2022 Prospects

[moonslav59]

Did everyone else's farm system improve just as much?

 

I can see how it might appear some did, as the year off in 2020 provided chances for many prospects to gain in 2021 (and fall.)

 

I just can't see how we stayed even after adding so many good to great prospects by drafting and a little through trading.

[mvp 78]

I can see how it might appear some did, as the year off in 2020 provided chances for many prospects to gain in 2021 (and fall.)

 

I just can't see how we stayed even after adding so many good to great prospects by drafting and a little through trading.

 

For the ranking to not even go up one spot, kinda gives away the game on Keith Law.

 

The best way to judge these rankings is to take them all and throw them in a blender. There is no one true scouting system. If Keith Law was better than everyone else, he'd have a crazy contract for the Yankees or somewhere else.

[moonslav59]

For the ranking to not even go up one spot, kinda gives away the game on Keith Law.

 

The best way to judge these rankings is to take them all and throw them in a blender. There is no one true scouting system. If Keith Law was better than everyone else, he'd have a crazy contract for the Yankees or somewhere else.

 

It's like he's trolling Sox fans.

[mvp 78]

It's like he's trolling Sox fans.

 

I don't think it's intentional.

[moonslav59]

I don't think it's intentional.

 

Hard to know.

 

He might have been trying to stir up some interest.

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

With college baseball starting next week, BA just released Mock Draft 1.0. It has the Jays taking Kumar Rocker at #23, Red Sox taking Mississippi State catcher Logan Tanner at #24, and no Jud Fabian in the 1st round. Needless to say, this'll be tracked less closely than 2021.

 

Good chance that Fabian regrets not signing with the Sox.

[notin]

For the ranking to not even go up one spot, kinda gives away the game on Keith Law.

 

The best way to judge these rankings is to take them all and throw them in a blender. There is no one true scouting system. If Keith Law was better than everyone else, he'd have a crazy contract for the Yankees or somewhere else.

 

Well, he did work for the Blue Jays for a while…

[mvp 78]

Well, he did work for the Blue Jays for a while…

 

In 2002, Law was hired by the Toronto Blue Jays as a "Consultant to Baseball Operations" after impressing Blue Jays' general manager J. P. Ricciardi during the offseason winter meetings.[5] Paul DePodesta had recommended Law to him and Ricciardi asked Law's opinions regarding the approaching Rule 5 draft of that year, and, impressed with Law's answers and explanations, offered him a position with the team.[6] During his time with the Blue Jays, he acted as a major league and minor league scout, contract negotiator, and provided assistance to the team's marketing and sales staffs.[3] Law reached the position of "Special Assistant to the GM" before resigning in 2006 to work at ESPN.[7]

 

Jays Drafts:

2003 - Aaron Hill, Josh Banks, Shaun Marcum

2004 - David Purcey, Zachary Jackson, Curtis Thigpen (Adam Lind 4th round)

2005 - Ricky Romero, Brian Pettway, Ryan Patterson (Robert Ray 6th round)

 

Rule V:

2003 - Talley Haines

2004 - none

2005 - none

[jacksonianmarch]

Law has always had a biased view of the AL East teams like NY and Boston. You can tell who has the best farms by two things. 1. the continuous ability to deal for top talent and 2. the graduations to the bigs.

[sk7326]

For the ranking to not even go up one spot, kinda gives away the game on Keith Law.

 

The best way to judge these rankings is to take them all and throw them in a blender. There is no one true scouting system. If Keith Law was better than everyone else, he'd have a crazy contract for the Yankees or somewhere else.

 

Hard to say. He has always been a big fan of the Epstein administration and admires the current one. The thing listening to his podcast is that he points out that you should take his rankings with a grain of salt - there is always going to be a wall between what can be known publicly. But he does note that Baseball America, MLB.com, Fangraphs and ESPN, all get to actually see the players they rank. It's not statistical analysis or writing down what coaches say. It's also worth noting that the lifestyle associated with working for The Athletic or ESPN - just from "quality of work/life balance and money" could outweigh a scouting gig, even a high level one.

