2022 Prospects

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com:

 

Jacob Wallace & Other Greenville RP'ers: http://news.soxprospects.com/2022/03/scouting-report-updates-jacob-wallace.html

 

PART 2: http://news.soxprospects.com/2022/03/scouting-report-updates-brendan.html

[mvp 78]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-conversation-with-red-sox-pitching-prospect-brandon-walter/

 

Brandon Walter interview.

[mvp 78]

Fangraphs ranking has been posted.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/boston-red-sox-top-51-prospects-2022/

 

1 Triston Casas 22.2 AAA 1B 2023 55

2 Marcelo Mayer 18.6 R SS 2025 55

3 Nick Yorke 19.9 A+ 2B 2025 55

4 Wilkelman Gonzalez 19.3 A SP 2024 45+

5 Gilberto Jimenez 21.7 A CF 2023 45+

6 Miguel Bleis 18.0 R RF 2025 45

7 Connor Seabold 26.1 MLB SP 2022 45

8 Brayan Bello 22.8 AA SIRP 2022 45

9 Ronaldo Hernández 24.3 AAA C 2022 45

10 Brandon Walter 25.5 A+ SP 2023 45

11 Jeter Downs 23.6 AAA 2B 2022 40+

12 Bryan Mata 22.9 AA MIRP 2022 40+

13 Jay Groome 23.6 AA SP 2022 40+

14 Tyler McDonough 22.3 A CF 2025 40+

15 David Hamilton 24.5 AA SS 2023 40+

16 Blaze Jordan 19.2 A 1B 2025 40+

17 Alex Binelas 21.1 A 3B 2025 40+

18 Thaddeus Ward 25.2 AA MIRP 2023 40+

19 Noah Song 24.8 A- SP 2023 40+

20 Brainer Bonaci 19.7 A 3B 2024 40

21 Kutter Crawford 25.9 MLB SP 2022 40

22 Eduard Bazardo 26.5 MLB SIRP 2022 40

23 Connor Wong 25.8 MLB C 2022 40

24 Jacob Wallace 23.6 A+ SIRP 2023 40

25 Juan Chacon 19.3 R CF 2024 40

26 Cameron Cannon 24.4 AA 2B 2023 40

27 Josh Winckowski 23.7 AAA MIRP 2022 40

28 Niko Kavadas 22.7 A DH 2025 40

29 Nick Decker 22.4 A RF 2023 40

30 Chih-Jung Liu 22.9 A SIRP 2024 40

31 Matthew Lugo 20.8 A SS 2024 40

32 Frank German 24.5 AA SIRP 2022 40

33 Eduardo Lopez 19.8 A CF 2023 35+

34 Eddinson Paulino 19.7 R SS 2024 35+

35 Zack Kelly 27.0 AAA SIRP 2023 35+

36 Bradley Blalock 21.2 A SP 2025 35+

37 Enderso Lira 18.4 R C 2026 35+

38 Chris Murphy 23.8 AA MIRP 2023 35+

39 Brendan Cellucci 23.7 A+ SIRP 2022 35+

40 Freili Encarnacion 17.1 R 3B 2027 35+

41 Jeremy Wu-Yelland 22.7 A+ SIRP 2024 35+

42 Tyler Dearden 23.7 A+ LF 2024 35+

43 Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz 17.9 R SIRP 2026 35+

44 Naysbel Marcano 19.8 R C 2023 35+

45 Durbin Feltman 24.9 AAA SIRP 2022 35+

46 Andrew Politi 25.8 AA SIRP 2022 35+

47 Dylan Spacke 24.0 A+ SIRP 2023 35+

48 Wyatt Olds 22.6 A SIRP 2025 35+

49 Bryan Gonzalez 20.5 R RF 2024 35+

50 Luis Perales 18.9 R SIRP 2025 35+

51 Reidis Sena 20.9 R SIRP 2024 35+

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs ranking has been posted.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/boston-red-sox-top-51-prospects-2022/

 

