A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Maxbialystock]

Just read that Iggy, while not eligible to play in the postseason, has stayed with the team and is serving as Cora's 'intern' and helping out any way he can. Pretty cool.

 

I read that too. Very cool. We gotta get him back.

[Maxbialystock]

Stop what?

 

Knowing more than me. Your laydowns are always excellent, but, as I say, above my competency. I can't do payrolls, trades, etc, but occasionally don't mind reading about them.

[moonslav59]

You the one always saying we may go over the tax limit next year. And I'm agreeing with you. With that all I'm saying is Schwarber/JD contracts will only overlap for one year.

 

I'm pretty sure you're enjoying watching Schwarber hitting alongside JD, Kike, Devers, Xander, Verdugo and Renfroe.

 

I have said all along, if we go over by a significant amount, then we'll be able to upgrade the pitching and keep Schwarber. I'll beleive it when I see it, and the rumor is the threshold will be lower, so who knows.

 

I'm going by the $40M number until I know more.

 

Even if we spend $50-55M, this winter, I'm not sure signing Schwarber is better than signing Semien, who could play 2B for a huge upgrade and then take over SS, if Bogey bolts or gets traded.

 

I think Semienor or Biaz is a bigger upgrade over Arroyo (who becomes the utility guy) than Schwarber is over a Dalbec/Verdugo/Renfroe rotation at DH/1B/corner OF. If we are going to spend on something other than pitching, as great as Schwarber is, I'm looking somewhere other than DH.

[moonslav59]

Knowing more than me. Your laydowns are always excellent, but, as I say, above my competency. I can't do payrolls, trades, etc, but occasionally don't mind reading about them.

 

It's not rocket science to think $35-40M gets us 2 ERods and nothing else.

[Nick]

I have said all along, if we go over by a significant amount, then we'll be able to upgrade the pitching and keep Schwarber. I'll beleive it when I see it, and the rumor is the threshold will be lower, so who knows.

 

I'm going by the $40M number until I know more.

 

Even if we spend $50-55M, this winter, I'm not sure signing Schwarber is better than signing Semien, who could play 2B for a huge upgrade and then take over SS, if Bogey bolts or gets traded.

 

I think Semienor or Biaz is a bigger upgrade over Arroyo (who becomes the utility guy) than Schwarber is over a Dalbec/Verdugo/Renfroe rotation at DH/1B/corner OF. If we are going to spend on something other than pitching, as great as Schwarber is, I'm looking somewhere other than DH.

 

I agree with you but you keep moving the goal post.....

 

I rather have Semien than Schwarber obviously. But Semien will cost lot more than Schwarber.

 

You need to lay out a plan for tax limit (assume $210M), $20M+ tax limit and $40M+tax limit. I'm having hard time pinning you down.

 

Also what I want and what I think I'll get from Sox are two completely different scenarios.

Edited October 17, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

I agree with you but you keep moving the goal post.....

 

I rather have Semien than Schwarber obviously. But Semien will cost lot more than Schwarber.

 

You need to lay out a plan for tax limit (assume $210M), $20M+ tax limit and $40M+tax limit. I'm having hard time pinning you down.

 

Also what I want and what I think I'll get from Sox are two completely different scenarios.

 

My position has not changed. I don't know what our winter budget will be. I have steadily said...

 

If it's near $40M, we will need pretty much all of that to improve our pitching and sign a utility IF'er like maybe Iggy.

 

If we can spend $55-60M, there is room for Scwarber, too, but if I'm spending big on a non pitcher, it wouldn't be on a DH. Having JD already makes it a slam dunk. (Trading JD totally changes my view.)

 

Now, if spending over $50M and we are going to spend $15-20M a year on Schwarber to play 1B/OF, next year and squeeze Kike to 2B or bench Dalbec/Renfroe/Verdugo for a year, I'd rather spend $22-27M on Semien or Baez to play 2B and take over for Bogey, if he bolts after 2022. The $7M more is worth is.

