A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't see jacko as a troll or ignorant.

 

He doesn't hide the fact that he is a Yankees fan. He offers an opposing view that is often biased, as many of ours are in the opposite direction.

 

I am 100% biased. I own that. We all are! Lol. Thank you for the defense

[moonslav59]

Instead of defending Jackoff, you could have used that time to start tonight's GT. I've taken care of that and I've broken all the rules regarding GT procedure.

 

Oh, the Sox are playing?

[moonslav59]

I am 100% biased. I own that. We all are! Lol. Thank you for the defense

 

No thanks needed.

[Hugh2]

Follow along young padawan.

 

You are talking about replacing what you lost......from a sub .500 last place team. You should be adding heavily to make a sub .500 last place team relevant. But you are talking about getting back to status quo, lol

 

Maybe McGuire is good next year. Maybe he gets arrested for yanking his crank again. Track record says he is not the player he has been in this incredible small SS. He has a .435BABIP in Boston. He's not for real.

 

Tommy Pham is the bat you've craved all year? The corner OFer with a .718OPS for the sox? Please keep him and start him 140 games next year, please. His WAR in Boston is 0.1. He's awful

 

Eric Hosmer is the worst first baseman in baseball. Has been for two years. You got him for free because he isnt worth anything. Your best bet is Casas shows he is ready and becomes a regular. Other than that, Dalbec and Hosmer suck at a premium offensive position

 

You added prospects who don't move the needle at all yet.

 

You lose a 6WAR SS. Wacha is a 2.1WAR player this year. Strahm and Eovaldi clock in at 1.4WAR total. Hill had 1.4WAR by himself. You are talking losing 11WAR from a LAST PLACE TEAM! You have the following holes for next year that don't have real players on your roster capable of filling them ( I am giving you the benefit of the doubt on 1b thinking Casas might be the guy and considering Kike the starter in CF)

 

Starting catcher

Second baseman (Story moves back to SS)

Left Field

Designated Hitter

Ace

#2

#3

Closer

 

The incumbents you are bringing back aren't elite beyond Devers. Kike is a good player when healthy. Verdugo a good player. Bello will probably be good next year. Pivetta is a reasonable good back end guy. I am assuming Houck and Whitlock are swing men/setup men next year as well. And I wouldnt count on s*** from Sale or Paxton, any production is a win

 

The FA market is headlined by a few guys I don't expect the sox to get (Turner is a SS and you have one and I don't see Judge leaving NY for Boston). The pitching market is saturated with older, injury prone pitchers who will need enormous AAV's. That isn't Bloom's style. You also have built a better farm but it is not ready to bring in prime time talent. You are stuck exactly where nobody wants to be, in the middle. By not selling off, you didnt improve that position. And you are in the best division in baseball with multiple teams on the upswing who have better big league talent AND better near big league ready premium talent

 

 

11 WAR should cost you about $66 million in free agency, well under the Sox budget.

[moonslav59]

11 WAR should cost you about $66 million in free agency, well under the Sox budget.

 

Casas/Hosmer > Dalbec at 1B

 

Dalbec/Hosmer/Arroyo > JD at DH

 

Healthy Story> 2022 Story

 

Healthy Kike > 2022 Kike

 

Refsnyder/Dugo > JBJ in RF

 

Pham/Dugo> Dugo/Duran in CF

 

2023 SS ???? vs 2023 SS

 

Vaz/Plawecki ???? vs McGuire/Wong

 

(Of course much of this is speculation, but we don't need all to come true, and we will likely add a RF'er and a decent SS, but we already have improved the outlook of several positions, even if just slightly.

 

Pitching:

 

We need to replace Wacha and Strahm

 

Nate & Hill were a wash in 2022, but they will have about 220 IP needing to be replaced.

IP/ERA

112/4.81 Hill

100/4.15 Nate

 

But also this...

77/5.47 Crawford

67/5.75 Wink

58/5.86 Brasier

54/5.47 Davis

38/4.23 Diekman

25/5.84 Robles

24/5.55 Ort

16/4.41 Valdez

10/6.10 Familia

7/21.60 DHern

 

More innings from... ?

