A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[moonslav59]

Just make a list of every prospect that you think should be untouchable, and then decide which of them to trade…

 

You can't get a top starter by trading prospects #10,11, 12, 13 and 14.

 

My guess is any such trade would have to meet one of these criteria:

 

1. #2 Casas or #1 Mayer plus 1-2 others between 10-20.

 

2. Two from #5 Bleis, #4 Yorke, #6 Rafaela or #7 Mata plus maye a 10-20.

 

3. One from #5 Bleis, #4 Yorke or #6 Rafaela plus two from #7 Mata, #8 Walter, #10 Paulino, #15 Wikelman

 

I'm not sure Bloom has it in him. It might take convincing from Kennedy or someone else.

 

I am convince of one thing: we can't get way better without adding a top pitcher as just the first of several pitching additions or bring-backs (Wacha, too?)

[notin]

I can't get on board with this. We need a durable horse in the rotation, and someone better than Pivetta. Syndergaard only checks one of those boxes.

 

Over 25 starts twice in his career (2016 & 2019)

Over 22 starts 5 times in 8 years.

24 starts in his last 3 years with a 4.17 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.

 

I really think we need to trade for an ace. I know it sucks parting with top prospects, and Bloom might need to be forced to do it, but I don't see any FA pitcher that wows me.

 

 

I’d rather gamble on Syndergaard than find an ace that wowed me and sign him to a Gerrit Cole contract…

[moonslav59]

I’d rather gamble on Syndergaard than find an ace that wowed me and sign him to a Gerrit Cole contract…

 

True, but there is no FA on the market even like Cole.

 

Offer Wacha QO and trade for Lopez.

[notin]

True, but there is no FA on the market even like Cole.

 

Offer Wacha QO and trade for Lopez.

 

On board. Although I’m willing to accept any of a range of Marlins’ pitchers…

[moonslav59]

On board. Although I’m willing to accept any of a range of Marlins’ pitchers…

 

Yes, but Lopez may cost the less due to 2 yrs of control v 3, 4 or 5+.

[moonslav59]

I ask, was Rich Hill's $5M/1 deal, good, bad or okay?

 

4.56 ERA

22 GS (2nd on team)

103 IP (3rd on team)

[Old Red]

I ask, was Rich Hill's $5M/1 deal, good, bad or okay?

 

4.56 ERA

22 GS (2nd on team)

103 IP (3rd on team)

D. All the above.

[Bellhorn04]

I ask, was Rich Hill's $5M/1 deal, good, bad or okay?

 

4.56 ERA

22 GS (2nd on team)

103 IP (3rd on team)

 

I'd go with okay.

[moonslav59]

I'd go with okay.

 

Me, too. If I had to pick between the good side of okay or the bad, I'd go good.

[moonslav59]

D. All the above.

 

Good answer. He's been all over the map.

[notin]

Me, too. If I had to pick between the good side of okay or the bad, I'd go good.

 

It was ok. That his 103 IP is third on the team says more about the health of the rest of the staff than it does about Hill…

[moonslav59]

It was ok. That his 103 IP is third on the team says more about the health of the rest of the staff than it does about Hill…

 

It's about what I hoped for, and he might reach 115-120.

[mvp 78]

Keep Wacha, sign Syndergaard and at least two relievers, and pray like hell Sale comes back?

 

Just a guess I'm throwing out there.

 

Is Syndergaard that good anymore? His k rate is way down from what I remember the last time I looked. He seems ok, but he's not the guy he was with the Mets.

[mvp 78]

Mixed emotions on Syndergaard.

 

If he can pitch like 2018-2019 Syndergaard or better yet 2016 - he would be great. But he’s been average to below since for a variety of reasons and he’s already taken a one year “show me” contract. With the Syndergaarden Cop, the shorter the deal the better. And that makes him a tough sign, because someone else will always pay more for his name…

He just can't pitch that way anymore if you look at his statcast. He just isn't that guy.

 

His xERA, xBA, xSLG, Brl are all bottom 23rd and worse. He's a pitch to contact guy now who is still getting hit pretty hard.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/noah-syndergaard-592789?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

[Hugh2]

Is Syndergaard that good anymore? His k rate is way down from what I remember the last time I looked. He seems ok, but he's not the guy he was with the Mets.

 

No, but he's also only 29, and his struggles was attributed to injury. One has to wonder if given a clean bill of health if he could become that dominate pitcher again. He could be had on a 1 year deal to re-establish his value, and if he does, someone is going to get a steal out of him.

[moonslav59]

No, but he's also only 29, and his struggles was attributed to injury. One has to wonder if given a clean bill of health if he could become that dominate pitcher again. He could be had on a 1 year deal to re-establish his value, and if he does, someone is going to get a steal out of him.

 

We have too many wings and prayers on our staff already.

 

We need durability and known skillsets. (Yes, all pitchers are a gamble, but we need to seek stability.)

[Hugh2]

We have too many wings and prayers on our staff already.

 

We need durability and known skillsets. (Yes, all pitchers are a gamble, but we need to seek stability.)

 

Maybe, but if you're letting Wacha/Eovaldi go (or at least one of them) how many pitchers do you have locked down? Pivetta? if you count on Sale being healthy you still have 3 open slots. Maybe Bello locks one of those down, maybe not, maybe he gets fatigued at the end of the year. You know what they say (you can never have enough pitching).

 

Sox have a lot of money to spend, but they also have a lot of holes, So even if they did go out and spend 40 million a year on DeGrom they still need help. If Noah is super cheap, why not take that flier? you know what they say....you can never have enough pitching.

