks like a weak area with faint hopes of mediocrity, but IMO, we have 5-7 other slots that are in higher need of upgrading. (I'm not sure Bloom agrees.)

 

Sign Contreras.

[mvp 78]

Sign Contreras.

 

No.

[moonslav59]

No.

 

Actually, hell no!

 

Also, hell no on trading for Murphy.

[notin]

No.

 

Why not?

[Bellhorn04]

Why not?

 

I don't see why it would be a bad signing at the projected 4/84.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't see why it would be a bad signing at the projected 4/84.

 

For an AAV of $21M, here's what I wondered: All-Star catcher or All-Star batter who plays the catcher position? Contreras, 30, is a career .256 hitter with an .808 OPS in the NL, with half his games at Wrigley. His 162-game average of 26 HRs, 81 RBI and .349 OBP shouldn't go down in Fenway, right? But look at his dWAR... all positive -- never one negative in seven seasons.

 

For a comp, Vazquez, 32, has a career WAR of 7.0 and dWAR of 5.3 in 733 games. Contreras has a career WAR of 20.8 and dWAR of 6.5 in 734 games.

[notin]

For an AAV of $21M, here's what I wondered: All-Star catcher or All-Star batter who plays the catcher position? Contreras, 30, is a career .256 hitter with an .808 OPS in the NL, with half his games at Wrigley. His 162-game average of 26 HRs, 81 RBI and .349 OBP shouldn't go down in Fenway, right? But look at his dWAR... all positive -- never one negative in seven seasons.

 

For a comp, Vazquez, 32, has a career WAR of 7.0 and dWAR of 5.3 in 733 games. Contreras has a career WAR of 20.8 and dWAR of 6.5 in 734 games.

 

If he settles for 4/$84mill, that’s a steal. But I don’t he gets that. I’m thinking somewhere between 4/$96mill and 5/$110mill