A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[notin]

"Cliff year" - you made that up, didn't you?

 

I went to high school with a guy named Cliff Yeare…

[Bellhorn04]

I went to high school with a guy named Cliff Yeare…

 

That was actually moon.

[Old Red]

I've agreed 2021 was not a cliff year, but almost all of us felt we still had some rebuilding to do to get to strong competitiveness status.

 

Yes, many teams go through this and are not considered in full blown "rebuild mode," but look at the roster beyond the big 6 (Bogey, Devers, Sale, ERod, Eovaldi and JD), plus big questions lingered around 2-4 of those 6. Sale was not expected back until July. ERod was a big Q mark. JD, was a bit of one, and Eovaldi ended up pitching his first full season in 6 or 7 years.

 

Hardly anybody had faith in Pivetta, Richards, Perez and the whole pen- top to bottom. (Whitlock was a god send.)

 

Many felt Kike could not play FT, Marwin was a joke, Dalbec was a huge Q mark as late as July, and the Cordero experiment went horribly wrong. Who thought Renfroe would do that well?

 

BTW, many bad teams have a "core" of 6 players, and it's the other 20 that make them bad. The O's have Mullins, Means, Mancini, Mountcastle, Hays and Santander. They are clearly in worse than rebuild mode.

 

On May 31st, Marwin was 7th on the team in PAs- just 4 away from Kike and 9 away from Vaz, who was under .650. Dalbec was 9th and under .650. Cordero was 10th in PAs. Richards was 2nd in IP, Pivetta 3rd, Perez 5th, Andries 6th and the staff as a whole was generally thought to be over performing.

 

 

Throw out the 2020season, and go from 2019 to 2021. Would you still have thought that 2021 would not be a decent team. To much stock by some were put into 2020.

[moonslav59]

"Cliff year" - you made that up, didn't you?

 

I'm not sure who called it a cliff, first, but I'm not hiding I thought we'd have a cliff. I was thinking more like 2020-2022, or if we spent more maybe 2021-2023.

 

I've admitted I was wrong about how quickly we could rebuild the farm and the bottom 18-24 slots on the 40 man roster, under the more difficult rules the league had established to punish spending and winning teams. At the time, we were both.

[Noles_1335]

Of the SP’s available…. If Grienke is the one we waste payroll on, Bloom would need a good right hook to the throat!

[jacksonianmarch]

Strahm and Diekman to the Sox. Very lefty pen. Strange

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Strahm and Diekman to the Sox. Very lefty pen. Strange

 

I'm happy to have any new decent relievers. Last year's pen lefties were Darwinzon H., who they wouldn't trust, and then Davis, who they couldn't trust.

 

The most important thing about adding quality to the bullpen is that it frees up Houck or Whitlock or both to start... because they're better than any of the old hurt horses signed last fall.

 

Some people want to count on Sale improving or Eovaldi staying the same, but having fresh arms with stuff is just as much a key -- it's also why Toronto just signed three starting pitchers in their primes longterm.

[moonslav59]

Throw out the 2020season, and go from 2019 to 2021. Would you still have thought that 2021 would not be a decent team. To much stock by some were put into 2020.

 

The 2019 team was mostly dismantled by 2021, so yea, I still saw the 2021 team as a rebuild or "bridge" team. Did you see my post about 30 players on our 40 man roster were not even on the 40 man roster at the end of 2019? How is that nit viewed as a major rebuild? That was not some routine and ongoing replenishment of the roster all teams go through, virtually non-stop. It was major as major can get!

 

We added 3 players to the 40 man during the 2020 season: Pivetta, Arroyo & Houck. We filled 21 slots AFTER 2020!!! TWENTY-ONE!!! We used about 40 players to find the 21 that stuck by the time we reached the present. Call me wrong for thinking that is a major rebuild, even after 2020, but it was. It's not an insane position- not that anyone called it that. Not one big name was added to the roster after 2019. Sure, some grew into a pretty big name, but we were not done rebuilding by opening day 2021, IMO.

