A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

Steamer has Walker at 1.4 fWAR in 2023, 150 IP, 4.38 FIP.

 

Pivetta is projected for 1.5 fWAR and most of us consider him the 5th starter.

[notin]

Steamer has Walker at 1.4 fWAR in 2023, 150 IP, 4.38 FIP.

 

Pivetta is projected for 1.5 fWAR and most of us consider him the 5th starter.

 

Not to mention fWAR is based on FIP, which is based on K, BB and HRs - aka the three outcomes a pitcher can control. Really they’re the 3 a defense can’t stop.

 

Of course if you play at Fenway, a double that hits the Monster 35 feet up gets ignored by FIP despite the defense really having no possible chance…

[mvp 78]

Not to mention fWAR is based on FIP, which is based on K, BB and HRs - aka the three outcomes a pitcher can control. Really they’re the 3 a defense can’t stop.

 

Of course if you play at Fenway, a double that hits the Monster 35 feet up gets ignored by FIP despite the defense really having no possible chance…

 

Just parkour up to the ladder and make the catch.

[Bellhorn04]

WAR is supposed to be all encompassing, but there is always some new shiny tool that comes along.

 

Also, WAR just values what you produced. It does not always look at how you did it. How much luck was involved?

 

It also is not meant to predict what is to come.

 

I think fWAR is supposed to be more predictive than bWAR???

[Bellhorn04]

Steamer has Walker at 1.4 fWAR in 2023, 150 IP, 4.38 FIP.

 

Pivetta is projected for 1.5 fWAR and most of us consider him the 5th starter.

 

But in reality, Pivetta is a 3-4.

[mvp 78]

I think fWAR is supposed to be more predictive than bWAR???

 

Because fWAR uses FIP?

[mvp 78]

But in reality, Pivetta is a 3-4.

 

87th in fWAR for starters in 2022 even though he through 180 innings. I'd put him as a 4th starter for the 2023 Sox.

 

If Pivetta was a FA looking for Taijuan Walker $$$, I'd pass.

[moonslav59]

Looking at fWAR and SP'ers for 2022 only, I like to lower thye IP sample size until you get to 150 SP'ers. That's 5 per team x 30 teams.

 

This year, the IP level of 80 gets us to 146 pitchers. Think about that. While some may think fWAR rewards those with many IP by too much, how valuable is a good SP'er who gives only 80 IP?

 

If you place 1-30 as #1s and 31-60 as #2s and so on, here is how it would break down:

 

#1s

2. Rodon

3. Verlander

8. Bieber

9. Burnes

19. Quintana

20. M Perez

21. Kershaw

23. T Anderson

24. Castillo

25. Cobb

26. Snell

30. Woodruff

 

#2s

36. Stripling

44. P Lopez

47. Montgomery

48. Bassitt

50. J Springs

 

#3s

53. T Walker

54. Cueto

55. Carrasco

56. S Gray

59. J Taillon

60. C Quantrill

61. Luzardo

62. Syndergaard

63. T Mahle

65. M Keller

67. Stroman

68. Montas

69 Brubaker

71 Greinke

73 Kyle Gibson

74. Jon Gray

76. Rich Hill

77. R Ray

82. Wacha

83. Morton

85. Pivetta

89. Cole Irvin

 

#4s

95. Urquidy

97. Odorizzi

98. Berrios

100. Kopech

102. Manaea

104. Nate

105. Houser

117. T Rogers

 

#5s

121. ERod

123. B Keller

127. Archer

128. Bumgarner

130. Flexen

132. Clevinger

146. Kikuchi

 

From 2020-2022 (150+ IP creates a sample size of 149 SP'er)

 

Possible additions via trade or signing?

 

8. Bieber

9. Woodruff

24. Nate

26. Bassitt

 

31. Morton

33. Cobb

34. Lopez

37. Snell

42. Verlander

47. T Rogers

51. Manaea

 

61. Eflin (just signed)

65 Kluber

69 Quintana

70 Quantrill

72 T Walker

73 J Taillon

76 R Hill

79 Pivetta

84 Heaney

86 Flexen

88 Urquidy

89 Irvin

 

94 Luzardo

97 Wacha

99 M Keller

103 Brubaker

 

[harmony]

I'd be interested. Give us Winker, too. Who do you see on BTV with near equal value that you'd want in return?

Today at The Athletic two beat reporters suggest a trade of Chris Flexen for Milwaukee second baseman Kolten Wong:

 

https://theathletic.com/3958391/2022/12/02/mariners-brewers-trade-proposal-chris-flexen-kolten-wong/?source=freedailyemail&campaign=601983

 

MLB franchises and especially their fans tend to overvalue their assets but Flexen should be worth more than the $300,000 in surplus trade value at Baseball Trade Values (although BTV gives Wong only $100,000 in surplus value).