78/3.41 Whitlock

62/2.18 Schreiber

60/3.15 Houck

53/4.39 Bello

36/3.96 Danish

10/3.60 Bazardo

10/2.79 Kelly

(probably more from Crawford & German, too)

Sale?

Paxton?

 

Offer Wacha a QO

 

Trade for a solid SP

 

Spend the $70M on SS, RF and the pen.

 

The team should be way better than 2022 and look better than 2021, on paper.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

You think Hosmer and Dalbec are better than JD?? I sincerely hope you are right because it will guarantee you another last place finish

[moonslav59]

You think Hosmer and Dalbec are better than JD?? I sincerely hope you are right because it will guarantee you another last place finish

 

The 2022 Sox DH's, yes...

 

Both have .750+ splits. Our DH had a .750 OPS, this year, and we have more than Hosmer and Dalbec to rotate at DH:

 

vs RHPs 2022

.967 Wong

.793 Casas

.732 Refsnyder

.723 Arroyo

.714 Cordero

.711 Pham

.619 Hosmer (rare reverse split)

 

vs LHP 2020

1.035 Refsnyder

.762 Dalbec

.761 Arroyo

.741 Pham

 

2018-2022

vs RHP

.783 Hosmer

.733 Pham

.732 Arroyo

.693 Dalbec

 

vs LHP

.858 Dalbec

.844 Pham

.808 Refsnyder

.754 Arroyo

 

I still think a rotation at 1B/DH of Casas, Hosmer, Dalbec, Arroyo and Pham/Refsnyder at DH only beats the 2022 JD/Dalbec/Cordero group.

 

[moonslav59]

You think Hosmer and Dalbec are better than JD?? I sincerely hope you are right because it will guarantee you another last place finish

 

We will upgrade at the positions we have the least faith in, but my point is, even the ones we choose to not upgrade will likely upgrade from within the system from 2022 and in some cases, 2021, too.

[notin]

Follow along young padawan.

 

You are talking about replacing what you lost......from a sub .500 last place team. You should be adding heavily to make a sub .500 last place team relevant. But you are talking about getting back to status quo, lol

 

Maybe McGuire is good next year. Maybe he gets arrested for yanking his crank again. Track record says he is not the player he has been in this incredible small SS. He has a .435BABIP in Boston. He's not for real.

 

Tommy Pham is the bat you've craved all year? The corner OFer with a .718OPS for the sox? Please keep him and start him 140 games next year, please. His WAR in Boston is 0.1. He's awful

 

Eric Hosmer is the worst first baseman in baseball. Has been for two years. You got him for free because he isnt worth anything. Your best bet is Casas shows he is ready and becomes a regular. Other than that, Dalbec and Hosmer suck at a premium offensive position

 

You added prospects who don't move the needle at all yet.

 

You lose a 6WAR SS. Wacha is a 2.1WAR player this year. Strahm and Eovaldi clock in at 1.4WAR total. Hill had 1.4WAR by himself. You are talking losing 11WAR from a LAST PLACE TEAM! You have the following holes for next year that don't have real players on your roster capable of filling them ( I am giving you the benefit of the doubt on 1b thinking Casas might be the guy and considering Kike the starter in CF)

 

Starting catcher

Second baseman (Story moves back to SS)

Left Field

Designated Hitter

Ace

#2

#3

Closer

 

The incumbents you are bringing back aren't elite beyond Devers. Kike is a good player when healthy. Verdugo a good player. Bello will probably be good next year. Pivetta is a reasonable good back end guy. I am assuming Houck and Whitlock are swing men/setup men next year as well. And I wouldnt count on s*** from Sale or Paxton, any production is a win

 

The FA market is headlined by a few guys I don't expect the sox to get (Turner is a SS and you have one and I don't see Judge leaving NY for Boston). The pitching market is saturated with older, injury prone pitchers who will need enormous AAV's. That isn't Bloom's style. You also have built a better farm but it is not ready to bring in prime time talent. You are stuck exactly where nobody wants to be, in the middle. By not selling off, you didnt improve that position. And you are in the best division in baseball with multiple teams on the upswing who have better big league talent AND better near big league ready premium talent

 

You lost all credibility when you said Eric Hosmer is the worst first baseman in baseball. And you said it on a forum filled with fans who spent half of 2022 watching Franchy Cordero, who will be the first player in history to have the position on his Topps card listed as “Attempted First Base”