 

My position has not changed.

[moonslav59]

You need to lay out a plan for tax limit (assume $210M), $20M+ tax limit and $40M+tax limit. I'm having hard time pinning you down.

 

/QUOTE]

 

I have.

 

If the line is $210M, we'll have about $35-40M to spend, if we want to stay under or be near the line. Here is a redo...

 

$18M on ERod or someone like him

$12M on a #4 (since I want Houck as our closer and Whitlock as our set up man over paying $16M for the best closer)

$4M Iggy

$3M RP

$3M RP

 

OR

$30M Scherzer (3 yrs)- No ERod

$4M Iggy

$3M RP

$3M RP

(Whiltock to the rotation)

 

If we can go way over, then maybe this...

$30M Scherzer

$18M ERod

$4M Iggy

$4M RP

$3M RP

 

No Semien or Schwarber, but if we do go offense:

$26M Semien or Baez

$18M ERod

$8M SP

$4M Iggy

$3M RP

 

[Nick]

You need to lay out a plan for tax limit (assume $210M), $20M+ tax limit and $40M+tax limit. I'm having hard time pinning you down.

 

/QUOTE]

 

I have.

 

If the line is $210M, we'll have about $35-40M to spend, if we want to stay under or be near the line. Here is a redo...

 

$18M on ERod or someone like him

$12M on a #4 (since I want Houck as our closer and Whitlock as our set up man over paying $16M for the best closer)

$4M Iggy

$3M RP

$3M RP

 

OR

$30M Scherzer (3 yrs)- No ERod

$4M Iggy

$3M RP

$3M RP

(Whiltock to the rotation)

 

If we can go way over, then maybe this...

$30M Scherzer

$18M ERod

$4M Iggy

$4M RP

$3M RP

 

No Semien or Schwarber, but if we do go offense:

$26M Semien or Baez

$18M ERod

$8M SP

$4M Iggy

$3M RP

 

 

Fair enough...I get it.

 

If Henry lets me, my order would be

 

1 Scherzer (we have always agreed on enhancing SP by picking a #1 and sliding down the rest) With him, Scherzer, Eovaldi, Sale, Pivetta, Whitlock, Houck, Sealbold.....#6 and #7 can go to the pen.

2 Siemen (he would also provide hedge vs Xander leaving or otherwise give us one hell of offensive infield)

3 Schwarber (my interest in him dates back to his IU days)...BUT I HAVE A CAP ON HIM AT $15M, I wouldn't pay him penny more, and again a hedge when $22M JD leaves

4 Relievers are fickle, I just trust Bloom to get the arms necessary without 'big name' relief pitcher. We already 'spent the big-name bullpen budget' on Barnes extension.

Edited October 18, 2021 by Nick

[oldtimer]

Oh, stop it. I understand all of the above, but it's still above my paygrade.

 

I think keeping both Sale, which the Sox have no choice in, and ERod is spending too much on long shots. So, even though I kind of agree with you that ERod ain't as bad as people claim, no way would I give him a QO over $10M. So I think Bloom goes with Eovaldi, Sale, Pivetta, Houck, and a player to be named later, and gets some more arms for the bullpen.

 

He will always have the opportunity to trade Schwarber, JDM, Dalbec, whoever if the pitching needs gets urgent enough.

 

Even if we give E-Rod a QO, some team is likely to offer him a 3 year deal and be willing to sacrifice a draft pick to us based on my understanding. While E-Rod is still a potential winning pitcher, I wouldG be against offering him a long term deal. Like you, I would prefer to be open minded about picking up a quality starter, but not an ace.

[moonslav59]

Even if we give E-Rod a QO, some team is likely to offer him a 3 year deal and be willing to sacrifice a draft pick to us based on my understanding. While E-Rod is still a potential winning pitcher, I wouldG be against offering him a long term deal. Like you, I would prefer to be open minded about picking up a quality starter, but not an ace.

