2022 Prospects

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think it's almost a scientific fact that fans always think a prospect is ready before he actually is. I also don't think there's any evidence he's "more ready than Duran is" even by minor league at-bats, which isn't as telling as one would think.

 

Casas has 33 at bats above AA ball, Duran had 244 with a higher OPS than Casas. I think we're just dreaming on Casas because he has that shiny #1 prospect tag. I think he's going to be stud.........but he could easily not be ready and that's ok.

 

You're welcome to your opinion, but then contradict yourself by typing "we're just dreaming on Casas." I happen to think he's a better overall hitter than Duran is now and last year because of his deliberate approach. Despite weighing 260 lbs, he sacrifices power for contact, and chokes up with two strikes. Casas' goal was never to crush 30 homers in the minors to get called up; it's to stay and star in the majors when he gets called up. The longball will come.

 

I'm not in love with the guy, but I'm enthused about the possibility of a prospect coming to Boston that won't be a K machine like Dalbec, Duran, Chavis or Franchy. The Sox have a history of promoting top prospects when they deem them ready, no matter how young. Meanwhile, what's wrong with looking ahead -- are we supposed to be pumped by the return of Travis Shaw?

[Hugh2]

You're welcome to your opinion, but then contradict yourself by typing "we're just dreaming on Casas." I happen to think he's a better overall hitter than Duran is now and last year because of his deliberate approach. Despite weighing 260 lbs, he sacrifices power for contact, and chokes up with two strikes. Casas' goal was never to crush 30 homers in the minors to get called up; it's to stay and star in the majors when he gets called up. The longball will come.

 

I'm not in love with the guy, but I'm enthused about the possibility of a prospect coming to Boston that won't be a K machine like Dalbec, Duran, Chavis or Franchy. The Sox have a history of promoting top prospects when they deem them ready, no matter how young. Meanwhile, what's wrong with looking ahead -- are we supposed to be pumped by the return of Travis Shaw?

 

I don't disagree with a single thing you just said. I just A.) don't think it's guaranteed to happen this year and B.) think us fans tend to over estimate how quickly guys will be ready and how soon they will be called up.

 

History as a very long track record of proving B correct, even if you don't agree with the first part the second part is irefutable.

[Hugh2]

I think Duran's offense will come around. His tinkering with his swing may have slowed the progress, some.

 

I'm most worried about his defense. He reminds me of Ellsbury, who started out being average, at best on D, but he turned into a plus fielder after a few years.

 

That's kind of my concern with him as well. My hope is he is able to make enough improvements to be a good LF/RF.....but if he's a corner guy that puts a little bit more pressure on his bat.

 

I think Duran is good, but I don't think he's going to live up to the hype he's had which may mean he ultimately disappoints a lot of people.

[mvp 78]

That's kind of my concern with him as well. My hope is he is able to make enough improvements to be a good LF/RF.....but if he's a corner guy that puts a little bit more pressure on his bat.

 

I think Duran is good, but I don't think he's going to live up to the hype he's had which may mean he ultimately disappoints a lot of people.

 

I'm not sure he'll ever be a good fit in RF at Fenway. I'd rather have him fake it in CF.

[moonslav59]

One areathe Sox have really slipped in is the IFA market.

 

2004: Doubront

2006: Dice-K & Okajima

2008: Tazawa

2009: Bogey, Montas, Iggy

2010: Aro

2011: Margot

2012: Bautista, Guerra & the Basabes

2013: Devers & DHern

2014: Moncada, Rusney, Bazardo

2015: Mata

 

2016: Hector Velazquez

2017: Bello

2018> basically crickets

 

 

[Hugh2]

One areathe Sox have really slipped in is the IFA market.

 

2004: Doubront

2006: Dice-K & Okajima

2008: Tazawa

2009: Bogey, Montas, Iggy

2010: Aro

2011: Margot

2012: Bautista, Guerra & the Basabes

2013: Devers & DHern

2014: Moncada, Rusney, Bazardo

2015: Mata

 

2016: Hector Velazquez

2017: Bello

2018> basically crickets

 

 

 

I think that’s a little unfair, 2018 was only 4 years ago, when those kids would have been 16. Some are turning 21 this year but most are much younger.

 

Let’s see what 2018-2021 looks like 5 years from now.

[mvp 78]

I think that’s a little unfair, 2018 was only 4 years ago, when those kids would have been 16. Some are turning 21 this year but most are much younger.

 

Let’s see what 2018-2021 looks like 5 years from now.

 

And part of the reasons they "slipped" is that they got caught doing shenanigans and were restricted from signing IFA's for a while.

[mvp 78]

Also, Daniel Flores from the 17-18 class would be 22 today and would most likely be on the MLB roster if he didn't get cancer and die.