1 Triston Casas 22.2 AAA 1B 2023 55

2 Marcelo Mayer 18.6 R SS 2025 55

3 Nick Yorke 19.9 A+ 2B 2025 55

4 Wilkelman Gonzalez 19.3 A SP 2024 45+

5 Gilberto Jimenez 21.7 A CF 2023 45+

6 Miguel Bleis 18.0 R RF 2025 45

7 Connor Seabold 26.1 MLB SP 2022 45

8 Brayan Bello 22.8 AA SIRP 2022 45

9 Ronaldo Hernández 24.3 AAA C 2022 45

10 Brandon Walter 25.5 A+ SP 2023 45

11 Jeter Downs 23.6 AAA 2B 2022 40+

12 Bryan Mata 22.9 AA MIRP 2022 40+

13 Jay Groome 23.6 AA SP 2022 40+

14 Tyler McDonough 22.3 A CF 2025 40+

15 David Hamilton 24.5 AA SS 2023 40+

16 Blaze Jordan 19.2 A 1B 2025 40+

17 Alex Binelas 21.1 A 3B 2025 40+

18 Thaddeus Ward 25.2 AA MIRP 2023 40+

19 Noah Song 24.8 A- SP 2023 40+

20 Brainer Bonaci 19.7 A 3B 2024 40

21 Kutter Crawford 25.9 MLB SP 2022 40

22 Eduard Bazardo 26.5 MLB SIRP 2022 40

23 Connor Wong 25.8 MLB C 2022 40

24 Jacob Wallace 23.6 A+ SIRP 2023 40

25 Juan Chacon 19.3 R CF 2024 40

26 Cameron Cannon 24.4 AA 2B 2023 40

27 Josh Winckowski 23.7 AAA MIRP 2022 40

28 Niko Kavadas 22.7 A DH 2025 40

29 Nick Decker 22.4 A RF 2023 40

30 Chih-Jung Liu 22.9 A SIRP 2024 40

31 Matthew Lugo 20.8 A SS 2024 40

32 Frank German 24.5 AA SIRP 2022 40

33 Eduardo Lopez 19.8 A CF 2023 35+

34 Eddinson Paulino 19.7 R SS 2024 35+

35 Zack Kelly 27.0 AAA SIRP 2023 35+

36 Bradley Blalock 21.2 A SP 2025 35+

37 Enderso Lira 18.4 R C 2026 35+

38 Chris Murphy 23.8 AA MIRP 2023 35+

39 Brendan Cellucci 23.7 A+ SIRP 2022 35+

40 Freili Encarnacion 17.1 R 3B 2027 35+

41 Jeremy Wu-Yelland 22.7 A+ SIRP 2024 35+

42 Tyler Dearden 23.7 A+ LF 2024 35+

43 Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz 17.9 R SIRP 2026 35+

44 Naysbel Marcano 19.8 R C 2023 35+

45 Durbin Feltman 24.9 AAA SIRP 2022 35+

46 Andrew Politi 25.8 AA SIRP 2022 35+

47 Dylan Spacke 24.0 A+ SIRP 2023 35+

48 Wyatt Olds 22.6 A SIRP 2025 35+

49 Bryan Gonzalez 20.5 R RF 2024 35+

50 Luis Perales 18.9 R SIRP 2025 35+

51 Reidis Sena 20.9 R SIRP 2024 35+

 

Your man, Connor Seabold is up pretty high!

 

Rule 5 being cancelled may have kept one or two on this list.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Your man, Connor Seabold is up pretty high!

 

Rule 5 being cancelled may have kept one or two on this list.

 

Seabold is already 26 years old?! And rated 20 spots higher than Winckowski?!

 

Maybe the most interesting jump is the Sox' top pitching prospect is now Wilkelman G., age 19, at 4th... ahead of Bello, 23, at 8th.

 

Question: do these rankings reflect an order of "best" prospects or just who is most likely to get called up first? (ex: Seabold's #7 ranking)

[notin]

Seabold is already 26 years old?! And rated 20 spots higher than Winckowski?!

 

Maybe the most interesting jump is the Sox' top pitching prospect is now Wilkelman G., age 19, at 4th... ahead of Bello, 23, at 8th.

