A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

Did anyone ever explain why management went out of their way to say they were stretching Whitlock out to be a starter and then almost immediately started pitching him 1 inning at a time?

[mvp 78]

Did anyone ever explain why management went out of their way to say they were stretching Whitlock out to be a starter and then almost immediately started pitching him 1 inning at a time?

 

When did they say they were stretching him out?

[Nick]

SP Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Houck, Whitlock.....total cost $46M, should leave $$ for bullpen.

Bullpen....Sawamura, Taylor, Darwinzon, Barnes, Brasier

 

I'm pretty sure Bloom can fill up the pen. That's what the Rays and Bloom does best.

 

Our position players are set....get Vaz back on club option, if JD bolts, sign Schwarber or another DH....

 

Did I miss anything?

[moonslav59]

When did they say they were stretching him out?

 

I think right when Perez was pitching like our ace (end of May?)

[moonslav59]

SP Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Houck, Whitlock.....total cost $46M, should leave $$ for bullpen.

Bullpen....Sawamura, Taylor, Darwinzon, Barnes, Brasier

 

I'm pretty sure Bloom can fill up the pen. That's what the Rays and Bloom does best.

 

Our position players are set....get Vaz back on club option, if JD bolts, sign Schwarber or another DH....

 

Did I miss anything?

 

First, am I confusing you with someone else who wants us to bring Schwarber back?

 

We also need a utility infielder. Last year, we paid $3M and struck out with Marwin. Can we get Iggy back at $3M?

 

If Bloom has $40M to spend, next winter, he'll have about $20M left, if he signs those two.

 

That's enough to sign 4-5 RP'ers without going huge on anyone, but that's still a bigger chunk spent on the pen than I would prefer.

 

Look, I'm not saying, nor have I ever said, making Houck AND Whitlock starters makes no sense. Of course, it is a good plan with a lot of merit and supporting arguments.

 

The Rays have done a pretty good job building a pen on a low budget, but Bloom did not exactly go low-balling on the pen.

 

He traded for Ottavino ($8.9M). He extended Barnes. He signed Andriese and Sawamura. He moved a $10M and a $6M starter to the pen. One worked for a while.

 

He added 31 pitchers who pitched in relief in the past 2 seasons to the 8 that were already here. That's 39 RP'er in about 220 games. There was a lot of flux, trial and error, and I'm still not sure who our closer is (Whitlock replacing Brasier and Robles?)

 

I can understand your position, and no we should not have to spend large on the pen, but if we have to fill the top 3 slots, like it looks like we need to do, it should cost more than last winter, where he added a #2 (Ottavino) and #6 (Andriese) and a #7 (Sawamura).

 

I'm not sure why keeping Houck or Whitlock in the pen, and signing a SP'er (or bring back ERod) is viewed as any worse a plan than yours.

 

Am I missing something?

[moonslav59]

When did they say they were stretching him out?

 

I found this...

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/04/garrett-whitlock-boston-red-sox-rookie-sensation-has-pitched-just-once-in-past-nine-days-team-wants-him-stretched-out-for-two-three-inning-relief-outings.html

[mvp 78]

I found this...

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/04/garrett-whitlock-boston-red-sox-rookie-sensation-has-pitched-just-once-in-past-nine-days-team-wants-him-stretched-out-for-two-three-inning-relief-outings.html

 

That doesn't say they were stretching him out to be a starter though.

 

But the Red Sox want him stretched out mainly for multiple-inning relief appearances. The team, at least as of right now, is not considering him for spot starts at some point this season.

 

“We haven’t talked about that. Actually it hasn’t been a topic for our group,” Cora said about spot starts.

[moonslav59]

That doesn't say they were stretching him out to be a starter though.

 

But the Red Sox want him stretched out mainly for multiple-inning relief appearances. The team, at least as of right now, is not considering him for spot starts at some point this season.

 

“We haven’t talked about that. Actually it hasn’t been a topic for our group,” Cora said about spot starts.

 

Thanks for pointing that out. I could have sworn I heard "starter" somewhere. I think there was a Globe article.

[Bellhorn04]

That doesn't say they were stretching him out to be a starter though.

 

But the Red Sox want him stretched out mainly for multiple-inning relief appearances. The team, at least as of right now, is not considering him for spot starts at some point this season.

 

“We haven’t talked about that. Actually it hasn’t been a topic for our group,” Cora said about spot starts.

 

Seems like a few rumor-loving fools, including me, seized onto the words "stretched out", taking them to mean he was going to be starting this year.

 

Actually, I think it might have been poster Nick who was leading the crusade on that one, wondering when the hell he was going to be having longer outings.