 

Guys from 18 IFA like Paulino, Bonaci and Wikelman are all decent prospects but are still far away and two of those guys are still teenagers. You don't expect these guys to just show up in BOS 2 years after signing. The previous 2 years of signings are still high school kids.

[moonslav59]

I think that’s a little unfair, 2018 was only 4 years ago, when those kids would have been 16. Some are turning 21 this year but most are much younger.

 

Let’s see what 2018-2021 looks like 5 years from now.

 

Fair criticism, but I doubt we see players like Boey, Devers, Moncada &Montas from anyone taken in 2015 or afterwards.

 

That's 7 years- some with restrictions, some with low bonus pools and some too recent to know much, but no doubt, we have slipped in this area.

[Hugh2]

And part of the reasons they "slipped" is that they got caught doing shenanigans and were restricted from signing IFA's for a while.

 

Exactly. That, plus the 5 year lead time, and one could expect the Sox not of not had any meaningful contributions from the IFA class in a while. The system has some nice IFA in it though now.

[Hugh2]

Fair criticism, but I doubt we see players like Boey, Devers, Moncada &Montas from anyone taken in 2015 or afterwards.

 

That's 7 years- some with restrictions, some with low bonus pools and some too recent to know much, but no doubt, we have slipped in this area.

 

I think that's a very unfair take for a couple of reasons. The first couple years in your window we literally were disallowed from signing anyone. The best signing out of the 2017/2018 class was considered by many to be the best IFA signing that year but he died tragically. Everyone after that is 20 or younger. There are kids 16/17 years old playing in the DSL this year, that we realistically can't project anything upon. The next Micky Mantle could be there for all we know.

 

Also, holding people up to the Bogey/Devers standard is a little unfair. Those are legit elite guys, you don't have to turn out an elite guy every year to have a successful system.

[moonslav59]

I think that's a very unfair take for a couple of reasons. The first couple years in your window we literally were disallowed from signing anyone. The best signing out of the 2017/2018 class was considered by many to be the best IFA signing that year but he died tragically. Everyone after that is 20 or younger. There are kids 16/17 years old playing in the DSL this year, that we realistically can't project anything upon. The next Micky Mantle could be there for all we know.

 

Also, holding people up to the Bogey/Devers standard is a little unfair. Those are legit elite guys, you don't have to turn out an elite guy every year to have a successful system.

 

Just because there are valid excuses for why we have nobody since 2014 does not change the fact that we have nobody since 2014.

 

Sure, maybe one of these young guys will move up the value charts in the next year or two, but I'm not seeing the generational talent we used to get before.

 

Guys like Bogey, Devers and Moncada we recognized pretty early on as being unbelievably promising. We haven't gotten anyone like that in a long time.

 

The penalties were our own fault, so that's not a valid excuse.

 

Flores dying was certainly an excuse, but we never got to see if he was in that group I just mentioned or not.

 

The system has change, but other teams in the same boat as us have done well with IFAs. We have not.

[moonslav59]

Exactly. That, plus the 5 year lead time, and one could expect the Sox not of not had any meaningful contributions from the IFA class in a while. The system has some nice IFA in it though now.

 

Many of our IFAs signed long ago were instantly or near instantly ranked very highly, and I didn't even list Anderson Espinoza who was a top 20 prospect that got hurt.

 

[Hugh2]

Just because there are valid excuses for why we have nobody since 2014 does not change the fact that we have nobody since 2014.

 

Sure, maybe one of these young guys will move up the value charts in the next year or two, but I'm not seeing the generational talent we used to get before.

 

Guys like Bogey, Devers and Moncada we recognized pretty early on as being unbelievably promising. We haven't gotten anyone like that in a long time.

 

The penalties were our own fault, so that's not a valid excuse.

 

Flores dying was certainly an excuse, but we never got to see if he was in that group I just mentioned or not.

 

The system has change, but other teams in the same boat as us have done well with IFAs. We have not.

 

I whole heartedly disagree. The only group of players who exist who could fit your criteria pretty much all have a ONE in front of their age. You say these things are excuses but not excuses? That would make more sense to me if we were talking about a prolonged period of time. That argument works when your system hasn't turned out a legit starting pitching prospect in almost two decades.

 

Also, keep in mind we have the missed Covid year that really screwed up these kids. People like Miguel Bleis, Brainer Bonaci, Wilkenson Gonzlaez, and Eddison Paulino are all legit prospects who could have take a huge step forward last year if they had another year of development under their belts. I'm not saying you're wrong but it's way way way way way way too early to say such, especially when the team itself is still flush with homegrown IFA talent, some of which is still cost controlled.