 

Also you fail to acknowledge the other incredibly obvious way the prospects can help. And to acknowledge non-free ways to spend money, which you might think you’d recognize as a Yankee fan. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, feel free to ask Adam Ottavino…

[jad]

You think Hosmer and Dalbec are better than JD?? I sincerely hope you are right because it will guarantee you another last place finish

 

The anti-JD rhetoric is odd. But then, it's a variant of the "we-can't-afford BOgey" argument, Devers 'occasionally runs into one' claim, anti-Boggs, anti-Clemens, anti-Jim Rice. It's a specialty of RS fans.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The anti-JD rhetoric is odd. But then, it's a variant of the "we-can't-afford BOgey" argument, Devers 'occasionally runs into one' claim, anti-Boggs, anti-Clemens, anti-Jim Rice. It's a specialty of RS fans.

 

It's really just anti-pinstripes: anti-Boggs, anti-Clemens definitely when they were Yankees. Tiant, Ellsbury, Benintendi, even Youk looked dumb for about a week there...

[moonslav59]

You lost all credibility when you said Eric Hosmer is the worst first baseman in baseball. And you said it on a forum filled with fans who spent half of 2022 watching Franchy Cordero, who will be the first player in history to have the position on his Topps card listed as “Attempted First Base”

 

Also you fail to acknowledge the other incredibly obvious way the prospects can help. And to acknowledge non-free ways to spend money, which you might think you’d recognize as a Yankee fan. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, feel free to ask Adam Ottavino…

 

He also forgets how he looked at the 2020 team and thought it impossible to turn things around in just 1 year.

 

He projected doom 2 years ago.

 

He thought we'd be pretty good, this year.

 

We should be happy he's predicting doom, again. He's never right.

[moonslav59]

The anti-JD rhetoric is odd. But then, it's a variant of the "we-can't-afford BOgey" argument, Devers 'occasionally runs into one' claim, anti-Boggs, anti-Clemens, anti-Jim Rice. It's a specialty of RS fans.

 

JD was a fantastic player for us. He's on the decline.

 

I was only talking about improving on our .750 DH OPS, this year, not JD's overall .771 OPS, although I do think some sort of platoon can reach .775. (Dalbec, Arroyo, Pham, Hosmer, Refsnyder, Wong, EValdez)

 

It's not a slight on JD to have high hopes for other Sox players.

[jad]

It's really just anti-pinstripes: anti-Boggs, anti-Clemens definitely when they were Yankees. Tiant, Ellsbury, Benintendi, even Youk looked dumb for about a week there...

 

You don't recall how they were trashed the last few years they were here?

[mvp 78]

JD was a fantastic player for us. He's on the decline.

 

I was only talking about improving on our .750 DH OPS, this year, not JD's overall .771 OPS, although I do think some sort of platoon can reach .775. (Dalbec, Arroyo, Pham, Hosmer, Refsnyder, Wong, EValdez)

 

It's not a slight on JD to have high hopes for other Sox players.

 

I think you can get to 2022 JD Martinez' production for a much better $$$ and use that savings on pitching. Overall, you would have a much stronger team.

[mvp 78]

You don't recall how they were trashed the last few years they were here?

 

Clemens was trashed by the media. I don't remember fans really hating on him all that much.

 

Boggs hard the Margo chants thing and was never really an endearing player. Boggs had a bad season in '92 before he left (Scott Cooper had a higher wRC+), but that team was pretty bad too only winning 73 games. Greenwell sucked that year. Jack Clark sucked that year. That team was worse than the 2022 Red Sox.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You don't recall how they were trashed the last few years they were here?

 

I don't recall any being "trashed" unless "here" was this forum, where a few posters disliked Beni for some reason. I wasn't a forum member when Ellsbury left, but I was personally happy because I knew Bradley was a better centerfielder for his arm alone.

 

Boggs and Clemens were admired for their skills but had quirks (chicken, affairs, losing every big game to Dave Stewart).

 

Tiant was always beloved in Boston, from his first full year in '72 to his last game when threw a shutout on the final Sunday of '78 to clinch a tie after Game 162.

[notin]

Clemens was trashed by the media. I don't remember fans really hating on him all that much.

