A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

If the Sox go big at shortstop, I could certainly see Jimmy Swanson as a candidate.

 

I do wonder if that makes Mayer available for pitching…

 

As in trading for a pitcher, right?

[mvp 78]

In the same piece at The Athletic Bowden lists the Mariners as the best fit for shortstop Xander Bogaerts:

 

An excerpt:

 

Bowden projects Bogaerts with a seven-year, $196 million contract.

 

Crawford is a much better SS though. Moving him over for Xander doesn't make baseball sense to me.

 

I think the contract is a little high, but not outrageous. I was comfortable with 6 years at 27.5M AAV, that's just an extra year with .5M more per year.

[notin]

In the same piece at The Athletic Bowden lists the Mariners as the best fit for shortstop Xander Bogaerts:

 

An excerpt:

 

Bowden projects Bogaerts with a seven-year, $196 million contract.

 

 

The 7 years part would make me very hesitant…

[mvp 78]

If the Sox go big at shortstop, I could certainly see Jimmy Swanson as a candidate.

 

I do wonder if that makes Mayer available for pitching…

 

Maybe. I also don't see SS as a logjam. Those guys are talented enough that you can move off position depending on need.

[notin]

As in trading for a pitcher, right?

 

Presumably.

 

I imagine Mayer would speak to every team…

[notin]

Maybe. I also don't see SS as a logjam. Those guys are talented enough that you can move off position depending on need.

 

I believe the idea here isn’t to unclog the logjam but rather to find a way to get some starting pitching that isn’t already over 30 and adding for 8 figures annually…

[moonslav59]

The 7 years part would make me very hesitant…

 

The extra year should bring down the AAV.

 

$196/7 is probably very close to what he gets, but to me, even my suggested $160M/6 is probably too much, but acceptable. There has to be a top limit, and I think that exceeds it. (I might go $175-180M/7, so that offer is not absurd, to me- not like Saeger's, last winter.)

[Bellhorn04]

If the Sox go big at shortstop, I could certainly see Jimmy Swanson as a candidate.

 

Jimbo it is!

[oldtimer]

Did I miss anything?

 

Under $134M lux Tax Total, I would have put before any additions or subtractions. Surely the probability of losing such notables as Brasier, Cordero Almonte and Chang is high and others may go as well.

 

Casas, Bello are all but guaranteed to be in and Rafaela likely.

[moonslav59]

Under $134M lux Tax Total, I would have put before any additions or subtractions. Surely the probability of losing such notables as Brasier, Cordero Almonte and Chang is high and others may go as well.

 

Casas, Bello are all but guaranteed to be in and Rafaela likely.

 

I put "non tender" next to Brasier and Cordero. Chang and Almonte barely get paid more than the min, so they are not adding much to the total.

 

We may end up replacing Brasier's $2.3M estimated arb number with someone like previous additions Andriese and Diekman.

 

I'm fine with saying the starting point is about $130M. (That is also assuming no Paxton option.)

[mvp 78]

On 9/23, Old Red stated "need a reliable closer and go from there."

 

I responded with:

 

FA Options (reliability may vary):

Jansen

Robertson

Treinen (option probably gets picked up)

Colomé

Kimbrel

Montero

 

This is the first mention of Montero.

 

The very next post is notin saying:

 

"No Fulmer?"

 

There is a complaint that the ideas we have posted are boring and aren't moving the needle. I post a crazy idea that signs a bunch of FA then follow it up with an actual FA plan that leaves space for an extension for Raffy. Fellow posters laud me as a mathematical genius. This post includes Montero as the closer to be signed.

 

Over the next few weeks, I mention Montero as an option to be the "clear closer." notin continues to mention "Fulmer and Montero."

 

I think notin and I both want Montero signed, but maybe for slightly different reasons. Your belief that he somehow posted about Montero as closer "weeks" before is made up, as usual. C'mon man.