 

Question: do these rankings reflect an order of "best" prospects or just who is most likely to get called up first? (ex: Seabold's #7 ranking)

 

Most likely to contribute at the MLB level…

[mvp 78]

Most likely to contribute at the MLB level…

 

I'm not so sure. Bleis is so far away. I'm not sure he's more likely to contribute at the MLB level than many of the names that come after him. Also, I don't think Jimenez ever makes MLB.

[notin]

I'm not so sure. Bleis is so far away. I'm not sure he's more likely to contribute at the MLB level than many of the names that come after him. Also, I don't think Jimenez ever makes MLB.

 

And that’s why your personal rankings would differ…

[moonslav59]

Seabold is already 26 years old?! And rated 20 spots higher than Winckowski?!

 

Maybe the most interesting jump is the Sox' top pitching prospect is now Wilkelman G., age 19, at 4th... ahead of Bello, 23, at 8th.

 

Question: do these rankings reflect an order of "best" prospects or just who is most likely to get called up first? (ex: Seabold's #7 ranking)

 

Well, the Gonzalez ranking goes against the sooner call-up theory.

 

I think after Mayer, Casas and Yorke, it's pretty much a guessing game.

[moonslav59]

And that’s why your personal rankings would differ…

 

Jimenez and McDonough seem to be higher than other ranking sites.

[moonslav59]

I found this "consensu ranking list, which averages out Soxprospects, BA, BaseballProspectus, Law and fangraphs:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/1/24/22898832/red-sox-top-prospects-2021-marcelo-mayer-triston-casas-nick-yorke-jarren-duran-bryan-mata

 

 

I put a space between big gaps.

 

1. Mayer 1.8

2. Casas 2.0

3. Yorke 2.6

 

4. Duran 4.5

5. Bello 5.6

6. Downs 6.6

 

7. Mata 9.4

8. Groome 9.8

9. Jordan 10.6

10. Jimenez, Walter, Gonzalez 11.4

 

13. Seabold 13.4

14. Blies 14.6

15. Winckowski 16.2

16. R Hernandez 17.0

17. Lugo 18.6

 

This list seems pretty reasonable, and the gaps as well.

Edited March 17, 2022 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Brian Mata interview:

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/03/boston-red-sox-no-2-pitching-prospect-bryan-mata-im-still-young-and-ill-still-be-able-to-make-an-impact.html

[mvp 78]

MLB Pipeline Top 30

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/red-sox-top-30-prospects-list-2022-preseason?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

Best tools

Players are graded on a 20-80 scouting scale for future tools -- 20-30 is well below average, 40 is below average, 50 is average, 60 is above average and 70-80 is well above average. Players in parentheses have the same grade.

 

Hit: 65 -- Nick Yorke

Power: 65 -- Triston Casas

Run: 70 -- Jarren Duran (Gilberto Jimenez)

Arm: 70 -- Brainer Bonaci (Ronaldo Hernandez)

Defense: 60 -- Ceddanne Rafaela (Marcelo Mayer, Gilberto Jimenez)

Fastball: 65 -- Bryan Mata

Curveball: 55 -- Jay Groome (Kutter Crawford, Wilkelman Gonzalez)

Slider: 60 -- Brandon Walter (Bryan Mata, Thad Ward, Josh Winckowski)

Changeup: 60 -- Connor Seabold (Brayan Bello)

Control: 55 -- Connor Seabold (Brandon Walter)

 

Top 30: (2022 ETA in bold)

Mayer

Casas

Yorke

Duran

Bello

Downs

Jordan

Mata

Walter

Wikelman Gonzalez

Murphy

Groome

Lugo

Winckowski

Seabold

Ward

Bleis

Jimenez

McDonough

Paulino

Bonaci

Binelas

Hickey

Ronaldo Hernandez

Crawford

Scott

Koss

Rafaela

Decker

Liu

[moonslav59]

MLB Pipeline Top 30

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/red-sox-top-30-prospects-list-2022-preseason?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

Best tools

Players are graded on a 20-80 scouting scale for future tools -- 20-30 is well below average, 40 is below average, 50 is average, 60 is above average and 70-80 is well above average. Players in parentheses have the same grade.