 

We had Pivetta, Perez and Richards as 3 of our starters, and nobody, even me, who was higher on Pivetta than just about anyone, felt he'd be a very good starter.

 

Our pen was headed by your favorite RP'er, Barnes (sarcasm alert) and Ottavino. Yes, Houck looked promising, and a guy named Whitlock tore up ST'ing, but really? Andriese and company?

 

Few expected Dalbec to do well, even as late as July. Many felt Kike was a gloried utility man not up to playing 155 games. Arroyo, Cordero and Marwin were expected to fill 2 key roles. Some felt JD was in serious decline. Our defense was a joke from day one.

 

Maybe we all see the word "rebuild" differently, and no, I did not expect us to be anywhere near as bad as 2020, but I still felt we had a long way to go to get to top 5 or 6 in the league status, which is what I consider strong contention.

 

The vast majority of outside additions to the 2021 roster were one year deals. That hints at seeing 2021 as a rebuild or bridge year. We added Duran, Schwarber, Robles, Davis, Shaw and Iggy during 2021, and only Duran & Davis remain on the 40 man. While having 10 open slots on the 40 man roster after 2021 is not a real large number, some of the 30 carrying over to 2022 are questionable to various degrees:

 

Hudson Potts

Jeisson Rosario

Ronaldo Hernandez

Eduard Bazardo

Jonathan Arauz

Phillips Valdez

Connor Wong

Jay Groome

and even Bryan Mata, DHern, Brasier, Plawecki, Seabold and Duran.

 

Don't get me wrong. I think Bloom has done a great job rebuilding the 40 man roster and the farm beyond the 40, but we still have a ways to go to approach the rosters of 2013, 2007, 2004 and the great 2018 roster.

[Bellhorn04]

Strahm and Diekman to the Sox. Very lefty pen. Strange

 

Which prompted me to check Diekman's career splits:

 

LH 652

RH 666

 

Pretty close.

[moonslav59]

I'm happy to have any new decent relievers. Last year's pen lefties were Darwinzon H., who they wouldn't trust, and then Davis, who they couldn't trust.

 

The most important thing about adding quality to the bullpen is that it frees up Houck or Whitlock or both to start... because they're better than any of the old hurt horses signed last fall.

 

Some people want to count on Sale improving or Eovaldi staying the same, but having fresh arms with stuff is just as much a key -- it's also why Toronto just signed three starting pitchers in their primes longterm.

 

What are the chances both Sale and Eovaldi have seasons like Eovaldi's 2021 season?

 

I like how both look, but I'm guessing we might be lucky to see one do as well as that.

[Bellhorn04]

The 2019 team was mostly dismantled by 2021, so yea, I still saw the 2021 team as a rebuild or "bridge" team. Did you see my post about 30 players on our 40 man roster were not even on the 40 man roster at the end of 2019? How is that nit viewed as a major rebuild? That was not some routine and ongoing replenishment of the roster all teams go through, virtually non-stop. It was major as major can get!

 

The average fan cares little about the back end of the 40 man roster. You are not the average fan.

[moonslav59]

The average fan cares little about the back end of the 40 man roster. You are not the average fan.

 

I'm not sure what this has to do with the fact that we almost totally rebuilt the 2019 roster and added 12 new faces to our current 40 man roster from opening day 2021 with at least another 7 or 8 of those carrying over from the opening day 40 man roster on the short list for possible DFAs, this year.

 

We could possibly see 18-20 new members to the 40 man roster from opening day 2021.

 

We are still rebuilding.

[Old Red]

The 2019 team was mostly dismantled by 2021, so yea, I still saw the 2021 team as a rebuild or "bridge" team. Did you see my post about 30 players on our 40 man roster were not even on the 40 man roster at the end of 2019? How is that nit viewed as a major rebuild? That was not some routine and ongoing replenishment of the roster all teams go through, virtually non-stop. It was major as major can get!

 

We added 3 players to the 40 man during the 2020 season: Pivetta, Arroyo & Houck. We filled 21 slots AFTER 2020!!! TWENTY-ONE!!! We used about 40 players to find the 21 that stuck by the time we reached the present. Call me wrong for thinking that is a major rebuild, even after 2020, but it was. It's not an insane position- not that anyone called it that. Not one big name was added to the roster after 2019. Sure, some grew into a pretty big name, but we were not done rebuilding by opening day 2021, IMO.