 

Law has noted that his evaluations tend to favor ceiling somewhat in the "ceiling vs probability" equation.

Edited February 14, 2022 by sk7326

[notin]

Law has always had a biased view of the AL East teams like NY and Boston. You can tell who has the best farms by two things. 1. the continuous ability to deal for top talent and 2. the graduations to the bigs.

 

That’s all “after the fact” evaluations. Trying to predict who will be considered a good player is completely different…

[sk7326]

Law's words about the Red Sox ranking (I'll post the full writeup when it pops up 2morrow)

 

 

 

20. Boston Red Sox

Last year: No. 20

 

It certainly doesn’t hurt when your much-maligned first-rounder from 2020 goes all Tony Gwynn on the minors and you then land the best player in the 2021 draft class while picking fourth. It hurt a bit more to have two of the team’s top hitting prospects endure disappointing years that at least raised some doubts about their hit tools. There’s more pitching on the horizon than there’s been in this system for a long time – they haven’t drafted/signed and developed a major-league starter since Clay Buchholz, whom they drafted in 2005.

 

https://theathletic.com/3112765/2022/02/07/mlb-2022-farm-system-rankings-keith-law-grades-all-30-teams-on-prospects-with-the-dodgers-at-no-1/

[sk7326]

In addition to the Top 100, two Red Sox on the "just missed", though the red flags are concerning

 

Jeter Downs

 

Downs jumped two levels to Triple-A Worcester last year, and it didn’t take, as he hit .191/.272/.333 in 99 games for the Paws… Woosox, I guess. He made less contact than before and did less on contact — he’d been a doubles machine in 2019, but last year couldn’t even do that, with his hits going for doubles at half the rate of the previous year. He wasn’t making the same kind of contact, even against the more hitter-friendly major-league ball. Scouts I asked questioned whether he was just discouraged by the tough season and that perhaps it snowballed on him. It’s not a swing issue, and he showed signs of life when he went to the AFL in October, taking good at-bats and hitting several balls hard (granted, the pitching out there was awful). He played mostly shortstop, but there’s broad consensus he can’t play there in the majors, while he’s shown 55 defense at second. For a prospect whose calling card was always his hit tool, however, this kind of performance is especially concerning. If it’s just a fluke, perhaps from the aggressive promotion, then he can still be an above-average regular at second base.

 

Jarren Duran

 

I still think Duran’s going to be a good big leaguer, but his production in the majors in 2021 was hard to explain away. Granted, it was just 112 PA, but when your walk and strikeout rates look just like Billy Hamilton’s, you might have a problem. Duran reworked his swing during the shutdown to get to more power, as prior to that he was a low-walk slap hitter with plus speed, and it paid off in Triple A, where he hit 16 homers in 60 games — which is more homers than he had hit previously in the minors, fall league, college, and collegiate summer ball combined. A bad month or so doesn’t ruin a prospect’s outlook, and Duran still has above-average regular upside between his speed (and potential for plus defense, which we didn’t see last year) and power. The high-leverage swing may mean he swings-and-misses enough to cancel out some of that added value, especially if he continues to have problems with good velocity as he did in that cup of coffee in the majors.

[mvp 78]

The problem with Duran is that he kept tweaking his swing when he was in the majors. He just has to pick a swing and stick with it.

 

The red flags with Downs are a bit brighter. He's teetering on heading down that post prospect path.

[moonslav59]

The problem with Duran is that he kept tweaking his swing when he was in the majors. He just has to pick a swing and stick with it.

 

The red flags with Downs are a bit brighter. He's teetering on heading down that post prospect path.

 

Tweaking his swing was one main reason some of us saw the wisdom in not calling Duran up early.

[sk7326]

Kiley McDaniel (ESPN) Top 100 prospects ... again (as noted above) one of the analysts who does watch the guys

 

22. Marcelo Mayer

46. Triston Casas

47. Nick Yorke

[mvp 78]

Keith Law just released his prospect report for the Sox.