 

In a trade for Flexen the Red Sox might need to bring in a third club although the Mariners could look to replenish a farm system depleted by the graduation and trades of former top prospects.

[moonslav59]

If the Mariners want to sign a big 4 SS, maybe this would work for both sides:

 

Houck (SP/RP) & Verdugo (OF)

 

For

 

Crawford (SS), Flexen (SP), Winker (OF/DH)

 

BTV calls it a slight overpay by the Sox. (I'd even throw in Duran!)

[moonslav59]

Today at The Athletic two beat reporters suggest a trade of Chris Flexen for Milwaukee second baseman Kolten Wong:

 

https://theathletic.com/3958391/2022/12/02/mariners-brewers-trade-proposal-chris-flexen-kolten-wong/?source=freedailyemail&campaign=601983

 

MLB franchises and especially their fans tend to overvalue their assets but Flexen should be worth more than the $300,000 in surplus trade value at Baseball Trade Values (although BTV gives Wong only $100,000 in surplus value).

 

In a trade for Flexen the Red Sox might need to bring in a third club although the Mariners could look to replenish a farm system depleted by the graduation and trades of former top prospects.

 

So, does this mean the Sox have nothing the M's might want?

[mvp 78]

Today at The Athletic two beat reporters suggest a trade of Chris Flexen for Milwaukee second baseman Kolten Wong:

 

https://theathletic.com/3958391/2022/12/02/mariners-brewers-trade-proposal-chris-flexen-kolten-wong/?source=freedailyemail&campaign=601983

 

MLB franchises and especially their fans tend to overvalue their assets but Flexen should be worth more than the $300,000 in surplus trade value at Baseball Trade Values (although BTV gives Wong only $100,000 in surplus value).

 

In a trade for Flexen the Red Sox might need to bring in a third club although the Mariners could look to replenish a farm system depleted by the graduation and trades of former top prospects.

 

You can have Downs, that's fine.

[notin]

I think fWAR is supposed to be more predictive than bWAR???

 

I just remember before WAR became the star du jour, we used WARP and VORP. And at one point, very briefly, Win Shares…

[Bellhorn04]

I just remember before WAR became the star du jour, we used WARP and VORP. And at one point, very briefly, Win Shares…

 

We'll probably cycle back to ERA before it's all said and done...

[harmony]

So, does this mean the Sox have nothing the M's might want?

Perhaps there are no obvious Red Sox matches at the MLB level but the Mariners might be interested in prospects from an improved Boston farm system.

 

Or not.

 

Alex Verdugo might not be a better clubhouse fit than Jesse Winker and Tanner Houck might be redundant in Seattle's pitching depth chart.

 

Or not.

 

Seattle Times beat reporter Ryan Divish on Chris Flexen:

“Flex is not the gaudy-stuff type that really jumps off the page when you’re watching him for a scouting perspective,” Dipoto said. “But he fills it up with four average to above-average pitches. He’s a gamer. He takes the ball. He’ll do anything you ask him to do in a role.”

 

Even Flexen expected to be traded this season. After the Mariners were eliminated from the postseason at T-Mobile Park, he was openly crying in the clubhouse believing he wouldn’t be back with a team and a group of players he’d grown close to over the past two seasons.

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/analysis-here-are-the-players-the-mariners-could-trade-to-take-the-next-step/

Edited December 2, 2022 by harmony

[mvp 78]

Perhaps there are no obvious Red Sox matches at the MLB level but the Mariners might be interested in prospects from an improved Boston farm system.

 

Or not.

 

Alex Verdugo might not be a better clubhouse fit than Jesse Winker and Tanner Houck might be redundant in Seattle's pitching depth chart.

 

Or not.

 

Seattle Times beat reporter Ryan Divish on Chris Flexen:

 

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/analysis-here-are-the-players-the-mariners-could-trade-to-take-the-next-step/

 

Tanner Houck? Why would the Sox trade him for the expiring contracts of Flexen and Winker.

 

Even just Alex Verdugo for Flexen and Winker is considered and overpay for the Sox.

[moonslav59]

Tanner Houck? Why would the Sox trade him for the expiring contracts of Flexen and Winker.

 

Even just Alex Verdugo for Flexen and Winker is considered and overpay for the Sox.

 

Houck and Verdugo for Crawford, Flexen & Winker, and the M's can go sign a SS.

[harmony]

Houck and Verdugo for Crawford, Flexen & Winker, and the M's can go sign a SS.

Or the Mariners could sign a shortstop while keeping J.P. Crawford, Chris Flexen and Jesse Winker.

 

Crawford can block all trades in 2022 and can block trades to five clubs in each of the following four years.

[moonslav59]

Or the Mariners could sign a shortstop while keeping J.P. Crawford, Chris Flexen and Jesse Winker.

 

Crawford can block all trades in 2022 and can block trades to five clubs in each of the following four years.

 

Yes & yes, but I'm assuming you dislike the trade, even if we throw in Duran.