 

Hit: 65 -- Nick Yorke

Power: 65 -- Triston Casas

Run: 70 -- Jarren Duran (Gilberto Jimenez)

Arm: 70 -- Brainer Bonaci (Ronaldo Hernandez)

Defense: 60 -- Ceddanne Rafaela (Marcelo Mayer, Gilberto Jimenez)

Fastball: 65 -- Bryan Mata

Curveball: 55 -- Jay Groome (Kutter Crawford, Wilkelman Gonzalez)

Slider: 60 -- Brandon Walter (Bryan Mata, Thad Ward, Josh Winckowski)

Changeup: 60 -- Connor Seabold (Brayan Bello)

Control: 55 -- Connor Seabold (Brandon Walter)

 

Top 30: (2022 ETA in bold)

Mayer

Casas

Yorke

Duran

Bello

Downs

Jordan

Mata

Walter

Wikelman Gonzalez

Murphy

Groome

Lugo

Winckowski

Seabold

Ward

Bleis

Jimenez

McDonough

Paulino

Bonaci

Binelas

Hickey

Ronaldo Hernandez

Crawford

Scott

Koss

Rafaela

Decker

Liu

 

10 players with possible 2022 ETAs. Good sign.

[jacksonianmarch]

Anyone get the sneaking suspicion that Bloom is essentially waiting to hand the DH spot to Dalbec and will likely keep Casas down until JDM moves on?

[mvp 78]

Anyone get the sneaking suspicion that Bloom is essentially waiting to hand the DH spot to Dalbec and will likely keep Casas down until JDM moves on?

 

I think he'll call up Casas regardless of JDM being on the roster. Dalbec probably should be a DH.

[Hugh2]

I think there's a very good chance we don't see Casas until early 2023, and that's fine.

[mvp 78]

10 players with possible 2022 ETAs. Good sign.

 

I don't see Groome or Bello making it this year.

[Hugh2]

I don't see Groome or Bello making it this year.

 

That seems very suspect. As a general rule of thumb, people tend to over estimate how soon someone will make the majors AND how soon they will actually contribute in a meaningful way. They can't all be Mookie Betts.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't think anyone will hold Casas back for long. He already proved himself last summer -- batting third for the Olympic team, playing with ex-big leaguers -- and was more ready, in my opinion, to handle a Boston promotion than Duran. I'm not ruling out a midseason trade of JD that may create a roster opening as a corresponding move, but don't anticipate the Sox or Bloom manipulating service time or worrying about age. They haven't with other top prospects in the past.

[Old Red]

I don't think anyone will hold Casas back for long. He already proved himself last summer -- batting third for the Olympic team, playing with ex-big leaguers -- and was more ready, in my opinion, to handle a Boston promotion than Duran. I'm not ruling out a midseason trade of JD that may create a roster opening as a corresponding move, but don't anticipate the Sox or Bloom manipulating service time or worrying about age. They haven't with other top prospects in the past.

 

Depends on a lot of things. First how Casas starts out the season, and then how Bobby D, and the Sox themselves are doing. I don’t think JD will be moved as long as the Sox are in contention. Any number of things could happen, and change at a moments notice like an injury.

[Hugh2]

I don't think anyone will hold Casas back for long. He already proved himself last summer -- batting third for the Olympic team, playing with ex-big leaguers -- and was more ready, in my opinion, to handle a Boston promotion than Duran. I'm not ruling out a midseason trade of JD that may create a roster opening as a corresponding move, but don't anticipate the Sox or Bloom manipulating service time or worrying about age. They haven't with other top prospects in the past.

 

I think it's almost a scientific fact that fans always think a prospect is ready before he actually is. I also don't think there's any evidence he's "more ready than Duran is" even by minor league at-bats, which isn't as telling as one would think.