[moonslav59]

Cots:

 

Paxton:

22:$6M, 23:$4M player option or 23-24 club options, to be exercised or declined simultaneously, at annual salaries of $13M plus performance bonuses earned in 2022

2022 performance bonuses: $250,000 each for 12, 14, 16, 18 starts

annual performance bonuses for 2023-24, if options are exercised: $250,000 each for 20, 22, 24, 26 starts, less 2022 bonuses earned

 

I'm a bit confused about the Paxton contract and options. It is my understanding he counted as $10M on the tax line, this year and earned $6M in 2022. That mean's he gets $4M, if the option is declined, right?

 

If so, that means the choice is basically:

 

$4M to go away

 

or

 

$26M/2

 

The net difference makes it essentially $24M/2.

[moonslav59]

On 9/23, Old Red stated "need a reliable closer and go from there."

 

I responded with:

 

 

 

This is the first mention of Montero.

 

The very next post is notin saying:

 

"No Fulmer?"

 

There is a complaint that the ideas we have posted are boring and aren't moving the needle. I post a crazy idea that signs a bunch of FA then follow it up with an actual FA plan that leaves space for an extension for Raffy. Fellow posters laud me as a mathematical genius. This post includes Montero as the closer to be signed.

 

Over the next few weeks, I mention Montero as an option to be the "clear closer." notin continues to mention "Fulmer and Montero."

 

I think notin and I both want Montero signed, but maybe for slightly different reasons. Your belief that he somehow posted about Montero as closer "weeks" before is made up, as usual. C'mon man.

 

LMAO.

 

You just bashed me for paying attention to this type of thing.

 

You crack me up.

 

Also, you listed a group of names we might want to sign. notin listed two specific names we should sign. You can' see the difference? C'Mon man!

[notin]

On 9/23, Old Red stated "need a reliable closer and go from there."

 

I responded with:

 

 

 

This is the first mention of Montero.

 

The very next post is notin saying:

 

"No Fulmer?"

 

There is a complaint that the ideas we have posted are boring and aren't moving the needle. I post a crazy idea that signs a bunch of FA then follow it up with an actual FA plan that leaves space for an extension for Raffy. Fellow posters laud me as a mathematical genius. This post includes Montero as the closer to be signed.

 

Over the next few weeks, I mention Montero as an option to be the "clear closer." notin continues to mention "Fulmer and Montero."

 

I think notin and I both want Montero signed, but maybe for slightly different reasons. Your belief that he somehow posted about Montero as closer "weeks" before is made up, as usual. C'mon man.

 

I was talking about Montero, Fulmer and Treinen before that. I stopped mentioning Treinen as he had both an option and an injury…

[Hugh2]

In the same piece at The Athletic Bowden lists the Mariners as the best fit for shortstop Xander Bogaerts:

 

An excerpt:

 

Bowden projects Bogaerts with a seven-year, $196 million contract.

 

Very close to my 207/7 year contract I predicted months ago. Lets see if my penny in the penny jar theory transfers over to baseball.

[harmony]

In the same piece at The Athletic Bowden lists the Mariners as the best fit for shortstop Xander Bogaerts:

 

An excerpt:

 

Bowden projects Bogaerts with a seven-year, $196 million contract.

 

FWIW Xander Bogaerts is a year younger than Robinson Cano was in December 2013 when the Seattle Mariners signed Cano to a 10-year, $240 million contract.

 

At the time Cano had posted 35.8 fWAR in 1,374 games with the Yankees while Bogaerts has posted 34.2 fWAR in 1,264 games with the Red Sox.

 

Interesting comp of middle infielders from the American League East.

[Hugh2]

Cots:

 

Paxton:

22:$6M, 23:$4M player option or 23-24 club options, to be exercised or declined simultaneously, at annual salaries of $13M plus performance bonuses earned in 2022

2022 performance bonuses: $250,000 each for 12, 14, 16, 18 starts

annual performance bonuses for 2023-24, if options are exercised: $250,000 each for 20, 22, 24, 26 starts, less 2022 bonuses earned

 

I'm a bit confused about the Paxton contract and options. It is my understanding he counted as $10M on the tax line, this year and earned $6M in 2022. That mean's he gets $4M, if the option is declined, right?

