A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

Add 2-3 significant players, a couple key role players and let the kids fill in the rest. We should be fine, next season, if we choose well on the 4-5 key roles we add or re-sign players to fill.

 

Simple. Bring back Eovaldi (via QO) and Kike.

 

Bring in Nimmo (or ? Laureano?), Wong, and let’s say Fulmer and Treinen.

 

C:McGuire

1b: Hosmer

2b: Wong

3b: Devers (extended version)

SS: Story

LF: Verdugo

CF: Hernandez

RF: Nimmo (or ? Laureano?)

DH: Valdez / Dalbec / eventually Casas

BN: C Wong, Arroyo, maybe Pham

 

SP: Sale, Paxton, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Crawford with Winckowski, Mata, Seabold, Bello for depth. Maybe Ward, too.

BP: Treinen (CL), Houck, Whitlock, Fulmer, Taylor (hopefully), Barnes (ugh!), Brasier (slightly smaller ugh), and Walter or German.

 

Barnes could probably be swapped for James McCann, but I’m ok with McGuire and Wong as my catchers…

[Hugh2]

I'd rather go big, I want to sign Contreras, Haniger, Nimmo, and resign Bogaerts.

 

Lineup.

 

CF: Brandon Nimmo

3B: Rafael Devers

ss: Xander Bogaerts

RF: Mitch Haniger

2nd: Trevor Story

LF: Alex Verduo

C: Wilson Contreras

DH: Duran/Dalbec/Hosmer

1B: Tristan Casas.

 

If you have no faith in Paxton resign Wacha, and trade for a #2 pitcher.

 

Rotation:

Sale

#2

Wacha/Paxton

Pivetta

Whitlock.

[notin]

I'd rather go big, I want to sign Contreras, Haniger, Nimmo, and resign Bogaerts.

 

Lineup.

 

CF: Brandon Nimmo

3B: Rafael Devers

ss: Xander Bogaerts

RF: Mitch Haniger

2nd: Trevor Story

LF: Alex Verduo

C: Wilson Contreras

DH: Duran/Dalbec/Hosmer

1B: Tristan Casas.

 

If you have no faith in Paxton resign Wacha, and trade for a #2 pitcher.

 

Rotation:

Sale

#2

Wacha/Paxton

Pivetta

Whitlock.

 

If Eovaldi accepts his QO, that also replaces Paxton.

 

I do like Whitlock as a starter next year. And Schreiber (whom I forgot about) will certainly be in the pen. Davis (whom I did not forget about) should be non-tendered…

[Hugh2]

True, I would give Nathan a QO, and I'd be happy if he took it and if he doesn't.

 

I don't want to touch the bullpen, what I mean by that is, I'm not ready to give suggestions. I hate investing money in the pen, it seems more than any other function in baseball money spent on the bullpen is often wasted. These guys are so volatile from year to year. I'd have faith in Schreiber next year and I'm hoping Barnes can make a comeback. I think the Sox have talent percolating up to the top that can really help out in the pen. Braisers velo seems to be back up, and I really like Houck/Bello in there as well. But the Sox might want to keep Bello as a starter. If Barnes can even get back to 75% of the guy he was I like Schreiber/Houck/Barnes/Braiser there......but I think you still need to add one more piece to really solidify that pen.

[moonslav59]

Simple. Bring back Eovaldi (via QO) and Kike.

 

Bring in Nimmo (or ? Laureano?), Wong, and let’s say Fulmer and Treinen.

 

C:McGuire

1b: Hosmer

2b: Wong

3b: Devers (extended version)

SS: Story

LF: Verdugo

CF: Hernandez

RF: Nimmo (or ? Laureano?)

DH: Valdez / Dalbec / eventually Casas

BN: C Wong, Arroyo, maybe Pham

 

SP: Sale, Paxton, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Crawford with Winckowski, Mata, Seabold, Bello for depth. Maybe Ward, too.

BP: Treinen (CL), Houck, Whitlock, Fulmer, Taylor (hopefully), Barnes (ugh!), Brasier (slightly smaller ugh), and Walter or German.

