A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

It has to be on the Padres, but when it comes to MLB, you can't assume the logical answer.

 

I was starting to wonder if the Padres had forged W2’s for their players just like the forged medical report on Drew Pomeranz…

[Hugh2]

You are on......

 

If I’m right I choose St. Jude’s Children Research hospital

[Bellhorn04]

If I’m right I choose St. Jude’s Children Research hospital

 

I'm pronouncing you the winner, based on the Fangraphs article I linked.

 

As I said, there's no way Bloom would have made the deal knowing he was taking a $5.7 million bump to payroll for tax purposes.

 

If someone looks at Cot's or Spotrac, it does look like a $5.7 mill hit, so it's quite a source of confusion for anyone who actually looks at these things.

[Nick]

I'm pronouncing you the winner, based on the Fangraphs article I linked.

 

As I said, there's no way Bloom would have made the deal knowing he was taking a $5.7 million bump to payroll for tax purposes.

 

If someone looks at Cot's or Spotrac, it does look like a $5.7 mill hit, so it's quite a source of confusion for anyone who actually looks at these things.

 

It sure looks to me like San Diego is picking up close to $13M and the Sox $5M. The contract was for $144M over 8 years or $18M AAV per year. SOMEONE has to pick that up. No way San Diego pick up the entire $144M in AAV on top of sending $39M to the Sox.

 

It would have been different had San Diego simply DFA's Hosmer. Then I agree that Padres picked up the entire tab for AAV. That was not the case, however. It was a trade. Trades have AAV and cash consequences if money is exchanged. Sox can trade Hosmer and reduce the AAV liability (say the Sox suck but Hosmer is outstanding through July).

Edited November 11, 2022 by Nick

[moonslav59]

It sure looks to me like San Diego is picking up close to $13M and the Sox $5M. The contract was for $144M over 8 years or $18M AAV per year. SOMEONE has to pick that up. No way San Diego pick up the entire $144M in AAV on top of sending $39M to the Sox.

 

It would have been different had San Diego simply DFA's Hosmer. Then I agree that Padres picked up the entire tab for AAV. That was not the case, however. It was a trade. Trades have AAV and cash consequences if money is exchanged. Sox can trade Hosmer and reduce the AAV liability (say the Sox suck but Hosmer is outstanding through July).

 

All the articles said the Padres picked up all the rest of the contract, minus the min salary. Nobody said the Sox took the tax hit. It would have been reported as such.

[Hugh2]

All the articles said the Padres picked up all the rest of the contract, minus the min salary. Nobody said the Sox took the tax hit. It would have been reported as such.

 

You would think, and I think we are right here, yet this stuff gets so convoluted you wonder if these reported miss it. I think the Sox aren’t on the hook, I’d like to see a real breakdown of the luxury tax with full confidence.

[moonslav59]

You would think, and I think we are right here, yet this stuff gets so convoluted you wonder if these reported miss it. I think the Sox aren’t on the hook, I’d like to see a real breakdown of the luxury tax with full confidence.

,

The only way taking on that lux tax hit might make any sense is if Max Ferguson and Corey Rosier are way, way better than Jay Groome. (I don't see that, at all.)

[moonslav59]

You would think, and I think we are right here, yet this stuff gets so convoluted you wonder if the reporters missed it.

 

They did get the Pham option amount wrong, when that trade was made.

[Bellhorn04]

It sure looks to me like San Diego is picking up close to $13M and the Sox $5M. The contract was for $144M over 8 years or $18M AAV per year. SOMEONE has to pick that up. No way San Diego pick up the entire $144M in AAV on top of sending $39M to the Sox.

 

Why not?

 

Keep in mind that for the first 5 years of the deal, San Diego paid Hosmer $21 mill but were only assessed $18 mill AAV.

 

The Fangraphs article explains the change in rules, and common sense says no way Bloom makes the trade otherwise.

[notin]

Why not?

 

Keep in mind that for the first 5 years of the deal, San Diego paid Hosmer $21 mill but were only assessed $18 mill AAV.

 

The Fangraphs article explains the change in rules, and common sense says no way Bloom makes the trade otherwise.

 

It looks to me like San Diego pays (nearly) full fare.

 

Which means what exactly did this trade do for them?

[mvp 78]

I think you are all wrong. And I'm willing to bet on it.

 

San Diego is done except for the monetary hit they have taken, $39M. Hosmer is off the books.

 

San Diego benefited from AAV perspective by paying higher salary amount the first 5 years. The AAV is computed over the life of the contract, or over 8 years. Thus, their annual AAV hit during the first five years were lower than the actual payout amount.

 

I believe the numbers shown for the Sox on cot's spreadsheet is correct.