 

If so, that means the choice is basically:

 

$4M to go away

 

or

 

$26M/2

 

The net difference makes it essentially $24M/2.

 

It's reported that he's expected to exercise his option. Doesn't that put the Sox on the hook for 4 million AAV? seems like an ideal scenario for me.

[moonslav59]

2020 High Leverage OPS Against by Sox RP'ers

.382 Whitlock (70 PAs)

.558 Schreiber (119)

.610 Strahm (76)

.664 Barnes (64)

.690 Houck (80)

 

Late & Close

.488 Schreiber (45)

.544 Barnes (20)

.602 Houck (29)

.753 Ort (20)

.758 Whitlock (27)

 

Career OPS Against High Leverage/ Late & Close

.509/.601 Whitlock

.694/.659 Houck

[moonslav59]

It's reported that he's expected to exercise his option. Doesn't that put the Sox on the hook for 4 million AAV? seems like an ideal scenario for me.

 

I don't think so.

 

I think the new AAV for tax purposes would be $24M/2 or $12M a year.

[Hugh2]

I don't think so.

 

I think the new AAV for tax purposes would be $24M/2 or $12M a year.

 

Even if he exercises his option? which is only 4 million.

[Hugh2]

I think is the figure if the 13 million dollar option is exercised, which it will not be.

[mvp 78]

From 10/11:

 

$25 - Xander

$20 - Nimmo

$1 - Marisnick

$7.5 - Hill

$17.5 - Bassitt

$8 - Montero

$4 - Strahm

 

Remainder would go towards Raffy extension.

[mvp 78]

From 10/19

 

I'll bold the moves I think the Sox should actually do:

 

C - Vaz: 2/8

1B/DH - Mancini: 3/30

SS - Bogey: 6/150

OF - Myers: 2/20

OF - Beni: 4/50

SP - Bassitt: 3/60

SP - Kluber: 2/36

RP - Jansen: 1/16

RP - Montero: 1/12

RP - Fulmer: 1/10

[mvp 78]

10/19 again

 

I'm trying to right the wrongs of 2020, 2021 and 2022 by making the OF situation a bit stronger. I think adding a clear closer like Montero and having a full year of Whitlock and Houck in relief would make the pen pretty might.

 

It's more likely Whitlock is used as a cheaper SP option though.

[moonslav59]

Even if he exercises his option? which is only 4 million.

 

No, I meant if we give him the option.

 

No way he takes the $4M.

[moonslav59]

I think is the figure if the 13 million dollar option is exercised, which it will not be.

 

I think you subtract the $4M going forward. We paid $4M on the tax line in 2022 for the future option. That is subtracted, I believe.

[moonslav59]

10/19 again

 

Your true colors shining...

[Hugh2]

I don't think so.

 

I think the new AAV for tax purposes would be $24M/2 or $12M a year.

 

I'm pretty sure that's the AAV if the Sox opt-in. I'm a little surprised he's going to opt-in too, you would think he'd find someone to give him a little bit more than 4 million for one year but....reportedly there is interest on his side of doing so. That would be great for the Sox if he does.

[moonslav59]

I'm pretty sure that's the AAV if the Sox opt-in. I'm a little surprised he's going to opt-in too, you would think he'd find someone to give him a little bit more than 4 million for one year but....reportedly there is interest on his side of doing so. That would be great for the Sox if he does.

 

The Paxton deal, itself, put us over the tax line, as did the JBJ trade. Take either one back, and our future financial outlook looks much better.

 

Thanks, Bloom!

[Bellhorn04]

The Paxton deal, itself, put us over the tax line, as did the JBJ trade. Take either one back, and our future financial outlook looks much better.

 

Thanks, Bloom!

 

If we assume that the Red Sox want to re-set every third year, what this really does is make the re-set years 2024 and 2027 instead of 2025 and 2028.

 

Of course a plan to re-set every third year might be questionable in itself.