 

He has Winckowski outside the top 25.

 

He has Lugo ahead of Blaze Jordan.

 

I think this guy has passed his best by date.

[sk7326]

Keith Law's Deep Dive on the Sox farm: https://theathletic.com/3127620/2022/02/15/red-sox-top-20-prospects-for-2022-keith-law-ranks-bostons-farm-system/

 

The lower levels of the Boston system held things together for the Red Sox, as several of their prospects who reached the majors or should have been close to it had somewhat disappointing years. There’s actually some pitching coming for the first time in a while, and even if they’re mostly back-end starters, that will still help fill out a rotation that right now comprises four guys acquired from outside the organization and Tanner Houck.

 

To qualify for these rankings, players must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2022, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.

 

1. Marcelo Mayer (#18 overall)

Mayer was the best high school prospect in the 2021 draft class, and the Red Sox were ecstatic to get him with the No. 4 pick, landing a high-upside hitter at one of the most important positions on the field. Mayer repeats his swing well, with good balance throughout, and his strong wrists and forearms point to more future power than his wiry frame might imply. Some small swing changes to help him transfer his weight through contact could unlock that power in short order, even before he fills out. He has excellent hands and strong lateral range at shortstop, with no doubt he stays there and the potential to end up plus. He showed solid command of the strike zone in the Florida Complex League this summer and had the advantage of facing better competition as a high schooler in California than most hitters elsewhere in the country, so there’s cause to believe he’ll be a solid on-base guy, as well. There’s a lot to work with here on top of a very strong foundation of defensive and offensive skills, giving Mayer a solid floor as a soft regular and the upside of a No. 2 hitter who saves 5 to 10 runs a year with his glove.

 

2. Nick Yorke (#37 overall)

The most maligned pick of the 2020 draft by far went out and proved all of the criticism — yes, including mine — wrong with a .325/.412/.516 line across Low A and High A, especially impressive for a 19-year-old who’d barely played since 2019. Yorke has a fantastic and simple right-handed swing that helps him use the middle of the field and gives him superlative coverage of the strike zone; he’s showed above-average power already, probably lacking the projection for much more but with 15-20 homers a reasonable expectation for his major-league power output. He’s limited to second base by a below-average arm and average speed, although he’s a better runner underway than out of the box. It’s an extremely impressive bat across the board, from the swing to the understanding of the zone to the ability to drive the ball to the gaps, and with no reason to think he won’t stay at second base, he projects as at least an above-average regular there, with batting average champion upside.

 

3. Triston Casas (#56 overall)

Casas made some small changes to his setup last year, but the bigger shift was how he worked the count, especially getting into his legs more when he was ahead in the count so he could drive the ball more consistently. He still has a strong two-strike approach to put the ball in play, with great contact rates for a corner power bat — he actually cut his strikeout rate from 2019 to 2021 despite two promotions and the interruption of a trip to the Olympics. After some experiments at third, Casas only played first last year, and that’s going to be his best position. There should be another gear of power here, and he might end up a .280/.370/.520 sort of bat at first base, with 25-30 homers a year.

 

4. Brayan Bello (#86 overall)

Bello can run his fastball up to 100 mph, and pitches at 95-97 with some feel, although he still has a fair amount of development to go before he’s going to be a big-league starter. He’s a four-pitch guy who needs those offspeed weapons because hitters can get on his fastball even with its velocity, which emphasizes the need for him to further work on his changeup (although he had no real platoon split last year) or perhaps try a splitter. His slider can get up to 90 mph and should be a plus pitch in time. His arm is fast, but there’s some effort and he has a smaller frame, similar to that of the late Yordano Ventura in physique and arm speed. There’s definite reliever risk, but if he moves to the bullpen he’ll probably be 97-100 with a slider up to 90-92, and he has mid-rotation starter upside if he can improve both his fastball command and the quality of his secondaries.