 

We had Pivetta, Perez and Richards as 3 of our starters, and nobody, even me, who was higher on Pivetta than just about anyone, felt he'd be a very good starter.

 

Our pen was headed by your favorite RP'er, Barnes (sarcasm alert) and Ottavino. Yes, Houck looked promising, and a guy named Whitlock tore up ST'ing, but really? Andriese and company?

 

Few expected Dalbec to do well, even as late as July. Many felt Kike was a gloried utility man not up to playing 155 games. Arroyo, Cordero and Marwin were expected to fill 2 key roles. Some felt JD was in serious decline. Our defense was a joke from day one.

 

Maybe we all see the word "rebuild" differently, and no, I did not expect us to be anywhere near as bad as 2020, but I still felt we had a long way to go to get to top 5 or 6 in the league status, which is what I consider strong contention.

 

The vast majority of outside additions to the 2021 roster were one year deals. That hints at seeing 2021 as a rebuild or bridge year. We added Duran, Schwarber, Robles, Davis, Shaw and Iggy during 2021, and only Duran & Davis remain on the 40 man. While having 10 open slots on the 40 man roster after 2021 is not a real large number, some of the 30 carrying over to 2022 are questionable to various degrees:

 

Hudson Potts

Jeisson Rosario

Ronaldo Hernandez

Eduard Bazardo

Jonathan Arauz

Phillips Valdez

Connor Wong

Jay Groome

and even Bryan Mata, DHern, Brasier, Plawecki, Seabold and Duran.

 

Don't get me wrong. I think Bloom has done a great job rebuilding the 40 man roster and the farm beyond the 40, but we still have a ways to go to approach the rosters of 2013, 2007, 2004 and the great 2018 roster.

 

I agree with mostly everything, but I guess we just see rebuild a little different. Sale, ERod, Evol, Barnes, and then the O of RaffY, Bogey, JD, Duggy, and Vaz just seems like a lot of talent to not expect a winning team, or called a rebuild, but I see where your coming from With lots of coming, and going of players.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure what this has to do with the fact that we almost totally rebuilt the 2019 roster and added 12 new faces to our current 40 man roster from opening day 2021 with at least another 7 or 8 of those carrying over from the opening day 40 man roster on the short list for possible DFAs, this year.

 

We could possibly see 18-20 new members to the 40 man roster from opening day 2021.

 

We are still rebuilding.

 

I think maybe we're always rebuilding, and that's just the way baseball is now. It's a churn.

[moonslav59]

I think maybe we're always rebuilding, and that's just the way baseball is now. It's a churn.

 

No doubt, but there are varying degrees.

 

It's been a long time since we last signed so many 1 year deals and had this much roster turnover.

[jacksonianmarch]

I say strange because now you have five lefties in your bullpen. When you consider that most of the teams that you were going to be facing in your division are heavily right handed, it makes one scratch their head. Diekman has decent splits, but typically it is up to the hitter. But there’s no madness to Bloom’s moves. For all we know, Darwinzon is part of a package for something larger that will be made public soon

[Old Red]

No doubt, but there are varying degrees.

 

It's been a long time since we last signed so many 1 year deals and had this much roster turnover.

 

Next year could be even more for the roster turnover.

[moonslav59]

So, we had 1 roster slot and just signed two RP'ers:

 

Matt Strahm LHP for $3M/1

Last 4 seasons:

1.17 WHIP

9.1 K/9

2.1 BB/9

1.4 HR/9

 

Jake Diekman LHP for "multi-years at ???$$$

Last 4 seasons:

1.36 WHIP

12.0 K/9

5.3 BB/9 (OUCH!)

0.8 HR/9

 

Who is on the DFA short list?

