A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

Not much money to spend if Bogey, and Raffy sign, and if they don’t then it will take money for their replacement. I’m all for trading Raffy if nothing can be worked out, but like I have been saying for awhile that I don’t see how a good plan A, or plan B can be made without knowing the status of Bogey, and Raffy first.

 

If the plan is to reset in 2022, then a Raffy extension that starts in 2024 does not really matter on the budget, until years from now.

 

I'm not sure why spending on SS over RF and pitching is a higher priority, but if it means trying to lock up Bogey before he reaches free agency, then yes, he comes first.

 

For example, if we were to sign Judge, that would be the higher priority over SS and Bogey. If we knew we were going to outbid everyone for him, then Bogey and SS are secondary.

 

I don't think Judge is a priority, but I just used him as an example.

 

We may value signing Nimmo over Bogey, as there are better secondary options at SS than CF/RF, it seems to me.

[notin]

Good points, but also why I can't see investing in a guy like Bassitt, who is older than Eovaldi. John Henry took his business model from the old hippie button: Don't Trust Anyone Over 30.

 

I only pick Bassitt as I see him as a shorter term contract and a guy not o imply to get a QO. But he might want 5 years.

 

Really it comes down to which of these two have more budget-friendly demands. Eovaldi is more talented but carries much, much more risk. Bassitt, with less wear and tear on his arm and fewer surgeries in his past, is the safer play.

[harmony]

I only pick Bassitt as I see him as a shorter term contract and a guy not o imply to get a QO. But he might want 5 years.

 

Really it comes down to which of these two have more budget-friendly demands. Eovaldi is more talented but carries much, much more risk. Bassitt, with less wear and tear on his arm and fewer surgeries in his past, is the safer play.

From Metsmerized:

 

https://metsmerizedonline.com/the-curious-case-of-chris-bassitt/

[Hugh2]

Do we really know if the Sox are going under the cap this year or next? If 2023 and 2024 are wildly successful, think they dial back? The increased revenue from a successful team can more than cover the cost of the penalties….

 

I think we can conclude with 99.99% certainty that they're getting under either this year or next. which if so, this year makes the most sense.

[Hugh2]

The Raffy "increase" can be structured to not add much on the tax budget for 2023 by making it begin in 2024.

 

I've already said I'd offer Bogey $160M/6 max, and that may be too much. That is $26.7M per year. Out of $80M, that leaves about $53M to spend on RF, SP, RP, RP and maybe some depth, assuming we reset.

 

I think we have to offer Bogaerts market rate. If all deals are equal I think he stays here but he's going to get offered 25-30 million per depending on the years. If it's in the lower range 25/26 then I think it's going to be 7+ years from someone.

[moonslav59]

I think we can conclude with 99.99% certainty that they're getting under either this year or next. which if so, this year makes the most sense.

 

Agreed.

 

I still think, if done right, we can still compete in 2023 and set ourselves up for 2024 and beyond, at the same time.

 

One year deals at positions where we may have an internal solution, soon or where no longer term option is available at the right cost (financial or in trade.)

 

Longer term deal only for players that are likely to be just as good or better in 2024 and maybe beyond.

[moonslav59]

I think we have to offer Bogaerts market rate. If all deals are equal I think he stays here but he's going to get offered 25-30 million per depending on the years. If it's in the lower range 25/26 then I think it's going to be 7+ years from someone.

 

I've thought my $160M/6 offer is actually too high, but I know you have to overpay on the FA market. If I gave 7 years, it would probably be around $175-180M/7, tops.

Edited October 26, 2022 by moonslav59

[notin]

From Metsmerized:

 

https://metsmerizedonline.com/the-curious-case-of-chris-bassitt/

 

So apparently Bassitt has a $19 mill mutual option. If that’s the case, if the Mets exercise their option and Bassitt declines, 100% he gets a QO.

 

Now if the Mets are the ones to decline, obviously he gets no QO.