[Hugh2]

Many of our IFAs signed long ago were instantly or near instantly ranked very highly, and I didn't even list Anderson Espinoza who was a top 20 prospect that got hurt.

 

 

The were instantly ranked, but they weren't instantly ranked high. The list of guys I just gave you are all ranked now too and could shoot up the ladder with good campaigns in 2022.

[Hugh2]

and it's not like these guys you're talking about immediately ranked as a top 2 prospect. Bogaerts debuted in the top 20 as the 18th ranked prospect in the system. Devers debuted at 18th as well. The Sox literally have two international prospects in their top 20 ranked higher than 18th right now.

[moonslav59]

and it's not like these guys you're talking about immediately ranked as a top 2 prospect. Bogaerts debuted in the top 20 as the 18th ranked prospect in the system. Devers debuted at 18th as well. The Sox literally have two international prospects in their top 20 ranked higher than 18th right now.

 

I'm not talking soxprospects.com: I'm talking nationally ranked.

 

How long did it take Bogey, Devers, Moncada & Espinoza to reach top 100, top 50 or top 20 in national rankings?

 

Can or do we expect any of our current prospects to ever be top 25 or 50? We may not even see a top 100 prospects in a while, except maybe Bello.

[moonslav59]

You say these things are excuses but not excuses? That would make more sense to me if we were talking about a prolonged period of time.

 

The death of Flores is "an excuse," but getting yourself penalized should not be an excuse. Our team got us there. We have pretty much sucked compared to other teams

 

Look, I get the ages of these kids are young, but I'm talking 2014 as our last banner year.

[Hugh2]

I'm not talking soxprospects.com: I'm talking nationally ranked.

 

How long did it take Bogey, Devers, Moncada & Espinoza to reach top 100, top 50 or top 20 in national rankings?

 

Can or do we expect any of our current prospects to ever be top 25 or 50? We may not even see a top 100 prospects in a while, except maybe Bello.

 

If anything these guys are ranked later by the national outlets because soxprospecs focus is soley on the Sox. They get wind of and eyes on these guys sooner than anyone else. Both Devers and Bogaerts didn't show up on national rankings until about 1 year after they broke into the Soxprospects top 20 rankings.

 

Another thing to consider is the group of guys who would hypothetically rank right now as 18-19 year olds IFA in a system missed an entire year two years ago. That might not seem like much now, a year removed, but a lot of those guys get ranked based on hype and shine coming out of the international market and not actual track record. Who knows where these guys will rank by year's end. For all we know Baseball America had Miguel Bleis right outside the top 100 and with a strong 2022 he could be a top 50/100 prospect by this time next year. Baseball America did name drop Bleis as a breakout candidate for 2022.

 

You're not wrong, but I think you're being way too premature in that assertation. I will certainly not make such one, not yet at least.

[moonslav59]

If anything these guys are ranked later by the national outlets because soxprospecs focus is soley on the Sox. They get wind of and eyes on these guys sooner than anyone else. Both Devers and Bogaerts didn't show up on national rankings until about 1 year after they broke into the Soxprospects top 20 rankings.

 

Another thing to consider is the group of guys who would hypothetically rank right now as 18-19 year olds IFA in a system missed an entire year two years ago. That might not seem like much now, a year removed, but a lot of those guys get ranked based on hype and shine coming out of the international market and not actual track record. Who knows where these guys will rank by year's end. For all we know Baseball America had Miguel Bleis right outside the top 100 and with a strong 2022 he could be a top 50/100 prospect by this time next year. Baseball America did name drop Bleis as a breakout candidate for 2022.

 

You're not wrong, but I think you're being way too premature in that assertation. I will certainly not make such one, not yet at least.

 

I'm granting the chances someone in our system, now, might crack the top 50 or 100 in a few years, but there that doesn't speak to 2015-2018 or 2019.

 

We've his a low point for a few years. Hopefully, that has already started to change, but it' been a long time, since we've had an IFA in the national rankings.

 

Bogey was signed in Aug 2009. He was ranked on 18th soxprospects.com in June 2011, 4th in Sept '11 and #1 in Sept '12.

 

Devers was signed in July 2013 and reached #18 by Apr '14. He was #12 by June '13 and #4 by Sept '14. He reached at #2 by '15, thanks to Moncada being #1. Later, he made it to #1.

 

Espinoza was signed in July 2014 and was ranked #11 in a year, #3 in 14 months and #3 by April '16.

 

Moncada was signed in March 2015 and was #2 that same April. He was number 1 by July, the same year he was signed.

 

Players drafted after 2014 in soxprospects top 10:

 

Mata has reached #2 (7/18)

 

A Flores #7 (4/19)

 

Aldo Ramirez #10 (11/25) and #9 (5/21)

 

Bello #7 (8/21) and #6 (11/21)

 

I'm not sure who and when our IFA's were in the top 25, 50 or 100, but we haven't had one in a while. Can anyone name the last 5 IFAs that cracked the top 100, 50 and 25 in national rankings?