 

My list (which is never right):

1. Hudson Potts

2. Jeisson Rosario

3. Jonathan Aruaz

4. Eduard Bazardo

5. A Davis or K Crawford

6. Wong or R Hernandez

[jacksonianmarch]

So, we had 1 roster slot and just signed two RP'ers:

 

Matt Strahm LHP for $3M/1

Last 4 seasons:

1.17 WHIP

9.1 K/9

2.1 BB/9

1.4 HR/9

 

Jake Diekman LHP for "multi-years at ???$$$

Last 4 seasons:

1.36 WHIP

12.0 K/9

5.3 BB/9 (OUCH!)

0.8 HR/9

 

Who is on the DFA short list?

 

My list (which is never right):

1. Hudson Potts

2. Jeisson Rosario

3. Jonathan Aruaz

4. Eduard Bazardo

5. A Davis or K Crawford

6. Wong or R Hernandez

 

I smell a trade. If you consider Wacha your long man and Whitlock your 5, here are the guys under contract for your pen

 

Houck

Strahm

Diekman

Hernandez

Barnes

Davis

Taylor

Brasier

Wacha

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a Barnes trade, honestly. The reliever market is dry as a bone outside of Jansen, and he’s elite with long term deal needed. Eat a few mil, get a good return and watch Barnes thrive without the pressure

[moonslav59]

I say strange because now you have five lefties in your bullpen. When you consider that most of the teams that you were going to be facing in your division are heavily right handed, it makes one scratch their head. Diekman has decent splits, but typically it is up to the hitter. But there’s no madness to Bloom’s moves. For all we know, Darwinzon is part of a package for something larger that will be made public soon

 

You do have to look at how well the lefties do vs RHBs, but you have a point.

 

As of right now, our best 3 RP'ers are all RH'd:

 

Houck

Whitlock

Barnes

 

Brasier and Sawamura will be favorites to make the 26 man roster, so that's 5 RHPs in the pen that may be in the top 7.

 

The lefties mostly look like bottom of the pen types. Taylor, Strahm and Diekman might be top 8 in the pen.

 

Davis is only a favorite to make the 26 man roster, because he's out of options.

 

DHern has never lived up to the hype and can't get his walk rate under control. Valdez and Bazardo, both RHPs might win a slot from a lefty at some point.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What are the chances both Sale and Eovaldi have seasons like Eovaldi's 2021 season?

 

I like how both look, but I'm guessing we might be lucky to see one do as well as that.

 

We're telepathic. I just said this to my son yesterday, but speaking in odds, as in the odds of this scenario is much higher than say, Atlanta and Houston having good rotations again.

 

Last year's pennant winners each made the World Series without their top starters and will be getting them back: Soroka and McCullers; notice I didn't even mention Verlander, another Sale-type wildcard (until now).

[moonslav59]

I smell a trade. If you consider Wacha your long man and Whitlock your 5, here are the guys under contract for your pen

 

Houck

Strahm

Diekman

Hernandez

Barnes

Davis

Taylor

Brasier

Wacha

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a Barnes trade, honestly. The reliever market is dry as a bone outside of Jansen, and he’s elite with long term deal needed. Eat a few mil, get a good return and watch Barnes thrive without the pressure

 

I think Wacha or Hill might move to the pen, but for now, I see our rotation as being...

 

Sale

Eovaldi

Pivetta

Hill

Wacha

(Paxton late in the season)

 

Our pen from best to worst:

R Houck

R Whitlock

R Barnes

L Diekman

L Taylor

R Brasier

R Sawamura/ L Strahm/L Davis

(L DHern in AAA)

 

That's 5 of 9 being RHPs and the 4 lefties all being in the bottom 5 or 6.

[Old Red]

I smell a trade. If you consider Wacha your long man and Whitlock your 5, here are the guys under contract for your pen

 

Houck

Strahm

Diekman

Hernandez

Barnes

Davis

Taylor

Brasier

Wacha

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a Barnes trade, honestly. The reliever market is dry as a bone outside of Jansen, and he’s elite with long term deal needed. Eat a few mil, get a good return and watch Barnes thrive without the pressure

 

I see Whacka as the starter, and Whitlock in the pen. Barnes, or no Barnes can’t be counted on.

