A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

It's about winning the World Series. Right now specifically, fielding a team good enough to beat the Astros.

 

It's about building the future around Bello, Casas and Devers.

 

And we're talking about bringing back slow white dude in Beni? Pleaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaase. (yeah, it's a bait to stimulate discussion!)

 

Bait taken.

 

Beni gets on base. The Sox need players who do that…

[Nick]

Bait taken.

 

Beni gets on base. The Sox need players who do that…

 

Why now? Why did we not keep him? Is he a better player now than when we let him go?

 

Again, all these are minor movements.

 

Signing multiple Beni types will NOT make Sox MUCH BETTER.

 

I wait anxiously for difference maker/impact player signing(s).

[mvp 78]

It's about winning the World Series. Right now specifically, fielding a team good enough to beat the Astros.

 

It's about building the future around Bello, Casas and Devers.

 

And we're talking about bringing back slow white dude in Beni? Pleaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaase. (yeah, it's a bait to stimulate discussion!)

 

I mean, bringing back Beni doesn't solve all of the problems, but it upgrades them at one of their positions of needs. What's the problem.

 

We can say "how does this make them MUCH better" but also say "how did they get so MUCH worse" than 2021. To me, if they can get a rotation that is likely to be more healthy, they'll find more success and have a better chance to be in contention down the stretch. Once there, it's just about being hot at the right time and making the right moves to fill in the gaps. In 2022, they were basically out of it when Hill and Wacha went out on IL. They started the year with Sale on the IL and the team initially struggled to find itself, but the team started to play well and looked like the season was making a turn, but the Wacha/Hill and later Eovaldi injuries really put the nail in it. Also, field a competitive bullpen.

[mvp 78]

Why now? Why did we not keep him? Is he a better player now than when we let him go?

 

Again, all these are minor movements.

 

Signing multiple Beni types will NOT make Sox MUCH BETTER.

 

I wait anxiously for difference maker/impact player signing(s).

 

They aren't going to "sign" any impact players this offseason as I don't believe any are out there that interest the Sox. Correa instead of Bogey?

[moonslav59]

Why now? Why did we not keep him? Is he a better player now than when we let him go?

 

Again, all these are minor movements.

 

Signing multiple Beni types will NOT make Sox MUCH BETTER.

 

I wait anxiously for difference maker/impact player signing(s).

 

We are not adding 5-7 All Stars to fill our 5-7 high need areas. I think the idea is to try to improve at all or almost all of those 5-7 with maybe 1-2 being significant improvements.

[notin]

They aren't going to "sign" any impact players this offseason as I don't believe any are out there that interest the Sox. Correa instead of Bogey?

 

Maybe Correa is the plan?

 

He is younger than Bogaerts, and much better defensively. Certainly he looks like Fenway is the park for him. And reportedly Cora is a fan.

 

Now will Correa be willing to move to third base at some point in the 8-10 year deal he will require? I can’t answer that. Maybe he can’t either. But if he does, his glove and bat will play well there.

 

The Sox have been giving mixed signals to Bogaets. A lackluster offer. A promise not to trade him (that they followed up on). And an announcement that he was priority. MLBTR thinks Bogaets is gone.

 

If so, the Sox simply can’t go and get, say, Miguel Rojas to be the stopgap between now and Mayer without making up the offense somewhere. Benintendi and Nimmo are fine targets, but are they enough? Will the Sox find a way to get a highly productive DH?

 

I think if Bogaerts goes, Correa is a likely replacement…

[Old Red]

Maybe Correa is the plan?

 

He is younger than Bogaerts, and much better defensively. Certainly he looks like Fenway is the park for him. And reportedly Cora is a fan.

 

Now will Correa be willing to move to third base at some point in the 8-10 year deal he will require? I can’t answer that. Maybe he can’t either. But if he does, his glove and bat will play well there.

 

The Sox have been giving mixed signals to Bogaets. A lackluster offer. A promise not to trade him (that they followed up on). And an announcement that he was priority. MLBTR thinks Bogaets is gone.