[moonslav59]

Seems like a few rumor-loving fools, including me, seized onto the words "stretched out", taking them to mean he was going to be starting this year.

 

Actually, I think it might have been poster Nick who was leading the crusade on that one, wondering when the hell he was going to be having longer outings.

 

The weird thing is, they didn't even stretch him into a long man very much at all.

[Bellhorn04]

The weird thing is, they didn't even stretch him into a long man very much at all.

 

I wouldn't say weird. They may have re-evaluated as they went along and decided to use him more like a regular high leverage bullpen guy. He ended up at 73 innings. Seems about right. And he has looked sharp in the postseason. Wouldn't you say they may have handled him just right?

[Nick]

First, am I confusing you with someone else who wants us to bring Schwarber back?

 

We also need a utility infielder. Last year, we paid $3M and struck out with Marwin. Can we get Iggy back at $3M?

 

If Bloom has $40M to spend, next winter, he'll have about $20M left, if he signs those two.

 

That's enough to sign 4-5 RP'ers without going huge on anyone, but that's still a bigger chunk spent on the pen than I would prefer.

 

Look, I'm not saying, nor have I ever said, making Houck AND Whitlock starters makes no sense. Of course, it is a good plan with a lot of merit and supporting arguments.

 

The Rays have done a pretty good job building a pen on a low budget, but Bloom did not exactly go low-balling on the pen.

 

He traded for Ottavino ($8.9M). He extended Barnes. He signed Andriese and Sawamura. He moved a $10M and a $6M starter to the pen. One worked for a while.

 

He added 31 pitchers who pitched in relief in the past 2 seasons to the 8 that were already here. That's 39 RP'er in about 220 games. There was a lot of flux, trial and error, and I'm still not sure who our closer is (Whitlock replacing Brasier and Robles?)

 

I can understand your position, and no we should not have to spend large on the pen, but if we have to fill the top 3 slots, like it looks like we need to do, it should cost more than last winter, where he added a #2 (Ottavino) and #6 (Andriese) and a #7 (Sawamura).

 

I'm not sure why keeping Houck or Whitlock in the pen, and signing a SP'er (or bring back ERod) is viewed as any worse a plan than yours.

 

Am I missing something?

 

What I want and what I get is different. Shortly in couple of weeks or so, we'll know the fate of JD.

 

We'll also know the fate of E Rod soon after the completion of World Series.

 

If I'm a betting man, I would say Sox will pick up Vaz' team option.

 

I want Schwarber because I like to watch him hit. I used to love to watch Joe Namath throw football. Quick release. Not a Jets fan but Namath fan.

 

Sure we can pick up a DH for 2023, but it won't be Schwarber.

 

I have a favorite player and I'm sure you do too. I would pick Schwarber over JD becasue I'm his fan. Do I think Sox will sign him if JD does not opt out? Nope.

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't say weird. They may have re-evaluated as they went along and decided to use him more like a regular high leverage bullpen guy. He ended up at 73 innings. Seems about right. And he has looked sharp in the postseason. Wouldn't you say they may have handled him just right?

 

Exactly, right.

 

My comment was not meant as a criticism, just a curiosity thing.

 

There is no way to prove what I am about to say, but I'm not sure there is NOT a manager alive, who could have cobbled together a working pen like Cora did, this year. Yes, we did have a stretch where nothing worked, and the season was on the brink of being lost for good, but Cora led us out of the dust storm.

 

Think about our pen. We started out with Barnes putting up numbers not seen since Koji, and by season's end he was relegated to mop-up duty at best.

 

Ottavino was our clear number 2 and ended up a scrub.

 

Andries led the pen in IP in April and May, too and was off the roster not long afterwards.

 

Taylor came and went, and went and came.

 

Sawamura looked okay, then bad, then okay...

 

DHern missed time and never really got in stride.

 

Valdez looked great for a while, then had 2-3 huge blow-up games.

 

Brice was in the mix, then gone.

 

Whitlock was about the only steady pen arm we had, all year.

 

We tried Brewer and Bazardo, brought back Workman and added Rios, tried Weber and Brennan. Hell Workman and Rios led the pen in PAs against in July!

 

We brought in Davis, then Robles, who both struggles out of the gate to the point of about everyone wanting them both DFA'd. Soon Robles was our go-to guy. He almost led the pen in PAs against in August!

 

We converted Richards and Perez to the pen, and Richards actually carried us for a long stretch. Richards led the pen in IP in August and Sept.

 

We tried Gonsalves, Peacock and Espinal. We tried Schreiber, Crawford, Seabold and Ort.