 

Someone is responsible for the liability and I don't think it's San Diego. Otherwise they would have been penalized twice, once for actual cash and another for the AAV liability.

 

Wrong.... Nobody would ever take Hosmer if it impacted their luxury tax calculation. Cots has been bad lately. It's no longer a good source.

[mvp 78]

I found the answer on Hosmer. There was a change in the new CBA. The Sox AAV hit is indeed only the $720 K. No way Bloom would have made the trade if it caused tax issues.

 

The comments at the end of this are interesting. We're not the only ones wracking our brains trying to figure out this convoluted crap.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-minor-cba-change-could-create-contract-wrinkles/

 

It would never make sense to take on Hosmer if it was going to impact the luxury tax like Nick was suggesting. That would be a firable offense without getting major talent back.

[mvp 78]

It looks to me like San Diego pays (nearly) full fare.

 

Which means what exactly did this trade do for them?

 

40 man spot. It was either trade him or they were going to DFA at some point.

[Hugh2]

I know I'm not the only one who can make this brag.....but told ya'll Nate would get a QO.

[moonslav59]

It looks to me like San Diego pays (nearly) full fare.

 

Which means what exactly did this trade do for them?

 

They would have paid Hosmer had they DFA'd him. Trading him got them Jay Groome and a tiny savings of the min salary deduction.

[notin]

40 man spot. It was either trade him or they were going to DFA at some point.

 

They took on Groome, who required a 40 man spot…

[notin]

They would have paid Hosmer had they DFA'd him. Trading him got them Jay Groome and a tiny savings of the min salary deduction.

 

Is that worth it consignments with Josh Bell reaching free agency they might need a replacement at 1b anyway?

[moonslav59]

Wrong.... Nobody would ever take Hosmer if it impacted their luxury tax calculation. Cots has been bad lately. It's no longer a good source.

 

A team never paying lux tax might have taken him, if it counted $6M on the tax line, but only min salary on the actual budget.

[mvp 78]

A team never paying lux tax might have taken him, if it counted $6M on the tax line, but only min salary on the actual budget.

 

Nobody was lining up to take him on. The only team looking into dealing for him for the past few years was the Sox from what I remember.

[Bellhorn04]

They took on Groome, who required a 40 man spot…

 

Groome was the lottery ticket.

[notin]

Groome was the lottery ticket.

 

But his acquisition means Hosmer wasn’t dealt to free up a 40 man roster spot…

[notin]

Wrong.... Nobody would ever take Hosmer if it impacted their luxury tax calculation. Cots has been bad lately. It's no longer a good source.

 

Nobody out of the maybe 4 or 5 teams that have luxury tax concerns…

[notin]

Nobody was lining up to take him on. The only team looking into dealing for him for the past few years was the Sox from what I remember.

 

Most non-Padre fans around the country breathed a huge sigh of relief when he signed there…

[Red Foreman]

BTV accepted:

 

Rafaela, Wikelman, Wink & Hosmer

for

Lopez, Cabrera, Cooper & Soler

 

Cooper and Soler are a waste of roster spots.

[Hugh2]

Cooper and Soler are a waste of roster spots.

 

Then give him away for free, he's worth every penny if you get Lopez without dealing away Mayer. You're effectively paying $13 million dollars a year for an ACE.

[moonslav59]

Cooper and Soler are a waste of roster spots.

 

Soler was a salary dump to lessen the return needed, but he might allow Dugo to move to RF and give us some corner OF depth or even a starter- best case scenario.

 

Cooper ust replaces Hosmer's roster slot. Maybe a change of scenery helps him.

[moonslav59]

But his acquisition means Hosmer wasn’t dealt to free up a 40 man roster spot…

 

No, but 26 man, yes.

[moonslav59]

Then give him away for free, he's worth every penny if you get Lopez without dealing away Mayer. You're effectively paying $13 million dollars a year for an ACE.

 

That's exactly what that suggested trade was meant to highlight.

 

Look for teams that want to cut salary, and get them to add a useful piece for less return.

 

Kinda like Ottavino and German for nothing, but on steroids.

[Hugh2]

That's exactly what that suggested trade was meant to highlight.

 

Look for teams that want to cut salary, and get them to add a useful piece for less return.

 

Kinda like Ottavino and German for nothing, but on steroids.

 

You're taking Garcia to partially pay for Lopez. It's not out of question he rebounds and has a great year, you don't need him to for it to be a great trade but if he does it's a steal.

[moonslav59]

You're taking Garcia to partially pay for Lopez. It's not out of question he rebounds and has a great year, you don't need him to for it to be a great trade but if he does it's a steal.

 

Exactly. Soler to a lesser extent.