 

This gets easy when the option is the same value as the Qualifying Offer…

[harmony]

So apparently Bassitt has a $19 mill mutual option. If that’s the case, if the Mets exercise their option and Bassitt declines, 100% he gets a QO.

 

Now if the Mets are the ones to decline, obviously he gets no QO.

 

This gets easy when the option is the same value as the Qualifying Offer…

Would the Mets prefer the compensation that attaches to the qualifying offer if Chris Bassitt signs elsewhere?

 

Would Bassitt gamble on the free agent market by declining a qualifying offer?

 

If Bassitt declines a qualifying offer, would the resulting penalty to a signing club shrink Bassitt's free agent market to the point that Bassitt is compelled to re-sign with the Mets at less than $19 million?

 

It's complicated.

[moonslav59]

Would the Mets prefer the compensation that attaches to the qualifying offer if Chris Bassitt signs elsewhere?

 

Would Bassitt gamble on the free agent market by declining a qualifying offer?

 

If Bassitt declines a qualifying offer, would the resulting penalty to a signing club shrink Bassitt's free agent market to the point that Bassitt is compelled to re-sign with the Mets at less than $19 million?

 

It's complicated.

 

It is complicated, and he seems to be worth about $18-20M. I think a longer term deal makes the penalties for signing a QO FA bearable, and teams that did not go over the lux tax may not be scared away, but those who did might be.

[moonslav59]

The first great news for the Sox, this offseason:

 

The Yanks are brining Boone back!

[notin]

Would the Mets prefer the compensation that attaches to the qualifying offer if Chris Bassitt signs elsewhere?

 

Would Bassitt gamble on the free agent market by declining a qualifying offer?

 

If Bassitt declines a qualifying offer, would the resulting penalty to a signing club shrink Bassitt's free agent market to the point that Bassitt is compelled to re-sign with the Mets at less than $19 million?

 

It's complicated.

 

The bottom line for the Mets is - do they think Bassitt is worth $19mill? If they do, they pick up the option. If Bassitt declines on his end, the Mets were already prepared once to offer Bassitt $19mill, so why not do it again? Either they get him for a rate they already offered once before, or they get draft compensation.

 

Now accepting it and weighing it against the market is a concern for Bassitt. But not sure if the Mets really care. From their standpoint, the QO is easy…

[moonslav59]

BTV updated their player values for the winter. Here are the Sox numbers:

 

MLB Level

39 Casas

34 Whitlock

33 Bello

29 Devers

24 Schreiber

19 Houck

7 McGuire

6 Duran

3 Winckowski, Hosmer, Seabold, Verdugo

2 Taylor, Wong, German

 

Minors:

55 Mayer

15 Rafaela

14 Bleis

12 Yorke

9 Romero

7 W Gonzalez, Coffey

6 Lugo, Walter

5 Jordan

4 Mata

3 Murphy, Paulino, McDonough, Bonaci

2 RHern, Jimenez, Abreu, Anthony, Rosier, Drohan, Hickey, Rodriguez-Cruz, Chacon, Hamilton

 

The Negatives

-37.4 Story

-27.4 Sale

-7.8 barnes

-4 Paxton

-0.6 Arroyo

 

[notin]

BTV updated their player values for the winter. Here are the Sox numbers:

 

MLB Level

39 Casas

34 Whitlock

33 Bello

29 Devers

24 Schreiber

19 Houck

7 McGuire

6 Duran

3 Winckowski, Hosmer, Seabold, Verdugo

2 Taylor, Wong, German

 

Minors:

55 Mayer

15 Rafaela

14 Bleis

12 Yorke

9 Romero

7 W Gonzalez, Coffey

6 Lugo, Walter

5 Jordan

4 Mata

3 Murphy, Paulino, McDonough, Bonaci

2 RHern, Jimenez, Abreu, Anthony, Rosier, Drohan, Hickey, Rodriguez-Cruz, Chacon, Hamilton

 

The Negatives

-37.4 Story

-27.4 Sale

-7.8 barnes

-4 Paxton

-0.6 Arroyo

 

 

Still wondering how Duran has that much value.