 

We saw Brasier come out of the woodwork to carry the pen on his back for a while, just as Robles did, at times, too.

 

We saw Houck give a few masterful pen games.

 

Then, the playoffs started and almost everything flipped and morphed in different directions.

 

All of a sudden, Houck and Pivetta are the rocks. Almost 16 innings given to us by those two combined with just 5 ERs allowed.

 

Barnes, Ottavino, Davis, Richards and Taylor are back and giving us scoreless outings, why Brasier and Robles struggle.

 

The pen has been upside down, down side up and sideways, all year, but Cora has kept it together.

 

Kudos to Alex!

[moonslav59]

What I want and what I get is different. Shortly in couple of weeks or so, we'll know the fate of JD.

 

We'll also know the fate of E Rod soon after the completion of World Series.

 

If I'm a betting man, I would say Sox will pick up Vaz' team option.

 

I want Schwarber because I like to watch him hit. I used to love to watch Joe Namath throw football. Quick release. Not a Jets fan but Namath fan.

 

Sure we can pick up a DH for 2023, but it won't be Schwarber.

 

I have a favorite player and I'm sure you do too. I would pick Schwarber over JD becasue I'm his fan. Do I think Sox will sign him if JD does not opt out? Nope.

 

I am 100% behind Schwarber over JD going forward, even if JD goes nutty the next two series.

 

I just don't think we afford to skimp on pitching to have 2 DHs or squeeze Dalbec or our current OF out of playing time, next year.

 

I love KS. I also like his influence on other players and his attitude.

 

Maybe we trade JD or Dalbec or a corner OF'er.

 

[Larry Cook]

I am 100% behind Schwarber over JD going forward, even if JD goes nutty the next two series.

 

I just don't think we afford to skimp on pitching to have 2 DHs or squeeze Dalbec or our current OF out of playing time, next year.

 

I love KS. I also like his influence on other players and his attitude.

 

Maybe we trade JD or Dalbec or a corner OF'er.

 

 

I think schwarber is on the first flight out of here after the parade!

 

However, I hope our big free agent splash is chris Taylor. That should help solidify the outfield!

 

Then hang’em Chaim can sign a bunch of under the radar pitchers and make a couple trades that cause us all to say “why” in March, and by august we say “what a great trade”!

[moonslav59]

I think schwarber is on the first flight out of here after the parade!

 

However, I hope our big free agent splash is chris Taylor. That should help solidify the outfield!

 

Then hang’em Chaim can sign a bunch of under the radar pitchers and make a couple trades that cause us all to say “why” in March, and by august we say “what a great trade”!

 

Our OF is fine.

 

Verdugo in LF

Kike in CF

Renfroe in RF

[dgalehouse]

Ordinarily , I would like to see both Houck and Whitlock in the rotation . But the way baseball is played these days , the bullpen is absolutely vital . So , it is a tough call on how best to utilize them.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Ordinarily , I would like to see both Houck and Whitlock in the rotation . But the way baseball is played these days , the bullpen is absolutely vital . So , it is a tough call on how best to utilize them.

 

Old school methods of debuting young arms in the pen before transitioning to the rotation are no longer tried and true; it's all true/false now, no multiple choice. Old pal Daniel Bard bounced around and finally bounced back... but seeing if he could start seemed worth a try at the time. Papelbon found his niche at the back end and never wanted to start again.

 

I'd have to be a real oxymoron to hope to use the word "consistency" in the same sentence with "relievers". Guys thrive, burn out, find it again, then blow it... eventually losing jobs, before getting new life in another org -- to start their mercurial cycle all over again. Look at Kimbrel: bad in the NL, then great in the first half of '21, returns to the AL and bottoms out again.

[moonslav59]

Old school methods of debuting young arms in the pen before transitioning to the rotation are no longer tried and true; it's all true/false now, no multiple choice. Old pal Daniel Bard bounced around and finally bounced back... but seeing if he could start seemed worth a try at the time. Papelbon found his niche at the back end and never wanted to start again.

 

I'd have to be a real oxymoron to hope to use the word "consistency" in the same sentence with "relievers". Guys thrive, burn out, find it again, then blow it... eventually losing jobs, before getting new life in another org -- to start their mercurial cycle all over again. Look at Kimbrel: bad in the NL, then great in the first half of '21, returns to the AL and bottoms out again.

 

A starter who goes 2 innings, lets up 2 runs in the 3rd, then goes 2 more and lets up 1 run in the 6th, gets a quality start and a pat on the back.

 

A RP'er who lets up a single run 2 or 3 out of every 5 or 6 outings is thought of as inconsistent.