 

5. Jeter Downs

6. Jarren Duran

 

7. Jay Groome

Groome was the 12th pick in 2016, but after several years of injuries, including Tommy John surgery, he just had his first full season of pitching in 2021, making 21 starts between High A and Double A. He’s mostly 92-95 mph now, having filled out and picked up about a grade of velocity, with a much-improved changeup; while his curveball has gone from a 70 when he was an amateur to more of a 55 now – not shocking after the elbow surgery, although it’s a shame. (I said at the time it was one of the three best amateur curveballs I’d ever seen, along with Lucas Giolito’s and Dylan Bundy’s. All three had Tommy John, and only Giolito’s was close to the same afterward.) Groome added a slider, although last year he had far more trouble with left-handed batters than right, from missing fewer bats to giving up more power on contact. The fastball/changeup combination are good enough to make him a back-end starter. If he tightens the slider, which is more likely than the curveball coming back, he could be a mid-rotation guy.

 

8. Brandon Walter

Walter is a Delaware kid – he’s from New Castle, went to Hodgson Vocational Technical High School in Glasgow, and then to the University of Delaware, where he missed his junior year due to Tommy John surgery and went in the 26th round as a senior sign in 2019, just three months before he turned 23. He worked to gain strength and velocity during the pandemic and is now up to 97 mph with a four-pitch mix that features a plus slider and at least an average changeup. There’s some effort to the delivery, and he’s control over command, but he hides the ball well and it’s a brutal look for left-handed batters. He could be a fourth starter if he can handle the workload.

 

9. Matt Lugo

Boston’s second-round pick in 2019, out of a Puerto Rico high school, Lugo started to fill out and showed more doubles power in 2021, his full-season debut. He’s an athletic shortstop who should get to at least average power, and showed solid zone awareness last year in Low A, with just a 20 percent strikeout rate despite having played just two games outside the complex league before last year. His defense at shortstop has improved significantly, and the quality of his at-bats also improved over the course of 2021. He might be a level per year guy but projects to be an everyday player at shortstop when he gets there.

 

10. Bryan Mata

Mata underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2021, so we probably won’t see him until after this year’s minor-league season begins. He’s a low-slot right-hander who can touch 98 mph but gives left-handed batters a long look at the ball. And it’s a tough arm action for him to repeat, so even if he comes back 100 percent, there’s still significant reliever risk here.

 

Rest of Top 20 (fair use of article, I'm editing don the blurbs to key points)

 

11. Chris Murphy - velocity has improved, up to 96. Death on left-handed hitters, but righties were a problem (all 21 homeruns he gave up at Greenville to righties). If he can get out righties viably, he is a 4th starter sort, or he's a lefty bullpen weapon

12. Gilberto Jimenez - Sox surprised by not adding him to 40, but the tools have not turned into performance. He has gotten a little bigger and is not an 80 runner anymore though still CF profile. Makes lots of contact, needs to make better choices about what to swing at. Too young to quit on, but a team taking him in Rule 5 is a bad idea for his development.

13. Blaze Jordan - Got off to a great start, but illness ended his season early. Power starting to appear in games, not just BP. 1B more likely than 3B. Real candidate to make a leap this year.

14. Thad Ward - TJS. Showed some good stuff before then 92-96, good slider, changeup viable. Back end starter possiibilties.

15. Ronaldo Hernandez - Good power, but swings at everything and doesn't make enough contact. Below average receiver, though automated strike zone will help him.

16. Alex Binelas - Came in Renfroe trade. 70 Power but struck out a ton in Louisville. Contact rates were better in his Low-A sojourn despite better competition and wood bats. Profiles at 1B - promising if the approach catches up.

17. Wilkelman Gonzalez - Athletic, smaller frame, but 93-94 who has flashed 97 with a good curve and usable changeup. Low arm slot, arm action if all over the place. But raw materials are promising.

18. Brainer Bonaci - only 19. Switch hitting SS still filling out, but looks like he will be able to stay at SS. Power more gap to gap doubles variety. Should start at Salem.

19. Connor Seabold - Plus changeup, fringy everything else and command is not good enough. Could be interesting as a reliever if velocity ticked up though.