 

If so, the Sox simply can’t go and get, say, Miguel Rojas to be the stopgap between now and Mayer without making up the offense somewhere. Benintendi and Nimmo are fine targets, but are they enough? Will the Sox find a way to get a highly productive DH?

 

I think if Bogaerts goes, Correa is a likely replacement…

Right Correa will be more expensive than Bogey, so the Sox will land him instead, and then lock up Raffy at even more money.Wishful thinking, but not much of a reality.

[moonslav59]

Maybe Correa is the plan?

 

He is younger than Bogaerts, and much better defensively. Certainly he looks like Fenway is the park for him. And reportedly Cora is a fan.

 

Now will Correa be willing to move to third base at some point in the 8-10 year deal he will require? I can’t answer that. Maybe he can’t either. But if he does, his glove and bat will play well there.

 

The Sox have been giving mixed signals to Bogaets. A lackluster offer. A promise not to trade him (that they followed up on). And an announcement that he was priority. MLBTR thinks Bogaets is gone.

 

If so, the Sox simply can’t go and get, say, Miguel Rojas to be the stopgap between now and Mayer without making up the offense somewhere. Benintendi and Nimmo are fine targets, but are they enough? Will the Sox find a way to get a highly productive DH?

 

I think if Bogaerts goes, Correa is a likely replacement…

 

Would Correa's deal make extending Devers almost impossible?

 

I just don't see us going 8+ years on an up and down player with injury issues and a significant dip in D, this year- one of his high mark skills.

 

OPS+

155 in 2017 (109 gms)

99 in 2018 (110)

137 in 2019 (75)

93 in 2020 (58 out of 60)

131 in 2021 (148)

140 in 2022 (136)

 

These last 2 years are his only back-to-back 110+ game seasons.

 

DRS

10

11

9

7

20

3 in 2022

 

UZR/150

-3.8

-8.6

0.9

-2.2

3.1

1.9

-2.3

 

I'd pass on Carlos.

 

I'd rather go 6 on Bogey at $160 max or $115/5 on Swanson.

[mvp 78]

I think if Bogaerts goes, Correa is a likely replacement…

 

2024

1B Casas

2B Story

SS Mayer

3B Correa

 

Seems like a pretty good infield?

[mvp 78]

Right Correa will be more expensive than Bogey, so the Sox will land him instead, and then lock up Raffy at even more money.Wishful thinking, but not much of a reality.

 

If they sign Correa, Raffy is gone.

[notin]

Right Correa will be more expensive than Bogey, so the Sox will land him instead, and then lock up Raffy at even more money.Wishful thinking, but not much of a reality.

 

Says the guy who wants Judge, Diaz, etc.

 

It would be expensive and it only works out of the Sox get sufficient minimum wage help from below.

 

Casas and Bello are a nice immediate start. Maybe not enough, though.

 

The only reason to think it’s possible is the Sox did go big of Story for some reason…

[notin]

If they sign Correa, Raffy is gone.

 

Of the two, I’d prefer Devers…

[notin]

2024

1B Casas

2B Story

SS Mayer

3B Correa

 

Seems like a pretty good infield?

 

If Mayer us the starter in 2024, I’d just assume putting Hernandez at SS and looking for a CF placeholder for Rafaela. Kiermaier would be acceptable if he could stay in the field.

 

Or, if a stopgap shortstop is the plan, Didi Gregorious? Jean Segura?

 

Of course a DH better than Hosmer would be necessary…

Edited October 24, 2022 by notin

[mvp 78]

I'd pass on Carlos.

 

I'd rather go 6 on Bogey at $160 max or $115/5 on Swanson.

 

When you dig into Correa's numbers, you find that he's the opposite of Xander. Xander had a weird skewing of his numbers where he found all of his value in when he was shifting (+5 OAA). For Correa, his best defensive positioning is when he plays SS - straight up +1 OAA and he was worse when shifted. Correa's defense should improve in 2023 and Xander's should get worse.