 

Barnes could probably be swapped for James McCann, but I’m ok with McGuire and Wong as my catchers…

 

There is more left to see from Wacha and nate, but I'm leaning towards re-signing Wacha over Nate, right now. Our rotation was a problem, this year. How can you be okay losing Wacha, our best starter and Hill and just bring back the aging Nate with no other starters added?

 

I'd go Swanson over Wong, but Wong would be fine.

 

Nimmo or Laureano would be great with Kike.

[moonslav59]

I'd rather go big, I want to sign Contreras, Haniger, Nimmo, and resign Bogaerts.

 

Lineup.

 

CF: Brandon Nimmo

3B: Rafael Devers

ss: Xander Bogaerts

RF: Mitch Haniger

2nd: Trevor Story

LF: Alex Verduo

C: Wilson Contreras

DH: Duran/Dalbec/Hosmer

1B: Tristan Casas.

 

If you have no faith in Paxton resign Wacha, and trade for a #2 pitcher.

 

Rotation:

Sale

#2

Wacha/Paxton

Pivetta

Whitlock.

 

I'm not sure Bloom will have a big enough winter spending budget to sign all those guys, and no pitching, unless I "have faith in Paxton?" That's scary.

[Hugh2]

I'm not sure Bloom will have a big enough winter spending budget to sign all those guys, and no pitching, unless I "have faith in Paxton?" That's scary.

 

Well if you offer Eovaldi a QO you already have 4 starters on your roster before you factor in Bello/Houk/Crawford/Seabold. And, I did say I'd like to see a trade for a pitcher.

 

There's plenty of money in the budget. They likely have somewhere around 95-100 million to spend this offseason. And most of their main competition has nowhere near that much money.

[moonslav59]

Well if you offer Eovaldi a QO you already have 4 starters on your roster before you factor in Bello/Houk/Crawford/Seabold. And, I did say I'd like to see a trade for a pitcher.

 

There's plenty of money in the budget. They likely have somewhere around 95-100 million to spend this offseason. And most of their main competition has nowhere near that much money.

 

You are actually counting Sale and Paxton as 2 of the 4? I think counting them, combined, as one starter might be pushing our luck. Plus, you acted like you didn't really want to QO Nate or Wacha. (If we did, the budget won't allow your other ideas to all come true.)

 

I'm assuming Pivetta and Whitlock are the other two.

 

I'm okay with using Bello/Crawford/Seabold/Winckowski as our 6th>> starter, and maybe even our 5th and 6th starters, if we upgrade the top of the rotation. Bringing back an an aging Nate, who might be lucky to average 20 starts/year over this last 4 year contract is asking for big trouble.

 

Okay, we trade for a solid #1 or #2, and things change enough for me to be fine, but we also need to bring back Nate or Wacha or someone like them.

 

We can't use Houck and Whitlock as starters. Even one, we'd have to add to the pen in a major way.

 

Our staff needs more attention than the line-up.

[Hugh2]

You are actually counting Sale and Paxton as 2 of the 4? I think counting them, combined, as one starter might be pushing our luck. Plus, you acted like you didn't really want to QO Nate or Wacha. (If we did, the budget won't allow your other ideas to all come true.)

 

I'm assuming Pivetta and Whitlock are the other two.

 

I'm okay with using Bello/Crawford/Seabold/Winckowski as our 6th>> starter, and maybe even our 5th and 6th starters, if we upgrade the top of the rotation. Bringing back an an aging Nate, who might be lucky to average 20 starts/year over this last 4 year contract is asking for big trouble.

 

Okay, we trade for a solid #1 or #2, and things change enough for me to be fine, but we also need to bring back Nate or Wacha or someone like them.

 

We can't use Houck and Whitlock as starters. Even one, we'd have to add to the pen in a major way.

 

Our staff needs more attention than the line-up.