20. Ceddanne Raefela - moved to CF, and showed plus defense there immediately. 5'8" but with some strength and good plate coverage.

 

Others

 

Chih-Jung Liu, Nick Decker, Christian Koss , Durbin Feltman

Noah Song can't be discussed until he gets off a boat

[sk7326]

Keith Law just released his prospect report for the Sox.

 

He has Winckowski outside the top 25.

 

He has Lugo ahead of Blaze Jordan.

 

I think this guy has passed his best by date.

 

Jordan has to like, actually play baseball games.

[mvp 78]

Jordan has to like, actually play baseball games.

 

958 OPS last year in 105 AB's.

[mvp 78]

Weird that Law has Lugo at 9 and SoxProspects has him at 28. That's a huge disparity. I don't think any other scouting report has him that high in the org. Someone that Law is talking too must be really high on him.

[moonslav59]

Weird that Law has Lugo at 9 and SoxProspects has him at 28. That's a huge disparity. I don't think any other scouting report has him that high in the org. Someone that Law is talking too must be really high on him.

 

I think having Lugo that high speaks to Law's diminishing cred.

[sk7326]

Weird that Law has Lugo at 9 and SoxProspects has him at 28. That's a huge disparity. I don't think any other scouting report has him that high in the org. Someone that Law is talking too must be really high on him.

 

Who knows - as noted above, Law, McDaniel at ESPN, Longenhagen at Fangraphs actually go see these guys play ... the 2021 prospects list was obviously an aberration ... usually they've had at least one look at the player on top of some of the "scouting world" cross checking.

 

the other thing is just general preferences. Like, Sox Prospects might value guys who look like 4A players than other outlets that are going to place a toolsy guy with a lower hit rate. And of course, if you believe a guy can get to the majors as a shortstop - he's going to be in your top 10-12.

 

Full disclosure: Law has answered questions I've had on Twitter before ... he invites a lot of questions from readers about this stuff.

[mvp 78]

Who knows - as noted above, Law, McDaniel at ESPN, Longenhagen at Fangraphs actually go see these guys play ... the 2021 prospects list was obviously an aberration ... usually they've had at least one look at the player on top of some of the "scouting world" cross checking.

 

the other thing is just general preferences. Like, Sox Prospects might value guys who look like 4A players than other outlets that are going to place a toolsy guy with a lower hit rate. And of course, if you believe a guy can get to the majors as a shortstop - he's going to be in your top 10-12.

 

Full disclosure: Law has answered questions I've had on Twitter before ... he invites a lot of questions from readers about this stuff.

 

Someone asked the question about Lugo vs Blaze. He said "huge value in a shortstop vs 1b." I get it, but I'm not sure I believe that Lugo can be an everyday SS at MLB level. I don't believe he has an Andrelton Simmons glove. He's performing worse with the bat than Simmons did at his age. IDK. I just don't see it with Lugo. I agree with the argument, but not the player.

[sk7326]

I'll post anything McDaniel does on ESPN+ if/when I find it on org specific stuff.

[mvp 78]

Looking forward to Niko Kavadas highlights this season.

 

https://twitter.com/SoxSpects/status/1493967883860328448

[mvp 78]

Meet Niko Kavadas: Boston Red Sox prospect has big home run power and ‘chip’ on his shoulder

[moonslav59]

Meet Niko Kavadas: Boston Red Sox prospect has big home run power and ‘chip’ on his shoulder

 

Thanks!

 

These kind of guys excite me.

[jacksonianmarch]

Kiley put out his top 100. 3 Yanks in top 32 including Volpe at 6 with a fourth Yankee in the 60s in pereira.

 

Mayer 22 and Yorke and Casas mid 40s in same ranking

[moonslav59]

#53 on the soxprospects.com top 60 list:

 

Hudson Potts

 

https://soxprospects.com/players/potts-hudson.htm?fbclid=IwAR3gKtes1rmIaUL7D6uuifq_3B59kb-aMTt-Bu6SWVuDPcNMuA9UJKkXGyw