[moonslav59]

We're telepathic. I just said this to my son yesterday, but speaking in odds, as in the odds of this scenario is much higher than say, Atlanta and Houston having good rotations again.

 

Last year's pennant winners each made the World Series without their top starters and will be getting them back: Soroka and McCullers; notice I didn't even mention Verlander, another Sale-type wildcard (until now).

 

McCullers was second in IP for the Astros, last year, so I'm not sure you can say just missing the WS means they made it without him.

 

We lost Richards, Perez and ERod. Two might be considered additions by subtractions, and bot Perez and Richards lost their rotation slots, but it's hard to see Wacha, Hill and later, Paxton as vast improvements, especially thinking of who replaces ER0d.

 

My hope was we added a SP'er capable of keeping Houck and Whitlock in the pen, but sadly, that was not to be. One or both will likely be needed in the rotation, at some point in 2022.

[jacksonianmarch]

Totally forgot about Sawamura. Yeah, Bloom is gonna swing a deal from your relief corps

[Bellhorn04]

No doubt, but there are varying degrees.

 

It's been a long time since we last signed so many 1 year deals and had this much roster turnover.

 

Some of that comes from Bloom's philosophy, I think.

[dgalehouse]

Results are what matters. This is Bloom 's third year in charge. The first year, we finished in the cellar. A crazy year , so let's give him a pass on it. Last year we finished tied for second , eight games out of first. In the final series , it took a sweep of the Nationals , a team deep in the tank , to avoid finishing fourth and missing the post season again. We did pretty well in the post season , winning the play- in versus the Yankees and " upsetting" the Rays in the ALDS before falling short against the Astros in the ALCS. That is a realistic , no spin , no excuses recap of Bloom's first two seasons. Is it reasonable to expect the Sox to win, or at least come close to winning , the A.L. East in this his third year in charge?

[moonslav59]

Some of that comes from Bloom's philosophy, I think.

 

Bloom has done a good job building up the farm and 40 man depth, but with limited funding and so many slots to fill it's a wonder we won 92 games, last year.

 

It was not about how little he had to spend, IMO, as it was about the amount of holes he needed to fill. He actually spent quite a bit, last year and will again, this year, but almost exclusively on 1 year deals.

 

The added $20M on the lux tax gives him more wiggle room, but there is still not enough to spend on a $25M+ player, without going over the tax line.

 

IMO, e will be allowed to go over, soon, perhaps next winter. I think the top brass still views the roster as not quite being at the point where a couple big expenditures would make us a top 3-5 contender, and that is the time they are waiting for. In hindsight, one could argue we were 2 big players away, in 2021, and adding Schwarber nearly got us there.

 

The additions we made, so far this winter, hints that this is still team waiting and slowly building to the point where we will pounce.

 

$12M JBJ (1-2 yrs of team control)

$10M Paxton (1-3 years of team control through options)

$7M Vaz option (last year)

$7M Wacha (1 yr)

$5M R Hill

$??? Diekman

$3M Strahm

 

Does this look like additions made by a team done rebuilding or just filling out role slots to supplement the top 17-19 players on the 26?

 

These guys are expected to play a lot, except for Paxton. They are filling the shows of ERod, Ottavino and some others not nearly as good as these two, but who played a lot.

 

[notin]

I smell a trade. If you consider Wacha your long man and Whitlock your 5, here are the guys under contract for your pen

 

Houck

Strahm

Diekman

Hernandez

Barnes

Davis

Taylor

Brasier

Wacha

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a Barnes trade, honestly. The reliever market is dry as a bone outside of Jansen, and he’s elite with long term deal needed. Eat a few mil, get a good return and watch Barnes thrive without the pressure

 

More likely they just let Darwinzon Hernandez work on his control in Worcester…

[moonslav59]

Totally forgot about Sawamura. Yeah, Bloom is gonna swing a deal from your relief corps

 

We need to add to the RP pool, not take away.

 

Having DHern start the year in AAA is not a sign we are deep enough to trade RP'ers away.

 

Even if we add McHugh, I could see us not trading away DHern or Davis.