Will there be a 2022 season?

[moonslav59]

I'm still not optimistic...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/02/owners-players-meet-for-extended-negotiating-session-more-talks-planned-for-monday.html

[Old Red]

Yes, and the "floor" would be a way to force lower spending teams to pay players or lose out on revenue sharing or pay fines.

 

The problem is who would make them do something like this? The owners won’t force that upon themselves.

[notin]

The problem is who would make them do something like this? The owners won’t force that upon themselves.

 

 

Negotiations work like that sometimes. To get something you want, occasionally you have to relent on something you prefer not to…

[Bellhorn04]

From the sounds of it, the two sides are still so far apart that it's a virtual certainty we're getting a short 2022 season, if we get one at all.

 

Disgusting.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

From the sounds of it, the two sides are still so far apart that it's a virtual certainty we're getting a short 2022 season, if we get one at all.

 

Disgusting.

 

"I just hope the fans understand what we're fighting for," said Ian Happ.

 

This fan has witnessed enough fighting all over the country and in others the past two years. Play.

[sk7326]

The union made a lot of movement to the owners and the owners did not look at the offer. We're basically in a state of play where the owners are insisting the equivalent of - as Craig Calcaterra put it - getting Mike Trout in exchange for a Triple-A middle reliever.

 

The owners are basically proposing a de facto hard cap not tied to revenue which rises slower than inflation. That should be a non-starter.

 

I was optimistic before - but just like 2020, the owners (and it's clearly small market teams driivng the train here) would prefer not to have baseball at all if it means bringing the union to its knees.

Edited February 28, 2022 by sk7326

[sk7326]

The problem is who would make them do something like this? The owners won’t force that upon themselves.

 

Why not - it's how the NFL and NBA work.

[Old Red]

"I just hope the fans understand what we're fighting for," said Ian Happ.

 

This fan has witnessed enough fighting all over the country and in others the past two years. Play.

 

It still comes down to Millionaires, and Billionaires fighting over a bigger slice of the pie that I could care less if either side gets.

[Nick]

It still comes down to Millionaires, and Billionaires fighting over a bigger slice of the pie that I could care less if either side gets.

 

You pretty much hit the nail straight on. We just want to watch baseball.

[Old Red]

You pretty much hit the nail straight on. We just want to watch baseball.

 

Lock both sides in a room till this gets settled.

[Bellhorn04]

Lock both sides in a room till this gets settled.

 

We wish.

[moonslav59]

The union made a lot of movement to the owners and the owners did not look at the offer. We're basically in a state of play where the owners are insisting the equivalent of - as Craig Calcaterra put it - getting Mike Trout in exchange for a Triple-A middle reliever.

 

The owners are basically proposing a de facto hard cap not tied to revenue which rises slower than inflation. That should be a non-starter.

 

I was optimistic before - but just like 2020, the owners (and it's clearly small market teams driivng the train here) would prefer not to have baseball at all if it means bringing the union to its knees.

 

The owners are barely meeting inflationary raises- essentially asking the players to be worse off than before.

[mvp 78]

From the sounds of it, the two sides are still so far apart that it's a virtual certainty we're getting a short 2022 season, if we get one at all.

 

Disgusting.

 

What they are far apart on is the CBT. Players want it to go up to $240is and then increase every year. Owners want to keep it where it is $210ish. Basically, the revenue pot keeps growing for owners, but the salary pot for the players will see barely any movement.

[mvp 78]

Lock both sides in a room till this gets settled.

 

If Max Scherzererer is in there, I believe it would end in a murder mystery.

[Nick]

What they are far apart on is the CBT. Players want it to go up to $240is and then increase every year. Owners want to keep it where it is $210ish. Basically, the revenue pot keeps growing for owners, but the salary pot for the players will see barely any movement.

 

I'll say it again. Owners are in complete control when it comes to dishing out mega bucks. They want the players to stop them from spending.

 

I suppose Yankee ownership can always claim, hey look, $210M is the soft cap. We're spending up to the soft cap, meanwhile pockets greater portion of gross revenue.

[mvp 78]

They want the players to stop them from spending.

 

As immortalized in the John Fogerty song "The Ballad of Tom Hicks."

[Bellhorn04]

I'll say it again. Owners are in complete control when it comes to dishing out mega bucks. They want the players to stop them from spending.

 

One could argue that it's actually the poorer owners putting the clamps on the richer owners.

 

However you look at it, it clearly affects the players, so they're the ones who have to fight it.

[Old Red]

The owners are barely meeting inflationary raises- essentially asking the players to be worse off than before.

 

That may be true, but like I keep saying I have NO sympathy for either side. They are both greedy, and the fans allow them to be that way.

[notin]

If Max Scherzererer is in there, I believe it would end in a murder mystery.

 

What would the mystery be?

[notin]

Lock both sides in a room till this gets settled.

 

No fair!! Some of those owners will miss some very critical tee times!!