 

Speed should be something teams are looking for. But speed combined with limited offense and no defense won’t be any sort of hot commodity…

[moonslav59]

Still wondering how Duran has that much value.

 

Speed should be something teams are looking for. But speed combined with limited offense and no defense won’t be any sort of hot commodity…

 

I know. To say Duran is our 8th most valuable vet is a pretty blatant mistake, IMO.

 

I guess they still see offensive promise.

[harmony]

Still wondering how Duran has that much value.

 

Speed should be something teams are looking for. But speed combined with limited offense and no defense won’t be any sort of hot commodity…

Granted bias is at play but no sense can be made of this proposed trade of five years of 26-year-old Jarren Duran, who posted a negative 0.4 fWAR this year, and four years of 27-year-old Bobby Dalbec, who posted a negative 0.1 fWAR this season, to Seattle for six years of 23-year-old righthander Emerson Hancock, the No. 6 pick in the 2020 draft.

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-105381/

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

BTV updated their player values for the winter. Here are the Sox numbers:

 

MLB Level

39 Casas

34 Whitlock

33 Bello

29 Devers

24 Schreiber

19 Houck

7 McGuire

6 Duran

3 Winckowski, Hosmer, Seabold, Verdugo

2 Taylor, Wong, German

 

Minors:

55 Mayer

15 Rafaela

14 Bleis

12 Yorke

9 Romero

7 W Gonzalez, Coffey

6 Lugo, Walter

5 Jordan

4 Mata

3 Murphy, Paulino, McDonough, Bonaci

2 RHern, Jimenez, Abreu, Anthony, Rosier, Drohan, Hickey, Rodriguez-Cruz, Chacon, Hamilton

 

The Negatives

-37.4 Story

-27.4 Sale

-7.8 barnes

-4 Paxton

-0.6 Arroyo

 

 

Paxton has never played a game for the Red Sox. He shouldn't have any value, positive or negative. He is not an integer nor a fraction. The poster with the blue font who bragged about the Yankees in the final four months of the season when they lost more than they won has more value.

[moonslav59]

Paxton has never played a game for the Red Sox. He shouldn't have any value, positive or negative. He is not an integer nor a fraction. The poster with the blue font who bragged about the Yankees in the final four months of the season when they lost more than they won has more value.

 

There is a $4M player option, so they must view that has his negative value. If he takes it and gives us nothing, he's worth -$4M.

 

He had -$6M, this season.

[moonslav59]

2023 Red Sox Projected Lux Tax Budget

($Millions)- Not counting Free Agents

 

25.6 Sale

23.3 Story

10.0 Kike

9.4 Barnes

4.7 Whitlock

73.0 TOTAL Under Contract

 

Arbs (MLBTR Projections):

16.9 Devers 3rd or 3

6.9 Verdugo 2nd of 3

5.9 Pivetta 2nd of 3

2.3 Brasier 3rd of 3 (non tender?)

2.2 Arroyo 2nd of 4

1.6 Refsnyder 2nd of 3

1.5 Cordero 2nd of 3 (non tender?)

1.3 McGuire 2nd of 3

1.1 Taylor 2nd of 4

.90 Almonte 1st of 3

.90 Chang 1st of 3

~41.0 TOTAL Arb Estimates (assuming no non tenders)

 

TOTAL: $114M

 

~$2.3 40 Man Players in Minors

~$1.7 0-3 yr Bonus Pool

~$16 Player Benefits

 

$134M Lux Tax Total Before any additions

 

Lux Tax Line for 2023: $232M

$98M remaining to spend to reach the Lux Tax line.

 

Options/Buy Outs:

$20M x 3 Bogey (Player Option) Will likely be offered a QO, if not extended.