[mvp 78]

Fair criticism, but I doubt we see players like Boey, Devers, Moncada &Montas from anyone taken in 2015 or afterwards.

 

That's 7 years- some with restrictions, some with low bonus pools and some too recent to know much, but no doubt, we have slipped in this area.

 

So Bleis has no chance at reaching those levels? That's not what the scouts are saying.

[Hugh2]

Also to refute an earlier point. If you want to fault the Sox for not having top IFA talent close to MLB ready now on their actions that led to them being disqualified from signing guys that's fine. Actually, if anything you have persuaded me a little bit with your argument there. However I still consider this.

 

1.) The Sox got in trouble for what other teams were supposedly all doing, the league made an example out of them. Lame excuse, but still makes one a little upset when they're the ones getting the short end of the stick.

 

2.) Even if we can assign blame to the Sox, which is fair I admit, we also have to admit that because of those circumstances it's NOT because of their ability to scout and develop IFA talent. They literally had no guys for two years. If you believe in #2 you can both fault them and be optimistic in their future given the overall track record over the past decade.

 

#2 resonates strong with me, and it's why I'm not ready to to say to criticize their ability to develop IFA talent just yet.

[mvp 78]

I'm not talking soxprospects.com: I'm talking nationally ranked.

 

How long did it take Bogey, Devers, Moncada & Espinoza to reach top 100, top 50 or top 20 in national rankings?

 

Can or do we expect any of our current prospects to ever be top 25 or 50? We may not even see a top 100 prospects in a while, except maybe Bello.

 

Xander wasn't a top 100 prospect until he was 20.

[moonslav59]

So Bleis has no chance at reaching those levels? That's not what the scouts are saying.

 

Did you read my last post?

 

I'm granting the chances someone in our system, now, might crack the top 50 or 100 in a few years, but there that doesn't speak to 2015-2018 or 2019.

[moonslav59]

Also to refute an earlier point. If you want to fault the Sox for not having top IFA talent close to MLB ready now on their actions that led to them being disqualified from signing guys that's fine. Actually, if anything you have persuaded me a little bit with your argument there. However I still consider this.

 

1.) The Sox got in trouble for what other teams were supposedly all doing, the league made an example out of them. Lame excuse, but still makes one a little upset when they're the ones getting the short end of the stick.

 

2.) Even if we can assign blame to the Sox, which is fair I admit, we also have to admit that because of those circumstances it's NOT because of their ability to scout and develop IFA talent. They literally had no guys for two years. If you believe in #2 you can both fault them and be optimistic in their future given the overall track record over the past decade.

 

#2 resonates strong with me, and it's why I'm not ready to to say to criticize their ability to develop IFA talent just yet.

 

I understand the penalty period had a lot to do with the 2015-2018/19 period being rather lame.

 

I never made any comments about our scouting or talent evaluations of IFAs being lame. I only stated that we have not had a big-named IFA since the 2015 signing period.

 

There are many reasons and/or excuses, but we have not.

 

Have we already signed the next guy? Maybe- maybe not.

 

I like Bello and Bleis. Maybe Gonzalez or Jimenez rise up, soon.

 

None have made the national top 100 lists in a long time, for many reasons.

[moonslav59]

Not really related to IFA rankings, but I found this interesting.

 

Top 100 prospects are not all there is to ranking or rating a farm system, but based on top 100 prospects, our worst 5 seasons out of the last 33 have been:

 

33. 2019

 

32. 2018

 

31. 2002

 

30. 2001

 

29. 2020

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/1/23/22897560/red-sox-top-prospects-history-baseball-america-top-100

 

Top 100's since 1990:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L1H_USzTBUu5Hloc45vJV3-LTX5vfr-les_DSszC_gs/edit?hl=en&hl=en#gid=1

 

Edited March 24, 2022 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Moncada was sort of a special case, as he cost us 63 million to sign.

[moonslav59]

Moncada was sort of a special case, as he cost us 63 million to sign.

 

Indeed, and the systm has changed to not allow for that anymore. I mentioned that, too, but there are still cases like Suzuki where we keep missing out.

 

We paid Dice-K.

[Bellhorn04]

Indeed, and the systm has changed to not allow for that anymore. I mentioned that, too, but there are still cases like Suzuki where we keep missing out.

 

We paid Dice-K.

 

And of course Suzuki cost $70 million.

[moonslav59]

And of course Suzuki cost $70 million.

 

Close to Moncada money- more with inflation figured in (same with Dice-K, who also had an enormous posting fee/bid)