 

There's really not much of a market for starting pitching unless you want to make a run at DeGrome or Verlander. As good as a season as Verlander is having I wouldn't touch his 40 year old arm. Unfortunately you have to live with Sale, and hope he's healthy. This is why I want to explore the trade market and get a young cost controlled pitcher.

 

The rest absolutely fits in with the budget. Bogaerts/Nimmo/Haniger/Contreras probably costs you about $75-$80 which means you could do all that and have a guy accept a QO before going over the luxury tax. That might be cutting it close, but odds are the Sox plan on going over and have 20 million more afterward until the next threshold.

 

This seems like the best offseason to go big. When is the next time you're going to have $100 million to spend, good free agents at your exact holes, and most of the big market teams seemingly looking to have a quiet offseason? If you don't go big now, then there really isn't ever a time to do so.

 

I like winning.

[Hugh2]

This is based on last year's average salary per war of 5.9. We were able to sign a player like a Story for several million below that number. Players still want to play here but I figured inflation would cancel that out. Between that and rounding UP I figured that was a fair trade-off. I'm wondering if Wacha has played himself into a QO. it's pretty risky, but he's looking pretty good this year and looked like he didn't skip a beat after his last start.

 

Given the thin market for starting pitching it's entirely plausible to offer both him and Nate a QO. If they accept great, if they decline it makes signing two free agents with a loss of a draft pick attached that much easier. I don't think the rotation can count on Paxton, but I was so interested to see what he could do. If the elbow is fine I think they might consider picking up that option...but maybe not depending on what else they need and if they need that money elsewhere.

[moonslav59]

There's really not much of a market for starting pitching unless you want to make a run at DeGrome or Verlander. As good as a season as Verlander is having I wouldn't touch his 40 year old arm. Unfortunately you have to live with Sale, and hope he's healthy. This is why I want to explore the trade market and get a young cost controlled pitcher.

 

The rest absolutely fits in with the budget. Bogaerts/Nimmo/Haniger/Contreras probably costs you about $75-$80 which means you could do all that and have a guy accept a QO before going over the luxury tax. That might be cutting it close, but odds are the Sox plan on going over and have 20 million more afterward until the next threshold.

 

This seems like the best offseason to go big. When is the next time you're going to have $100 million to spend, good free agents at your exact holes, and most of the big market teams seemingly looking to have a quiet offseason? If you don't go big now, then there really isn't ever a time to do so.

 

I like winning.

 

I can't see any way signing those 4 for less than $90M combined is possible.

 

Maybe...

 

$27 x 6 Bogey

$24 x 3 Contreras

$24 x 5 Nimmo

$20 x 3 Haniger

 

These 4, alone, put us over the first tax line, even if they combine for $85M.

 

I like winning, too, and better pitching is needed to win.

 

I agree, trading for a SP'er is much more likely to work out well.

[Hugh2]

I can't see any way signing those 4 for less than $90M combined is possible.

 

Maybe...

 

$27 x 6 Bogey

$24 x 3 Contreras

$24 x 5 Nimmo

$20 x 3 Haniger

 

These 4, alone, put us over the first tax line, even if they combine for $85M.

 

I like winning, too, and better pitching is needed to win.

 

I agree, trading for a SP'er is much more likely to work out well.

 

I’d agree that signing all four isn’t very realistic. This more a boys Christmas wish list. But I don’t think those guys break 20 million. I think All 3 of Contreras, Nimmo, Haniger can be had for around 17-18

[moonslav59]

I’d agree that signing all four isn’t very realistic. This more a boys Christmas wish list. But I don’t think those guys break 20 million. I think All 3 of Contreras, Nimmo, Haniger can be had for around 17-18

 

Even if all 3 sign for $18M each and Bogey gets $27, that's almost the $84M we have to stay under the tax line.

 

No pitching cost added.

No depth cost added.

 

Take out Contreras, and it's realistic, IMO. Maybe add Kike instead of Haniger and get Narvaez, instead of Contreras.

[Hugh2]

Even if all 3 sign for $18M each and Bogey gets $27, that's almost the $84M we have to stay under the tax line.

 

No pitching cost added.