[Hugh2]

I think with a guy like him, if you can get him cheap on one year and you like the medicals it's a low-risk high reward scenario.

[moonslav59]

Maybe, but if you're letting Wacha/Eovaldi go (or at least one of them) how many pitchers do you have locked down? Pivetta? if you count on Sale being healthy you still have 3 open slots. Maybe Bello locks one of those down, maybe not, maybe he gets fatigued at the end of the year. You know what they say (you can never have enough pitching).

 

Sox have a lot of money to spend, but they also have a lot of holes, So even if they did go out and spend 40 million a year on DeGrom they still need help. If Noah is super cheap, why not take that flier? you know what they say....you can never have enough pitching.

 

I think we need to trade for an ace.

 

I'd offer a QO to Wacha, and not Nate, but if they bring back both, we still need an ace.

 

I'd rather trade Casas or Yorke & Rafaela for an ace than spend half our winter budget on a FA pitcher.

[mvp 78]

No, but he's also only 29, and his struggles was attributed to injury. One has to wonder if given a clean bill of health if he could become that dominate pitcher again. He could be had on a 1 year deal to re-establish his value, and if he does, someone is going to get a steal out of him.

 

He's still injured? He pitched for the whole season. He just sat out for 2 years. When is he going to be healthy?

[mvp 78]

Maybe, but if you're letting Wacha/Eovaldi go (or at least one of them) how many pitchers do you have locked down? Pivetta? if you count on Sale being healthy you still have 3 open slots. Maybe Bello locks one of those down, maybe not, maybe he gets fatigued at the end of the year. You know what they say (you can never have enough pitching).

 

Sox have a lot of money to spend, but they also have a lot of holes, So even if they did go out and spend 40 million a year on DeGrom they still need help. If Noah is super cheap, why not take that flier? you know what they say....you can never have enough pitching.

 

Jake wants $50.

 

Noah signed for $21 last offseason. How cheap would he be?

[mvp 78]

I think we need to trade for an ace.

 

I'd offer a QO to Wacha, and not Nate, but if they bring back both, we still need an ace.

 

I'd rather trade Casas or Yorke & Rafaela for an ace than spend half our winter budget on a FA pitcher.

 

I think trading Yorke now is trading him when his value is at a low point and doesn't make sense. For Rafaela, it may be at at it's highest point.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think we need to trade for an ace.

 

I'd offer a QO to Wacha, and not Nate, but if they bring back both, we still need an ace.

 

I'd rather trade Casas or Yorke & Rafaela for an ace than spend half our winter budget on a FA pitcher.

 

I'm the opposite; I'd rather spend the money on pitching and not trade prospects who may be a year or two away. This isn't 2013, with a core of veteran champions already in place. There may be too many potential holes to fill, and to hope all new additions can make contributions to another worst-to-first.

 

Buy some starters and relievers, add a bat, and a glove if X leaves. Begin the true rebuild by accumulating reliable pitching, and let the core regulars develop.

[mvp 78]

I'd go with okay.

 

Worth $10M according to FanGraphs!

[Bellhorn04]

Worth $10M according to FanGraphs!

 

1.3 fWAR 0.4 bWAR

 

In the world of analytics, the discrepancies between fWAR and bWAR for pitchers really stand out.

[mvp 78]

1.3 fWAR 0.4 bWAR

 

In the world of analytics, the discrepancies between fWAR and bWAR for pitchers really stand out.

 

funWAR and boringWAR.

[Hugh2]

Jake wants $50.

 

Noah signed for $21 last offseason. How cheap would he be?

 

Probably a lot cheaper, because he’s probably not worth it. Velocity is gone so he’s probably not worth, certainly he isn’t worth $21 million. But would you take 5 million dollar flier on him? Maybe an incentive laden deal? That, perhaps might be worth exploring.

[moonslav59]

I think trading Yorke now is trading him when his value is at a low point and doesn't make sense. For Rafaela, it may be at at it's highest point.

 

I don't think GMs drop stock prices as much as we think, but point well taken. Rafaela and Mata, then.

[Hugh2]

I think Rafaela needs to be included into our future outfield plans. His defense is amazing, JBJ level and he can do it at CF and at SS. If he an at least be an average hitter that's going to be a tremendously valuable guy. With the new rule changes, up the middle position players are going to be as valuable as ever.

 

The time to go all in, may be next season. I hate to say it, but there's too many holes to fix, it might take a cleaner bill of health and luck to go all the way next year but I think it's reasonable to assume they should compete.

 

I also want to see how this young pitching pans out. Having a clearer picture of what guys like Houck, Whitlock, Bellow, Crawford, Mata and others can provide and what roles they may play will make investing in closing the gaps that much easier.

[moonslav59]

I think Rafaela needs to be included into our future outfield plans. His defense is amazing, JBJ level and he can do it at CF and at SS. If he an at least be an average hitter that's going to be a tremendously valuable guy. With the new rule changes, up the middle position players are going to be as valuable as ever.

 

The time to go all in, may be next season. I hate to say it, but there's too many holes to fix, it might take a cleaner bill of health and luck to go all the way next year but I think it's reasonable to assume they should compete.

 

I also want to see how this young pitching pans out. Having a clearer picture of what guys like Houck, Whitlock, Bellow, Crawford, Mata and others can provide and what roles they may play will make investing in closing the gaps that much easier.

 

I'd be fine waiting it our for all our prospects to mature. Look what the 2011 draft class (and IFA signings around then) did for us.

 

I just don't think Sox Nation can handle another down year, as we wait it out.

 

I think we will make one big splash trade of prospects for a young, controllable star.