A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

NO, and NO.

 

How much would YOU be willing to fork out?

[Old Red]

How much would YOU be willing to fork out?

 

It’s not what I would be willing to fork out, but what JH would be willing to fork out, and what the players would be willing to take.

[jad]

It’s not what I would be willing to fork out, but what JH would be willing to fork out, and what the players would be willing to take.

 

Really? I don't know; this sounds controversial to me.

[notin]

Fair enough. Soto played 122 games in the minors, Franco 215. Mayer may not make the bigs at age 20, but if he develops as advertised, would it be such a shocker if he has a cup of coffee before turning 22?

 

The bigger question is: does anyone think Bloom and Co. don't project lineups a few years into the future? And if they anticipate Mayer at short in '24 or '25, are they planning on breaking the bank for Correa and then asking him to move positions before he's even 30? Or do they just move Mayer to third and reacquire Stephen Drew?

 

It would be phenomenal stupid to build a roster to hold a place for a player who might not even see MLB for 3-4 years. Casas was drafted out of high school 4 years ago and has yet to debut.

 

A lot can happen between now and Mayer’s debut. He may not develop. His defense might not be as advertised. He might get injured a lot. He might need to be dealt for pitching.

 

If the Sox have too many shortstops in 2026, there will be options then. But they will need someone at shortstop in 2023, 2024 and 2025 first…

[mvp 78]

NO, and NO.

 

TOO and BAD, BYE BYE BYE FELICIA!

[mvp 78]

It would be phenomenal stupid to build a roster to hold a place for a player who might not even see MLB for 3-4 years. Casas was drafted out of high school 4 years ago and has yet to debut.

 

A lot can happen between now and Mayer’s debut. He may not develop. His defense might not be as advertised. He might get injured a lot. He might need to be dealt for pitching.

 

If the Sox have too many shortstops in 2026, there will be options then. But they will need someone at shortstop in 2023, 2024 and 2025 first…

 

Yes, go find someone for 3-5 years if you want to replace Xander, not 8-10.

[mvp 78]

s***, pay Correa 3 X 125M.

[notin]

Yes, go find someone for 3-5 years if you want to replace Xander, not 8-10.

 

That’s possible.

 

So you think signing a 31yo shortstop for 5 years is better than signing a 27yo shortstop for 10?

 

At what point do peak years matter?

[Old Red]

TOO and BAD, BYE BYE BYE FELICIA!

 

Do you really think the Sox would give Bogey a 10 year contract?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It would be phenomenal stupid to build a roster to hold a place for a player who might not even see MLB for 3-4 years. Casas was drafted out of high school 4 years ago and has yet to debut.

 

A lot can happen between now and Mayer’s debut. He may not develop. His defense might not be as advertised. He might get injured a lot. He might need to be dealt for pitching.

 

If the Sox have too many shortstops in 2026, there will be options then. But they will need someone at shortstop in 2023, 2024 and 2025 first…

 

It would be ARodian ridiculous to give out Mookie money to anyone not Mookie if they weren't planning on playing him at his best position at least through his prime.

 

That is, unless good buddy Alex Cora has had conversations with Carlos about converting (before the last three months of off-limit contact, of course). If that's the case, I'm all in -- as I was a year ago on signing Correa when available. If the same conversation was had with Bogaerts and he also agreed to move positions, I'd rather keep him, because we already know he can handle Boston, loves it here, and doesn't have to transition from villain to hero.

 

Meanwhile, all industry speculation about the Yankees not signing Correa centers on Volpe, their top shortstop prospect not yet ready for showtime. Instead, a popular stopgap is A.Simmons... but no one is saying that's stupid.

[moonslav59]

I'd give Devers 10+ years (close to $300M), but Mookie was worth more.

 

I'd give Bogey 5-7 years, but no more than $25M per year, which I think would not be enough to keep him after this year.

[Old Red]

I'd give Devers 10+ years (close to $300M), but Mookie was worth more.

 

I'd give Bogey 5-7 years, but no more than $25M per year, which I think would not be enough to keep him after this year.

 

Why do you think Mookie was worth more? D? I’m not disagreeing, but it will be interesting to see when all is said, and done on who will have the better stats between Mookie, and Raffy. 7 years would really be stretching it to still get productivity out of Bogey.

[notin]

It would be ARodian ridiculous to give out Mookie money to anyone not Mookie if they weren't planning on playing him at his best position at least through his prime.

 

That is, unless good buddy Alex Cora has had conversations with Carlos about converting (before the last three months of off-limit contact, of course). If that's the case, I'm all in -- as I was a year ago on signing Correa when available. If the same conversation was had with Bogaerts and he also agreed to move positions, I'd rather keep him, because we already know he can handle Boston, loves it here, and doesn't have to transition from villain to hero.

 

Meanwhile, all industry speculation about the Yankees not signing Correa centers on Volpe, their top shortstop prospect not yet ready for showtime. Instead, a popular stopgap is A.Simmons... but no one is saying that's stupid.

 

I would. Volpe has only played A ball. No one should ever even think about a prospect until they reach AA…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I would. Volpe has only played A ball. No one should ever even think about a prospect until they reach AA…

 

Quote from today's Boston Globe article about the possibility of the Sox signing Trevor Story: "One scenario is that Story could serve as a stopgap, giving top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer time to develop before potentially being ready to command the position in a big league uniform."

[mvp 78]

Why do you think Mookie was worth more? D? I’m not disagreeing, but it will be interesting to see when all is said, and done on who will have the better stats between Mookie, and Raffy. 7 years would really be stretching it to still get productivity out of Bogey.