$13M x 2 Paxton (Paxton has $4M player option) no Buy Out.

$12M Pham w $1.5M buyout

$8M JBJ Buyout (does not count on ’23 tax line)

 

Possible QO: Eovaldi (maybe), Wacha (not likely), JD (very unlikely)

 

Did I miss anything?

[harmony]

Is it tampering for a team to be "in on" Xander Bogaerts before he opts out and becomes a free agent?

 

[Hugh2]

Looks like Correa is coming to Boston. Maybe Swanson. I don’t hate it but they have to lock up Devers.

[moonslav59]

Looks like Correa is coming to Boston. Maybe Swanson. I don’t hate it but they have to lock up Devers.

 

Why does it "look like" that?

[Hugh2]

Why does it "look like" that?

 

I'm commenting on the Tweet that the Mariners and the Giants are in on Bogaerts and Turner. My comment was 1/2 serious, obviously just because a couple of teams are in on two guys does not mean other teams will not be in on them nor does it mean The Sox are not. I do wonder if Correa would want to come here and play for Cora though.

[moonslav59]

I'm commenting on the Tweet that the Mariners and the Giants are in on Bogaerts and Turner. My comment was 1/2 serious, obviously just because a couple of teams are in on two guys does not mean other teams will not be in on them nor does it mean The Sox are not. I do wonder if Correa would want to come here and play for Cora though.

 

I think there will be interest, but when you say "looks like..." it sounds like there is a report that he is about to sign with the Sox.

[mvp 78]

Paxton has never played a game for the Red Sox. He shouldn't have any value, positive or negative. He is not an integer nor a fraction. The poster with the blue font who bragged about the Yankees in the final four months of the season when they lost more than they won has more value.

 

Now that is some good use of hyperbole.

[harmony]

Columnist (and former MLB exec) Jim Bowden at The Athletic lists the Red Sox as the best fit for shortstop Dansby Swanson:

 

https://theathletic.com/3713969/2022/10/27/mlb-free-agent-shortstops-new-teams/

 

Subscription required.

 

An excerpt:

And if the Red Sox lose Bogaerts, Swanson would be a perfect fit for them. His value in free agency would probably fall more in line with what the Boston front office thinks is fair, so I could see a deal similar to what they gave Trevor Story last offseason (six years, $140 million).

Edited October 27, 2022 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Columnist (and former MLB exec) Jim Bowden at The Athletic lists the Red Sox as the best fit for shortstop Dansby Swanson:

 

https://theathletic.com/3713969/2022/10/27/mlb-free-agent-shortstops-new-teams/

 

Subscription required.

 

An excerpt:

 

That's the guy I think we end up with.

[harmony]

That's the guy I think we end up with.

In the same piece at The Athletic Bowden lists the Mariners as the best fit for shortstop Xander Bogaerts:

 

An excerpt:

Bogaerts would be a terrific fit, on and off the field, due to his strong veteran presence and leadership skills. The Mariners could move J.P. Crawford to second base to make room for him, or move Suárez to DH and play Bogaerts at third base if he’s willing to change positions.

Bowden projects Bogaerts with a seven-year, $196 million contract.

[moonslav59]

In the same piece at The Athletic Bowden lists the Mariners as the best fit for shortstop Xander Bogaerts:

 

An excerpt:

 

Bowden projects Bogaerts with a seven-year, $196 million contract.

 

That's more than I would pay, so if he gets that, I guess he's elsewhere, next year.

[notin]

Columnist (and former MLB exec) Jim Bowden at The Athletic lists the Red Sox as the best fit for shortstop Dansby Swanson:

 

https://theathletic.com/3713969/2022/10/27/mlb-free-agent-shortstops-new-teams/

 

Subscription required.

 

An excerpt:

 

If the Sox go big at shortstop, I could certainly see Jimmy Swanson as a candidate.

 

I do wonder if that makes Mayer available for pitching…