 

If we offer him a QO and he refuses it, based on the idea he can get more elsewhere and doesn't want a season to reset his value, then we get a comp draft pick and have his $18M to spend on someone else.

[moonslav59]

 

Fair enough...I get it.

 

If Henry lets me, my order would be

 

1 Scherzer (we have always agreed on enhancing SP by picking a #1 and sliding down the rest) With him, Scherzer, Eovaldi, Sale, Pivetta, Whitlock, Houck, Sealbold.....#6 and #7 can go to the pen.

2 Siemen (he would also provide hedge vs Xander leaving or otherwise give us one hell of offensive infield)

3 Schwarber (my interest in him dates back to his IU days)...BUT I HAVE A CAP ON HIM AT $15M, I wouldn't pay him penny more, and again a hedge when $22M JD leaves

4 Relievers are fickle, I just trust Bloom to get the arms necessary without 'big name' relief pitcher. We already 'spent the big-name bullpen budget' on Barnes extension.

 

I don't think we want to sign a pitcher to 6 or 7 years, and if we did, I don't think his name is Stroman.

 

I think we make a strong play for Scherzer on a short term deal, end if we miss out, we go for another older pitcher (Verlander or Kershaw.)

 

We may also go for a #3-4 type, but that depends on our plans for Houck & Whitlock. My guess is one is a starter.

[oldtimer]

My position has not changed. I don't know what our winter budget will be. I have steadily said...

 

If it's near $40M, we will need pretty much all of that to improve our pitching and sign a utility IF'er like maybe Iggy.

 

If we can spend $55-60M, there is room for Scwarber, too, but if I'm spending big on a non pitcher, it wouldn't be on a DH. Having JD already makes it a slam dunk. (Trading JD totally changes my view.)

 

Now, if spending over $50M and we are going to spend $15-20M a year on Schwarber to play 1B/OF, next year and squeeze Kike to 2B or bench Dalbec/Renfroe/Verdugo for a year, I'd rather spend $22-27M on Semien or Baez to play 2B and take over for Bogey, if he bolts after 2022. The $7M more is worth is.

 

My position has not changed.

 

My feeling is that we currently have a competitive team and our prospect list has increased to middle of the pack. Any improvement we make should make us even more competitive, so it isn't critical to try to become a juggernaut in a one year jump. Setting priorities makes sense based on our willingness to spend money.

 

Getting a #2 quality starter is my top priority.

Replacement BP help is priority number 2 although some of that may come from our prospect list.

Defining a FT second baseman is my first non-pitching priority

Settling the JDM/Schwaber situation is my second. Both are good, but I prefer Schwaber based on age, flexibility to fill in at LF or 1st but primarily as a DH. Helps to keep important hitters off the IL.

This regular season was a tough one for our utility players. Let's start 2022 with a higher quality backup option. Possibly that could come from existing players on our 40 man roster at low cost.

 

I see the only major cost of making these moves coming from the acquisition of a #2 starter and possibly a FT 2nd baseman with other costs balanced by removal of existing player contracts

[moonslav59]

My feeling is that we currently have a competitive team and our prospect list has increased to middle of the pack. Any improvement we make should make us even more competitive, so it isn't critical to try to become a juggernaut in a one year jump. Setting priorities makes sense based on our willingness to spend money.

 

Getting a #2 quality starter is my top priority.

Replacement BP help is priority number 2 although some of that may come from our prospect list.

Defining a FT second baseman is my first non-pitching priority

Settling the JDM/Schwaber situation is my second. Both are good, but I prefer Schwaber based on age, flexibility to fill in at LF or 1st but primarily as a DH. Helps to keep important hitters off the IL.

This regular season was a tough one for our utility players. Let's start 2022 with a higher quality backup option. Possibly that could come from existing players on our 40 man roster at low cost.