[dgalehouse]

What I am trying to say is ; is a guy like Whitlock more valuable to the team as a starter , who goes maybe six innings every five days , or in the bullpen , where he could be used in big spots several days a week?

[moonslav59]

What I am trying to say is ; is a guy like Whitlock more valuable to the team as a starter , who goes maybe six innings every five days , or in the bullpen , where he could be used in big spots several days a week?

 

Usually, I'd say the 160-200 IP guy is way more valuable than the 50-70 IP guy, even if most of those 60 innings are high leverage, but I'm not so sure in Whitlock and Houck's cases. One maybe, but not both, IMO.

[notin]

What I am trying to say is ; is a guy like Whitlock more valuable to the team as a starter , who goes maybe six innings every five days , or in the bullpen , where he could be used in big spots several days a week?

 

You're absolutely right.

 

The problem is, while SP might not be as important as it once was, it is still as expensive as ever. And relief pitchers are significantly cheaper. So it is extremely possible one or both of Houck and Whitlock end up in the rotation...

[moonslav59]

You're absolutely right.

 

The problem is, while SP might not be as important as it once was, it is still as expensive as ever. And relief pitchers are significantly cheaper. So it is extremely possible one or both of Houck and Whitlock end up in the rotation...

 

If one does not, I'll be shocked.

 

The cheapest route would be to not offer ERod the QO and move both Houck and Whitlock into the rotation.

 

Eoavldi

Sale

Houck

Whitlock

Pivetta

Seabold

 

Then, go and try to find some top pen arms without paying too much.

[notin]

Usually, I'd say the 160-200 IP guy is way more valuable than the 50-70 IP guy, even if most of those 60 innings are high leverage, but I'm not so sure in Whitlock and Houck's cases. One maybe, but not both, IMO.

 

While I get your point, I was listening to a couple talking heads on MLB radio on Sirius, and they were conjecturing that while starters throw many fewer IP than maybe 40 or so years ago they were still throwing more pitches. and I can see this as true because pitchers just throw a lot harder than they did even 10-15 yeas ago, and therefore hitters simply find more pitches more difficult to hit and lay off of them. The valuation of the BB as a skill rather than a matter of happenstance also could be a factor, as GM's started preferring OBP to BA.

 

So even with fewer IP from pitchers, it is possible they need even more durability than some of the Stalwarts of the Past that they get compared to unfavorably. Maybe those comps are flat out wrong in many cases...

[Bellhorn04]

While I get your point, I was listening to a couple talking heads on MLB radio on Sirius, and they were conjecturing that while starters throw many fewer IP than maybe 40 or so years ago they were still throwing more pitches. and I can see this as true because pitchers just throw a lot harder than they did even 10-15 yeas ago, and therefore hitters simply find more pitches more difficult to hit and lay off of them. The valuation of the BB as a skill rather than a matter of happenstance also could be a factor, as GM's started preferring OBP to BA.

 

There are also a ton more strikeouts. Add that to the walks, and you're going to have deeper counts and more pitches thrown.

[moonslav59]

There are also a ton more strikeouts. Add that to the walks, and you're going to have deeper counts and more pitches thrown.

 

What was interesting about the start of Barnes' season was how he was pitching more innings but throwing less pitches than previous seasons.

 

Then, the wheels came off.

[Bellhorn04]

What was interesting about the start of Barnes' season was how he was pitching more innings but throwing less pitches than previous seasons.

 

Then, the wheels came off.

 

What we'll never know is the impact Stickygate had on certain pitchers.

[moonslav59]

What we'll never know is the impact Stickygate had on certain pitchers.

 

Agreed, but what made the start of his season so remarkable?

 

Did they not have sticky stuff in previous years?

 

My point was more about how he did what he did before and not about why the wheels came off.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed, but what made the start of his season so remarkable?

 

Did they not have sticky stuff in previous years?

 

Yes, they did. But some pitchers got off to incredibly good starts this year. Chapman, for example had an ERA of 0.39 on June 6, with an absurd 43 K's in 23 innings. After Stickygate he fell off a cliff.

 

We know that they also changed the baseballs this year, reportedly with higher seams. So I would speculate that the combination of state of the art sticky stuff and higher seams had a lot to do with some of the amazing starts.

[moonslav59]

Yes, they did. But some pitchers got off to incredibly good starts this year. Chapman, for example had an ERA of 0.39 on June 6, with an absurd 43 K's in 23 innings. After Stickygate he fell off a cliff.

 

We know that they also changed the baseballs this year, reportedly with higher seams. So I would speculate that the combination of state of the art sticky stuff and higher seams had a lot to do with some of the amazing starts.

 

Sounds like you nailed it.