 

Casas has 33 at bats above AA ball, Duran had 244 with a higher OPS than Casas. I think we're just dreaming on Casas because he has that shiny #1 prospect tag. I think he's going to be stud.........but he could easily not be ready and that's ok.

[Hugh2]

23 at-bats in the Olympics don't close the gap from effectively jumping from AA to the majors. He's still developing his power, only 14 home runs last year. People are saying he's the kind of hitter who will eventually hit 30 a year and I think and hope they're right but he only hit 14 last year mostly in AA and we're saying he's ready.

 

Why do we never learn our lessons with prospects and always want them rushed as fans? Dalbec looked good enough down the stretch last year to allow Casas to come up in due time. No need to rush anyone. I'd rather have him start the season in 2023 more ready and get that extra draft pick per the new rules of starting rookies and getting picks in the finish high in ROY/MVP voting.

 

Still, I think there's decent chance we see him at the end of this year. If there are injuries and he's mashing he will get the call up. I'd set the over/under on July 20th. I'll take the over.

[Bellhorn04]

I think it's almost a scientific fact that fans always think a prospect is ready before he actually is. I also don't think there's any evidence he's "more ready than Duran is" even by minor league at-bats, which isn't as telling as one would think.

 

Yes, we had some fresh proof of that with Duran last year.

[mvp 78]

23 at-bats in the Olympics don't close the gap from effectively jumping from AA to the majors. He's still developing his power, only 14 home runs last year. People are saying he's the kind of hitter who will eventually hit 30 a year and I think and hope they're right but he only hit 14 last year mostly in AA and we're saying he's ready.

 

Why do we never learn our lessons with prospects and always want them rushed as fans? Dalbec looked good enough down the stretch last year to allow Casas to come up in due time. No need to rush anyone. I'd rather have him start the season in 2023 more ready and get that extra draft pick per the new rules of starting rookies and getting picks in the finish high in ROY/MVP voting.

 

Still, I think there's decent chance we see him at the end of this year. If there are injuries and he's mashing he will get the call up. I'd set the over/under on July 20th. I'll take the over.

 

14 HR in 86 games.

 

Prorated to 162 games, that's 26 HR's. His 2019 stats prorate to 27 HR's.

[Bellhorn04]

14 HR in 86 games.

 

Prorated to 162 games, that's 26 HR's. His 2019 stats prorate to 27 HR's.

 

Duran posted even better numbers - 19 in 82 games at AA, 16 in 60 games at AAA.

[Hugh2]

14 HR in 86 games.

 

Prorated to 162 games, that's 26 HR's. His 2019 stats prorate to 27 HR's.

 

Ok, but that was in Low A 3 years ago now. He has power, that's without question, I'm just not convinced he's ready for the majors and if he is at some point this year I'm not convinced the team is going to bring him up unless there's also a need.

 

There's a stronger incentive to start a prospect at the beginning of the season and let him play all year. If you don't have a need for him at the MLB level come August, why burn the roster spot on the 40 man. So I also question whether or not the Sox are going to bring him up. I don't think it's out of the question he comes up with, nor do I think it's highly unlikely....but I think it's very plausible we don't see him until next year.

 

Regardless, my point is the same. We can take Casas out and throw a different name in there. Later in the year we will be talking about Yorke, in a year or two it will be Mayer....or whoever is hitting well in A/AA ball that the news reports as a top prospects. We always want guys to be ready and it's really easy to use minor league stats as anecdotal evidence that they're.

[Hugh2]

Duran posted even better numbers - 19 in 82 games at AA, 16 in 60 games at AAA.

 

I feel as if more often than not prospects come up and at the very least struggle for a month or two before they get grounded. A good example of that on this current team is Xander Bogaerts.

[moonslav59]

I think Duran's offense will come around. His tinkering with his swing may have slowed the progress, some.

 

I'm most worried about his defense. He reminds me of Ellsbury, who started out being average, at best on D, but he turned into a plus fielder after a few years.

[mvp 78]

Duran posted even better numbers - 19 in 82 games at AA, 16 in 60 games at AAA.

 

There have been many more concerns about Duran's hit tool than there has been for Casas.