 

I see the only major cost of making these moves coming from the acquisition of a #2 starter and possibly a FT 2nd baseman with other costs balanced by removal of existing player contracts

 

You said it better than I.

 

Yes, we don't need to spend $60M to try and be a juggernaut, I think we can improve by spending just $30-40M.

 

Much of the salary we lose can be viewed as addition by subtraction.

 

Bloom already built up the 40 man depth and adding 4-5 Rule 5 protectees should further that improvement, so we should actually be limited to just signing 3-5 free agents, unless we trade some players. Last winter, we signed 10 with about $40M. This prettymuch forces quality over quantity.

 

Just what I like!

[Bellhorn04]

 

I don't think we want to sign a pitcher to 6 or 7 years, and if we did, I don't think his name is Stroman.

 

I think we make a strong play for Scherzer on a short term deal, end if we miss out, we go for another older pitcher (Verlander or Kershaw.)

 

Signing Scherzer would likely require outbidding the Dodgers, and an AAV of 30 million or more.

 

Verlander and Kershaw have major health concerns.

[Nick]

$10.000M M Richards

$07.500M Kike

$07.125M Ottavino

$05.000M Perez

$03.100M Renfroe

$03.000M Marwin

$01.200M Sawamura

 

$27M plus Santana....$35M if E Rod walks.

 

I'd say Bloom can do alot with $40M.

 

In theory, Sale, Whitlock, Houck can replace E Rod, Richards and Perez.....not saying that's how it'll go down....

 

With the arrival of Arroyo, our position players pretty much stays intact. IF JD opts out, there's replacement in Schwarber waiting. We'll save money there regardless of who the new DH is.

[Bellhorn04]

$10.000M M Richards

$07.500M Kike

$07.125M Ottavino

$05.000M Perez

$03.100M Renfroe

$03.000M Marwin

$01.200M Sawamura

 

$27M plus Santana....$35M if E Rod walks.

 

I'd say Bloom can do alot with $40M.

 

The question is what he can do about the starting pitching with $40 million or whatever he has to work with. The Richards and Perez signings were not really part of his 2021 successes...

[Bellhorn04]

What are the chances of a 3 year deal with E-Rod for something like $45 mill? It's dicey, I know, but just anything Bloom does on the starting pitching front probably will be.

[mvp 78]

What are the chances of a 3 year deal with E-Rod for something like $45 mill? It's dicey, I know, but just anything Bloom does on the starting pitching front probably will be.

 

What if they paid more and replaced ERod with Syndergaard?

[mvp 78]

With the arrival of Arroyo, our position players pretty much stays intact. IF JD opts out, there's replacement in Schwarber waiting. We'll save money there regardless of who the new DH is.

 

I don't believe Arroyo is a lock for 2b. He can't stay healthy.

 

I'd re-sign Iggy to be the backup IF. Then I'd see if the price tag for any of the SS FA's falls (Baez?) and then work out 2B/SS in Spring Training.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What are the chances of a 3 year deal with E-Rod for something like $45 mill? It's dicey, I know, but just anything Bloom does on the starting pitching front probably will be.

 

He may get it somewhere else, but might like Boston enough to accept an $18 mil Qualifying Offer if he has the confidence to build on this season and shoot for a future multi-year of $20 mil per (if the new CBA and market looks promising for the players).

 

Some will scoff at the notion that ERod could help his contract offers with a great start tonight and another good one in a World Series, if the opportunity presents itself. But responding under pressure on the postseason stage can't hurt, especially to potential suitors wondering if he is fully recovered from his lost Covid year. So far, ERod has had one bad start and one good one in October. A few more good ones also makes the QO easier for Bloom to offer, especially since he'll get a draft pick if ERod declines and signs elsewhere.

 

Sox fans can at least hope the incentive of pitching for a big payoff will drive ERod to a big performance in Game 3.