[mvp 78]

If Mayer us the starter in 2024, I’d just assume putting Hernandez at SS and looking for a CF placeholder for Rafaela. Kiermaier would be acceptable if he could stay in the field.

 

Or, if a stopgap shortstop is the plan, Didi Gregorious? Jean Segura?

 

Of course a DH better than Hosmer would be necessary…

 

You would have Rafaela still in the minors in 2024 or just as a backup?

[moonslav59]

When you dig into Correa's numbers, you find that he's the opposite of Xander. Xander had a weird skewing of his numbers where he found all of his value in when he was shifting (+5 OAA). For Correa, his best defensive positioning is when he plays SS - straight up +1 OAA and he was worse when shifted. Correa's defense should improve in 2023 and Xander's should get worse.

 

I do believe Correa is significantly better than Bogey on D, even before you presented these facts, but he is not the same, on D, as he was a few years back and may get worse, despite the no shift rule change.

 

His offense is inconsistent.

 

His health is always a big concern.

 

He's not the guy I go 7+ years on, even though he is younger than most stud FAs.

 

The only FAs, I'd go 7+ on, this year, are T Turner and Judge. Nimmo, if the AAV is right.

[mvp 78]

Judge doesn't have health concerns?

[Bellhorn04]

Judge is the riskiest play out there.

[Old Red]

If they sign Correa, Raffy is gone.

 

Correa’s contract would be bigger, and longer then I think the Red Sox would want to go, and I think that goes for Raffy too.

[notin]

You would have Rafaela still in the minors in 2024 or just as a backup?

 

Hernandez is only on a one year deal. If the Sox bring in Kiermaier, a similar deal might also be reached. Ditto for Grigorius or Segura.

 

That would clear the path for both Mayer and Rafaela in 2024, assuming either or both are ready…

[notin]

I do believe Correa is significantly better than Bogey on D, even before you presented these facts, but he is not the same, on D, as he was a few years back and may get worse, despite the no shift rule change.

 

His offense is inconsistent.

 

His health is always a big concern.

 

He's not the guy I go 7+ years on, even though he is younger than most stud FAs.

 

The only FAs, I'd go 7+ on, this year, are T Turner and Judge. Nimmo, if the AAV is right.

 

Even Nimmo, as on board as I am, is not without health issues.

 

Judge’s next contract has Nightmare Potential…

[moonslav59]

Even Nimmo, as on board as I am, is not without health issues.

 

Judge’s next contract has Nightmare Potential…

 

I'm not for signing Judge.

 

I'd consider Turner and Nimmo for 7 years, but not mega bucks for Nimmo. I'd only go 7 to bring down his AAV on him.

[moonslav59]

Judge doesn't have health concerns?

 

He does, but he's also way better than Correa on O and now D.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Hernandez is only on a one year deal. If the Sox bring in Kiermaier, a similar deal might also be reached. Ditto for Grigorius or Segura.

 

That would clear the path for both Mayer and Rafaela in 2024, assuming either or both are ready…

 

I keep telling you, that is the Kinks' low budget plan.

[Bellhorn04]

I keep telling you, that is the Kinks' low budget plan.

 

What did you say???

 

That's my favorite Kinks album.

[mvp 78]

What did you say???

 

That's my favorite Kinks album.

 

Low Budget Plan

 

or

 

Mayer and Rafaela in 2024

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What did you say???

 

That's my favorite Kinks album.

 

I'm more of a sleepwalker.

[Nick]

1B Casas

2B Story

SS Mayer

CF Rafaela

SP Bello

SP Matta

RP Whitlock

RP Houck

 

I would focus on Devers this winter. If no agreement on extension, then trade him.

[Tedballgame]

Say what you want but Dave Dombrowski got another team to the World Series. Meanwhile, the Sox are languishing in the bottom of the AL East.

[moonslav59]

Say what you want but Dave Dombrowski got another team to the World Series. Meanwhile, the Sox are languishing in the bottom of the AL East.

 

Tell me how DD would have brought us to the WS with the farm and budget Bloom had.

 

We are not bashing DD. No GM could have done it.