No depth cost added.

 

Take out Contreras, and it's realistic, IMO. Maybe add Kike instead of Haniger and get Narvaez, instead of Contreras.

 

Why do we have to stay under the tax line? Sox often go above it.

 

I don't want to be accused of blasphemy but I think it might be time to move on from Kike, he's a career .730 OPS guy, and a year after he plays a record amount he starts breaking down. I guess we can talk about health concern with Haniger too but I just don't Kike is built to be a long term starter.

 

Narvaez?????????? I can get on board with that. I think a McGuire/Narvaez battery could be very good in Boston.

[Hugh2]

Kike will likely be much cheaper. I can see Narvaez instead of Contreras, and Kike over Haniger and still resigning Bogey (or Turner) and bringing in Nimmo. Offer QO's to Eovalid/Wacha. If they accept great, that's one year and money coming off we will need for Devers. Of course, if the Sox are going over the tax limit next year they don't have to wait until the next season to resign Devers. That's another great reason to go over the luxury tax this year. Because you can spend a boatload of money to improve this team and punt Devers into next season.........But more of your money is going to players already on this team and not ADDING, if you're going to be over it anyways extend Devers now. I think they're going to make an honest effort to keep both Devers and Bogaerts, but call it 50/50 one of them walks.

[moonslav59]

Kike will likely be much cheaper. I can see Narvaez instead of Contreras, and Kike over Haniger and still resigning Bogey (or Turner) and bringing in Nimmo. Offer QO's to Eovalid/Wacha. If they accept great, that's one year and money coming off we will need for Devers. Of course, if the Sox are going over the tax limit next year they don't have to wait until the next season to resign Devers. That's another great reason to go over the luxury tax this year. Because you can spend a boatload of money to improve this team and punt Devers into next season.........But more of your money is going to players already on this team and not ADDING, if you're going to be over it anyways extend Devers now. I think they're going to make an honest effort to keep both Devers and Bogaerts, but call it 50/50 one of them walks.

 

We can also extend Devers now, or over the winter, and it doesn't kick in until 2024. Or, if we go over in 2023, we could make 2023 be part of the extension, probably lower the AAV, and that would help out going beyond 2023.

[moonslav59]

Why do we have to stay under the tax line? Sox often go above it.

 

I don't want to be accused of blasphemy but I think it might be time to move on from Kike, he's a career .730 OPS guy, and a year after he plays a record amount he starts breaking down. I guess we can talk about health concern with Haniger too but I just don't Kike is built to be a long term starter.

 

Narvaez?????????? I can get on board with that. I think a McGuire/Narvaez battery could be very good in Boston.

 

I'm not convinced we will have to stay under the tax line in 2021, but it will be year 2 taxes, and it would probably then mean we get under for 2024. (All the more reason to have sold off some contracts, this deadline, and be year 1 on taxes, next season, but Bloom had to keep the cry babies happy enough not to revolt, but I digress.)

[Nick]

I can't see any way signing those 4 for less than $90M combined is possible.

 

Maybe...

 

$27 x 6 Bogey

$24 x 3 Contreras

$24 x 5 Nimmo

$20 x 3 Haniger

 

These 4, alone, put us over the first tax line, even if they combine for $85M.

 

I like winning, too, and better pitching is needed to win.

 

I agree, trading for a SP'er is much more likely to work out well.

 

I think you would be a fool to give Xander $27M x 6.

 

We loved David Ortiz because of his production and his pay. Not sure if Xander is in David Ortiz territory.

[Old Red]

I'm not convinced we will have to stay under the tax line in 2021, but it will be year 2 taxes, and it would probably then mean we get under for 2024. (All the more reason to have sold off some contracts, this deadline, and be year 1 on taxes, next season, but Bloom had to keep the cry babies happy enough not to revolt, but I digress.)

 

Cry babies, shallow fans, and angry fans something new from you everyday. It’s automatic like a new word for the day. Like JDavis would say fittingly so Moon SLOP 101.