 

Boggs hard the Margo chants thing and was never really an endearing player. Boggs had a bad season in '92 before he left (Scott Cooper had a higher wRC+), but that team was pretty bad too only winning 73 games. Greenwell sucked that year. Jack Clark sucked that year. That team was worse than the 2022 Red Sox.

 

That was back when every member of the Herald writing staff each decided they would write only negative stories about each of the Sox stars. I believe Steve Buckley was the one tasked with hating Clemens…

[moonslav59]

I think you can get to 2022 JD Martinez' production for a much better $$$ and use that savings on pitching. Overall, you would have a much stronger team.

 

We may add a cheap 1B/DH or RF/DH type, but I doubt we spend much there. (I do think we sign a legitimate RF'er- maybe Nimmo, who would be seperate from the cheap DH type, and if we do sign a RF'er, the DH would probably be a 1B/DH type.)

 

vs RHPs

Casas (when not at 1B)

Hosmer

E Valdez (if not in AAA)

Cordero (if not in AAA)

 

vs LHPs

Dalbec

Refsnyder (when not in RF)

Pham (when not in LF)

Wong (when not catching)

Arroyo (when not at 2B)

 

That being said, if going with some sort of rotation involving players from this list, who make the 26, so we can spend more on pitching RF and SS, I'm all for that idea.

 

We don't need everyone on the list to hit well- just 2-3. One problem might be having to cycle through 2-3 failures before we hit on the 2-3 that work out, if ever. By then, too many losses might have occurred to recover from. (Kinda like 1B, this year.)

 

[moonslav59]

That was back when every member of the Herald writing staff each decided they would write only negative stories about each of the Sox stars. I believe Steve Buckley was the one tasked with hating Clemens…

 

Well, Roger did deserve some level of criticism:

 

1986-1992

160 ERA+/1.09 WHIP/3.44 K/BB

 

1993-1996- NO SMALL SAMPLE SIZE!

130 ERA+/1.29 WHIP/2.36 K/BB

 

Had he only started using steroids, earlier, he may have retired a Red Sox.

[mvp 78]

I don't recall any being "trashed" unless "here" was this forum, where a few posters disliked Beni for some reason. I wasn't a forum member when Ellsbury left, but I was personally happy because I knew Bradley was a better centerfielder for his arm alone.

 

Boggs and Clemens were admired for their skills but had quirks (chicken, affairs, losing every big game to Dave Stewart).

 

Tiant was always beloved in Boston, from his first full year in '72 to his last game when threw a shutout on the final Sunday of '78 to clinch a tie after Game 162.

 

Beni had a bad year in 2020, but I don't think many people were paying attention and those that were just thought he was injured. Really don't remember anyone trashing him at all.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We may add a cheap 1B/DH or RF/DH type, but I doubt we spend much there. (I do think we sign a legitimate RF'er- maybe Nimmo, who would be seperate from the cheap DH type, and if we do sign a RF'er, the DH would probably be a 1B/DH type.)

 

vs RHPs

Casas (when not at 1B)

Hosmer

E Valdez (if not in AAA)

Cordero (if not in AAA)

 

vs LHPs

Dalbec

Refsnyder (when not in RF)

Pham (when not in LF)

Wong (when not catching)

Arroyo (when not at 2B)

 

That being said, if going with some sort of rotation involving players from this list, who make the 26, so we can spend more on pitching RF and SS, I'm all for that idea.

 

We don't need everyone on the list to hit well- just 2-3. One problem might be having to cycle through 2-3 failures before we hit on the 2-3 that work out, if ever. By then, too many losses might have occurred to recover from. (Kinda like 1B, this year.)

 

 

It's bleak.

 

If we're being honest, there's no reasonable expectation for any has-been or never-has-been to become a star... much less for two or three of them to arrive at the same time in 2023. Who among them will even be an impact player some year?

 

Maybe Casas -- who at least we now know is a legitimate first baseman... maybe Valdez (would you take an Odor-type ceiling: 30 HR seasons with a ton of Ks and below avg D)?

[mvp 78]

That was back when every member of the Herald writing staff each decided they would write only negative stories about each of the Sox stars. I believe Steve Buckley was the one tasked with hating Clemens…

 

That's the media's job: trash the players, the coaches, the owners and sometimes blame the fans for being troglodytes or too snobby depending on the argument.