[sk7326]

I'll say it again. Owners are in complete control when it comes to dishing out mega bucks. They want the players to stop them from spending.

 

I suppose Yankee ownership can always claim, hey look, $210M is the soft cap. We're spending up to the soft cap, meanwhile pockets greater portion of gross revenue.

 

One of the funny things about this lockout is that the CBT sunsetted - and there is no doubt that the Mets were ready to go bananas. The league locked out in large part to stop the Dodgers and Mets (and quite possibly the Red Sox) from swooping in.

[sk7326]

What they are far apart on is the CBT. Players want it to go up to $240is and then increase every year. Owners want to keep it where it is $210ish. Basically, the revenue pot keeps growing for owners, but the salary pot for the players will see barely any movement.

 

in real $$ terms, the owners want to decrease it ... both the flat upper limit and the higher punishment rates.

 

The players aren't even asking for enough IMO - every other sport has these limits tied to revenue. Baseball players are well within reason to ask for the same.

[mvp 78]

One could argue that it's actually the poorer owners putting the clamps on the richer owners.

 

However you look at it, it clearly affects the players, so they're the ones who have to fight it.

 

It does seem like the smaller markets are carrying a lot more weight.

[mvp 78]

in real $$ terms, the owners want to decrease it ... both the flat upper limit and the higher punishment rates.

 

The players aren't even asking for enough IMO - every other sport has these limits tied to revenue. Baseball players are well within reason to ask for the same.

 

Yes, it should be 100% tied to revenue.

[mvp 78]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33362477/inside-self-inflicted-crisis-boiling-mlb-lockout-deadline-arrives

 

Good overview from Jeff Passan.

[sk7326]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33362477/inside-self-inflicted-crisis-boiling-mlb-lockout-deadline-arrives

 

Good overview from Jeff Passan.

 

It has been striking that Passan and Rosenthal, hardly labor firebrands, point out the fault pretty unambiguously.

[moonslav59]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33362477/inside-self-inflicted-crisis-boiling-mlb-lockout-deadline-arrives

 

Good overview from Jeff Passan.

 

Good read. This paragraph is pretty telling...

 

Player pay has decreased for four consecutive years, even as industry revenues grew and franchise values soared and the would-be stewards of the game pleaded to anyone who would listen that owning a baseball team isn't a particularly profitable venture. Players' service time has been manipulated to keep them from free agency and salary arbitration. The luxury tax, instituted to discourage runaway spending, has morphed into a de facto salary cap, and too many teams are nowhere near it anyway, instead gutting their rosters and slashing their payrolls because the game's rules incentivize losing. The commissioner has called the World Series trophy a "piece of metal," and the league has awarded the team that did the best job curtailing arbitration salaries a replica championship belt.

 

More...

 

On Dec. 2, when the league instituted what commissioner Rob Manfred, in a letter to fans, called a "defensive lockout," MLB acted first -- ostensibly in the name of proactivity. "We hope that the lockout will jump-start the negotiations," Manfred wrote. The league then waited 43 days to present the union its next offer.

 

...the CBT threshold rose about 18% while industry revenues grew by at least 40%. They saw that in 2018, long before COVID existed, their average salaries went down -- as they did again in 2019 and 2020 and 2021, even as the biggest deals in the sport were growing and $300 million-plus guaranteed contracts were no longer outliers. They saw franchise values exploding to the point that in 2021, Forbes estimated, the 30 MLB teams were worth a combined $55.28 billion. Ten years ago, only two collective-bargaining agreements earlier, their combined valuations were $15.68 billion.

Edited February 28, 2022 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

It has been striking that Passan and Rosenthal, hardly labor firebrands, point out the fault pretty unambiguously.

 

Anyone who has looked at it more closely than "millionaires vs billionaires" can see where to lay most of the blame here.

[mvp 78]

the league has awarded the team that did the best job curtailing arbitration salaries a replica championship belt.

 

I had 100% forgotten about this story.

[sk7326]

Fun mental exercise ... baseball made $10.7B in revenue in 2019. If we take the Atlanta Braves financials (which are public) at face value, 2021 reflectes a 10% increase from 2019. So let's use a revenue basis of $12.0B (the actual increase is 11.1%. I'll simplify the numbers for math). Baseball's combined payroll in 2021 was 4.07B. So we're dealing with 33-35% of revenues going to the players.

 

Now, not all revenue in the NBA or NFL are subject to division - but let's assume that most of the revenue is revenue that should be shared with the players. Just for fun, let's call it $10B.

 

in the NBA, the players are guaranteed something between 48% and 52% of the pie, with the salary cap being set at 50.3% i think. So if we use 50% as the baseline "share", that means the leaguewide salary pool is $5B.

 

Divided among 30 teams, that would be a salary cap of $167M per team with a salary floor of $160M. There are numerous ways for teams to spend above the salary cap - but you can figure that out.