[moonslav59]

I think you would be a fool to give Xander $27M x 6.

 

We loved David Ortiz because of his production and his pay. Not sure if Xander is in David Ortiz territory.

 

I'm not for giving Bogey $27M x 6. I was just saying that's what it likely will take.

[Hugh2]

I think Bogeys season is going to hurt him a little, but GMs aren’t stupid they know how talented he is. I think he gets around 23-25 per year for 6-8

[moonslav59]

I think Bogeys season is going to hurt him a little, but GMs aren’t stupid they know how talented he is. I think he gets around 23-25 per year for 6-8

 

With inflation and a rising tax limit, I think he gets more than the $23.3M x 6 Story got, last season.

[Hugh2]

With inflation and a rising tax limit, I think he gets more than the $23.3M x 6 Story got, last season.

 

They were almost identical players in terms of value, and Xander is coming off a down year in which not a lot of big market teams are chasing talented short stops. I don’t think inflation will help Xander, maybe maybe he gets 25

[moonslav59]

They were almost identical players in terms of value, and Xander is coming off a down year in which not a lot of big market teams are chasing talented short stops. I don’t think inflation will help Xander, maybe maybe he gets 25

 

I hope I'm wrong. Maybe we keep him.

 

I'm not sure I'm sold on him being SS for many more years or his highly-touted leadership skills.

 

My guess is, the power numbers are down due to an unannounced injury.

[Old Red]

I hope I'm wrong. Maybe we keep him.

 

I'm not sure I'm sold on him being SS for many more years or his highly-touted leadership skills.

 

My guess is, the power numbers are down due to an unannounced injury.

When Raffy was asked for a one word description of Bogey in a recent interview he said Capt., so it doesn’t matter what you think of Bogey’s leadership skills it’s what those players in the clubhouse think, which I’m sure are different from yours.

[moonslav59]

When we signed Story, I felt that sealed Bogey's fate as becoming an ex-Sox player. It won't cost as much to add a solid 2Bman than a SS, and move Story back to SS.

 

That will leave more budget space for CF, Pitching and maybe upgrades ate 2-3 of these slots:

 

RF

1B

DH

C

more pitching

[oldtimer]

When we signed Story, I felt that sealed Bogey's fate as becoming an ex-Sox player. It won't cost as much to add a solid 2Bman than a SS, and move Story back to SS.

 

That will leave more budget space for CF, Pitching and maybe upgrades ate 2-3 of these slots:

 

RF

1B

DH

C

more pitching

 

If you look at Story as a SS, we have a very acceptable 2nd baseman in Arroyo. We also have a 1st baseman of the future in Casas. That would leave money for bolstering the OF and perhaps Tommy Pham is a keeper for a year or two. So Catcher and DH should be fillable and we should concentrate on pitching improvements and look to our prospects in later 2023 and 2024.

[Hugh2]

If you look at Story as a SS, we have a very acceptable 2nd baseman in Arroyo. We also have a 1st baseman of the future in Casas. That would leave money for bolstering the OF and perhaps Tommy Pham is a keeper for a year or two. So Catcher and DH should be fillable and we should concentrate on pitching improvements and look to our prospects in later 2023 and 2024.

 

Story, Arroyo, and Pham, all Bloom moves.

[jad]

They were almost identical players in terms of value, and Xander is coming off a down year in which not a lot of big market teams are chasing talented short stops. I don’t think inflation will help Xander, maybe maybe he gets 25

 

They don't look 'identical' to me, and Story's year is worlds worse than Bogaerts'. What stats are you looking at?

[Hugh2]

They don't look 'identical' to me, and Story's year is worlds worse than Bogaerts'. What stats are you looking at?

 

Story’s been hurt for a long time and is still 2nd on the team in RBIs, has better defense and more power. Look at their stats before this season as well, Story had a good bat, as good as Bogaerts. Slightly less average but more power better defense. The knock on Story was Coors field, him and Bogaerts had identical OPS playing away which bit that narrative in the butt. But don’t take my word for it, look up what Story has done the past decade.