 

Bogey is still 29. He’s going to age like a fine wine.

[mvp 78]

Quote from today's Boston Globe article about the possibility of the Sox signing Trevor Story: "One scenario is that Story could serve as a stopgap, giving top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer time to develop before potentially being ready to command the position in a big league uniform."

 

Will Sox be playing all the away games at Coors?

[notin]

Quote from today's Boston Globe article about the possibility of the Sox signing Trevor Story: "One scenario is that Story could serve as a stopgap, giving top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer time to develop before potentially being ready to command the position in a big league uniform."

 

 

Story isn’t looking at a Lindor contract, but Brandon Crawford got a 6 year $75mill contract at about the same age. What kind of stopgap deal would Story take? (Reportedly he wants 6 years $150mill.)

 

Doable? I do like his defense, but I think I’d move on Paul DeJong from St. Louis, who have reportedly soured on him, before I gave Story that kind of deal…

[moonslav59]

Why do you think Mookie was worth more? D? I’m not disagreeing, but it will be interesting to see when all is said, and done on who will have the better stats between Mookie, and Raffy. 7 years would really be stretching it to still get productivity out of Bogey.

 

Yes, way better D. Baserunning, too

[Old Red]

Yes, way better D. Baserunning, too

 

Yes but I think Raffy is a better hitter, and will put up more HR, RBI, and hits before he’s done.

[moonslav59]

Yes but I think Raffy is a better hitter, and will put up more HR, RBI, and hits before he’s done.

 

If I had to bet, I'd bet on Devers bat, but it's real close.

 

Ages 21-24:

 

Devers: .279 102 337 in 2104 PAs (.279 34 112 per 162 w 45 2B+3B and 6 SB)

.338 OBP/.513 SLG/ .850 OPS

 

M Betts: .292 78 310 in 2309 PAs (.292 25 99 per 162 w 50 2B+3B & 26 SB)

.351 OBP/.488 SLG/.839 OPS

 

[moonslav59]

Yes but I think Raffy is a better hitter, and will put up more HR, RBI, and hits before he’s done.

 

The RBIs are affected by the OBPs of then people in front of you.

 

MB bats first a lot.

[Old Red]

The RBIs are affected by the OBPs of then people in front of you.

 

MB bats first a lot.

 

I’m very well aware of this, but I just think Raffy is a better pure hitter.

[Old Red]

If I had to bet, I'd bet on Devers bat, but it's real close.

 

Ages 21-24:

 

Devers: .279 102 337 in 2104 PAs (.279 34 112 per 162 w 45 2B+3B and 6 SB)

.338 OBP/.513 SLG/ .850 OPS

 

M Betts: .292 78 310 in 2309 PAs (.292 25 99 per 162 w 50 2B+3B & 26 SB)

.351 OBP/.488 SLG/.839 OPS

 

 

I knew you would come up with stats.

[moonslav59]

I’m very well aware of this, but I just think Raffy is a better pure hitter.

 

I’m driving the Devers forever bandwagon. Climb aboard!

[Old Red]

I’m driving the Devers forever bandwagon. Climb aboard!

 

I just hope he is not to expensive for John Henry’s taste.

[notin]

I just hope he is not to expensive for John Henry’s taste.

 

 

Despite some complaints on this board, in reality Henry isn’t known among MLB owners for his cheapness…

[Old Red]

Despite some complaints on this board, in reality Henry isn’t known among MLB owners for his cheapness…

 

What he spent in the past is one thing, but up till now the last two years has been mostly bargain basement pickups. Betts is gone, and Bogey, and Raffy will be the next real test, or any other big FA signing for that matter.

[moonslav59]

What he spent in the past is one thing, but up till now the last two years has been mostly bargain basement pickups. Betts is gone, and Bogey, and Raffy will be the next real test, or any other big FA signing for that matter.

 

It's been a rebuild 2-3 years. I won't use the "C" word for fear of setting off some sensitive posters.

 

It's also hard to ignore big extensions, when considering the timing of big FA signings.

 

Among the top 120 Total Contract Value Signings in MLB history, the Sox have 8.

 

These 8 players were signed under Henry's watch:

 

19. Price '16-'22

43. AGon '12-'20

47. Sale '20-'24

51. Crawford '11-'17

76. Bogey '20-'25

86. Pedey '14-'21

86. JDM '18-'22

107. Pablito '15-'19

 

(Other big ones include Dice-K, Rusney, HRam, JD Drew, Beckett, paying Renteria about $40M for 1 year and the cost of Moncada.)

 

Henry does have a history of stepping back from spending big and then wham, he jumps back in big time. It's interesting to note that out of these top 8 contracts, two began in 2020 (not that long ago), and 7 of them srated after or ran up to 2019 or beyond.

 

I remember people thinking the winter before 2013 was too much bargain hunting and not enough big splash moves, and that worked out okay.

Edited March 12, 2022 by moonslav59

[Noles_1335]

Not the whole picture; Bryant's a guy who can start at any outfield position and third base and first base and DH...

Just curious as to what Devers will come in looking like… after the lockout and his usual offseason weight issues… it might take a couple months for him to drop that winter bulk he typically carries

[moonslav59]

What he spent in the past is one thing, but up till now the last two years has been mostly bargain basement pickups. Betts is gone, and Bogey, and Raffy will be the next real test, or any other big FA signing for that matter.

 

The Bogey & Sale extensions began in 2020, but yes, no big FA signings.