[moonslav59]

It's bleak.

 

If we're being honest, there's no reasonable expectation for any has-been or never-has-been to become a star... much less for two or three of them to arrive at the same time in 2023. Who among them will even be an impact player some year?

 

Maybe Casas -- who at least we now know is a legitimate first baseman... maybe Valdez (would you take an Odor-type ceiling: 30 HR seasons with a ton of Ks and below avg D)?

 

I'm not expecting greatness from this group, but we should be able to improve on our 2022 numbers at DH, 1B and RF without adding any major contract. I do hope we add a RF'er and keep Dugo in LF, but if we upgrade bigtime in other areas, only a slight improvement in these 3 areas may be all that is needed- NOT greatness:

 

1B: .668

270 PAs .606 Dalbec (bad D)

160 PAs .806 Cordero (horrific D)

61 PAs .699 Casas

45 PAs .611 Hosmer

 

DH: .750

565 PAs .771 JD

nobody else with more than 19 PAs, but were very bad, combined

 

RF .659

222 PAs .620 JBJ in RF only

189 PAs .863 Dugo

79 PAs .677 Ref

50 PAs .444 Arroyo

50 PAs .341 Cordero

23 PAs .435 Duran

 

 

 

[jad]

I don't recall any being "trashed" unless "here" was this forum, where a few posters disliked Beni for some reason. I wasn't a forum member when Ellsbury left, but I was personally happy because I knew Bradley was a better centerfielder for his arm alone.

 

Boggs and Clemens were admired for their skills but had quirks (chicken, affairs, losing every big game to Dave Stewart).

 

Tiant was always beloved in Boston, from his first full year in '72 to his last game when threw a shutout on the final Sunday of '78 to clinch a tie after Game 162.

 

I wasn't on this forum (if it existed!). But local media used to trash Boggs, Clemens, and Rice in particular. (I loved the laments: "We have to put up with Boggs; we'll NEVER get to see Cooper!"). But you're right that some players escaped this: Tiant is a good example; Evans is another.

[mvp 78]

I wasn't on this forum (if it existed!). But local media used to trash Boggs, Clemens, and Rice in particular. (I loved the laments: "We have to put up with Boggs; we'll NEVER get to see Cooper!"). But you're right that some players escaped this: Tiant is a good example; Evans is another.

 

As someone who had season tickets in Pawtucket, I don't know what they were expecting with Cooper. He was an ok prospect, but certainly not an upgrade over Boggs. Mo Vaughn was the only real prospect at the time.

[Bellhorn04]

That's the media's job: trash the players, the coaches, the owners and sometimes blame the fans for being troglodytes or too snobby depending on the argument.

 

Shaughnessy's latest column trashes every single Boston team, in the wake of the Celtics' scandal and the Pats' QB injury. I didn't even read it. Didn't have to.

[moonslav59]

As someone who had season tickets in Pawtucket, I don't know what they were expecting with Cooper. He was an ok prospect, but certainly not an upgrade over Boggs. Mo Vaughn was the only real prospect at the time.

 

I think Boggs hit in the low .700's his last year in BOS, but he still had good years left in him.

 

The idea that Cooper was some can't miss prospect was a joke.

[mvp 78]

Shaughnessy's latest column trashes every single Boston team, in the wake of the Celtics' scandal and the Pats' QB injury. I didn't even read it. Didn't have to.

 

He didn't have to do that to the Cannons though. Spending 6 paragraphs on the Revolution was a little excessive too.

[mvp 78]

I think Boggs hit in the low .700's his last year in BOS, but he still had good years left in him.

 

The idea that Cooper was some can't miss prospect was a joke.

 

The young players at the time were:

Vaughn

Quantril

Ken Ryan

Cooper

Plantier

Naehring

Valentin

Wedge

Flaherty

Zupcic

 

The pitching in the upper minors was absolute garbage for the Sox around then. Of those guys, the only legitimate future "star" was Mo. Valentin, Cooper and Plantier were kinda bunched together further below him and none of them were really seen as guaranteed MLB starters. As it turned out, the most unheralded guy, Valentin, had the best career out of the three.