[harmony]

Yes & yes, but I'm assuming you dislike the trade, even if we throw in Duran.

The addition of Jarren Duran would lessen the package because the Mariners would not want to devote a 40-man roster slot to Duran, who would trail Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell and Cade Marlowe on the depth chart of lefthand-hitting outfielders.

[moonslav59]

The addition of Jarren Duran would lessen the package because the Mariners would not want to devote a 40-man roster slot to Duran, who would trail Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell and Cade Marlowe on the depth chart of lefthand-hitting outfielders.

 

You could flip him to another team for a non 40 man prospect.

 

BTV has him worth about 10 Flexens!

[notin]

The addition of Jarren Duran would lessen the package because the Mariners would not want to devote a 40-man roster slot to Duran, who would trail Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell and Cade Marlowe on the depth chart of lefthand-hitting outfielders.

 

Why would Duran behind any of them?

 

Kelenic is the young guy with potential, but it hasn’t translated to anything on the field yet. He hit worse across the board in 2022 from 2021.

 

Trammell is a league average hitter (finally) whose played for far too many organizations for a 25yo.

 

Marlowe has done pretty much nothing above AA and will be playing his age 26 season next year.

 

Duran is the oldest of the bunch, but also improved in every offensive category from 2021 to 2022.

 

He might be the front runner in this field. It’s not exactly Judge, Soto and Harper out there…

[mvp 78]

Why would Duran behind any of them?

 

Kelenic is the young guy with potential, but it hasn’t translated to anything on the field yet. He hit worse across the board in 2022 from 2021.

 

Trammell is a league average hitter (finally) whose played for far too many organizations for a 25yo.

 

Marlowe has done pretty much nothing above AA and will be playing his age 26 season next year.

 

Duran is the oldest of the bunch, but also improved in every offensive category from 2021 to 2022.

 

He might be the front runner in this field. It’s not exactly Judge, Soto and Harper out there…

 

You see, in harmony's world: Mariner's good, Red Sox bad.

 

Mariners have a bottom 5 system and the Sox have a top 10 system, but the Sox just don't have anything that Mariners could possibly want!

[moonslav59]

You see, in harmony's world: Mariner's good, Red Sox bad.

 

Mariners have a bottom 5 system and the Sox have a top 10 system, but the Sox just don't have anything that Mariners could possibly want!

 

How do you win organization of the year with a crappy farm?

[mvp 78]

How do you win organization of the year with a crappy farm?

 

All the good prospects have graduated or were traded. It was a top heavy farm.

 

24. Seattle Mariners

2022 preseason rank: 2

2021 midseason rank: 2

2021 preseason rank: 3

2020 midseason rank: 4

Top 100 Prospects: Harry Ford, C (No. 68)

 

The Mariners began the year with six players in the Top 100. Three, most notably top prospect Julio Rodríguez, graduated from prospect status. Two more Top 100 guys (one who was on the preseason list, one who wasn’t) were sent to the Reds in the Luis Castillo deal. The depth of the system was aided by the addition of six members of their 2022 Draft class, but winning/competing does have its cost in terms of maintaining a system that had been a mainstay in the top five.

[harmony]

Houck and Verdugo for Crawford, Flexen & Winker, and the M's can go sign a SS.

The Mariners reportedly have traded Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro to Milwaukee for second baseman Kolten Wong:

 

[moonslav59]

Sox sign Chris Matin to $17.5M/2:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/red-sox-to-sign-chris-martin-to-two-year-deal.html

[moonslav59]

The Mariners reportedly have traded Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro to Milwaukee for second baseman Kolten Wong:

 

 

I just saw that.

 

That frees up a roster spot for Houck & Duran for Crawford.

[harmony]

Why would Duran behind any of them?

 

Kelenic is the young guy with potential, but it hasn’t translated to anything on the field yet. He hit worse across the board in 2022 from 2021.

 

Trammell is a league average hitter (finally) whose played for far too many organizations for a 25yo.

 

Marlowe has done pretty much nothing above AA and will be playing his age 26 season next year.

 

Duran is the oldest of the bunch, but also improved in every offensive category from 2021 to 2022.

 

He might be the front runner in this field. It’s not exactly Judge, Soto and Harper out there…

Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell and Cade Marlowe are all plus outfield defenders.

 

Jarren Duran is not.

 

Duran, with a career OPS+ of 69, is three years older than Kelenic, who has a career OPS+ of 66.

 

Duran is a year older than Trammell, who has a career OPS+ of 82.

 

Duran is nine months older than Marlowe, who this year between Double A and Triple A posted a .287/.377/.487/.864 line with 23 home runs, 102 RBI and 42 stolen bases.

[harmony]

I just saw that.

 

That frees up a roster spot for Houck & Duran for Crawford.

The Seattle Mariners are highly, highly unlikely to trade J.P. Crawford.