[oldtimer]

One area where the Sox could improve is team speed and with it perhaps team defense with it. Going back to 1 DH does some of that by definition. Improving at 2nd base could involve a speedier player. Is Siemien that guy? He would be costly and in demand, but what a hitter.

[mvp 78]

He may get it somewhere else, but might like Boston enough to accept an $18 mil Qualifying Offer if he has the confidence to build on this season and shoot for a future multi-year of $20 mil per (if the new CBA and market looks promising for the players).

 

Some will scoff at the notion that ERod could help his contract offers with a great start tonight and another good one in a World Series, if the opportunity presents itself. But responding under pressure on the postseason stage can't hurt, especially to potential suitors wondering if he is fully recovered from his lost Covid year. So far, ERod has had one bad start and one good one in October. A few more good ones also makes the QO easier for Bloom to offer, especially since he'll get a draft pick if ERod declines and signs elsewhere.

 

Sox fans can at least hope the incentive of pitching for a big payoff will drive ERod to a big performance in Game 3.

 

It worked for Pablo Sandoval.

[mvp 78]

One area where the Sox could improve is team speed and with it perhaps team defense with it. Going back to 1 DH does some of that by definition. Improving at 2nd base could involve a speedier player. Is Siemien that guy? He would be costly and in demand, but what a hitter.

 

Semien has a sprint speed of 28.6. The only Sox player faster than that is Duran.

[moonslav59]

Signing Scherzer would likely require outbidding the Dodgers, and an AAV of 30 million or more.

 

Verlander and Kershaw have major health concerns.

 

That's why they'd go for less years.

[moonslav59]

$10.000M M Richards

$07.500M Kike

$07.125M Ottavino

$05.000M Perez

$03.100M Renfroe

$03.000M Marwin

$01.200M Sawamura

 

$27M plus Santana....$35M if E Rod walks.

 

I'd say Bloom can do alot with $40M.

 

In theory, Sale, Whitlock, Houck can replace E Rod, Richards and Perez.....not saying that's how it'll go down....

 

With the arrival of Arroyo, our position players pretty much stays intact. IF JD opts out, there's replacement in Schwarber waiting. We'll save money there regardless of who the new DH is.

 

Not sure we can count on Arroyo to go 100 games at 2B, let alone 150.

 

Yes, in theory, we can replace 3 starters with Sale, Houck & Whitlock, but then we have some gaping holes in an already shaky pen. (Losing Ottavino is not addition by subtraction.)

[Bellhorn04]

What if they paid more and replaced ERod with Syndergaard?

 

Syndergaard is risky as hell too.

 

Not only has he missed the last 2 seasons, but he also missed a pile of time in 2017-2018, making only 32 starts in those 2 seasons combined.

[moonslav59]

The question is what he can do about the starting pitching with $40 million or whatever he has to work with. The Richards and Perez signings were not really part of his 2021 successes...

 

It's hard enough getting good results from signing $20-30M pitchers. If we sign 3-4 pitchers for $5-12M each, we might end up with more pitchers like Richards, Perez, Sawamura and Andriese.

[Bellhorn04]

That's why they'd go for less years.

 

Great, but if they can't take the mound regularly it's not such a big help.

[moonslav59]

I don't believe Arroyo is a lock for 2b. He can't stay healthy.

 

I'd re-sign Iggy to be the backup IF. Then I'd see if the price tag for any of the SS FA's falls (Baez?) and then work out 2B/SS in Spring Training.

 

I would think, if we sign Semien or Baez, we'd pass on Iggy and hope Arrojo can be the utility guy. Maybe he can stay healthy sitting on the bench.

[moonslav59]

Great, but if they can't take the mound regularly it's not such a big help.

 

No doubt, it's a huge risk, but so is signing Stroman to 6-7 years.

 

I think the short contract risks are better.

 

Personally, I'd offer ERod the QO, and if he takes it, look for a $12-15M pitcher. If he says no, look for a $30M Scherzer or two for $35M + Iggy.